Anonymous Large Social Game ELOs

For large social games such as Survivor where the primary mechanic is social interaction.
zoraster
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Post Post #100  (ISO)  » Sat Mar 11, 2017 10:10 pm

I think that a 10:1 ratio of first to second is totally inappropriate for a rolling determination of supposed skill. Like if you just want a fun "I wonder what our winnings would be if we used survivor" then sure. Keep it the same or very, very similar. But as a replacement or alternative measure to the elo system I think it'll be sorely lacking.
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hiplop
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Post Post #101  (ISO)  » Sat Mar 11, 2017 10:12 pm

in survivor often second place is a bad player
third best scummer of all time

Cheery Dog
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Post Post #102  (ISO)  » Sat Mar 11, 2017 10:14 pm

But are they a bad player in our version of survivor?
Life is always what it seems.

Vijarada
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Post Post #103  (ISO)  » Sat Mar 11, 2017 10:16 pm

we tend to have the closest fucking games, yeah. apart from alexis/jt and fenrir/figg I can't think of one non-close ftc (in an anonymous game, snakes won mario 8-0-0 I know)

hiplop
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Post Post #104  (ISO)  » Sat Mar 11, 2017 10:18 pm

must be polite
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zoraster
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Post Post #105  (ISO)  » Sat Mar 11, 2017 10:22 pm

Look, either we say that second place is deserving of more recognition than third place or we scrap the entire thing of trying to track performances. Or have a "winner's circle" that lists number of wins by player.

""""""bad"""""" doesn't enter into it.
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Shadoweh
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Post Post #106  (ISO)  » Sat Mar 11, 2017 10:28 pm

I just like the idea of seeing what payouts would be if we were in theory actually playing Survivor!
I HATE YOU SO MUCH PLEASE GO JUMP INTO A FREEZING LAKE - Mr. Freeze
Plan B: it serves you right if i (hug) you in the face though, right?
I love it when people talk about my brutal murder in front of me, it's actually my secret fetish - Sangmin

Vijarada
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Post Post #107  (ISO)  » Sat Mar 11, 2017 10:29 pm

In post 105, zoraster wrote:Look, either we say that second place is deserving of more recognition than third place or we scrap the entire thing of trying to track performances. Or have a "winner's circle" that lists number of wins by player.

""""""bad"""""" doesn't enter into it.


2nd is worth more than 3rd on the show. 100,000 bucks to 60. people have actually voted people to avoid a tie for second, thus giving the third placer less money.

CuddlyCaucasian
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Post Post #108  (ISO)  » Sat Mar 11, 2017 10:32 pm

What are everyone's thoughts on the total prize pool increasing as the playercount increases, with the proportions of payouts the same except each new last place position added gets 2500?
"CC is very [whatever the equivalent of photogenic as it applies to videos]" - racefan12
"CC is an objectively attractive person." - Crazy
"You look like a happy version of Trent Reznor." - LicketyQuickety
"Do you practice sounding like you're high all the time?" - xofelf

CuddlyCaucasian
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Post Post #109  (ISO)  » Sat Mar 11, 2017 10:35 pm

In a 16-player game, there's an average of $92,875 given out per player, so for 17 players the total prize pool increases by 92875, etc.
"CC is very [whatever the equivalent of photogenic as it applies to videos]" - racefan12
"CC is an objectively attractive person." - Crazy
"You look like a happy version of Trent Reznor." - LicketyQuickety
"Do you practice sounding like you're high all the time?" - xofelf

zoraster
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Post Post #110  (ISO)  » Sat Mar 11, 2017 10:35 pm

if for no other reason than i know it'll make your life way, way easier, it's worth it CC.
.

zoraster
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Post Post #111  (ISO)  » Sat Mar 11, 2017 10:37 pm

By the way, the correlation between % first places and average money won is -.954 among those who have actually won a game, so just know that all you're really doing at the top of the rankings is figuring out who has the highest win rate.
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Vijarada
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Post Post #112  (ISO)  » Sat Mar 11, 2017 10:41 pm

highest win rate is bella right? ugh, she's already at the top of weighted crazy rankings. revolt!

zoraster
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Post Post #113  (ISO)  » Sat Mar 11, 2017 10:43 pm

Of the players with at least one win, the first AND ONLY person with a lower win rate to go above a person with a higher win rate is BPC at 7th place and a 25% win rate over CC with a 28.5% win rate.

So literally a list of people with at least one win is just a list of how often they win with a tiebreaker of how well they did outside of their win rate. Which makes this a complicated way of giving a simple win percentage.

