Team Mafia 2018: White Flag — Day Six

[Ranmaru]

Don't like how fast the Marquis wagon got going, especially when not everyone has even checked in yet (as far as I am aware).

Making it harder for scum to just ease into the game seems like a good thing to me. What downside do you see to the Marquiswagon?

I think this quote shows an interaction between two buddies, talking about another buddy.

[Thestatusquo]

[Thestatusquo]

also lol did you just "prove me wrong" meme in thread?

Yes
As for the kill spec being WIFOM I 100% should have been the kill so I feel incensed to investigate into anything else, anyway why do you think that's an incorrect conclusion? AD was probably the only person pushing Shadow.

Because AD is exactly the kill I would pick if I was trying to get people to lynch shadow to lose the game.

[Thestatusquo]

Also I take it from this conversation that people don't want to NL today? If that's the case I'd like people to reconsider. Forcing the mafia to take someone else out has a lot of value.

[Ranmaru]

I was thinking the AD kill just keeps the possibility of Shea and I fighting in the air. Shea, talk to me about Quick's push on Dunn, and his push on you.

[Ranmaru]

I'm not really changing my opinion from Shadoweh/Quick today. So I'm fine with lynching today. Are we technically in LYLO today, or is lylo the next day if we mislynch today? (Due to white flag being different)

[Gamma Emerald]

today is mylo

[Ranmaru]

What do you think of my reasoning so far, Gamma? Who do you think is scum with Shadoweh? Finally, do you want to NL or lynch today?

[Thestatusquo]

6 down to 5 with a lynch 4 with a kill endgamed.

I don't see why it would be different. With 2 scum and 2 town scum can force a NL and kill at night so that seems like endgame to me.

Yeah the dan kill has a lot of equity in making me think the pairing is Ran-Gamma. Which I don't think I think it is?

I don't know what I think right now and need to reevaluate.

This is part of why I want to discuss if we're NLing before we get into discussion too hard. If we end up NLing I'm not sure that I think its all that productive to discuss what we think too much today because it allows scum to choose the correct NK if they know what everyone thinks is likely in terms of pairings. If we NL and they don't know too well what we're thinking they might accidentally eliminate one of the pairing possibilities.

[LicketyQuickety]

By my reckoning he's got about 55% chance of being scum.

My I ask precisely where you got this from?

I have a specific process to come up with numbers like these - I make them up. Then, after making up a number for everyone, I add up all the numbers and see if they add up to #ofscum - they probably don't, so I start changing the numbers until they do, making sure to think long and hard about how embarrassed I would be if one of my town reads turned up scum whilst doing so in order to keep my confidence in check. The idea is that the triple constraints of math, embarrassment and not wanting to underestimate my confident scum reads will lead to some semblance of truth. It's a bit involved but I prefer it to making reads list in terms of taking stock because I could actually experience how the existence of null reads like Dunn and ActionDan make me somewhat less confident in Marquis and Eddie.

Spoiler: Answer to the inevitable question

Marquis: 60%
Eddie: 55%
GE: 30%
Postie: 25%
Dunn: 25%
ActionDan: 25%
northsidegal: 20%
LQ: 20%
Davsto: 15%
Lycan: 10%
TSQ: 10%
Ranmaru: 5%

By my reckoning he's got about 55% chance of being scum.

My I ask precisely where you got this from?

I have a specific process to come up with numbers like these - I make them up. Then, after making up a number for everyone, I add up all the numbers and see if they add up to #ofscum - they probably don't, so I start changing the numbers until they do, making sure to think long and hard about how embarrassed I would be if one of my town reads turned up scum whilst doing so in order to keep my confidence in check. The idea is that the triple constraints of math, embarrassment and not wanting to underestimate my confident scum reads will lead to some semblance of truth. It's a bit involved but I prefer it to making reads list in terms of taking stock because I could actually experience how the existence of null reads like Dunn and ActionDan make me somewhat less confident in Marquis and Eddie.

Spoiler: Answer to the inevitable question

Marquis: 60%
Eddie: 55%
GE: 30%
Postie: 25%
Dunn: 25%
ActionDan: 25%
northsidegal: 20%
LQ: 20%
Davsto: 15%
Lycan: 10%
TSQ: 10%
Ranmaru: 5%

Explain your method.. otherwise it just looks like you are making up numbers.

a) he did explain his method. b) he admitted that the method involves coming up with rough guestimates of numbers and then tweaking them with different sources of information.

