Team Mafia 2018: Mafiosi Revolution (Over)

[Kagami]

VOTE: Spiffeh

[Kagami]

As cathartic as that would be, Spiffeh is probably actually scum.

[Kagami]

Hiya spiff, how goes it~

[Kagami]

it's okay mulch, maybe lq, ucv, creature, or sheep can help you

they're all stellar scum players

If you're being sarcastic here, then I could vote Mulch. I know none of those players.

[Kagami]

@Cheet: Seems unlikely to me that Una made up that he believed he had missed a lot of game-time, whereas I think he'd be more alert to the gamestate as scum.

[Kagami]

VOTE: Mulch

[Kagami]

Hiya cabd~

[Kagami]

So why is mulch town now?

Chesskid said pretty much exactly what transcend had said: That he's >50% to be scum purely by team makeup.

[Kagami]

Def not buying transcend scum.

[Kagami]

Why is spiffeh town as well, Cabd?

[Kagami]

Kagami: could you take a stab at convincing me why Transcend isn't scum?

I think his reads and positions are sensible and the manner with which he's interpreting posts doesn't seem tainted by knowledge that the target is town. It seems like he's picking a lot of fights that are reasonably likely to go poorly for him, where there was lots of low-hanging fruit elsewhere.

[Kagami]

where there was lots of low-hanging fruit elsewhere.

Like who?

Pretty much anyone who hadn't posted much at that point.

[Kagami]

Great, then we agree he's town.

[Kagami]

VOTE: chara

It's scum

Chara is town.

[Kagami]

Spiff, who are your townreads who aren't named Spiffeh?

[Kagami]

Just imp and cheet?

[Kagami]

Cabd, are you around?

[Kagami]

Spiff, you're deliberately shying away from using Team Mafia meta.

[Kagami]

Because you have too few townreads, and are living in a world of nullness where nullness shouldn't exist.

[Kagami]

Cabd, are you around?

I am.

My earlier question re:mulch stands, and add to it wondering what YOU think of my dance invitations?

I like dancing, though I'm not entirely sure what you expect.

My shortlist is {Firebringer, Patrick, Mulch, maybe Spiff}. Starting to waffle a bit on transcend, as the geometry is all wrong in a couple places, though I'm not sure I would ascribe scum motivation to that.

My teammates have no interest in reading this game, which is part of what makes Mulch a great lynch outside of some really good reason to think he's town, which has yet to be provided.

What's your shortlist?

[Kagami]

Why does scum-mulch pull the whole mason thing just to come out and say Tor is town regardless of his own alignment? How does that help him?

Because he knows he could never maintain the illusion of being a mason forever? It seems like it was just a big show of championing tora as town, who from the sounds of it, was destined to be townread by meta anyway.

[Kagami]

Help me buss Spiffeh pls.

I would have to feel a little better about kmd before going that route.

[Kagami]

I have no idea about Tora really, that's just the impression I got from the thread.

I don't think I know anyone on that team.

[Kagami]

It's true that I'm entirely unsure where you're coming from.

[Kagami]

It's true that I'm entirely unsure where you're coming from.

My posts on the subject have been as clear as I can get.

Walk me through it again, specifically the part where scum-mulch has already claimed a masonry with Toranaga, and then you believe he likely exits it in a fashion other than the way he did.

[Kagami]

The word is not especially, it's ~only~ and therein lies the problem.

[Kagami]

So you meant "I don't think scum-mulch claims masons with town-tora?"

[Kagami]

Kmd, the exit is scum-indicative if anything, since town-mulch is reasonably likely to come to a different conclusion from the "reaction test."

If you believe the entry makes him town, then thats one thing, but that's not at all what you said.

[Kagami]

Katsuki says Patrick 100% town.

[Kagami]

Kmd, do you mind fleshing out the mulch townread?

The mason claim thing is meaningless. He clearly planned to call Tora town pre-game (120), so why does town-mulch claim mason with her?

[Kagami]

Patrick is prob town by composition, but Katsuki says town independent of that and claims 100% read accuracy.

I believe Tora by composition, though that's due to content generated this game.

I have others, but I can't speak to them since they come from my having read the other games and making lateral inferences.

[Kagami]

I think you're much more likely town than earlier, spiff, if that makes you feel better. My shortlist is very different now.

[Kagami]

Well, 50% different.

[Kagami]

I didn't expect any specific person, I just expected more people.

