[VARIANT] Lovers and Losers

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[VARIANT] Lovers and Losers

Post Post #0 (ISO) » Mon Apr 19, 2021 11:29 pm

Post by yessiree »

link to original setup

Lovers and Losers

9 Players:

2 Mafia Lovers
1 Mafia Goon

4 Town Lovers (2 pairs)
2 VTs

  • Daystart
  • Nightless
  • Only one VT may get eliminated and only one Town Lover may get eliminated.
  • If someone attempts to eliminate a role that has already been eliminated, the game ends in a mafia victory.


I'm re-visiting this variant for more visibility because this is in signups at the open queue right now. I quite like the concept of the original setup; it's a neat little nightless setup involving lovers, so in theory it should lead to a very fluid experience and some sharp plays. The original setup had all mafia as Lovers, meaning there is absolutely no bussing at all. The most optimal play by town is to mass claim at the start and eliminate from the VT claims, since mafia is forced to claim as a pair and a VT.

The expected winrate of town going by this plan is 2/3. Pretty straight forward, town has 1/3 chance of winning on day 1, and a 2/3 * 1/2 chance of winning on day 2. 1/3 + 2/3 * 1/2 = 2/3. Since the EV of this plan is so high, there's no reason to use any other strategy. But this kinda takes a lot of suspense away since the elimination pool is effectively reduced to 3 players at the start.

This is what this variant aims to address. By splitting mafia into a lover pair and a loner (loser), it makes the aforementioned optimal strategy invalid because mafia can afford to bus the loner instead of losing the game immediately. Now it forces town to hunt down both the loner and the lover pair, instead of just trying to find one mafia within the VT claims.

EV calculation for town win is as follows:
loner, M.Lover
1/3 * 1/3 = 1/9

loner, T.Lover, M.Lover
1/3 * 2/3 * 1/2 = 1/9

vt, loner, M.Lover
2/3 * 1/2 * 1/3 = 1/9

vt, loner, T.Lover, M.Lover
2/3 * 1/2 * 2/3 * 1/2 = 1/9

4/9
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Post Post #1 (ISO) » Tue Apr 20, 2021 5:28 am

Post by LlamaFluff »

Doesnt this still suffer a bit from moves being forced and optimized?

D1 should be massclaim and then taking out a lover pair (best case 4 confirmed town for remainder of game vs 2 if going from VT pool, more opinions from more town is better)
D2 goes to VT pool no matter what happened D1 (either all lovers are confirmed town, or you are making a move that if hits town provides more information for final days. Argument that 1/3 v 1/2 odds doesnt make sense as you need to target VT pool D3 if game is still going following taking out second lover pair)
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Post Post #2 (ISO) » Tue Apr 20, 2021 7:24 am

Post by yessiree »

Well, in any 9p open setups, elimming mafia day 1 is always gonna be a huge advantage for town going forward. But I think mafia has enough counter play here. If you elim the lover pair, mafia can still try to outplay the vts and get 2 mislim there. And similarly if the loner goon is elimmed first, mafia can still outplay the lovers.

Also if you limm a vt and a town lover pair, town loses by design
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Post Post #3 (ISO) » Tue Apr 20, 2021 8:55 am

Post by LlamaFluff »

In post 2, yessiree wrote:Also if you limm a vt and a town lover pair, town loses by design
That needs to be made clear then through updated win condition (sample roles are probably needed). Right now technically it would just be a draw (VT, MG, Town Pair, Mafia Pair) and in that spot mafia still hasnt achieved win condition (more than one VT or Town Lover pair eliminated). I would add in something about how deadlines work too, like are days indefinite, after X real life days its plurality/scum wins, etc. I doubt most people would go for making the move, but I would include confirmation has to as Scum or Town Lover include who your partner is.
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Post Post #4 (ISO) » Tue Apr 20, 2021 2:54 pm

Post by yessiree »

In post 3, LlamaFluff wrote:
In post 2, yessiree wrote:Also if you limm a vt and a town lover pair, town loses by design
That needs to be made clear then through updated win condition (sample roles are probably needed). Right now technically it would just be a draw (VT, MG, Town Pair, Mafia Pair) and in that spot mafia still hasnt achieved win condition (more than one VT or Town Lover pair eliminated). I would add in something about how deadlines work too, like are days indefinite, after X real life days its plurality/scum wins, etc. I doubt most people would go for making the move, but I would include confirmation has to as Scum or Town Lover include who your partner is.
I'm under the impression nightless setups award the win to mafia when they reach parity. I don't see mafia ever elimming themselves in a 3:3 scenario but maybe that's where plurality voting comes in
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Post Post #5 (ISO) » Tue Apr 20, 2021 3:47 pm

