[SETUP] Monty Hall Mafia

[Something_Smart]

2 Mafia Lovers
3 VT's

On D1, everyone votes, using majority voting, on a player to select. Then, the mafia must reveal one player as town who is not the selected player. Then there's a single lynch, town wins if it's on mafia, mafia wins if it's on town.

[RadiantCowbells]

think that game is in practice heavily townsided.

[popsofctown]

Town selects their most unanimous townread, mafia reveal what they perceive as the runner up global townread (which is kinda tricky and interesting) as the open door, then town has a 66% chance to win if their unanimous townread was correct. But they are sorting among 3 of the remaining players they were unsurest about, and also their unanimous townread had a chance to be wrong.

Seems pretty balanced to me and like a fun marathon setup.

[Irrelephant11]

Based on the Monty hall problem,

Select A
Townfirm B
C, D, and E are now more likely to be scum than A mechanically

Agree it’s probably townsided

[popsofctown]

If you select a townish A, the information "C, D, and E are more likely to be scum than A mechanically" loses value because it's redundant information.
If you select a scummy A, the information "C, D, and E are more likely to be scum than A mechanically" is more valuable but your B IC is going to a be a lower value clear than the previous strategy.

It doesn't seem as cut and dry to me.

I think maybe optimal play is actually to pick a nullread A??? I'm lost now.

[RadiantCowbells]

always optimal to pick towniest a.

[RadiantCowbells]

Or well

Whichever person gives the least info if flipped town

[RadiantCowbells]

Like if MariaR and Creature were universal townreads you should probably select Creature. That way if both end up cleared it's a very reliable 2/3 and if someone else gets cleared you have 50/50 on Maria's buddy if wrong and 100% if she's town.

[Not Known 15]

Like if MariaR and Creature were universal townreads you should probably select Creature. That way if both end up cleared it's a very reliable 2/3 and if someone else gets cleared you have 50/50 on Maria's buddy if wrong and 100% if she's town.

... unless both are scum.

[RadiantCowbells]

well then you suck at this game and probably weren't winning anyway!

this means you as a collective playing in that game having double scum as your top townreads, not NK15 specifically.

[Something_Smart]

Interestingly if town's top two townreads are scum, town may stand a better chance of winning than if the top is scum and the second is town, because people may wonder why the second strongest townread was not IC'd.

[RadiantCowbells]

I don't think that's generally how towns work

people are... slow to reconsider their townreads.

[Something_Smart]

In general, yeah you're right.

But I imagine if this setup were played a bunch of times (and it's an ideal marathon/F2F setup so that could happen), a meta would probably develop where scum reveal the second townread most, but not all of the time, and when they aren't revealed there will justifiably be paranoia on them.

Vengeful is a good setup but it has pretty much no way for scum to use WIFOM strategically, except for bussing the GF. I'd play this in a marathon or F2F for a change of pace.

[BNL]

This is cool

Day 1 acts like a doctor for town that acts like preventing the Mafia's 'kill', except it only flips and not kills.

[BNL]

And because of the Monty Hall problem the setup's EV is higher than 50%

Prob protected player is scum = 40%
Total prob other players are scum = 160%
Once one player is revealed, the probablility any other player is scum is about 53.3%

EV = 53.3%