[EV] Safehouse Mafia Scaled Up

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[EV] Safehouse Mafia Scaled Up

Post Post #0 (ISO) » Sun Mar 17, 2019 8:03 am

Post by Awoo »

viewtopic.php?f=84&t=31453

Hey, this is cool. I wonder what the numbers would be like for a more generalized version so that the game could be played with different numbers?

1 Innocent child that cannot be sent to the safehouse.
T townies.
M mafia.

floor(total players / 3) people can be sent to the safehouse before the catastrophic event happens.

If there are mafia in the safehouse after the catastrophic event, the game becomes a vanilla nightless game (because its hard to get away with murder in a crowded nuclear shelter).

Spoiler: results
3 players: 1 mafia, 1 days, EV = 0.5
5 players: 2 mafia, 1 days, EV = 0.5
7 players: 1 mafia, 2 days, EV = 0.625
9 players: 2 mafia, 3 days, EV = 0.448 -- same result as FakeGod got (minus floating point memes + rounding)
11 players: 2 mafia, 3 days, EV = 0.571
13 players: 3 mafia, 4 days, EV = 0.418
15 players: 3 mafia, 5 days, EV = 0.481
17 players: 3 mafia, 5 days, EV = 0.56
19 players: 4 mafia, 6 days, EV = 0.462
21 players: 4 mafia, 7 days, EV = 0.504
23 players: 5 mafia, 7 days, EV = 0.457
25 players: 5 mafia, 8 days, EV = 0.488
27 players: 5 mafia, 9 days, EV = 0.519
29 players: 6 mafia, 9 days, EV = 0.479
31 players: 6 mafia, 10 days, EV = 0.505
33 players: 6 mafia, 11 days, EV = 0.53
35 players: 7 mafia, 11 days, EV = 0.494
37 players: 7 mafia, 12 days, EV = 0.516
39 players: 7 mafia, 13 days, EV = 0.537
41 players: 8 mafia, 13 days, EV = 0.506
43 players: 8 mafia, 14 days, EV = 0.525
45 players: 8 mafia, 15 days, EV = 0.542
47 players: 9 mafia, 15 days, EV = 0.515
49 players: 9 mafia, 16 days, EV = 0.531
51 players: 9 mafia, 17 days, EV = 0.547
53 players: 10 mafia, 17 days, EV = 0.522
55 players: 10 mafia, 18 days, EV = 0.536
57 players: 10 mafia, 19 days, EV = 0.55
59 players: 11 mafia, 19 days, EV = 0.528
61 players: 11 mafia, 20 days, EV = 0.54
63 players: 11 mafia, 21 days, EV = 0.552
65 players: 12 mafia, 21 days, EV = 0.532
67 players: 12 mafia, 22 days, EV = 0.544
69 players: 12 mafia, 23 days, EV = 0.555
71 players: 13 mafia, 23 days, EV = 0.536
73 players: 13 mafia, 24 days, EV = 0.546
75 players: 13 mafia, 25 days, EV = 0.556
77 players: 14 mafia, 25 days, EV = 0.539
79 players: 14 mafia, 26 days, EV = 0.549
81 players: 14 mafia, 27 days, EV = 0.558
83 players: 15 mafia, 27 days, EV = 0.542
85 players: 15 mafia, 28 days, EV = 0.551
87 players: 15 mafia, 29 days, EV = 0.559
89 players: 16 mafia, 29 days, EV = 0.544
91 players: 16 mafia, 30 days, EV = 0.553
93 players: 16 mafia, 31 days, EV = 0.561
95 players: 17 mafia, 31 days, EV = 0.546
97 players: 17 mafia, 32 days, EV = 0.554
99 players: 17 mafia, 33 days, EV = 0.562
101 players: 18 mafia, 33 days, EV = 0.548
103 players: 18 mafia, 34 days, EV = 0.555
105 players: 18 mafia, 35 days, EV = 0.562
107 players: 19 mafia, 35 days, EV = 0.55
109 players: 19 mafia, 36 days, EV = 0.557
111 players: 19 mafia, 37 days, EV = 0.563
113 players: 20 mafia, 37 days, EV = 0.551
115 players: 20 mafia, 38 days, EV = 0.558
117 players: 20 mafia, 39 days, EV = 0.564
119 players: 21 mafia, 39 days, EV = 0.553
121 players: 21 mafia, 40 days, EV = 0.559
123 players: 21 mafia, 41 days, EV = 0.565
125 players: 22 mafia, 41 days, EV = 0.554
127 players: 22 mafia, 42 days, EV = 0.56
129 players: 22 mafia, 43 days, EV = 0.565
131 players: 23 mafia, 43 days, EV = 0.555
133 players: 23 mafia, 44 days, EV = 0.56
135 players: 23 mafia, 45 days, EV = 0.566
137 players: 24 mafia, 45 days, EV = 0.556
139 players: 24 mafia, 46 days, EV = 0.561
141 players: 24 mafia, 47 days, EV = 0.566
143 players: 25 mafia, 47 days, EV = 0.557
145 players: 25 mafia, 48 days, EV = 0.562
147 players: 25 mafia, 49 days, EV = 0.567
149 players: 26 mafia, 49 days, EV = 0.558
151 players: 26 mafia, 50 days, EV = 0.562
153 players: 26 mafia, 51 days, EV = 0.567


