Team Mafia 2018: White Flag — Day Six

[Ranmaru]

Quick: Can you go into why you believe it's Shea and Shadoweh now, instead of yesterday, where you thought he was town. I want you to go into that. Then tell me what you think of Shadoweh. (Since I know you had her as null before)

[LicketyQuickety]

Quick: Can you go into why you believe it's Shea and Shadoweh now, instead of yesterday, where you thought he was town. I want you to go into that. Then tell me what you think of Shadoweh. (Since I know you had her as null before)

I said based on play I had Marquis/Shadoweh as Scum.

I just gave something to look at regarding shea that no one commented on.

[Gamma Emerald]

Votecount 3.6

Marquis(4)

~ Cogito Ergo Sum, Dunnstral, Gamma Emerald, Ranmaru

Dunnstral(2)

~ ActionDan, Thestatusquo

Cogito Ergo Sum(2)

~ Lycanfire, Davsto

Thestatusquo(1)

~ LicketyQuickety


Not Voting (2): Marquis, northsidegal

With 11 alive it takes 6 to lynch.

Day 3 deadline is in (expired on 2018-03-02 07:15:00)

FLAVOR

This is an automated vote count generated by a tool written by MathBlade. It goes much smoother with exact votes but will try to detect bold votes and misspellings. If you have issues during this beta, please get MathBlade.

Let's take a look at this votecount LQ posted. Who is the leading wagon? Marquis. Who is among the secondary wagons? CES. How many posts were between this and the point where I tried to revive the game over a day later? 37. Average posts per day on Day 3? 104. So while we had a wagon on someone else and the secondary suspect was our flipped scum, there were about a third of the average posts for the game day for the one day follwing the wagon hitting the point where it peaked before the stall. And this isn't even checking things before Ran's Marquis vote. I would be astonished if anyone tried to tell me the game wasn't stalled then.
this is all based on Aneninen's unexpected gamestall tell for anyone wondering

[Ranmaru]

Gamma: There wasn't much movement from others, like Action Dan, NSG, and Lycanfire. So, I think it was stalled because mostly, people stuck to their guns. The only reason CES picked up steam was because Lycanfire, Davsto, NSG were sitting on him. Then Quick, you, and Shea hopped on afterwards due to NSG's case. Why does it stall and move to CES? I think I just answered that question. Yet, you think it's possible it stalled because she was town? That would mean that town overall noticed she was townie (when this wasn't the case) and rejected CES's push. She got to L-1, so I don't think that's the case. Although I unvoted, because I was wary of Shea's vote.

I think we shouldn't just consider the wagon stall. We should also consider Marquis's individual play, and their interactions with CES and association to CES. I want you to ISO Marquis, compare to Shadoweh. Then I want you to ISO CES, looking for association to see if they seem like scum together.

[Ranmaru]

Shea, when you are around, I want to talk to you. I think the team of LQ-Shadoweh is most likely.

[Ranmaru]

Davsto: Who do you think is scum today?

[Shadoweh]

Hello my dudes, this is basically a prod dodge as I'm wrecked from a night of busywork and I do most of my posting from work. (I'm going back to sleep after posting this.) We thought the most likely scenario was a LQ/Dan team so him not being here is pretty weird. Something like a Ran/Gamma team doesn't seem likely so I'm wondering if LQ/TSQ or someone with Davsto makes sense. I'd rather be impatient and just vote so we can have some real arguments but my team said that's probably reckless. :V

It's nice to know Ran still thinks I'm scum with the person I want to lynch the most. I don't understand you sometimes but I'm not the kind of person who plays chicken like that.

[MathBlade]

Votecount 5.2

No Lynch(1)

~ LicketyQuickety(6)

Not Voting (5): Davsto(2), Gamma Emerald(5), Shadoweh(1), Thestatusquo(14), Ranmaru(11)

With 6 alive it takes 4 to lynch.

Day 5 deadline is in (expired on 2018-04-04 04:41:07)

[Davsto]

Why did you vote for ranmaru all day and then switch to dunn reluctantly if many of your reasons for voting ranmaru were based on Dunn being scum together???

This doesn't really ring true to me.

Am I losing my mind?

To a certain extent it was a silly matter of pride - to me, a Ran lynch was much more satisfying to end the game on than a Dun lynch. Plus there were a couple of Ran things (e.g. his CES defence) that were independent of Dun, and with Ran being a higher volume poster it meant my read was more confident since there was more to go off. My Dun vote wasn't an "ugh I guess I'll vote this to prevent nolynch", it was "my preferred scumlynch isn't an option so I'll go for this slightly less preferred (but still likely scum) lynch".

Davsto: Who do you think is scum today?

Genuinely? Not a fucking clue. One of my main two scumreads flipped town (Dun), my other main one I now have doubts enough that I don't wish to lynch (you), and one of my people who I was going to look at harder today has also flipped town (AD). I've been left in... quite the predicament, because honestly I've weakened on my shadoweh scumread now so I literally think that all four of GE/LQ/TSQ/Shadoweh could potentially be scum.

