[Setup] 9 and 2 [Edited]

This forum is for discussion of individual Open Setups, including theoretical balance.
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Post Post #50 (ISO) » Sat May 09, 2020 5:12 pm

Post by Blair »

"Cherry Pepsi outsells Original Pepsi, while Original Coca-Cola outsells Cherry Coca-Cola. Therefore, Cherry Pepsi is better than Cherry Coca-Cola."
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Post Post #51 (ISO) » Sat May 09, 2020 5:27 pm

Post by OkaPoka »

is it bad i cant tell if quick is being sarcastic or not
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Post Post #52 (ISO) » Sat May 09, 2020 5:36 pm

Post by Quick »

In post 50, Blair wrote:"Cherry Pepsi outsells Original Pepsi, while Original Coca-Cola outsells Cherry Coca-Cola. Therefore, Cherry Pepsi is better than Cherry Coca-Cola."
That looks illogical to me...
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Post Post #53 (ISO) » Sat May 09, 2020 5:36 pm

Post by Quick »

In post 51, OkaPoka wrote:is it bad i cant tell if quick is being sarcastic or not
Par for the course ;)
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Post Post #54 (ISO) » Sat May 09, 2020 5:40 pm

Post by Blair »

In post 52, Quick wrote:
In post 50, Blair wrote:"Cherry Pepsi outsells Original Pepsi, while Original Coca-Cola outsells Cherry Coca-Cola. Therefore, Cherry Pepsi is better than Cherry Coca-Cola."
That looks illogical to me...
Very good, Quick!

Now substitute:

Cherry > Town
Original > Scum
Pepsi > on MU
Coca-Cola > on MS
Outsells > Outperforms
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Post Post #55 (ISO) » Sat May 09, 2020 5:42 pm

Post by Quick »

In post 54, Blair wrote:
In post 52, Quick wrote:
In post 50, Blair wrote:"Cherry Pepsi outsells Original Pepsi, while Original Coca-Cola outsells Cherry Coca-Cola. Therefore, Cherry Pepsi is better than Cherry Coca-Cola."
That looks illogical to me...
Very good, Quick!

Now substitute:

Cherry > Town
Original > Scum
Pepsi > on MU
Coca-Cola > on MS
Outsells > Outperforms
Honestly, I suck at math.
https://youtu.be/LRkYiRnRzY0

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Post Post #56 (ISO) » Sat May 09, 2020 5:42 pm

Post by Blair »

I humbly accept your surrender. ;)
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Post Post #57 (ISO) » Sat May 09, 2020 5:43 pm

Post by Quick »

In post 56, Blair wrote:I humbly accept your surrender. ;)
Okay. Write up the treaty. I will be sure to read the fine print.
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Post Post #58 (ISO) » Sat May 09, 2020 5:49 pm

Post by Quick »

Or you could try and see what I was trying to get at with Ircher for what it is. Your choice!
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Post Post #59 (ISO) » Sat May 09, 2020 5:51 pm

Post by Isis »

I choose Cherry Coca Cola, always.
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Post Post #60 (ISO) » Sat May 09, 2020 5:52 pm

Post by Quick »

In post 59, Isis wrote:I choose Cherry Coca Cola, always.
Vanilla's better.
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Post Post #61 (ISO) » Sat May 09, 2020 6:06 pm

Post by Blair »

In post 58, Quick wrote:Or you could try and see what I was trying to get at with Ircher for what it is. Your choice!
"Town win rate is slightly higher under MU rulesets" would have been fine. That's measurable.

That isn't what you said, though, and when it was clear that I was responding to what you actually said, rather than the above, you could have corrected yourself. Instead you doubled down and suggested that the town win rates were not what you meant, but instead were actually evidence for what you said.

Otherwise identical setups become more townsided when you run them with 48 hour day phases and plurality lynches. If that was your point, then I agree, and we're done here.