Oh no :( seems like the setup doesn't scale up very well as I described it. The reason the numbers keep going up and get locked at ~56% EV is because the game wants to add more mafia to balance itself, but it can't because adding another mafia would allow mafia to outnumber town at some point in the game if town keep getting lynched and NK'd, making an invalid setup.

Solution 1: Add an infinite number of innocent children to the setup, so that mafia never gets majority over the town and the EV isn't effected.
Solution 2: Rethink the number of people that get sent to the safehouse over the course of the game so that the game can scale up better. Perhaps sending the square root of the amount of players rounded down to the safehouse would be more reasonable.
Last edited by Awoo on Sun Mar 17, 2019 8:09 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Post Post #1 (ISO) » Sun Mar 17, 2019 8:08 am

Post by Awoo »

Safehouse mafia: Few will survive

In this variant, only floor(sqrt(total players)) can make it to the safehouse before the catastrophic event happens.

Spoiler: results
3 players: 1 mafia, 1 days, EV = 0.5
5 players: 1 mafia, 2 days, EV = 0.375
7 players: 1 mafia, 2 days, EV = 0.625
9 players: 2 mafia, 3 days, EV = 0.448
11 players: 2 mafia, 3 days, EV = 0.571
13 players: 3 mafia, 3 days, EV = 0.5
15 players: 4 mafia, 3 days, EV = 0.455
17 players: 4 mafia, 4 days, EV = 0.456
19 players: 4 mafia, 4 days, EV = 0.52
21 players: 5 mafia, 4 days, EV = 0.474
23 players: 5 mafia, 4 days, EV = 0.523
25 players: 6 mafia, 5 days, EV = 0.471
27 players: 6 mafia, 5 days, EV = 0.513
29 players: 7 mafia, 5 days, EV = 0.481
31 players: 7 mafia, 5 days, EV = 0.516
33 players: 8 mafia, 5 days, EV = 0.488
35 players: 8 mafia, 5 days, EV = 0.518
37 players: 8 mafia, 6 days, EV = 0.525
39 players: 9 mafia, 6 days, EV = 0.499
41 players: 9 mafia, 6 days, EV = 0.524
43 players: 10 mafia, 6 days, EV = 0.501
45 players: 11 mafia, 6 days, EV = 0.479
47 players: 11 mafia, 6 days, EV = 0.502
49 players: 11 mafia, 7 days, EV = 0.517
51 players: 12 mafia, 7 days, EV = 0.497
53 players: 12 mafia, 7 days, EV = 0.517
55 players: 13 mafia, 7 days, EV = 0.499
57 players: 13 mafia, 7 days, EV = 0.517
59 players: 14 mafia, 7 days, EV = 0.5
61 players: 15 mafia, 7 days, EV = 0.485
63 players: 15 mafia, 7 days, EV = 0.501
65 players: 15 mafia, 8 days, EV = 0.507
67 players: 16 mafia, 8 days, EV = 0.492
69 players: 16 mafia, 8 days, EV = 0.507
71 players: 17 mafia, 8 days, EV = 0.493
73 players: 17 mafia, 8 days, EV = 0.507
75 players: 18 mafia, 8 days, EV = 0.494
77 players: 18 mafia, 8 days, EV = 0.507
79 players: 19 mafia, 8 days, EV = 0.495
81 players: 19 mafia, 9 days, EV = 0.504
83 players: 20 mafia, 9 days, EV = 0.492