Sometimes its like you're not even reading the posts you're responding to?

Like you're literally quoting the post where he's explaining his method and telling you that part of it involves making up some numbers and you're responding "EXPLAIN YOUR METHOD! OTHERWISE IT LOOKS LIKE YOU'RE MAKING UP NUMBERS!"

a) he did explain his method. b) he admitted that the method involves coming up with rough guestimates of numbers and then tweaking them with different sources of information.

Sometimes its like you're not even reading the posts you're responding to?

A) He did not explain his method, he literally said he was making up numbers and then arbitralily manipulating them. Seriously? What constitutes a number being what it is? That was more my question. What are these numbers based on?

B) Tell me what the numbers are based on if he explained him method.

a) he said it was a bit arbitrary. The fact that you don't like the method does not mean he didn't explain it.

b) I'll just quote you: "he literally said he was making up numbers and then ... manipulating them"

If you think his method is bad feel free to attack it, but suggesting that he hasn't explained it when literally in your point a you say what he does because he explained it is a bad look.

And I edited out the arbitrarily in your sentence, because while its clear that some amount of the process is guess work, it doesn't look to me like anything he said about it suggests its at random.

key word is "bit." he says the initial numbers are basically guesses.

how is that any different from posting that someone is a "town lean"

how is it different in any way besides the fact that hes trying to quantify his reads differently than you are?

@Shea, what do the numbers actually stand for? That's what he hasn't answered and that is what I think is the most important thing in his whole numbers thing.

How has this never come up in any of the games I've played with you before?

Has this came up before ever?

Can you point me to other times you've talked about this method.

First time I remember using it is actually TM2012 White Flag, which is also the only game I can remember having played with you. I definitely haven't discussed this explicitly before for the same reason it may have been better to avoid having done so here.

@Shea, what do the numbers actually stand for? That's what he hasn't answered and that is what I think is the most important thing in his whole numbers thing.

Chance of being scum, probably, given the context.

Actually

VOTE: Marquis

Why the vote change? I mean, I kind of like it but I don't see quite what prompted it.

Thoughts?

I think Creature is right and it's Shea and shadoweh.

[Thestatusquo]

I WANT EVERYONE TO ADDRESS TO NL CONVERSATION BEFORE WE GET TO SCUM HUNTING FOR THIS REASON.

if we NL today we don't want to have too much discussion because it informs the scum kill too much.

[Thestatusquo]

If we're not NLing today then don't worry about it, but I don't want to NL at the end of 2 weeks of conversation giving the scum a perfect idea of who to kill. If we're NLing we need to do it early.

[Ranmaru]

I say no to NL.

[Davsto]

well ran is probably town

Can you tell me why you think that? I felt kind of similar at the end of the day based on tone, but its hard for me to disregard the rest of how I feel about the slot, but I have a hard time figuring out who his partner would be besides dunn. The only other option is gamma imo.

Also, are we NLing today or are we just going for it? I think my preference is to NL to get the numbers.

Besides many of my scum-Ran reasons sort of being based in my head and on paper around a Ran/Dunn team, the scum!Ran that defended CES like he did would have quickly let the Dun mislynch happen rather than arguing against it as he did, as it would help discredit me somewhat (a hard Ran-pusher) and reduce the heat on him (since I know I at least considered a lot of the Ran-scum evidence to come from him and Dun).

Obviously that could just be improved scumplay yesterday but it seems a bit of a stretch to say that.

[LicketyQuickety]

Also, shea's hammer on CES is pretty shady and I don't care what the arguments he gave for doing so are/were.

[Thestatusquo]

well ran is probably town

Can you tell me why you think that? I felt kind of similar at the end of the day based on tone, but its hard for me to disregard the rest of how I feel about the slot, but I have a hard time figuring out who his partner would be besides dunn. The only other option is gamma imo.

Also, are we NLing today or are we just going for it? I think my preference is to NL to get the numbers.

Besides many of my scum-Ran reasons sort of being based in my head and on paper around a Ran/Dunn team, the scum!Ran that defended CES like he did would have quickly let the Dun mislynch happen rather than arguing against it as he did, as it would help discredit me somewhat (a hard Ran-pusher) and reduce the heat on him (since I know I at least considered a lot of the Ran-scum evidence to come from him and Dun).

