[SETUP + EV] Double Day Vengeful Scum

[Skygazer]

Double Day Vengeful Scum

Roles

:

• Townie x 9
  
  
• Vengeful Mafioso x 2

Mechanics

:

• Daystart
  
• There are two lynches each day
  
• Once the first lynch has been decided, that player's role is revealed and the second half of the Day continues with a reset vote count and deadline
  
• If a Vengeful Mafioso is lynched, they must kill a Townie
  
• Lynches are compulsory; if no lynch is achieved by the deadline, the player with the most votes will be lynched (in the event of a tie, the player that reached the most votes first will be lynched)
  
• Mafia kills and venge-shots are compulsory; a kill list must be submitted during pre-game for the event that an action is not submitted

[Skygazer]

The EV Calculations

Random Lynching Town Win Rate:

44.1 %

D1 9:2

[9/11] Town lynch

D2 8:2

[8/10] Town lynch

D3 6:2 after kill

[6/8] Town lynch

D4 5:2

[5/7] Town lynch

D5 3:2 after kill

[3/5] Town lynch (#SW)
[2/5] Scum lynch

D6 2:1 after venge

[2/3] Town lynch (#SW)
[1/3] Scum lynch (#TW)

0.04675324675

= 9/11 * 8/10 * 6/8 * 5/7 * 2/5 * 1/3
[2/7] Scum lynch

D5 3:1 after venge and kill

[3/4] Town lynch

D6 2:1

[2/3] Town lynch (#SW)
[1/3] Scum lynch (#TW)

0.03506493506

= 9/11 * 8/10 * 6/8 * 2/7 * 3/4 * 1/3
[1/4] Scum lynch (#TW)

0.03506493506

= 9/11 * 8/10 * 6/8 * 2/7 * 1/4
[2/8] Scum lynch

D4 5:1 after venge

[5/6] Town lynch

D5 3:1 after kill

[3/4] Town lynch

D6 2:1

[2/3] Town lynch (#SW)
[1/3] Scum lynch (#TW)

0.03409090909

= 9/11 * 8/10 * 2/8 * 5/6 * 3/4 * 1/3
[1/4] Scum lynch (#TW)

0.03409090909

= 9/11 * 8/10 * 2/8 * 5/6 * 1/4
[1/6] Scum lynch (#TW)

0.02727272727

= 9/11 * 8/10 * 2/8 * 1/6
[2/10] Scum lynch

D3 6:1 after venge and kill

[6/7] Town lynch

D4 5:1

[1/6] Town lynch

D5 3:1 after kill

[3/4] Town lynch

D6 2:1

[2/3] Town lynch (#SW)
[1/3] Scum lynch (#TW)

0.02922077922

= 9/11 * 2/10 * 6/7 * 5/6 * 3/4 * 1/3
[1/4] Scum lynch (#TW)

0.02922077922

= 9/11 * 2/10 * 6/7 * 5/6 * 1/4
[1/6] Scum lynch (#TW)

0.02337662337

= 9/11 * 2/10 * 6/7 * 1/6
[1/7] Scum lynch (#TW)

0.02337662337

= 9/11 * 2/10 * 1/7
[2/11] Scum lynch

D2 8:1 after venge

[8/9] Town lynch

D3 6:1 after kill

[6/7] Town lynch

D4 5:1

[5/6] Town lynch

D5 3:1 after kill

[3/4] Town lynch

D6 2:1

[2/3] Town lynch (#SW)
[1/3] Scum lynch (#TW)

0.02886002886

= 2/11 * 8/9 * 6/7 * 5/6 * 3/4 * 1/3
[1/4] Scum lynch (#TW)

0.02886002886

= 2/11 * 8/9 * 6/7 * 5/6 * 1/4
[1/6] Scum lynch (#TW)

0.02308802308

= 2/11 * 8/9 * 6/7 * 1/6
[1/7] Scum lynch (#TW)

0.02308802308

= 2/11 * 8/9 * 1/7
[1/9] Scum lynch (#TW)

0.0202020202

= 2/11 * 1/9

(Key: #TW is a town win and #SW is a scum win)

0.44163059158

= 0.0202020202 + 0.02308802308 + 0.02308802308 + 0.02886002886 + 0.02886002886 + 0.02337662337 + 0.02337662337 + 0.02922077922 + 0.02922077922 + 0.02727272727 + 0.03409090909 + 0.03409090909 + 0.03506493506 + 0.03506493506 + 0.04675324675

[Skygazer]

The compulsive lynches and kills keep the game away from states where scum can insta-win by being lynched or where the game reaches MYLO. With the current numbers it'll always come down to a 3-player lylo.

The double-day mechanic helps keep strong town players around for longer, helping to mitigate the drawbacks of mountainous. The venge-shot makes scum's lives a little easier if one of them is lynched.

44% is pretty alright imo; towns have only been getting better lately. It might be interesting to replace one of the townies with a weak PR of some sorts (IC?) to bump the percentage up but I feel like the limited number of scum-kills would help town a ton considering scum would have trouble dealing with strong townies.

(Let me know if I fucked up the math; I haven't taken stat in a while and it wouldn't surprise me if I made a tired mistake!)

[popsofctown]

It takes more effort and willpower to check math than to wander around the open setup forum and poke at breaking strategies and stuff. But if you actually go to queue this I'll do it.

44% should be puhlenty for today's towns. If you really needed to nudge against scum I'd restrict the vengekill to either onwagon or offwagon. I don't think you'll need to though. I think powerful day 1 play can be a big part of town taking winning lines of play and this setup gives town an extra day "day1" before a town paragon can be removed. This is 44% with a dayplay mechanic that skews townie, not 44% with a dayplay mechanic that skews scummy (Like uh, Any Player Can Post In The Game or post restrictions or compulsive gladiatoriazations).