[SETUP] Lost Identity

[BNL]

3 Exiles (Mafia)
8 Citizens (Town)

Pregame, a unique identity number from 1-11 is generated for every player in the game. Citizens are told their ID numbers, while Exiles are

not

told their ID numbers.
ID numbers are not revealed on flip.

I feel like this is going to be a claiming strategy game, and due to the nature of the game it's going to be swingy depending on whether scum hit with their claim or not. I'm also unsure what the best numbers are for this setup; 2:7 seems like a town sweep but 3:6 seems too much for scum. Regardless, thoughts?

[BBmolla]

What about playerlist order, everyone one at a time claims a number they are not. Once at end of the playerlist repeat.

I assume this would out at least one mafia by the end of it.

[callforjudgement]

Well, Mafia can't be outright

outed

, all you get is 1v1s when players counterclaim each other.

One obvious scum strategy is to each pick a distinct number in the 1-11 range (randomly but with no duplicates between scum), and act all game as though they had that number. Even if all three duplicate town numbers, scum still win 12.5% of the time (if they win all three of the resulting 1v1s; note that scum using this strategy will counterclaim a townie who claims their randomly picked number, so you can't use claim timing to distinguish scum from town in a counterclaim). Scum's victory chances are somewhat better if at least one of them happens to pick an unused number, thus becoming immune to being counterclaimed.

Some information for anyone wanting to do an EV calculation for strategies that work along these lines: there are 165 possible combinations of three numbers scum could pick.
1 of them has none of the scum counterclaimable.
24 of them have one of the scum counterclaimable.
84 of them have two of the scum counterclaimable.
56 of them have three of the scum counterclaimable.

[RadiantCowbells]

This actually feels scumsided

[Awoo]

EV is around 31%. pretty bad tbh

[BNL]

Hmm... What about making it 3:10 with ID numbers up to 13 instead?
I'm just not a fan about scum being able to insta lose here

[northsidegal]

i don't mean to be rude, but is this fun? i imagine that it's certainly interesting from a setup design and EV perspective and all, but i can't imagine that it would actually be a very fun setup to play in (regardless of balance). maybe that's just me, though.

[BNL]

You're right, I've realised this is not going to be fun.
I guess it should be 2:5 so it doesn't waste people's time

[northsidegal]

i guess what i mean is that a big game like that where it has the potential to start with either all scum in a 1v1 or as an unexpected 3:8 mountainous seems a bit likely to be unsatisfying. as a smaller game where it's meant to only be a few days or something i think it makes a lot more sense.


i'm certain that the idea could be tweaked a bit. what would you say the idea scenario or the "hook" you want to create is? a game based around scum being in 1v1s with town isn't inherently unfun, certainly.

[BNL]

I guess this should have been "EV" rather then "Setup" as the only thing going is the claiming strategy

[northsidegal]

it's not a bad idea for a game at all! i just personally think that it might need a few changes

[BNL]

I feel like this kinda thing may be incorporated into certain games
Like for example there is a public role pool of 11 roles, 8 of which are selected for town roles

[callforjudgement]

Right, I viewed this as a commentary on what happens when an Open has too many power roles, rather than as a setup worth running. It's something that's worth thinking about in the abstract because people often try to design Opens like that.