Technically xofelf has a lower win rate than TheBadOne and is higher ranked, but that's the difference between 6.25% and 6.67% so almost not worth mentioning
.

zoraster
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Post Post #114  (ISO)  » Sat Mar 11, 2017 10:44 pm

In post 112, Vijarada wrote:highest win rate is bella right? ugh, she's already at the top of weighted crazy rankings. revolt!


By my calculations Summer, Betch and Snakes all have the highest win rates with 50%. Summer is actually in the lead overall with an average payout of 542500 over two games. Bella has the fourth highest with 40%.
.

Skelda
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Post Post #115  (ISO)  » Sat Mar 11, 2017 10:46 pm

I dunno, don't most people want to win a FTC regardless? I don't think Elo is dominant motivating factor for people. Like, the only time that I think about Elo during a game is at the beginning when I hope that I survive long enough that my Elo doesn't put me at the very bottom.

And would most people be happy with second place? I guess second place finishers always seem happy post-game, but I think getting second seems terrible. But if you're the kind of person who's happy with second, you probably are going to be happy with winning 100,000 fake dollars.

I think the money thing is fine apart from that though. I don't like certain games requiring money to be spent in order to play though if that was a serious suggestion, that's going to incentivize playing it safe even more. Like, if there's a game that I want to play in the near future that costs a little more than I have, I might be super careful at the beginning of the game until I reach the spot that gives me the money that I need. It just seems like it would add a motivating factor to games that's completely external and unnecessary.

The main problem with all of these rankings systems is that they are going to punish people for doing poorly and almost publicly shame them. Like, I didn't make a Jury my first three games, and my attitude going into all of them was just that I needed to make the Jury to prove that I could, you know? There's something really humiliating about being super low on a ranked list when in my opinion placement doesn't necessarily indicate ability or how well you actually played. One of the difficult things about feeling integrated into this community for me was the Elos because it's tough to feel welcome when the numbers are saying that you suck.

But I get why you guys like doing rankings and going through the numbers. I just really think the emphasis should on everyone just doing their best in the current game rather than trying to improve their Elo/money ranking. Feeling previous failures weigh down on you in the middle of a game isn't fun.

zoraster
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Post Post #116  (ISO)  » Sat Mar 11, 2017 10:50 pm

People like the feeling that their performances have some permanence and like if they do well it's not forgotten in ten seconds. That's particularly true of a game that's anonymous where even talking about it knowing that Reck is Hermione and SensFan is Juno we refer to them as Hermione and Juno.
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Vijarada
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Post Post #117  (ISO)  » Sat Mar 11, 2017 10:51 pm

the money pay-in isn't serious, skelda. i'm pretty sure it's a reference to a dumb website called tengaged.

should non-anon survivor games be included in the payout system or not???? because snakes (fuck's SAKE) won one of those, and SIW lost one of those.

zoraster
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Post Post #118  (ISO)  » Sat Mar 11, 2017 10:53 pm

fwiw here's my simple calculations of standings based on CC's formula. Sorted by Average first, then total, then games played:

