Hitlist Mafia

[chennisden]

10 town, 3 mafia.
At pre-game the mafia must produce an ordered list of 5 players like such:

1. chennisden
2. RadiantCowbells
3. notachennisdenalt
4. awRCestfie
5. RAS

When Mafia performs their nightkills, they

must perform it in this order.

In addition, this list will be

made public D1.

If a player on this list is lynched, Mafia will remove them from the list.

In addition to lynching, town may vote to remove one person from Mafia's hitlist during the day. This is a one-shot ability.

Mafia also have a factional ability to remove one person from their hitlist. This is processed before the factional kill.

After the hitlist is exhausted, Mafia may kill whoever they want.

[mith]

EV-wise, worst case for Mafia is a town EV of 5/14 (35.71%), which is the EV for 3:10 with 5 ICs.

Mafia can do better than that by always removing a given slot from the list immediately and making that player scum with some optimal probability, to reduce it to 3:10 with 4 ICs. And they can do even better than that if they always list 0-1 scum and remove a slot before the potential scum slot is killed, making it worse than 3:10 with 4 ICs (win some higher chance of one of the scum not being available to be lynched for some number of days, if town assumes they are all ICs until one is removed).

It might even be just as good for scum if the last slot is scum more frequently, increasing the probability that they win before they get to that slot.

Anyway, scumsided, but lots of potential information.

[chennisden]

Yeah I think the "information" thing is what makes EV sort of not a good comparison, especially given potential for wifom plays. I do agree it is scumsided to some extent

[mith]

My point with the initial number is that scum can do no worse than a town EV of 5/14 just by picking 5 townies at random for the list and totally ignoring the mechanic otherwise. It would be a difficult game in some sense, but scum don’t have to give town any information beyond what they would generate in a Nightless game, essentially (a game with lots of ICs would play as Nightless until all the ICs have been killed).

Whether 5/14 is too scumsided for that type of game, I don’t know. It’s probably fine.