[Kagami]

Well, I guess I expected some confirmation of Tora and maybe Chara.

[Kagami]

I'm waiting for something from him.

[Kagami]

I don't know what clarity you're imagining, kmd, but the statement made in 630 and the clarification in 1034 are contradictory and completely detached from the actual circumstances surrounding the claim.

[Kagami]

Why does scum-mulch pull the whole mason thing just to come out and say Tor is town regardless of his own alignment? How does that help him?

This is not "why does scum-mulch pull the mason thing?" This is why, given that he's done so, does he just come out and say Tor is town. This is utter nonsense; it's equivalent to "why would scum call someone town who is actually town?"

This is especially silly in the context that he considers Tora guaranteed town pre-game. Do you think scum-mulch pretends to be ambivalent about Tora's alignment when she surely expects anyone familiar with her to be confident she's town?

It was a "claim" that was obviously never going to stick unless they are either actually masons or scum together in which case why claim so early? So what is he even trying to accomplish as scum? He's either joking or genuinely reaction testing. With that in mind, when Tora reacted, Mulch told us Tora is town regardless of his own alignment. If Mulch is town, he says it proves his reaction test is genuine and Tora is town. If Mulch flips scum, he says Tora is still town. This serves no purpose for Mulch as scum unless again they are BOTH scum. I did town read Tora's reaction, so that makes that unlikely for me. So yeah, the whole thing does NOTHING for scum-Mulch but for town-Mulch it helped him read Tora and in his mind prove Tora's alignment to the rest of us as well.

This

is

"why does scum-mulch pull the mason thing?" and a claim that as town he claims tora town to prove that it was an effective reaction test.

But that's rubbish. 120 makes it very clear that Mulch had written Tora off as town pre-game.

You now say he did this for impact (1224)? Why doesn't this revise anything for you, why are you insisting you've been clear about your townread on mulch?

[Kagami]

Is transcend more likely that skirt? Are the >s indicating greater likelihood of scum-picking?

[Kagami]

O wait, misread that.

[Kagami]

The odds of a team having N scum PMs is as follows, btw:

0: 30.0%
1: 40.8%
2: 22.3%
3: 6.1%
4: 0.83%
5: 0.05%

[Kagami]

I have absolutely no idea why you think the "regardless of his own flip" thing is meaningful, and I have no idea why you don't think he'd tell us that Tora is confirmed Town as scum.

It seems nearly 100% mandatory for him to call Tora town regardless of his alignment.

[Kagami]

LQ is about the only person on mulch's team who would take scum as well. There's >50% Mulch takes scum if they get 1 PM and near 100% if they get 2.

Mulch has no depth and no breadth at all. He thinks exactly one of myself and transcend is scum, yet doesn't care to concern himself with finding the other two. He hasexpressed one townread, which he had determined pre-game.

Mulch "blows up" apparently because he's been brought all the way to L-6 by the two people voting him, both of whom are his only scumreads.

He is defended in goofy ways by two players: Cabd and kmd.

I don't even know what to think about Cabd's read beyond that it seems silly.

Kmd's read seems to be entirely driven by the mason schtick that was almost certainly premeditated pre-game regardless of his alignment. Kmd's insistence that he's been clear about his read means that it is also the ~only~ reason why he's townreading Mulch, and it's incredibly shallow, yet Kmd's positions seem to follow heavily from Mulch-town and there's no evidence at of self-criticism. I love the Mathdino posts, and I think mathdino is doing a terrific job of efforting and being town for kmd, but kmd is not being town for kmd.

I don't like mulch, I don't like the defense of mulch, and I like darn near everyone else. I can see the case on Transcend, but the problem with that is that mulch is probably scum, which makes Transcend pretty unlikely to be.

[Kagami]

Why do you have FB town?

[Kagami]

Why do you have FB town?

Gunsmith claim

I had missed that o.O

[Kagami]

I only have one reason for reading him because the way he plays makes it hard to take him seriously. He has like 300 posts. Probably two are readable. So good luck finding them. As I've said before, if you want to policy Lynch him I'm not against it especially because it's what my team wants anyway. It just feels weird to do it when I think he's town. I will say I'd rather Lynch mulch than cabd.

Your recent positions are basically in line with mulch's, is that not a reason to townread him?

[Kagami]

THE reason to townread Mulch is if you think Transcend is scum.

[Kagami]

That's it? What elaboration do you want?