Spoiler: Standings
Place Name # Games Payout Total Average Payout Number of 1sts Win Percent
1 SummerInWonderland 2 1085000 542500 1 50%
2 Betch 6 3187500 531250 3 50%
3 Snakes 8 4170500 521313 4 50%
4 Bellaphant 5 2100000 420000 2 40%
5 Shiidaji 6 2182500 363750 2 33%
6 kloud1516 3 1023500 341167 1 33%
7 BipolarChemist 4 1180000 295000 1 25%
8 CuddlyCaucasian 7 2057000 293857 2 29%
9 Papa Zito 4 1082500 270625 1 25%
10 Save The Dragons 5 1205000 241000 1 20%
11 Jal 10 2372500 237250 2 20%
12 xRECKONERx 12 2206000 183833 2 17%
13 hiplop 7 1230500 175786 1 14%
14 Drench 14 2393000 170929 2 14%
15 orcinus_theoriginal 7 1137500 162500 1 14%
16 Flameaxe 7 1090000 155714 1 14%
17 Cephrir 9 1400000 155556 1 11%
18 Xalxe 10 1257000 125700 1 10%
19 Klick 23 2719500 118239 2 9%
20 xofelf 16 1797000 112313 1 6%
21 TheBadOne 15 1411500 94100 1 7%
22 Nyalite 3 255000 85000 0 0%
23 pablito 1 85000 85000 0 0%
24 Trevor 1 85000 85000 0 0%
25 Blackberry 9 520500 57833 0 0%
26 SensFan 2 104500 52250 0 0%
27 UpTooLate 2 102500 51250 0 0%
28 DeasVail 10 490000 49000 0 0%
29 Lowell 3 140000 46667 0 0%
30 Blastoide 3 140000 46667 0 0%
31 elusive 2 90000 45000 0 0%
32 Primate 1 45000 45000 0 0%
33 RedPanda 1 45000 45000 0 0%
34 ActionDan 2 87500 43750 0 0%
35 Rhinox 2 87500 43750 0 0%
36 ForWhomTheJellyRolls 10 435000 43500 0 0%
37 Malkon05 3 130000 43333 0 0%
38 Brian Skies 5 208500 41700 0 0%
39 Haschel Cedricson 7 272500 38929 0 0%
40 swyellowtail 2 75500 37750 0 0%
41 Lady Lambdadelta 2 75000 37500 0 0%
42 TheBreeze 6 222500 37083 0 0%
43 TS 6 222500 37083 0 0%
44 MattP 4 140000 35000 0 0%
45 Fluminator 2 70000 35000 0 0%
46 Malakittens 2 70000 35000 0 0%
47 ZazieR 1 35000 35000 0 0%
48 Max 1 35000 35000 0 0%
49 Antagon 1 35000 35000 0 0%
50 Equinox 1 35000 35000 0 0%
51 Shadoweh 8 278000 34750 0 0%
52 OhGodMyLife 6 204500 34083 0 0%
53 DeathNote 13 426500 32808 0 0%
54 Nicholas1024 7 228500 32643 0 0%
55 Chevre 11 338000 30727 0 0%
56 The Ultimator 2 57500 28750 0 0%
57 Scotmany12 1 27500 27500 0 0%
58 Cheery Dog 9 243000 27000 0 0%
59 PrivateI 15 387000 25800 0 0%
60 KageLord 2 50000 25000 0 0%
61 Mist7676 11 273500 24864 0 0%
62 kdowns 13 311500 23962 0 0%
63 GuyInFreezer 2 47500 23750 0 0%
64 pickemgenius 16 348000 21750 0 0%
65 D3f3nd3r 21 438500 20881 0 0%
66 Crazy 8 160000 20000 0 0%
67 mykonian 1 20000 20000 0 0%
68 chesskid3 1 20000 20000 0 0%
69 animorpherv1 11 215500 19591 0 0%
70 Espeonage 4 77500 19375 0 0%
71 PiggyGal15 8 142000 17750 0 0%
72 KingdomAces 9 159500 17722 0 0%
73 Cybele 13 227500 17500 0 0%
74 BROseidon 7 121500 17357 0 0%
75 mastermind 3 50000 16667 0 0%
76 JDGA 9 144500 16056 0 0%
77 UberNinja 2 30000 15000 0 0%
78 Hiraki 1 15000 15000 0 0%
79 DoctorPepper 1 15000 15000 0 0%
80 VisceraEyes 1 15000 15000 0 0%
81 Gale Wing Srock 1 15000 15000 0 0%
82 Felissan 1 15000 15000 0 0%
83 Salamence20 3 41000 13667 0 0%
84 Aronis 10 127000 12700 0 0%
85 pirate mollie 2 22500 11250 0 0%
86 JDodge 2 22500 11250 0 0%
87 Radja 8 89500 11188 0 0%
88 Pizzadudes7 7 72500 10357 0 0%
89 Ten_Heavens 1 10000 10000 0 0%
90 JasonWazza 1 10000 10000 0 0%
91 Lord Mhork 6 53000 8833 0 0%
92 beastcharizard 2 17500 8750 0 0%
93 T-Bone 6 44000 7333 0 0%
94 Skelda 4 28000 7000 0 0%
95 AcRv 2 13000 6500 0 0%
96 Tragedy 2 12500 6250 0 0%
97 MathBlade 3 18000 6000 0 0%
98 SleepyKrew 5 29000 5800 0 0%
99 dramonic 1 5500 5500 0 0%
100 CareyHammer 1 5500 5500 0 0%
101 Axxle 9 46500 5167 0 0%
102 McMenno 3 15000 5000 0 0%
103 TheTrollie 2 10000 5000 0 0%
104 Princess Toady 2 10000 5000 0 0%
105 Tatsuya Kaname 2 10000 5000 0 0%
106 mallowgeno 5 23000 4600 0 0%
107 Aeronaut 3 13500 4500 0 0%
108 Framm18 4 16000 4000 0 0%
109 Extrapolated Eagle 2 8000 4000 0 0%
110 Vijarada 4 14000 3500 0 0%
111 Keybladewielder 2 7000 3500 0 0%
112 RedCoyote 1 3500 3500 0 0%
113 Philammon 1 3500 3500 0 0%
114 Svenskt Stål 1 3500 3500 0 0%
115 randomidget 3 9500 3167 0 0%
116 Narninian 4 12000 3000 0 0%
117 notscience 2 6000 3000 0 0%
118 Nobody Special 3 8500 2833 0 0%
119 zoraster 2 5000 2500 0 0%
120 KuroiXHF 2 5000 2500 0 0%
121 ZZZX 2 5000 2500 0 0%
122 xtopherusD 2 5000 2500 0 0%
123 Elmo TeH AzN 2 5000 2500 0 0%
124 Feirei 2 5000 2500 0 0%
125 gandalf5166 2 5000 2500 0 0%
126 Dry-fit 1 2500 2500 0 0%
127 crywolf20084 1 2500 2500 0 0%
128 TheIrishPope 1 2500 2500 0 0%
129 EspeciallyTheLies 1 2500 2500 0 0%
130 Zang 1 2500 2500 0 0%
131 fuzzybutternut 1 2500 2500 0 0%
132 Marquis 1 2500 2500 0 0%
133 MechaGoomba 1 2500 2500 0 0%
134 danakillsu 1 2500 2500 0 0%
135 Haylen 1 2500 2500 0 0%
136 jasonT1981 1 2500 2500 0 0%
137 theamatuer 1 2500 2500 0 0%
138 horrordude0215 1 2500 2500 0 0%
139 BlackPawn14 1 2500 2500 0 0%
140 Pimhel 1 2500 2500 0 0%
141 Ciara24 1 2500 2500 0 0%
142 Sharkfinn 1 2500 2500 0 0%
143 Gamsimbre 1 2500 2500 0 0%
144 puzzledan 1 2500 2500 0 0%
145 Wraith 1 2500 2500 0 0%
146 jmj3000 1 2500 2500 0 0%
147 Firewristedninja 1 2500 2500 0 0%
148 Jackel98 1 2500 2500 0 0%
149 borkjerkfin 1 2500 2500 0 0%
150 vonflare 1 2500 2500 0 0%
.