If that wasn't your point, then everything else I said earlier still applies.
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Post Post #62 (ISO) » Sat May 09, 2020 6:12 pm

Post by Quick »

In post 61, Blair wrote:
In post 58, Quick wrote:Or you could try and see what I was trying to get at with Ircher for what it is. Your choice!
"Town win rate is slightly higher under MU rulesets" would have been fine. That's measurable.

That isn't what you said, though, and when it was clear that I was responding to what you actually said, rather than the above, you could have corrected yourself. Instead you doubled down and suggested that the town win rates were not what you meant, but instead were actually evidence for what you said.

Otherwise identical setups become more townsided when you run them with 48 hour day phases and plurality lynches. If that was your point, then I agree, and we're done here.

If that wasn't your point, then everything else I said earlier still applies.
131 I guess.
https://youtu.be/LRkYiRnRzY0

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Post Post #63 (ISO) » Sun May 10, 2020 1:53 am

Post by TheMainMan »

Thingyman from MU here.
In post 0, Quick wrote:Don't know if this is a setup already, but I digress.

Mountainous: 8 Townies, 2 Goons

That's it.
I agree with others that this seems quite unbalanced.
In post 9, Awoo wrote:10/10 trolling thread
I also assume this thread is a troll :P

At least, I want to make it clear that Quick's views aren't representative of what we think at MU about the level of play here.

As for the Mountainous setup, it seems it hasn't been tested terribly much on any site. But for those interested, here are the MU stats:

When it was used as the setup for Mafia Championship season 4, town won 5 out 14 games. That was 12 townies versus 3 mafia goons. But that's not representative of how MU fares in this setup, as these games consist of players from more than a hundred different communities.

Outside of the Championship, the 12-3 Mountainous setup has been run only 14 times it appears, with town winning just two of these. So interestingly, with the same sample size, a group of strangers did better than a group of MU'ers, though I think half of the sample size for MU was it being used a practice game, so that was also essentially a lot of non-regular MU'ers. All in all, the sample sizes are small and most of the games featured players with no meta on each other, so it's hard to say there's any valuable data.

An 11-2 Mountainous has been run two times, with town winning one of these.
In post 44, Blair wrote:
In post 40, OkaPoka wrote:crossgame ms vs mu when
We ran a series alternating between the two sites shortly after launching MU.

The results did not support Quick's conclusion, but I'm sure he's basing his opinion off of more recent experiences.
Is this nolemonplease? :D

However, we've never run a MS-MU series, so I think you must be thinking of something else. We'd love to run such a thing though, that'd be fun.
Last edited by TheMainMan on Sun May 10, 2020 2:13 am, edited 6 times in total.
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Post Post #64 (ISO) » Sun May 10, 2020 1:54 am

Post by TheMainMan »

In post 39, Blair wrote:If it isn't clear enough, I disagree with your claim that the skill disparity between the two sites is a "fact" and look forward to hearing what your sample size and conclusive evidence is to support this.

The
perception
of MU players for the past couple of years has largely been that MS has strong scum and MU has strong town. It's impossible to gather conclusive data to support this conclusion, however, because even identical setups are run differently on the two sites - MU considers plurality lynches and shorter phases to be standard, and MS considers majority lynches and longer phases standard.

Phase length and plurality/majority lynches are major factors that influence game balance
- that's why setups that produce balanced win rates on one sites often have to be tweaked to produce the same on the other. Not a "factual" skill disparity.
And this is, of course, obviously true as well.
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Post Post #65 (ISO) » Sun May 10, 2020 5:52 am

Post by Blair »

Hi, Thingy!

Now I have to do some digging, because it's going to drive me crazy trying to figure out what series I was referring to.
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Post Post #66 (ISO) » Sun May 10, 2020 7:07 am

Post by Quick »

In post 63, TheMainMan wrote:Thingyman from MU here.
In post 0, Quick wrote:Don't know if this is a setup already, but I digress.

Mountainous: 8 Townies, 2 Goons

That's it.
I agree with others that this seems quite unbalanced.
In post 9, Awoo wrote:10/10 trolling thread
I also assume this thread is a troll :P

At least, I want to make it clear that Quick's views aren't representative of what we think at MU about the level of play here.