Honestly I'm up for a nolynch too because literally any death would be useful to me (except my own but that could still help the gamestate). I was doubting it because it does mean we have to get the entire town voting scum tomorrow to win (since scum won't bus to lynch) but I'm so stuck on reads it'd be helpful. Not gonna vote yet because I don't know how many it takes to nolynch.

@mod - How many does it take to nolynch? Is it the number of players it takes to lynch (i.e. 4) or is it a number of players such that a lynch cannot be reached with the remained (i.e. 3)?

[Ranmaru]

Why did your shadoweh scumread weaken? What do you think of my reasons for suspecting Shadoweh/Marquis?

Gamma, Shea, talk to me here.

[Gamma Emerald]

Gamma: There wasn't much movement from others, like Action Dan, NSG, and Lycanfire. So, I think it was stalled because mostly, people stuck to their guns. The only reason CES picked up steam was because Lycanfire, Davsto, NSG were sitting on him. Then Quick, you, and Shea hopped on afterwards due to NSG's case. Why does it stall and move to CES? I think I just answered that question. Yet, you think it's possible it stalled because she was town? That would mean that town overall noticed she was townie (when this wasn't the case) and rejected CES's push. She got to L-1, so I don't think that's the case. Although I unvoted, because I was wary of Shea's vote.

I think we shouldn't just consider the wagon stall. We should also consider Marquis's individual play, and their interactions with CES and association to CES. I want you to ISO Marquis, compare to Shadoweh. Then I want you to ISO CES, looking for association to see if they seem like scum together.

Just because town doesn't move doesn't mean I can't call it a scum motivated gamestall. I still feel like it was.

[Gamma Emerald]

Also I'm gonna go back to those opening pages like I did d3 and read them again with what I know now

[Thestatusquo]

Why did your shadoweh scumread weaken? What do you think of my reasons for suspecting Shadoweh/Marquis?

Gamma, Shea, talk to me here.

I dont want to because there seems to be some momentum towards a no lynch and as I have explained if we're going to do that I absolutely do not want to discuss things that give scum a better idea of who their kill should be.

[Shadoweh]

My team updated me to say I should shut up and no-lynch. implosion seems to think it would help solve the game.

[MathBlade]

Why did you vote for ranmaru all day and then switch to dunn reluctantly if many of your reasons for voting ranmaru were based on Dunn being scum together???

This doesn't really ring true to me.

Am I losing my mind?

To a certain extent it was a silly matter of pride - to me, a Ran lynch was much more satisfying to end the game on than a Dun lynch. Plus there were a couple of Ran things (e.g. his CES defence) that were independent of Dun, and with Ran being a higher volume poster it meant my read was more confident since there was more to go off. My Dun vote wasn't an "ugh I guess I'll vote this to prevent nolynch", it was "my preferred scumlynch isn't an option so I'll go for this slightly less preferred (but still likely scum) lynch".

Davsto: Who do you think is scum today?

Genuinely? Not a fucking clue. One of my main two scumreads flipped town (Dun), my other main one I now have doubts enough that I don't wish to lynch (you), and one of my people who I was going to look at harder today has also flipped town (AD). I've been left in... quite the predicament, because honestly I've weakened on my shadoweh scumread now so I literally think that all four of GE/LQ/TSQ/Shadoweh could potentially be scum.

Honestly I'm up for a nolynch too because literally any death would be useful to me (except my own but that could still help the gamestate). I was doubting it because it does mean we have to get the entire town voting scum tomorrow to win (since scum won't bus to lynch) but I'm so stuck on reads it'd be helpful. Not gonna vote yet because I don't know how many it takes to nolynch.

@mod - How many does it take to nolynch? Is it the number of players it takes to lynch (i.e. 4) or is it a number of players such that a lynch cannot be reached with the remained (i.e. 3)?

It takes 4 to no lynch and end the day early.

[Gamma Emerald]

Would a no lynch be advisable at this point still? We seem to have 3/4 needed

[Ranmaru]

Only if you have no idea who is scum. I am confident we can win today.

[LicketyQuickety]

Only if you have no idea who is scum. I am confident we can win today.

[Ranmaru]

I will compose a case later, and propose why I think we should lynch today.

[Thestatusquo]

I wish we were all in favor of a no lynch or all opposed. We're in this middle ground where we're still posting information for the scum but might not NL.

So I will propose a deadline.

I'm going to VOTE: No Lynch

If this doesn't happen in the next 48 hours then I'll switch to try hard trying to lynch today and will not consider a NL after that point.

[Davsto]

VOTE: No lynch

NL-1

Not ignoring questions, just won't answer until tomorrow because nolynching and not giving scum info and stuff

[Thestatusquo]

Also I will be VLA more than usual this weekend. I'll be out of town without computer access.

[Gamma Emerald]

VOTE: No Lynch
I think this is the best option

[Thestatusquo]

I thought you said you were opposed to NL? What changed your mind?

[Gamma Emerald]

I was only not okay with it if we generated too much content. Given that we still were voting it I figured we hadn't so I decided it was better just to do it.