[Kagami]

Option 2 is completely pointless, in my eyes. It's what we had before when godfathers were whitelisted, and before that when framers were whitelisted, but the threat of a POSSIBLE godfather doesn't affect people's play.

The essential purpose of godfathers and so on was never to feed false results to cops. It was to alter the meta so that cops' results are taken with a grain of salt. Godfathers failed to do this, and that's why they were judged as more trouble than they're worth in the end.

I do want the meta to have counters to cops, lots of them, more of them than currently exist. Personally, I'd love to see some games with cops that know for a fact that there are tailors out there to trip them up.

That

would be a fun counter.

Team disagrees, but this makes me think GS plausible and implies mafia doc.

[Kagami]

That doesn't follow from the content you quoted -_-

I'd happily make a market on mulch-scum of .5/.65, which alone is sufficient to support the "TvS" thing, though I wouldn't phrase it like that.

[Kagami]

Let's see...

- over 50% chance scum prior to posting a single thing.
- the mason thing that kmd finds so towny doesn't make sense from a town perspective; he was going to call you town anyway, there's no reason fakeclaim mason unless he was hoping to get reciprocation or some other sort of townread out of it.
- AD says so
- Keeps harping on the notion that lynching him is "policy"
- 0 breadth in general. Even his recent townreads post (after I called him out on it) are all easy
- Scumreads are bad and overly sparse
- Blow up a few pages back makes no sense

[Kagami]

Re: Cabd

sounds like he's claiming Friendly Neighbor, which probably makes him town.

Independent of that, I've been a little fence-ish on him in general, but I have a reason (which I don't think will be respected by the crowd) to think that he's unlikely to pick up a scum PM for him team.

I remain curious what exactly he expects from me, as he knows I'm not a super-interactive player. I continue to expect something and remain patiently waiting.

[Kagami]

Amrock = mulch?

[Kagami]

Am I correct in interpreting your overuse of "Amrock" as a means to convey that you're highly familiar with his play?

How confidently do you townread him?

[Kagami]

hmmm....

[Kagami]

I am town, Ginn is town, patrick is town, Spiff is being scum in a non-mafia sense, but I'd guess town there too.

[Kagami]

I also feel his scumread on transcend makes sense because transcend's push on mulch is too strong for the little transcend has presented as reasons, and the 'reaction test' with calling me scum and then pushing mulch for not immediately acting out on it is cringe level scummy if you ask me. have you actually read that push?

I read this in the opposite way. While I don't think that it was a valid "reaction test," I don't disbelieve that the intent was for it to be, and I think the entire thing and the conclusions derived are unlikely to be generated by scum.

[Kagami]

I don't even know where to begin with that.

There's a subtle difference between calling an FN claim is probably coming from town (and if you don't see where I gathered that, then I don't know how to help you) and believing an FN claim that changes into a 3-shot FN claim after it gets "roleblocked" 3 times and has a special modifier that makes shots get consumed when blocked unlike every other role in that game.

[Kagami]

The reason an FN claim, if that's what Cabd is indeed softing, implies probably town is that very few scum are as ballsy as MS was and very few towns as gullible as that of Inu Yasha Mafia.

[Kagami]

I only just realized that's the game we were in together. I was thinking it was Nati's MTG game where we couldn't win because there it multiball with a bulletproof IC.

I vaguely recall playing with you in some game where Juls was scum and I was a Dragon or something like that.

[Kagami]

No, the other game we played was another scum-game, Homestuck, though I had to bail from mafia midgame due to work commitments, which makes me see where you're coming from a bit.

And no, it's not really in the back of my mind because that circumstance was ridiculous at the time, and is even more crazy in the context of an explicitly normal game. If Cabd claims FN, then he's 100% off the table D1.

[Kagami]

Right now I'm just mulling over whether or not to respect Tora's read, which will largely depends on the answer AD provides in our PT.

[Kagami]

I'm too friendly to lynch!

Imma lynch you cuz lynch all liars.

You can't say that 1265 would be your only post today because you just made post 1268.

So you've made two posts when you said you'd do only one.

I gotchu right where I want you scumfucko

Some neighbor you are :~(


I'm seeing other people now.

[Kagami]

Alright Cabd, plz help.

[Kagami]

I'm pretty sure you should have realized I'm town independent of having outed your obvious soft.

[Kagami]

@cabd

1280 is a pretty good summary of the mulch case.

Also pretty sure that FB is scum, but I'm not going to lynch a gunslinger claim and supporting that read would require breaking rules.

