[SETUP AND EV CALCULATIONS] Dayvig Deactivators

[OkaPoka]

stolen from my august challenge that might not even be legitimate

Dayvigs and Godfathers

aka my attempt at creating a 6p game that is balanced and fits marathon format

4 1-shot Town Dayvig Deactivators

1 Mafia Godfather
1 Mafia Goon

Standard day/night cycle, dayvigs must be made public and will reset the vote. However upon the first dayvig attempt, all other dayvigs will be deactivated and unable to use their ability.

Mafia wins when they have parity with town (so town can't no lynch into a 2v2 situations and then dayvig to win)
Town wins when all scum are eliminated OR they dayvig the Godfather.

I think in practice, town have several things going for them in this setup. They can force the scummiest player to attempt a dayvig on the second scummiest, and if dayvig isn't registered, the scummiest player is outed scum, otherwise they are confirmed town and even if the vig hits town, they don't lose yet. Lynching the third scummiest would only result in a loss if the bottom three players are all town. Otherwise scum is basically forced to NK the formerly scummiest player. Of course there are going to be players who lol vig post 1 but I mean idk.

Also not exactly sure if this setup follows the no new associative/combination role guideline but I'm sure there is a way to word it so it wouldn't.

oh yeah and daytalk, nks and the shabang

Okay so mith calculated EV to be

With that change, I get 7/15 for dayvig autowin but no lynch autowin, and 60-40 with both autowin:

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1/6 - lynch godfather EV 3/5 (or 1)
1/6 - lynch goon EV 3/5
4/6 - IC, shoot EV 2/5 (or 1/2)
      1/5 - shoot godfather EV 1
      1/5 - shoot goon EV 1/2
      3/5 - shoot town EV 1/6 (or 1/3)
            1/4 - lynch godfather, nk IC, EV 1/3 (or 1)
            1/4 - lynch goon, nk IC, EV 1/3
            1/2 - lynch town, EV 0

(And 2/5 for no autowin at all, and 8/15 for only lynch autowin but not dayvig autowin.)

but im getting 0.5833 or 7/12

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4 T, 1 GF + 1 Goon, autowin on dayvig gf

Lynch no shooting strats:

⅙ GF outed -> 1 Goon vs 3 T
	-¼ Goon outed, 1/24 town win
	-¾ IC dayvig
		-⅔ VT shot -> IC VT Goon
			-½ VT lynched, 1/24 town lose
			-½ Goon lynched, 1/24 town win
		-⅓ Goon shot, 1/24 town win
⅙ Goon outed -> 1 GF vs 3 T
¼ GF outed, 1/24 town win
¾ IC dayvig
⅔ VT shot -> IC VT GF
-½ VT lynched, 1/24 town lose
			-½ GF lynched, 1/24 town win
-⅓ GF shot, 1/24 town win
⅔  IC Dayvig
	-⅕ GF shot, 2/15 town win
	-⅕ Goon shot, GF, 3VT, 1 IC
		-¼ GF lynched, 1/30 town win
		-¾ VT lynched, GF, 2VT
			-⅓ GF lynched, 1/30 town win
			-⅔ VT lynched, 1/15 town win
	-⅗ VT shot, GF, Goon, 2VT, 1 IC
		-½  GF/Goon lynch, GF/Goon vs 2 VT
			-⅓ Maf lynch, 1/15 town win
			-⅔ VT lynch, 2/15 town lose
		-½ VT lynch, ⅕ town lose

Also feel free to roast setup, I'm thinking of alternative variants with

1) no Godfathers (4 v 2 basically)
2) no Godfathers + activated BP on dayvig
3) forcing dayvig to happen day 1 only
4) Godfather death is autolose for scum

[chennisden]

Ur setup is a burnt chicken

[popsofctown]

What's wrong with it

[Spangled]

Gotta trust all of town not to be impulsive and stupid, or policy-shoot.
Also, town can really easily 'leash' people and force them to shoot, and if it doesn't go through, lynch 'em.
That about half-guarantees at least one scum death for free, methinkst.
The deactivation does mostly solve the issue of 'everyone's a dayvig except scum', though, you're right.

[OkaPoka]

yeah leashing would be the hypothetical purpose of this setup and its how im calculating evs

basically town chooses their lynch and if its town they can flip it on the head and shoot someone else

kinda like vengeful mafia in a lot of ways

[OkaPoka]

but idk if i calculated my setup wrong because if mith's calculation is correct im fine as is but if my calculation is correct then its townsided imo and id think i need to get rid of the godfather aspect of the setup

[mith]

Yours are probably correct. Going through them I immediately realized that I was only allowing for a dayvig on day 1, whereas if a scum is outed day 1 town can lynch and save their dayvig for the next day.

It's worth considering whether town would do better to go ahead and use the dayvig, though - if it's the GF outed, they win immediately this way. If I had time, I'd figure that out.

[mith]

Your math is wrong too though - you have " -⅔ VT lynched, 1/15 town win" which should be scum win, EV is actually 31/60.

Town does very slightly better by dayvig on an outed scum though:

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1/6 - out and lynch godfather EV 3/4
1/6 - out and lynch goon EV 3/4

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1/6 - out and shoot godfather EV 1
1/6 - out goon EV 3/5
      1/5 out godfather EV 1
      4/5 shoot goon EV 1/2
          1/4 lynch godfather EV 1
          3/4 lynch town EV 1/3

total EV ends up at 8/15.

[OkaPoka]

oh yeah i forgot to say

first game of this w godfathers ended in a scum win

because town couldnt lynch

viewtopic.php?f=24&t=80789


I think in a marathon format this game should be run with a day extension rather than a longer day because town r lazy d1 to do things

Also I remember hearing people in sitechat feeling like this setup is scumsided which is interesting

[OkaPoka]

viewtopic.php?f=83&t=81519

scum win!

[Amrun]

I think The Godfather aspect was interesting. People were trying to play around it. It does make it harder for scum though, in a way. It made people expect bussing less, though, which we played up.