[Setup] Bus Service

Jingle · Post Post #25 (ISO) » Wed Dec 12, 2018 11:53 am

Okay I should be able to run numbers tomorrow.

Viable town strats to run:

Cop Claim
BD Claim
Both Claim
Neither Claim

Viable scum strats to run:

Scum kill strongmanned-ish.
Investigate messed with.
Both.

Does anyone see any other strats I should account for?

callforjudgement · Post Post #26 (ISO) » Wed Dec 12, 2018 4:07 pm

It might be hard to run the numbers for it, as it's a fairly complex strategy to model, but this is the sort of setup where hypocopping might well be the best play. (Each player claims a Cop result at the start of each day; the actual Cop tells the truth, everyone else just makes one up based on reads. It means that if a Cop dies there are still useful results. The downside is that the scum often get to PoE some players as not being the Cop, meaning the Cop can sometimes die faster.)

mutantdevle · Post Post #27 (ISO) » Wed Dec 12, 2018 10:12 pm

Hypocopping is probably even stronger in this setup tbh. The mafia wouldn’t be able to remove someone from their PoE pool because they don’t know if someone is lying or just had their target switched with someone of the opposite alignment.

Gamma Emerald · Post Post #28 (ISO) » Thu Dec 13, 2018 6:28 am

In post 24, mutantdevle wrote:Huh, so you think that it's scum sided? Even despite the fact that town will probably always have someone confirmed each day?

I guess that's fair
but giving them anything more just seems wrong given they already dominate the night phase imo

Gamma Emerald · Post Post #29 (ISO) » Thu Dec 13, 2018 6:29 am

In post 27, mutantdevle wrote:Hypocopping is probably even stronger in this setup tbh. The mafia wouldn’t be able to remove someone from their PoE pool because they don’t know if someone is lying or just had their target switched with someone of the opposite alignment.

this is true tbh

Jingle · Post Post #30 (ISO) » Thu Dec 13, 2018 9:06 am

In post 26, callforjudgement wrote:It might be hard to run the numbers for it,

Kinda, but if I have extra time I'll play around with it.

Jingle · Post Post #31 (ISO) » Thu Dec 13, 2018 11:16 am

Starting with scum strats:

Variable definitions:

n= # living players
x= # living scum

Spoiler: Strongman only

Spoiler: Investigation Confusion only

Spoiler: Both

Cop claimed: Scum tries to kill cop, Busdriver can't generate additional innocents.
Busdriver claimed: Scum tries to kill Busdriver, Busdriver can't generate additional innocents.
Both claimed: Scum tries to kill Cop, Busdriver can't generate additional innocents.

Chance of successful protection:

n % To Scum To Town
4 67 17 50
5 50 10 40
6 40 7 33
7 33 5 29
8 28 4 25
9 25 3 22
10 22 2 20
11 20 2 18
12 18 2 17

Hypoclaim chance to out either PR without the other being outed is negligible.
Hypoclaim chance to out Bus Driver with the cop being outed doesn't matter, as the cop is the priority kill for scum.
Hypoclaim chance to out as not cop with Bus Driver claimed: 50% per individual per day.

Hypoclaim unlikely to get cop killed any earlier than not hypoclaiming, therefore all players should hypoclaim both cop and redirections.

Claims should happen on run up or on the day before LYLO.

My only concern with the setup now is that it looks like a win more setup (If mafia is winning, they're likely to continue winning, but if they lose one player their odds decrease dramatically.) Otherwise, this looks balanced.

I'm not gonna bother writing a program for expected win rates, because there's too many subjective values for them to actually mean anything important.

mutantdevle · Post Post #32 (ISO) » Sun Dec 23, 2018 5:31 am

This game has gone into sign-ups in the open queue. Does anyone have any last minute suggestions or concerns?