As for the Mountainous setup, it seems it hasn't been tested terribly much on any site. But for those interested, here are the MU stats:

When it was used as the setup for Mafia Championship season 4, town won 5 out 14 games. That was 12 townies versus 3 mafia goons. But that's not representative of how MU fares in this setup, as these games consist of players from more than a hundred different communities.

Outside of the Championship, the 12-3 Mountainous setup has been run only 14 times it appears, with town winning just two of these. So interestingly, with the same sample size, a group of strangers did better than a group of MU'ers, though I think half of the sample size for MU was it being used a practice game, so that was also essentially a lot of non-regular MU'ers. All in all, the sample sizes are small and most of the games featured players with no meta on each other, so it's hard to say there's any valuable data.

An 11-2 Mountainous has been run two times, with town winning one of these.
In post 44, Blair wrote:
In post 40, OkaPoka wrote:crossgame ms vs mu when
We ran a series alternating between the two sites shortly after launching MU.

The results did not support Quick's conclusion, but I'm sure he's basing his opinion off of more recent experiences.
Is this nolemonplease? :D

However, we've never run a MS-MU series, so I think you must be thinking of something else. We'd love to run such a thing though, that'd be fun.
Keep in mind the word "superior" is NOWHERE in any of what I posted in this thread and that was NEVER my point. Okay, thanks.
https://youtu.be/LRkYiRnRzY0

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Post Post #67 (ISO) » Sun May 10, 2020 7:11 am

Post by TheMainMan »

In post 66, Quick wrote:
In post 63, TheMainMan wrote:Thingyman from MU here.
In post 0, Quick wrote:Don't know if this is a setup already, but I digress.

Mountainous: 8 Townies, 2 Goons

That's it.
I agree with others that this seems quite unbalanced.
In post 9, Awoo wrote:10/10 trolling thread
I also assume this thread is a troll :P

At least, I want to make it clear that Quick's views aren't representative of what we think at MU about the level of play here.

As for the Mountainous setup, it seems it hasn't been tested terribly much on any site. But for those interested, here are the MU stats:

When it was used as the setup for Mafia Championship season 4, town won 5 out 14 games. That was 12 townies versus 3 mafia goons. But that's not representative of how MU fares in this setup, as these games consist of players from more than a hundred different communities.

Outside of the Championship, the 12-3 Mountainous setup has been run only 14 times it appears, with town winning just two of these. So interestingly, with the same sample size, a group of strangers did better than a group of MU'ers, though I think half of the sample size for MU was it being used a practice game, so that was also essentially a lot of non-regular MU'ers. All in all, the sample sizes are small and most of the games featured players with no meta on each other, so it's hard to say there's any valuable data.

An 11-2 Mountainous has been run two times, with town winning one of these.
In post 44, Blair wrote:
In post 40, OkaPoka wrote:crossgame ms vs mu when
We ran a series alternating between the two sites shortly after launching MU.

The results did not support Quick's conclusion, but I'm sure he's basing his opinion off of more recent experiences.
Is this nolemonplease? :D

However, we've never run a MS-MU series, so I think you must be thinking of something else. We'd love to run such a thing though, that'd be fun.
Keep in mind the word "superior" is NOWHERE in any of what I posted in this thread and that was NEVER my point. Okay, thanks.
I'm sorry if I've misrepresented you. I just wanted to make sure it didn't come across to MS as though MU has some negative view of this site, which certainly isn't the case. I'd say the MS'ers that have come to play on MU have displayed a high level of play.
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Post Post #68 (ISO) » Sun May 10, 2020 7:12 am

Post by TheMainMan »

In post 65, Blair wrote:Hi, Thingy!

Now I have to do some digging, because it's going to drive me crazy trying to figure out what series I was referring to.
There was like a Hydra event where I think maybe a couple of people from here might've joined up and played in that?
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Post Post #69 (ISO) » Sun May 10, 2020 7:13 am

Post by Quick »

In post 67, TheMainMan wrote:I'm sorry if I've misrepresented you. I just wanted to make sure it didn't come across to MS as though MU has some negative view of this site.
Why would I have a negative view of either site?