85 players: 20 mafia, 9 days, EV = 0.504
87 players: 21 mafia, 9 days, EV = 0.493
89 players: 21 mafia, 9 days, EV = 0.505
91 players: 22 mafia, 9 days, EV = 0.494
93 players: 22 mafia, 9 days, EV = 0.505
95 players: 23 mafia, 9 days, EV = 0.494
97 players: 23 mafia, 9 days, EV = 0.505
99 players: 24 mafia, 9 days, EV = 0.495
101 players: 24 mafia, 10 days, EV = 0.499
103 players: 24 mafia, 10 days, EV = 0.509
105 players: 25 mafia, 10 days, EV = 0.5
107 players: 25 mafia, 10 days, EV = 0.509
109 players: 26 mafia, 10 days, EV = 0.5
111 players: 27 mafia, 10 days, EV = 0.491
113 players: 27 mafia, 10 days, EV = 0.5
115 players: 28 mafia, 10 days, EV = 0.491
117 players: 28 mafia, 10 days, EV = 0.5
119 players: 29 mafia, 10 days, EV = 0.492
121 players: 29 mafia, 11 days, EV = 0.498
123 players: 29 mafia, 11 days, EV = 0.507
125 players: 30 mafia, 11 days, EV = 0.498
127 players: 30 mafia, 11 days, EV = 0.507
129 players: 31 mafia, 11 days, EV = 0.499
131 players: 31 mafia, 11 days, EV = 0.506
133 players: 32 mafia, 11 days, EV = 0.499
135 players: 32 mafia, 11 days, EV = 0.506
137 players: 33 mafia, 11 days, EV = 0.499
139 players: 33 mafia, 11 days, EV = 0.506
141 players: 34 mafia, 11 days, EV = 0.499
143 players: 34 mafia, 11 days, EV = 0.506
145 players: 35 mafia, 12 days, EV = 0.496
147 players: 35 mafia, 12 days, EV = 0.503
149 players: 36 mafia, 12 days, EV = 0.496
151 players: 36 mafia, 12 days, EV = 0.503
153 players: 37 mafia, 12 days, EV = 0.496
155 players: 37 mafia, 12 days, EV = 0.503
157 players: 38 mafia, 12 days, EV = 0.496
159 players: 38 mafia, 12 days, EV = 0.503
161 players: 39 mafia, 12 days, EV = 0.497
163 players: 39 mafia, 12 days, EV = 0.503
165 players: 40 mafia, 12 days, EV = 0.497
167 players: 40 mafia, 12 days, EV = 0.503
169 players: 41 mafia, 13 days, EV = 0.495
171 players: 41 mafia, 13 days, EV = 0.501
173 players: 42 mafia, 13 days, EV = 0.496
175 players: 42 mafia, 13 days, EV = 0.501
177 players: 43 mafia, 13 days, EV = 0.496
179 players: 43 mafia, 13 days, EV = 0.502
181 players: 44 mafia, 13 days, EV = 0.496
183 players: 44 mafia, 13 days, EV = 0.502
185 players: 45 mafia, 13 days, EV = 0.496
187 players: 45 mafia, 13 days, EV = 0.502
189 players: 46 mafia, 13 days, EV = 0.496
191 players: 46 mafia, 13 days, EV = 0.502
193 players: 47 mafia, 13 days, EV = 0.496
195 players: 47 mafia, 13 days, EV = 0.502
197 players: 47 mafia, 14 days, EV = 0.505
199 players: 48 mafia, 14 days, EV = 0.499


Much more balanced. But also a lot more people die in the catastrophe. I think that's better for the flavor anyways :P

Most humanly playable setups:

9 players: 2 mafia, 3 days, EV = 0.448
13 players: 3 mafia, 3 days, EV = 0.5
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