Final Two or Final Three?

For large social games such as Survivor where the primary mechanic is social interaction.
xRECKONERx
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Post Post #25  (ISO)  » Wed Jan 31, 2018 10:08 pm

So, I did some fun calculations!

In Modern MS Survivor (since Hogwarts)...
...F2 winners average 68% of the vote.
...F3 winners average 48% of the vote.

There have been 14 F2s and 5 F3s. (Eon was the first F3 in Modern times.)
ZERO times have the F3s had a no vote finalist. Froslass got 1 (14% of the vote), Garen got 1 (12% of the vote), Azmodan/Tracer both got 2 (28% of the vote), Dan got 1 (11% of the vote), and Theodora got 1 (10% of the vote).

The average difference between 1st & 2nd in terms of vote % across all games was 28.89%.
Broken down into F3 vs F2, F2s had a 35.15% difference on average, while F3s had an 11.36% average.

Also, for fun, I analyzed jury sizes:
Image

Here's the link if you want to see the data.

Some takeaways: wow, we have had way less F3s than I thought.
F3s are far and away more competitive than F2s in the site's history.
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Iprobablysuck
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Post Post #26  (ISO)  » Wed Jan 31, 2018 10:17 pm

In post 23, PrivateI wrote:
In post 22, Iprobablysuck wrote:Civ had 24 people. This site is faaaaar from emulating the real thing

See: Australian Survivor, seasons 1 and 2.


Fair point but i'm pretty sure when people say ''Survivor'' 99% mean U.S Survivor and it only
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Post Post #27  (ISO)  » Wed Jan 31, 2018 10:18 pm

A while ago you were defining modern survivor as post GoT haha. You're also wrong in saying that Dan got one vote: he got 2. It was 4-4-2 (his breaker won you the game)

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Post Post #28  (ISO)  » Wed Jan 31, 2018 10:29 pm

i'm surprised there was only one unanimous jury
.

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Post Post #29  (ISO)  » Wed Jan 31, 2018 10:35 pm

That's the only one in MS anon games.

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Post Post #30  (ISO)  » Wed Jan 31, 2018 10:50 pm

I don't think non-anons on site have had complete 100% winners either though? MLS is the game I know of at all on site which was a complete clean sweep.
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Post Post #31  (ISO)  » Wed Jan 31, 2018 10:58 pm

Mario Bros was an 8-0-0

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Post Post #32  (ISO)  » Wed Jan 31, 2018 11:04 pm

In post 27, Vijarada wrote:A while ago you were defining modern survivor as post GoT haha. You're also wrong in saying that Dan got one vote: he got 2. It was 4-4-2 (his breaker won you the game)

Well as new things get added, things shift. I suppose GoT is a good starting point but we had GoT

then Season Finale was sort of a misstep

then we had Hogwarts and had a good streak from there out
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Post Post #33  (ISO)  » Wed Jan 31, 2018 11:13 pm

In post 28, zoraster wrote:i'm surprised there was only one unanimous jury

I am that good
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Post Post #34  (ISO)  » Wed Jan 31, 2018 11:32 pm

In post 31, Vijarada wrote:Mario Bros was an 8-0-0

It wasn’t unanimous!

(Because I forgot to vote)
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Post Post #35  (ISO)  » Wed Jan 31, 2018 11:55 pm

Thanks def
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Post Post #36  (ISO)  » Thu Feb 01, 2018 12:00 am

In post 13, racefan12 wrote:It's best when the players don't know whether it will be an F2 or an F3. I'd prefer to see both used roughly half the time to keep that element of surprise present. The person who deserves to win Survivor should be able to do so without being able to plan around that piece of information.

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Post Post #37  (ISO)  » Thu Feb 01, 2018 12:18 am

I prefer F2s because I like the random winners.

Plus I feel like with F3s I feel like on MS we have fewer obvious goats than on the show so split votes and the spoiler effect are more of a problem. The fact that the average winner in F3s only get 48% of the vote is terrible.

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Post Post #38  (ISO)  » Thu Feb 01, 2018 1:55 am

In post 34, D3f3nd3r wrote:
In post 31, Vijarada wrote:Mario Bros was an 8-0-0

It wasn’t unanimous!

(Because I forgot to vote)

One less vote against me <3

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Post Post #39  (ISO)  » Thu Feb 01, 2018 1:56 am

In post 31, Vijarada wrote:Mario Bros was an 8-0-0


We promptly like to forget that one, thanks.
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Post Post #40  (ISO)  » Thu Feb 01, 2018 2:02 am

But yes I’ve always liked F2s because it forces you to put a lot more thought into endgame and how you are actually going to get to FTC. Not that F3s are bad by any means imo. I have Survivor pet peeves that are much more severe than the concept of a final 3.

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Post Post #41  (ISO)  » Thu Feb 01, 2018 5:56 am

Another question is, in f3 games do we now want to move to the new f4 voteout format now that the show is doing it?

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Post Post #42  (ISO)  » Thu Feb 01, 2018 6:01 am

no
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Post Post #43  (ISO)  » Thu Feb 01, 2018 8:45 am

thoughts about a final four

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Post Post #44  (ISO)  » Thu Feb 01, 2018 8:48 am

no
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Post Post #45  (ISO)  » Thu Feb 01, 2018 9:11 am

my complete thoughts on the matter are as follows: don't
"I would prefer not to."

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Post Post #46  (ISO)  » Thu Feb 01, 2018 9:15 am

In post 43, McMenno wrote:thoughts about a final four

Arkham Asylum did this. It also had the entire game as jury which players didn't know about until the end. It was... an experience.
Xalxe: this is xofelf sometimes we call each other names and other times we share emotions
MattyP: Ur an enigma tho when it comes to circadian rhythm and the traditions we hold dear when it comes to the sun and the moon
Xof has a new place for you to ask her questions. Do it upppp

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Post Post #47  (ISO)  » Thu Feb 01, 2018 9:57 am

TBH I prefer F3 to F2. I think the fact that winners have a relatively low % of votes is a sign of overall competitiveness, which is a good thing.

Also, changing it to an F2 makes the endgame more aggressive, but it also disincentivizes going for #bigmovez early, since there's now another round to usurp the royalty on.

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Post Post #48  (ISO)  » Thu Feb 01, 2018 9:58 am

Part of why F3s have been non-competitive on the show also has to do with changes to how Ponderosa works and players caring more about fan-responses to their jury votes in a meta sense. I don't think it's an issue with F3s as much as it is an issue with that metagame.

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Post Post #49  (ISO)  » Thu Feb 01, 2018 1:34 pm

^ I think that's some bs tbh
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