Confident town on:
Cabd, Aristophanes, Patrick, UnaBombaH, Ginngie, Cheetory6, Toranaga

Probably town on implosion and Kmd4390. Still think Transcend town.

Originally had Chara town because of her feeling that Transcend should have townread her and that he's scum for having failed in that regard, but I'm a little more waffly now.

Liked Spiffeh when I didn't like kmd, but he's being a scumbag doing absolutely nothing but fishing for lateral interactions.

[Kagami]

I had you as reasonably likely scum because your reason for town-reading mulch, who continues to be obvious scum, was absurd.

I've eased off that because I now remember you from Inu Yasha.

[Kagami]

Chesskid read the first 22 pages of the game and ended with Mulch, Fire, Cheet with kmd/Implosion if one of those is town.

Ginn, you're not allowed to be an idiot.

[Kagami]

So I gather from 2 that you don't think anything alignment indicative happened there (which is silly, but whatever), but clearly Mulch does.

Now when you hop back a few pages and read Mulch's reaction to what happened, which of the following do you see from Mulch?

"Gosh, this makes you town and I'm happy that I now have another townread and have been corrected in my dumb-town ways"

or do you see

"Wow, that's cheating and it's rubbish. I hope you get modkilled for this, because it's completely unfair that my mislynch is going to get away because of this."

[Kagami]

Liked Spiffeh when I didn't like kmd, but he's being a scumbag doing absolutely nothing but fishing for lateral interactions.

What does this even mean?

I may be crazy, but it seems to me like you're deliberately fishing for townreads that seem to come from knowledge that a team already has a scum PM elsewhere, and are trying to be very careful about not giving away similar information.

[Kagami]

I don't think cheet is scum, I'm just relaying what chess said.

FB will sort itself out, especially after Mulch flips scum, so I don't really care about that.

[Kagami]

No, I would appreciate additional sanity asap.

[Kagami]

What sort of a question is that?

When I read it I don't feel like it's scum fabricating a case. I expect you to reject it, obviously.

I think the fact that they have had literally no reads progression since their first vote makes them highly likely mafia

viewtopic.php?p=9686140#p9686140
viewtopic.php?p=9688286#p9688286
viewtopic.php?p=9688353#p9688353

[Kagami]

I don't know ginn much, but my team does, and they insist ginn wouldn't take a scum PM unless that team got 3+

[Kagami]

He also looks to be taking pants off head, which is a good thing, and I don't think he misses cabd claim with a scum PT.

[Kagami]

I don't know ginn much, but my team does, and they insist ginn wouldn't take a scum PM unless that team got 3+

I just don't see the obvtown Ginngie I'm used to here.

Pants off head?

I personally don't feel like this is the ginn of 10 kilos, but that's an N of 1, and team says town.

[Kagami]

Can ask, so far only chesskid and AD have read much of the game, and only incompletely, but I think CK has significant Ginn experience and hadn't voiced concerned.

I'll request an iso-ing.

[Kagami]

Cabd doesn't pick up the scum PM unless their team got at least 2 and maybe 3.

[Kagami]

Hey Spiffeh, how about, in your next post, you rank every player from each team from most likely to pick a scum PM to least.

[Kagami]

Nah, you can do it now; I believe in you.

[Kagami]

Why are you suddenly interested in this, Fire?

[Kagami]

You mean, responding to a direct question from Spiffeh?

[Kagami]

Did you read the post you're referring to?

[Kagami]

I have read enough of the other games / consulted with my team to have a good idea who is scum where.

From there, I have reads that are relevant to this game, which I'm not allowed to explain.

Yes, this is a stupid format that's hardly mafia, but that's the game. It's super fun.

[Kagami]

No, because I have little certainty in those reads, but they do refine my opinions here in ways that can't be justified.

[Kagami]

I'm telling everyone that we should lynch mulch, and I'm probably right.

[Kagami]

Well, you're making a mistake.

Let's assume I'm town, who do you think is scum here? Do you think it's Chara?

[Kagami]

I think someone said a while ago that Mulch is good as town. Now, I'm pretty skeptical of that, given his insistence that his town-game is identical to his scum-game, but let's imagine it's true.

100% of his scumreads throughout the entire game are town. Hmmmmmmmmmmmm.

[Kagami]

If ur Town Im assuming mulch is scum

Yay, goodpost.