Obviously that could just be improved scumplay yesterday but it seems a bit of a stretch to say that.

Looks like there's no interest in a NL. :/

The only team pairs that make sense to me if we buy that Ran is town are

LQ - Gamma
LQ - Shadoweh.

I don't think shadoweh - gamma would make much sense because of the meta dive that cheet did.

I am not sure if I buy LQ as scum, I don't know that I believe he's capable of making those pushes as scum, but maybe I'm giving scum-LQ too much credit. Maybe posting really bad nonsense is NAI for him?

I need to reevaluate and reread. I should dive some LQ scum games too.

[Thestatusquo]

well ran is probably town

Can you tell me why you think that? I felt kind of similar at the end of the day based on tone, but its hard for me to disregard the rest of how I feel about the slot, but I have a hard time figuring out who his partner would be besides dunn. The only other option is gamma imo.

Also, are we NLing today or are we just going for it? I think my preference is to NL to get the numbers.

Besides many of my scum-Ran reasons sort of being based in my head and on paper around a Ran/Dunn team, the scum!Ran that defended CES like he did would have quickly let the Dun mislynch happen rather than arguing against it as he did, as it would help discredit me somewhat (a hard Ran-pusher) and reduce the heat on him (since I know I at least considered a lot of the Ran-scum evidence to come from him and Dun).

Obviously that could just be improved scumplay yesterday but it seems a bit of a stretch to say that.

Why did you vote for ranmaru all day and then switch to dunn reluctantly if many of your reasons for voting ranmaru were based on Dunn being scum together???

This doesn't really ring true to me.

Am I losing my mind?

[Gamma Emerald]

I think we probably shouldn't NL at this point
Also I thought it over again and does anyone think the game stalls on Marquis and then later shifts wagon to CES if both are scum? Like no matter what that whole d3 stall is my biggest concern for any possibility of Shadoweh being scum

[LicketyQuickety]

well ran is probably town

Can you tell me why you think that? I felt kind of similar at the end of the day based on tone, but its hard for me to disregard the rest of how I feel about the slot, but I have a hard time figuring out who his partner would be besides dunn. The only other option is gamma imo.

Also, are we NLing today or are we just going for it? I think my preference is to NL to get the numbers.

Besides many of my scum-Ran reasons sort of being based in my head and on paper around a Ran/Dunn team, the scum!Ran that defended CES like he did would have quickly let the Dun mislynch happen rather than arguing against it as he did, as it would help discredit me somewhat (a hard Ran-pusher) and reduce the heat on him (since I know I at least considered a lot of the Ran-scum evidence to come from him and Dun).

Obviously that could just be improved scumplay yesterday but it seems a bit of a stretch to say that.

Looks like there's no interest in a NL. :/

The only team pairs that make sense to me if we buy that Ran is town are

LQ - Gamma
LQ - Shadoweh.

I don't think shadoweh - gamma would make much sense because of the meta dive that cheet did.

I am not sure if I buy LQ as scum, I don't know that I believe he's capable of making those pushes as scum, but maybe I'm giving scum-LQ too much credit. Maybe posting really bad nonsense is NAI for him?

I need to reevaluate and reread. I should dive some LQ scum games too.

I'm literally never voting for LQ unless someone convinces me that the arguments for why I think he's town are wrong.

No one who is voting him has even attempted to do that.

I will switch over to dunn if that will counter this absolutely bizarre wagon. OR you people could come join me on ranmaru because no one but gamma has put any effort into interacting with my case.

Dan where the fuck are you. Davsto where the fuck are you.

[Thestatusquo]

those quotes are in no way incongruous with each other?

[LicketyQuickety]

those quotes are in no way incongruous with each other?

You're working up your progression on me so that you can vote me.

[Thestatusquo]

I am considering you, since I kind of doubt ranmaru is scum right now and that means the whole game doesn't make sense to me.

I'm considering other people too. I'm not prepared to vote or pressure anyone until I have time to deep dive everything.

[Thestatusquo]

which is kind of why I wanted to no lynch because I was hoping to get a kill on one of the people I am now unsure about

[LicketyQuickety]

VOTE: No Lynch

[Ranmaru]

I'm interested in seeing what you find, Shea. I also want to see what Shadoweh says.

Gamma, why do you think the Marquis wagon stalled, let's start with that.