Also, I started on this site before MU but PerC is where I actually "started". I should really get back there at some point.
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Post Post #70 (ISO) » Sun May 10, 2020 7:15 am

Post by Quick »

Look, REALLY my point was NEVER one site is better than the other.

My point WAS that MU probably (AFAIK) has a Town winrate better than MS. And that is taking things site wide and not just looking at mountainous.
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Post Post #71 (ISO) » Sun May 10, 2020 8:24 am

Post by Quick »

Unless things have changed drastically in like 3 years, which I doubt. Because I remember seeing a comment by someone who said on MU Town has a better win rate than Scum. That is what it's based on. It's from my first game on MU I believe.
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Post Post #72 (ISO) » Sun May 10, 2020 8:48 am

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In post 70, Quick wrote:Look, REALLY my point was NEVER one site is better than the other.

My point WAS that MU probably (AFAIK) has a Town winrate better than MS. And that is taking things site wide and not just looking at mountainous.
I could quote you in this thread saying how bad this site is, but I'm too much of a fan of apophasis. At the very least, I'm certain you can see how it might be easy to think that that's the point you're making.

Is it empirically true that MU has a higher town winrate? Also, town winrate across what types of games? Thingyman's analysis (which I very much appreciated) doesn't seem to strongly point towards one site over the other when it comes to open setups. From memory of looking at MU's database-tracked winrates for their normal games, it was roughly 50/50. This is comparable to MS's 53% town winrate for mini normals in 2019 (of course, I'm not sure how comparable setups are between sites, but that's kind of the point, isn't it?).

Also, if your point is simply to bring up greater town winrates on MU, I might ask if there's any deeper point or insight you were attempting to get at. I think it's natural to assume that someone making that sort of statement would be using it to further some other point rather than just making mention of it, but I could be wrong about that.
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Post Post #73 (ISO) » Sun May 10, 2020 8:58 am

Post by Quick »

In post 72, northsidegal wrote:
In post 70, Quick wrote:Look, REALLY my point was NEVER one site is better than the other.

My point WAS that MU probably (AFAIK) has a Town winrate better than MS. And that is taking things site wide and not just looking at mountainous.
I could quote you in this thread saying how bad this site is, but I'm too much of a fan of apophasis. At the very least, I'm certain you can see how it might be easy to think that that's the point you're making.

Is it empirically true that MU has a higher town winrate? Also, town winrate across what types of games? Thingyman's analysis (which I very much appreciated) doesn't seem to strongly point towards one site over the other when it comes to open setups. From memory of looking at MU's database-tracked winrates for their normal games, it was roughly 50/50. This is comparable to MS's 53% town winrate for mini normals in 2019 (of course, I'm not sure how comparable setups are between sites, but that's kind of the point, isn't it?).

Also, if your point is simply to bring up greater town winrates on MU, I might ask if there's any deeper point or insight you were attempting to get at. I think it's natural to assume that someone making that sort of statement would be using it to further some other point rather than just making mention of it, but I could be wrong about that.
Do your analysis again, but this time consider I wasn't saying any site was better at anything besides winrates of Town/Scum.

Okay, time to go ISO myself to see if I am telling the truth here...
https://youtu.be/LRkYiRnRzY0

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Post Post #74 (ISO) » Sun May 10, 2020 8:59 am

Post by Quick »

In post 6, Quick wrote:
In post 5, Ircher wrote:1) Evens is bad in setups with mafia kills because town's best chances come from no lynching at some point. There are exceptions, but in mountainous, no lynching is ALWAYS the correct move in terms of EV. This takes a town controlled kill and turns it into a scum controlled kill.
2) Town only performs above EV in nightless setup. I believe town has yet to win a mountainous setup on this site, so mountainous probably results in town performing below EV if anything.
Wow, Town really really sucks on this site. I didn't know it was THAT bad.
Just to be clear, Ircher said Town does worse than EV in mountainous.
https://youtu.be/LRkYiRnRzY0

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