[Kagami]

4 Kagami (Firebringer, Mulch, Ginngie, Chara)

I'm actually not seeing anyone on this wagon I think is scum.

I have a funny feeling that you're going to regret this one as much as I hope you regret that Inu Yasha post.

[Kagami]

o my, I'm rereading the end of inu yasha and viewtopic.php?p=6296227#p6296227 was a terrific post.

[Kagami]

@Patrick

Depends on my role, the setup, and how much time I have.

In general, I just try to find the correct lynch as town. As scum I usually try to support my partners.

If you're interested in meta:

Someone mentioned Vanilla Nightless from last Team Mafia, which remains my only scum loss and was generally a very different game than usual. While I don't think I played a strong game, it was entirely unwinnable in a format that allowed trust-tell replace-ins that produced multiple almost-guaranteed-towns in a format without kills.

More representative kagami scumgames are mystic mafia: viewtopic.php?f=54&t=69791, monogatari as miko miko dance party (I made pretty much 100% of the posts) viewtopic.php?f=56&t=62745, and Inu Yasha viewtopic.php?f=56&t=58247 (which remains my favorite).

For town games, just go through FakeGod games. I'm in a lot of them, am town in all of them, and generally vote support the D1 scum lynch and die N1.

[Kagami]

I don't get it, spiff. I think that list is spot on and could prob be expanded if you consulted espeonage.

So why is it strange that I expected more than implosion and cheet? Ginn, aristo, and FB are unlikely to be scum by that list as well.

[Kagami]

Keep in mind, Fire didnt take the PM for this game initially.

What makes him town by play?

[Kagami]

Things are getting hard to make fit in a world without Cabd-scum, but shrug.

[Kagami]

Hi Kagami I asked you things.

Here's a summarized rundown if it makes it easier:

i) Why would you think that Transcend voting someone who wasn't around at all would look better on him? Wouldn't it look like he was doing nothing?

ii) Was wanting to policy lynch seriously factoring a lot into your stance on him in the earlygame? Do have any kind of history of advocating for policy lynching?

iii)

I would have to feel a little better about kmd before going that route.

"What exactly did KMD have to do with Spiff at this point?
You weren't voting him and he wasn't voting Spiff?
Also don't really understand why you felt bad about KMD here at this point. (assuming I'm reading this post correctly)"

i) I don't remember the context of this. Transcend looked towny enough early game; I especially didn't think that the "mulch reaction test" and the thought behind it was likely to be generated by scum.

ii) A "policy lynch" isn't just one thing, it means lots of different things, and really just exists as a term to be used to discredit a lynch that is proposed for reasons that aren't "content" driven. So here's a little tangent for you:

Towns on mafiascum lose for a reason, despite a "balanced" game being typically defined as one where town will win half the time if they act completely randomly. Why does this happen when there's so much amazing evidence that they should be picking up and using to perform much better than chance? The answer is that most people wildly overestimate the strength of their "reads" and are quite happy to forget about those instances where they're wrong. The evidence people gather is meaningful, but on the level of +/- a few percent.

If there's a player on mafiascum who can name a player each day as scum and be correct 50% of the time without the assistance of PRs or claims, that player would be the God of mafia, and town would win almost every game that they just listen to him and supplement his/her reads with power roles.

So that brings us back to this game. If Ether had started the game by flipping a coin and telling us "If I got heads, I made Mulch scum, but if I got tails, I made him town," then Mulch is a terrific lynch, especially in a 3-15 game where chance is only 20%. I would happily advocate it all day long in the absence of really, really compelling evidence to the contrary. I don't care about this stupid "scum can hide behind that so easily, so being competent is super scummy" line.

Now, Ether didn't quite do that, but the magic of team mafia did. In the absence of any posting, Mulch was a really, really good lynch, and putting the label of "policy" on it is just a discredit for what was almost a no-brainer. Now 2000 posts later, there remains absolutely no even modestly compelling reason not to think Mulch is scum, and a laundry list of reasons to think he is (which will be requested and then when produced will be given the "cases are scummy" treatment much like 1280 was).

iii) Early on Spiffeh made some interesting points against kmd that I quite liked. Seemed pretty unlikely that he would do that with a scumbuddy who was otherwise swimming along fine, which means that leaning more scummily on kmd comes with a more towny lean on spiff.

[Kagami]

I think you're screwed Mulch.

There's no way I'm getting lynched here without securing a promise from everyone that you die tomorrow.

[Kagami]

Firebringer, implosion, and probably Cabd.

