[SETUP] [EV] Monty Hall 7p

[Mathdino]

no, for other mountainous setups

intuitively if you ignore EV doesn't starting in lylo feel better for town's odds?

having thought about it i think 2:5 feels better because even if we lynch wrong, we get to keep our towniest player to dictate 2:3 LyLo and still get the clear from 1:2

[RadiantCowbells]

ut like

of your two towniest players at the start of the game in 2:5, you have none in lylo to be your safe pick to autowin the endgame and have to rely on your third

in 2:3 you get to use your single biggest townread from that point.

[Jingle]

I think EV is essentially worthless.

I wouldn't say worthless.

EV has it's use. That use is "Compare the EV to a similar setup that has been run before and is balanced to determine what EV is functionally fair" not "Try to get EV to 50%", but it IS helpful in determining starting points for tweaking truly innovative designs and determining starting points that for setups that are similar to established ones.

Also, I agree both that this setup is likely scumsided in practice and that the mechanic means a lot less outside of LYLO to the point where the first few days are mostly WIFOM.

I don't think dropping it to 2v3 fixes the balance, though, because at that point there's no accountability for lynches. It turns the game into "If the strongest player is scum, scum probably wins." without much room for town to catch on that they're being played.

[popsofctown]

For Mountainous setups, would you feel more comfortable with a model that randomly ranked players from towniest to scummiest and lynched/NK'd accordingly?

Redoing the EV project with that in mind would be pretty trivial. You could call the status quo the Random Lynch Model and yours the Random Reads Model.

I do all balancing based on locked in day 1 sort, since rc convinced me about this a few months ago

[popsofctown]

I'm too lazy to simulate possible read changes and stuff

[popsofctown]

Also I just call it "EV" because I'm lazy

[popsofctown]

The goal of mafia is to make everyone townread you and murderlate everyone who doesn't townread you.

[Awoo]

The goal of mafia is to kill everyone who disagrees with you regardless of alignment

[popsofctown]

It's not really mafia unless I can lynch or nightkill the large theme mod for disagreeing with me about whether the roles he included are bastard

[Mathdino]

When you guys talk about "simulating", what do you literally mean by that? Because my version of it is either "bash out all the probabilities" or "write a program simulating random lynch/night actions and count town wins".

[popsofctown]

Depends, sometimes the second one. I wrote temporal lich's dark angel setup in c++ and it was a hundred or two hundred lines, and it simulated several nonrandom components of behavior for that setup like not lynching someone relevant to the alt win condition if other good lynched are available.

[popsofctown]

It seems like there's room for programming more aligned with the readslist model, having a certain probability of the D1 readslist getting shuffled d3 and stuff and seeing how that impacts win chances. Like does a friendly meighbor help you more or less when you lock onto reads more stubbornly? I don't know I would wanna program that and run it a billion times

[popsofctown]

But if you jam something out by hand and say ,"ok here on step three, the mafia shoot the cop, because they know they are in a subsetup with no doctor and the cop outed" that is still simulating behavior

[Nancy Drew 39]

Fwiw, I always enjoy playing RC modded games, because they are almost always fairly balanced.

[Nero Cain]

ego

[Nancy Drew 39]

The goal of mafia is to make everyone townread you and murderlate everyone who doesn't townread you.

The goal of mafia is to kill everyone who disagrees with you regardless of alignment

The goal of mafia is to eliminate any slots that you deem a threat to your wincon. Like even if you have a slot that is townlocking you and agreeing with you, if that player has dangerous mech powers that could potentially be a threat to your wincon or maybe they’re so bleeding obvtown, they’re unlynchable, you also need to get rid of them. In HW, I pushed back at Nos who was pushing me but I never ever wanted that slot lynched until LYLO and my reluctance to push it, caused him to do a complete 180 on my slot and tr me for it. Unfortunately for me, he experienced the equivalent of being vigged, which totally sucked for me.

But it’s 100% about threats - whatever they may be.

[Awoo]

The true goal of mafia is to kill everyone who poses a threat to your ego

[Nancy Drew 39]

The true goal of mafia is to kill everyone who poses a threat to your ego

If that were truly the case, I’d never play another game.

[Awoo]

You win when you are the best player left in the game, and no one contests this position.