[SETUP] Situation Room
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[SETUP] Situation Room
From the November-December Challenge
EV for Vengeful Mafia 5:12 is 38.44%, which I think that this should resemble pretty closely. It probably makes sense to transition to blitz-esque deadlines once the neighborhood kills start happening.
I'm making this thread because I think this might be the next large theme I run, and to maybe get some feedback before doing that.- Isis
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This setup is badass"Let us say that you are right and there are two worlds. How much, then, is this 'other world' worth to you? What do you have there that you do not have here? Money? Power? Something worth causing the prince so much pain for?'"
"Well, I..."
"What? Nothing? You would make the prince suffer over... nothing?"- Jingle
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northsidegal Survivor
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and yeah, that's a definite consideration on the wagon composition thing
i don't think it affects the EV all that much, although i do think that in terms of in-game strategy it opens up a lot of gameplay space there, e.g. scum coordinating to try to control a majority of a hood or a majority of most hoods, them still having to act like town even if they control a majority of a hood because the townies left in there could be in another hood, so on and so on- Jingle
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Is there plurality at deadline or standard no elimination? If plurality there's a really boring breaking strategy of choose one player to be "Town" and eliminate with a wagon of 1 each time. Eliminate anyone else who votes, "Town" has sequential vig shots of the entire scumteam comp and town EV becomes much higher.
Neighborhood 1 is 9 people initially, but could be as low as 4 based on eliminations (Self hammer is actually viable as both factions to manipulate neighborhood comp). Applying that to all neighborhoods we get
4-9 players
5-9 players
5-8 players
6-8 players
6-7 players
Neighborhood 6 is 0-17 people. (Theoretically you could have 5 no lims with no wagon if everyone wanted to play this as a straight mountainous. Without looking at specific cases it seems likely that you would want to lim on wagon since scum is disproportionately likely to want to be on wagon and there's a risk of cascading pluralities among the various hoods because of that. I would wager this is fairly scumsided, possibly to the point that making it 4v12 would be preferable. The neighborhood play seems fascinating, though.This is a Parachute.- northsidegal
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i trust that both the scumteam themselves as well as players who care more about having fun than playing completely mechanically optimally will be enough to ensure that any sort of super low neighborhood size strategy like that would fail. also, i wouldn't count "no eliminate" as a valid vote, so that'd require nobody at all to vote, which again i trust wouldn't happen.
i'm interested to hear why you think it's scumsided – i could've made it 4:13 which has a vengeful EV of almost exactly 50%, but i expect vengescum to play more like nightless than it does like mountainous, so i tend towards a lower calculated EV.- Jingle
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Normally I'd agree with you, but I think the endgame parity is a strong scumsiding factor.
Basically, if Neighborhood 1 is 3 scum and 4 town to begin with and Neighborhood 2 is 4 scum and 4 town and neighborhood 3 is 2 scum and 4 town, Scum can manipulate Neighborhood 1 into killing someone who is town in Neighborhoods 2 and three. Scum now have the majority in Neighborhood 2, and can kill someone who is town in Neighborhoods 1 and 3. Scum now have three sequential kills and can mitigate overlap into other hoods to be able to work to parity faster.
I'm not 100% sure there isn't an opposite balancing mechanic (neighborhoods becoming conftown via the game not ending) but it seems more likely for the scum one to matter, particularly with the incentive town has to distrust any townies who are in multiple hoods. It definitely seems like the kind of setup where limming a scum early could easily snowball into an inevitable town win, but the odds of 5 living scum on D6 aren't unreasonable (13%) and both 4 and 5 large scumteams seem virtually unbeatable in endgame. This is even without considering the venge aspect of the scumteams.This is a Parachute.- Jingle
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meh, i think my opinion on this is basically "if they can swing it, good for them, they deserve it". i think that this setup is unusuallyIn post 7, Jingle wrote:Normally I'd agree with you, but I think the endgame parity is a strong scumsiding factor.
Basically, if Neighborhood 1 is 3 scum and 4 town to begin with and Neighborhood 2 is 4 scum and 4 town and neighborhood 3 is 2 scum and 4 town, Scum can manipulate Neighborhood 1 into killing someone who is town in Neighborhoods 2 and three. Scum now have the majority in Neighborhood 2, and can kill someone who is town in Neighborhoods 1 and 3. Scum now have three sequential kills and can mitigate overlap into other hoods to be able to work to parity faster.
I'm not 100% sure there isn't an opposite balancing mechanic (neighborhoods becoming conftown via the game not ending) but it seems more likely for the scum one to matter, particularly with the incentive town has to distrust any townies who are in multiple hoods. It definitely seems like the kind of setup where limming a scum early could easily snowball into an inevitable town win, but the odds of 5 living scum on D6 aren't unreasonable (13%) and both 4 and 5 large scumteams seem virtually unbeatable in endgame. This is even without considering the venge aspect of the scumteams.skewedin scum's favor, at least compared to normal nightless or vengescum games (where skew is defined as the tendency for one faction to be able to make massive gains if they play well or get lucky). if scum can manage to get it, they can not only dominate day play but end up controlling the nightkills that the town should otherwise be able to control, so good play is rewarded a lot more than in a typical game. apart from that, if it's relatively scumsided then i'm fine with that – i think that the site meta is currently such most people have a weaker scumgame than towngame, and in the past i've been fine with running setups way more scumsided than this which have ended up fairly close.
i just get the feeling like making it 4 v 13 runs too much of a risk of rolling a weak scumteam that just gets rolled over and then the game doesn't really get to run to its full potential.- Isis
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I feel like it's good as written. It's two fewer townies than death curse but town won death curse. 4/13 is more of an overcorrection than a correction at least"Let us say that you are right and there are two worlds. How much, then, is this 'other world' worth to you? What do you have there that you do not have here? Money? Power? Something worth causing the prince so much pain for?'"
"Well, I..."
"What? Nothing? You would make the prince suffer over... nothing?"- Isis
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And yeah I get there's a scumsiding mechanic present as well.
There's some townsided elements too, though, a lot of powerwolved get fooled by loose cannon townies that can get kills without convincing town at large"Let us say that you are right and there are two worlds. How much, then, is this 'other world' worth to you? What do you have there that you do not have here? Money? Power? Something worth causing the prince so much pain for?'"
"Well, I..."
"What? Nothing? You would make the prince suffer over... nothing?"- Jingle
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I would like to pre-in.My favorite site mod is Zor Tester.
I have Brandi's autograph! I bet you're jealous.- northsidegal
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I agree, especially that one vengekill can remove townie from more then one hood.In post 7, Jingle wrote:Basically, if Neighborhood 1 is 3 scum and 4 town to begin with and Neighborhood 2 is 4 scum and 4 town and neighborhood 3 is 2 scum and 4 town, Scum can manipulate Neighborhood 1 into killing someone who is town in Neighborhoods 2 and three. Scum now have the majority in Neighborhood 2, and can kill someone who is town in Neighborhoods 1 and 3. Scum now have three sequential kills and can mitigate overlap into other hoods to be able to work to parity faster.giv me pagetop :(- northsidegal
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