Maybe Chara fits in there, but I'm skeptical.

The problem is that you're not town, or if you are, you're so profoundly terrible that you need to die anyway.

[Kagami]

So we're all on the same page, FB is not a gunsmith.

[Kagami]

I would say that statement is nonsense, especially in the context of there being multiple normals here?

[Kagami]

So we're all on the same page, FB is not a gunsmith.

You do realize they claimed gunsmith

Oh you think he's fake claiming. Actually someone did say in a turbo last night they claim roles all the time as both allignments

And you don't claim a powerful role like gunsmith for absolutely no reason.

I'm also told that Elli hates gunsmiths, though I don't know to what extent Ether would honor that.

[Kagami]

O, I think kmd said a couple things worth addressing:

1. As I said before, there's a world of difference between someone claiming FN when run up to L-1, then repeatedly failing to be confirmed, then claiming they only had 3 shots versus Cabd softing unlynchable early on then pretty-much claiming FN. The reason I do have concerns about Cabd is not that I am especially skeptical of FNs, but that he's familiar enough with me that he should have had a townread based on more than just me outing his obvious-ish soft.

2. Remembering you from Inuyasha was relevant, because it's a lot easier to imagine that you are town and came up with an absurdly weak reason to townread Mulch once I remembered how that game ended (and specifically one of your posts just prior to it). Before that, your townread seemed far less plausible to come from a town-aligned player.

[Kagami]

And you don't claim a powerful role like gunsmith for absolutely no reason.

I'm also told that Elli hates gunsmiths, though I don't know to what extent Ether would honor that.

Elli doesn't have anything to do with the balance of games

where did you get this argument

Also it's Fire claiming a PR

You say that's scummy?

For Fire to do so?

Directly from Chesskid, who I imagine has a reason to believe the Elli's opinion is relevant.

I don't think the claim is especially alignment indicative?

[Kagami]

I'll go tell him that he's scum.

[Kagami]

Kmd will understand, I don't really want to go into part of that because I'm trying to say it nicely.

[Kagami]

What are smoking, ginngie?

I don't think the claim means anything at all. I was communicating that to Mulch because I wanted to see what happens with his FB read, which was previously "Town for GS claim."

[Kagami]

Why don't you just quote it so I have some idea what you're trying to ask?

[Kagami]

Not really, given the stories one is the only real non-normal, and I'd be pretty surprised if your preference for a normal would be likely to outweigh a partner's preference for town.

[Kagami]

Hey spiff and/or cabd, are you around?

[Kagami]

Patrick, katsuki says you've clearly senile and should just trust us on mulch-scum.

As a side note, I find it pretty incredible that there are so many goofy townreads on that slot while my entire team (minus smocaine who just hasn't commented on this game) agrees with me on this.

[Kagami]

you've clearly grown senile*

[Kagami]

@patrick: No way in a bajillion years I'd lynch spiffeh. He's my bastion of reason.

I think this game is probably as simple as mulch-slot, unabombah, and I'd guess Firebringer.

I've been bouncing around on implosion, but his earlier votes were actually pretty good when they really didn't need to be.

Ginngie's scumlist of 5 players probably has exactly one scum in it, making it slightly worse than chance. I stand by my team's opinion that Ginngie doesn't take scum unless they got 3+ scum PMs and his pants are simply planted quite firmly upon his head, but that is something not to worry about until later.

I'm somewhat skeptical that the entire scumteam would position for my lynch, though maybe the general town-consensus is simply correct and myself and formerly Eddie are actually the only mislynches on the table until the competent town are dead.

[Kagami]

Reread the game and realized una was scum, then I reread you, FB, implosion, chara, kmd, and ginngie and came to the above conclusions.

Cabd could very easily be scummo #3, but that should sort itself out.

[Kagami]

Meh, I'm not here to win a popularity contest, Ginn. Of your 4 votes, one is on probable scum, and of your 5-person readslist, one is probably scum.

[Kagami]

I can work with you on UnaBombah

[Kagami]

Have you been reading everywhere spiff?

Tora is an interesting slot, and I'd say pretty firmly town.

[Kagami]

I would recommend polling teammates with regard to team Sauciety.

[Kagami]

Play is uninspiring, but I don't know what I should expect.

Tor probably town regardless; my thinking is related to their team's involuntary player-swap.

If I'm wrong, it's on the FireBringer front. It's super weird that assemble would come in with his first read being a townread on FB for GS claim if they're scum together.

