[SETUP] Monty Hall Mafia
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[SETUP] Monty Hall Mafia
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On D1, everyone votes, using majority voting, on a player to select. Then, the mafia must reveal one player as town who is not the selected player. Then there's a single lynch, town wins if it's on mafia, mafia wins if it's on town.It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!- RadiantCowbells
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popsofctown SheSurvivor
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Town selects their most unanimous townread, mafia reveal what they perceive as the runner up global townread (which is kinda tricky and interesting) as the open door, then town has a 66% chance to win if their unanimous townread was correct. But they are sorting among 3 of the remaining players they were unsurest about, and also their unanimous townread had a chance to be wrong.
Seems pretty balanced to me and like a fun marathon setup."Let us say that you are right and there are two worlds. How much, then, is this 'other world' worth to you? What do you have there that you do not have here? Money? Power? Something worth causing the prince so much pain for?'"
"Well, I..."
"What? Nothing? You would make the prince suffer over... nothing?"- Irrelephant11
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Based on the Monty hall problem,
Select A
Townfirm B
C, D, and E are now more likely to be scum than A mechanically
Agree it’s probably townsidedHey all! Excited and nervous to play my first game with you!
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popsofctown SheSurvivor
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If you select a townish A, the information "C, D, and E are more likely to be scum than A mechanically" loses value because it's redundant information.
If you select a scummy A, the information "C, D, and E are more likely to be scum than A mechanically" is more valuable but your B IC is going to a be a lower value clear than the previous strategy.
It doesn't seem as cut and dry to me.
I think maybe optimal play is actually to pick a nullread A??? I'm lost now."Let us say that you are right and there are two worlds. How much, then, is this 'other world' worth to you? What do you have there that you do not have here? Money? Power? Something worth causing the prince so much pain for?'"
"Well, I..."
"What? Nothing? You would make the prince suffer over... nothing?"- RadiantCowbells
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Like if MariaR and Creature were universal townreads you should probably select Creature. That way if both end up cleared it's a very reliable 2/3 and if someone else gets cleared you have 50/50 on Maria's buddy if wrong and 100% if she's town.2019 stats: Town WR 76.7%, overall WR 81.667%, 1 scum defeat involving a major mod error in lylo vs 8 scum wins.-
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Not Known 15 Mafia Scum
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... unless both are scum.In post 7, RadiantCowbells wrote:Like if MariaR and Creature were universal townreads you should probably select Creature. That way if both end up cleared it's a very reliable 2/3 and if someone else gets cleared you have 50/50 on Maria's buddy if wrong and 100% if she's town.- RadiantCowbells
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Something_Smart He/himSomewhat_Balanced
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Interestingly if town's top two townreads are scum, town may stand a better chance of winning than if the top is scum and the second is town, because people may wonder why the second strongest townread was not IC'd.It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!- RadiantCowbells
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- Something_Smart
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Something_Smart He/himSomewhat_Balanced
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In general, yeah you're right.
But I imagine if this setup were played a bunch of times (and it's an ideal marathon/F2F setup so that could happen), a meta would probably develop where scum reveal the second townread most, but not all of the time, and when they aren't revealed there will justifiably be paranoia on them.
Vengeful is a good setup but it has pretty much no way for scum to use WIFOM strategically, except for bussing the GF. I'd play this in a marathon or F2F for a change of pace.It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!- BNL
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BNL Micro Madness
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This is cool
Day 1 acts like a doctor for town that acts like preventing the Mafia's 'kill', except it only flips and not kills.- BNL
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BNL Micro Madness
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And because of the Monty Hall problem the setup's EV is higher than 50%
Prob protected player is scum = 40%
Total prob other players are scum = 160%
Once one player is revealed, the probablility any other player is scum is about 53.3%
EV = 53.3% - BNL
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