Skelda
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Post Post #119  (ISO)  » Sat Mar 11, 2017 10:55 pm

In post 117, Vijarada wrote:the money pay-in isn't serious, skelda. i'm pretty sure it's a reference to a dumb website called tengaged.

should non-anon survivor games be included in the payout system or not???? because snakes (fuck's SAKE) won one of those, and SIW lost one of those.


Oh my god, that website is so stupid! I didn't get it though, take back what I said about that.

Vijarada
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Post Post #120  (ISO)  » Sat Mar 11, 2017 10:57 pm

you should definitely include a min of 3 games or something. there are lots of one-time players quite high there. but yeah it's a really cool system & so forth.

Skelda
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Post Post #121  (ISO)  » Sat Mar 11, 2017 11:00 pm

In post 116, zoraster wrote:People like the feeling that their performances have some permanence and like if they do well it's not forgotten in ten seconds. That's particularly true of a game that's anonymous where even talking about it knowing that Reck is Hermione and SensFan is Juno we refer to them as Hermione and Juno.


That makes sense, but at the same time, people don't like feeling like their failures have permanence and if our goal is to make people be willing to take risks and not just float along, introducing ranking systems isn't going to do it. I think the people who are doing well in these games are generally going to want to return anyway and also are a lot less likely to be motivated by Elo I'd think. I don't think the idea of maintaining a high Elo has the same weight to it that getting rid of a low one does.

CuddlyCaucasian
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Post Post #122  (ISO)  » Sat Mar 11, 2017 11:03 pm

I haven't factored in non-anons or Big Brother yet, which I will eventually, but I made a table of everyone's winnings here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing
"CC is very [whatever the equivalent of photogenic as it applies to videos]" - racefan12
"CC is an objectively attractive person." - Crazy
"You look like a happy version of Trent Reznor." - LicketyQuickety
"Do you practice sounding like you're high all the time?" - xofelf

Vijarada
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Post Post #123  (ISO)  » Sat Mar 11, 2017 11:03 pm

unrelated, can crazy please put the link to his goddamn spreadsheet somewhere other than buried in the spec forums of a game i never remember.

zoraster
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Post Post #124  (ISO)  » Sat Mar 11, 2017 11:05 pm

what? it's in the OP
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