Post by LlamaFluff »

I would still create new role PMs. Even a trial should be free of any loopholes, and what happens with deadlines needs to be addressed, unless you intend days to potential last for months. Not that its wrong, but something needs to be setup as its nightless.
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Post Post #6 (ISO) » Tue Apr 20, 2021 5:25 pm

Post by yessiree »

I checked the last game and it was ran with majority elim during the day, and plurality elim at deadline (forgot the exact length of day but it was pretty short since it was a micro)

I don't think it's gonna come down to plurality lim most of the time so this *should* be good enough to cover most cases. One thing that was brought up last game was the possibility of a 4:4 split stand off after a VT is elimed on day 1, in which case the first wagon to reach 4 votes gets elimed, but for that to happen, (at least) one town lover pair will need to vote differently which imo is unlikely to happen and bad decision making on their part anyway (might even be ai? dunno). There might be other stand off cases as well but I think it's part of what makes this setup sharp (and exciting), and I'm hoping it will get resolved via normal play before hitting the deadline.
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Post Post #7 (ISO) » Tue Apr 20, 2021 5:50 pm

Post by LlamaFluff »

I think how deadline gets resolved will be important. Lets just say you make it 10 days for D1 and at deadline its a 4-4-1. What happens? What if its at 4-3-2? 3-3-3?

Its not going to be overly important, but actually can effect balance just a touch.
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Post Post #8 (ISO) » Wed Apr 21, 2021 7:36 am

Post by Jingle »

Generally I think the standard for nightless is most recently highest plurality, which should probably work here, FWIW. You should definitely make parity-as-wincon explicit through sample PMs as well.

(Highest votecount limmed at deadline, then player who was at a higher previous vote when the tie was achieved if there's a tie. Only situation this doesn't resolve is the case where 0 votes are cast in a phase, which... shouldn't come up.)
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Post Post #9 (ISO) » Wed Apr 21, 2021 9:47 am

Post by LlamaFluff »

Yeah its just minor things that need to be cleaned up because otherwise it creates an issue in the middle of the game if you are tweaking win conditions/deadline rules even if you can say the implication was there.
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Post Post #10 (ISO) » Wed Apr 21, 2021 7:27 pm

Post by yessiree »

Can do re PMs.

I *think* the mafia-win-on-parity is what bullet point 3 tries to get at but it's just worded in a really roundabout way :lol:
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Post Post #11 (ISO) » Thu Apr 22, 2021 5:23 pm

Post by Jingle »

Nah, point 3 is an alternate wincon.
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Post Post #12 (ISO) » Thu Apr 22, 2021 11:17 pm

Post by yessiree »

Only one VT may get eliminated and only one Town Lover may get eliminated,
but not BOTH


bolded is implied imo
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Post Post #13 (ISO) » Sat Apr 24, 2021 6:42 am

Post by Jingle »

In post 0, yessiree wrote:vt, loner, T.Lover, M.Lover
2/3 * 1/2 * 2/3 * 1/2 = 1/9
So this would be a maf win?
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Post Post #14 (ISO) » Sat Apr 24, 2021 7:50 am

Post by LlamaFluff »

I dont think it should be, but by current win conditions it is.

I could see the argument that VT/Town Lovers going back to back starting the game is a scum win, but it role PMs need to make it clear because rules implies scum activate the win condition at VT, 1x Town Lover pair, 1x Mafia Lover pair despite being down 3-2 player wise.
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Post Post #15 (ISO) » Sat Apr 24, 2021 6:14 pm

Post by Jingle »

To maintain the current EV in OP, Setup Rule 4 and mafia parity win are all that is necessary. Rule 3 is superfluous at best and misleading at worst.

Also, the setup if is a scumwin is massively scumsided.
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Post Post #16 (ISO) » Sun Apr 25, 2021 3:43 pm

Post by yessiree »

:facepalm:

yes... there seems to be lapses in my memory. I'm just gonna merge point 3 and 4 to make the wincons more clear.

Lovers and Losers

9 Players:

2 Mafia Lovers
1 Mafia Goon

4 Town Lovers (2 pairs)
2 VTs

  • Daystart
  • Nightless
  • Mafia wins when they reach parity with town or when 2 VTs are eliminated.
  • Town wins when all Mafia members are eliminated.
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