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Post Post #400 (ISO) » Sun Nov 21, 2010 4:15 am

Post by Lady Lambdadelta »

You're kidding me... >.<

How lucky can you get :@
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Post Post #401 (ISO) » Sun Nov 21, 2010 5:03 am

Post by KageLord »

laaaaaaaaawl. Good game, I guess, Orange Team. :P
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Post Post #402 (ISO) » Sun Nov 21, 2010 7:11 am

Post by gandalf5166 »

SHABLAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAMMMMMMMMMMMMMM
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Post Post #403 (ISO) » Sun Nov 21, 2010 7:21 am

Post by Lady Lambdadelta »

Gandalf wins this game based on pure luck.

Then gloats about it.

You can tell that he doesn't win often.
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Post Post #404 (ISO) » Sun Nov 21, 2010 7:24 am

Post by gandalf5166 »

Shablam is gloating? And by the way, I won by expert manipulation of the odds. You think I just placed my pieces randomly like you clearly did?
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Post Post #405 (ISO) » Sun Nov 21, 2010 7:25 am

Post by gandalf5166 »

By the way, NOW I'm gloating.
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Post Post #406 (ISO) » Sun Nov 21, 2010 7:43 am

Post by Lady Lambdadelta »

Expert manipulation of the odds...?

You only placed your pieces once dude. The rest of the placements were by our team.

Try again.

But, I'll let you enjoy your victory in a luck based game.

It's like that kid who thinks he's fucking king of the world when he wins RPS. You just shake your head and laugh. :)
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Post Post #407 (ISO) » Sun Nov 21, 2010 8:01 am

Post by KageLord »

Yikes. Getting vicious.

I mean, it was almost 100% luck, but... that's the way the cookie crumbles. >.>
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Post Post #408 (ISO) » Sun Nov 21, 2010 8:10 am

Post by Lady Lambdadelta »

Don't get me wrong. Well done for winning.

But considering it was gandalf who won, I was kinda expecting this.
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Post Post #409 (ISO) » Sun Nov 21, 2010 8:31 am

Post by gandalf5166 »

I only placed my pieces once because you screwed yourself over. When the enemy has a 14% chance to crit in Fire Emblem, I don't go in for the kill unless I know I can survive the crit.
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Post Post #410 (ISO) » Sun Nov 21, 2010 9:36 am

Post by Lady Lambdadelta »

You realize that YOU ARE FORCED TO FILL ALL EMPTY SLOTS I LEAVE.

Baka. >.<

You had no control over anything after the first round of placements. Stop acting like you are a mastermind. You're not.
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Post Post #411 (ISO) » Sun Nov 21, 2010 9:40 am

Post by gandalf5166 »

Yes, but the only reason I didn't is cause you royally fucked up.
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Post Post #412 (ISO) » Sun Nov 21, 2010 10:30 am

Post by Lady Lambdadelta »

Yeah... I royally fucked up a luck challenge.

LOL UR SO SMART GANDALF <3
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Post Post #413 (ISO) » Sun Nov 21, 2010 10:30 am

Post by KageLord »

Actually, by the odds, I'm pretty sure LL was playing the right strategy. The only difference I would have done was going for all the low numbers. It shouldn't make any difference, but for some reason mallow got low numbers on the rolls consistently. It's very likely just a coincidence... but why not go for it? :P

She made max odds for us to win every time. Doing any less would just be giving greater odds for us to fall into a deeper hole.
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Post Post #414 (ISO) » Sun Nov 21, 2010 10:32 am

Post by Lady Lambdadelta »

KageLord wrote:Actually, by the odds, I'm pretty sure LL was playing the right strategy. The only difference I would have done was going for all the low numbers. It shouldn't make any difference, but
for some reason mallow got low numbers on the rolls consistently
. It's very likely just a coincidence... but why not go for it? :P

She made max odds for us to win every time. Doing any less would just be giving greater odds for us to fall into a deeper hole.

My reasoning for choosing the high numbers.
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Post Post #415 (ISO) » Sun Nov 21, 2010 10:33 am

Post by Lady Lambdadelta »

Of course, either logic is a fallacy of statistics, but it just felt right xD
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Post Post #416 (ISO) » Sun Nov 21, 2010 10:33 am

Post by gandalf5166 »

You honestly would have gone all in on the last roll?
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Post Post #417 (ISO) » Sun Nov 21, 2010 10:43 am

Post by KageLord »

For sure. I would much rather take 86% odds on one roll than 71% and 13% respectively (or 57% and 29%). And, if it had been me submitting, we would have won that round and taken the lead. Not that I blame LL at all.
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Post Post #418 (ISO) » Sun Nov 21, 2010 10:46 am

Post by Lady Lambdadelta »

It's a way to win back pieces.

Gives you the best odds.
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Post Post #419 (ISO) » Sun Nov 21, 2010 10:51 am

Post by gandalf5166 »

Yes, but don't tell me you didn't notice at all that you would auto-lose if the RNG fucked you up. And if you won, you would have gotten ONE piece. How is that a good idea again? The risk vs. reward thing doesn't really work out there.
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Post Post #420 (ISO) » Sun Nov 21, 2010 10:56 am

Post by Lady Lambdadelta »

I knew I would auto lose if I got the wrong number...

The thing was though, if we won that round, we would have taken the lead with that one piece, and you would have to cover 8 triangles with 6 pieces.

Odds would be in our favor for the most part.

You just got really fucking lucky.
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Post Post #421 (ISO) » Sun Nov 21, 2010 10:58 am

Post by gandalf5166 »

Okay, but why not make it just a little more likely for me to win, and not let yourself get fucked over?
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Post Post #422 (ISO) » Sun Nov 21, 2010 11:04 am

Post by Lady Lambdadelta »

Because what's the point?

If I lost that round, and had saved 1 piece in reserve JIC, my odds would have been horrible to win a round ANYWAY. No point in dragging that out.

Nah, I was either gonna put down all pieces, or just 1.
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Post Post #423 (ISO) » Sun Nov 21, 2010 11:05 am

Post by KageLord »

gandalf5166 wrote:Yes, but don't tell me you didn't notice at all that you would auto-lose if the RNG fucked you up. And if you won, you would have gotten ONE piece. How is that a good idea again? The risk vs. reward thing doesn't really work out there.
I see what you mean with risk vs. reward, since it does seem like we are getting such a small reward for risking losing, but you have to take into account odds. It's not so simple as how can we take the least risk and gain something. For example, putting just 1 piece each time would give us small risk and high reward (n-1 pieces every time), but based on a purely statistical basis, there would be a very good chance (much greater than 50%) of us just losing every single time.

It's hard to make an analogy because of the nature of this game, but... I would rather risk everything with pocket aces to get a small chip lead than risk most of it with a middle pair to get a slightly bigger chip lead.
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Post Post #424 (ISO) » Sun Nov 21, 2010 11:15 am

Post by gandalf5166 »

I would have made it slightly greater than 50% odds in my favor every time. But I guess we agree to disagree.
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