[Setup] Bus Service
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Jingle For Whom the Bell Trolls
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callforjudgement Microprocessor
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It might be hard to run the numbers for it, as it's a fairly complex strategy to model, but this is the sort of setup where hypocopping might well be the best play. (Each player claims a Cop result at the start of each day; the actual Cop tells the truth, everyone else just makes one up based on reads. It means that if a Cop dies there are still useful results. The downside is that the scum often get to PoE some players as not being the Cop, meaning the Cop can sometimes die faster.)scum· scam · seam · team · term · tern · torn ·town- mutantdevle
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mutantdevle Mafia Scum
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I guess that's fairIn post 24, mutantdevle wrote:Huh, so you think that it's scum sided? Even despite the fact that town will probably always have someone confirmed each day?
but giving them anything more just seems wrong given they already dominate the night phase imo<Embrace The Void>
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this is true tbhIn post 27, mutantdevle wrote:Hypocopping is probably even stronger in this setup tbh. The mafia wouldn’t be able to remove someone from their PoE pool because they don’t know if someone is lying or just had their target switched with someone of the opposite alignment.<Embrace The Void>
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Kinda, but if I have extra time I'll play around with it.In post 26, callforjudgement wrote:It might be hard to run the numbers for it,This is a Parachute.- Jingle
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Starting with scum strats:
Variable definitions:
n= # living players
x= # living scum
Spoiler: Strongman only
Spoiler: Investigation Confusion only
Spoiler: Both
Cop claimed: Scum tries to kill cop, Busdriver can't generate additional innocents.
Busdriver claimed: Scum tries to kill Busdriver, Busdriver can't generate additional innocents.
Both claimed: Scum tries to kill Cop, Busdriver can't generate additional innocents.
Chance of successful protection:
n % To Scum To Town
4 67 17 50
5 50 10 40
6 40 7 33
7 33 5 29
8 28 4 25
9 25 3 22
10 22 2 20
11 20 2 18
12 18 2 17
Hypoclaim chance to out either PR without the other being outed is negligible.
Hypoclaim chance to out Bus Driver with the cop being outed doesn't matter, as the cop is the priority kill for scum.
Hypoclaim chance to out as not cop with Bus Driver claimed: 50% per individual per day.
Hypoclaim unlikely to get cop killed any earlier than not hypoclaiming, therefore all players should hypoclaim both cop and redirections.
Claims should happen on run up or on the day before LYLO.
My only concern with the setup now is that it looks like a win more setup (If mafia is winning, they're likely to continue winning, but if they lose one player their odds decrease dramatically.) Otherwise, this looks balanced.
I'm not gonna bother writing a program for expected win rates, because there's too many subjective values for them to actually mean anything important.This is a Parachute.- mutantdevle
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