On the other hand, FB has played enough games with me that pushing me as scum doesn't make a lot of sense. I lynch scum D1 and get killed N1/2 pretty much every game we've been in together, so why does he push a slot that just sorts itself out? Why the disrespect on my reads beyond that on himself? He shouldn't expect me to give reasons or make cases or whatever else other people seem to imagine will happen, so I don't get it.

[Kagami]

It's not just that chara, there are a laundry list of things I don't like about mulch-slot, it's just an unfortunate nature of the site that expressing a scumread due to an ensemble of signals is counterproductive to lynching someone.

[Kagami]

I admit to being fearful that mulch-slot is town, but I think it's improbable that I'm willing to bet the game on it.

[Kagami]

improbable enough*

[Kagami]

@chara:

The short answer is that when I reread the game in Chara-shoes and imagine early on that I don't see anything towny in Transcend-slot, everything makes a lot of sense. While it seems weird, I also like that mulch goes from townish to being votable over myself in a fairly short space, which has basically no scum-motivation and reflects a legitimately ambivalent perspective that's consistent with your other reads list.

[Kagami]

What was Ginngie's side of the bet?

[Kagami]

Just the lord gaben thing (I don't even know who that is), or does he get a new sig too?

[Kagami]

Hmmm avatar/sig bets based on ongoing games might not be allowed

You should probably confirm with the mod before following through on that

I thought so too, but that clause appears to have disappeared from the rules.

[Kagami]

Can we just actually lynch him? I hope no one is seriously buying JK...

[Kagami]

O, thought he's been at L-1 forever.

Not as happy about this as a few seconds ago o.O

[Kagami]

You have to lock the thread first to make it believable, implosion.

[Kagami]

I feel like we've been in several together, now I have to actually check.

[Kagami]

gumball, kilo, that one I modded. I had thought you were in nightingale, but I misremembered. Shrug.

[Kagami]

Def looks like I have indeed bussed successfully.

[Kagami]

gumball, kilo, that one I modded. I had thought you were in nightingale, but I misremembered. Shrug.

We don’t play many games together, what a shame.
R u avoiding me?

Pretty decent number, I don't play many games, and when I do, they're usually FakeGod games

[Kagami]

Get the rats away from my lunch, plz.

[Kagami]

oooo,

is that fo realz?

[Kagami]

We're waiting for an FN report, folks.

[Kagami]

let's let it remain a mystery while everyone checks in.

[Kagami]

let's let it remain a mystery while everyone checks in.

I mean, the scum team being an amalgamation of Ari Una Fire seems very likely.

yep.

[Kagami]

O, it wasn't obvious to you that Cabd was

really

softing N2 FN all along?

[Kagami]

Pretty sure a lot of effort is wasted there anyway, cheet. It's not like cabd lives if he isn't confirmed.

And una full claims.

[Kagami]

Scum has a non-full roleblocker and only 3 of 15 players, I'm pretty skeptical of a non-VT claim.

[Kagami]

VOTE: cabd

[Kagami]

The town motivation is that we don't want probably-scum Una to have the freedom to make up whatever role you feel like if you're somehow alive after all the sensible players are dead.

The worst case scenario here is that you're town with some role that is powerful enough to be worth killing, but I'm pretty ok with that.

[Kagami]

Hmmm, if we wait for tomorrow, then we don't get to lynch Cabd as a special scumday treat. :<

I'm going to assume mathdino hasn't been following the game terribly closely. Cabd is just hoping to get a Doc claim out of this.

[Kagami]

And he also thinks that scum believes his claim?

To be fair, if Cabd were town, scum probably would believe the claim. They'd just never shoot him, nor would he really be confident he were shot even in the absence of a kill.

[Kagami]

That havingfitz slot is scum doesn't really do that much to change the prior on cabd being scum, if that's what Mathdino is trying to get at.

Spoiler: maths

Let's make a little table. I'm just going to put numbers in the third column that you may or may not disagree with.

[/header]

	Probability of N scum PMs	Probability that Cabd takes one	Product
0	30.0%	0%	0
1	40.8%	25%	.104
2	22.3%	70%	.156
3	6.1%	85%	.052
4	0.83%	99%	.0082
5	0.05%	100%	.0005

Our prior for cabd being scum, then, is just the sum of the final column, which is 32.1%

But now we know that LLD picked a scum PM! How does that change things? We have to make a new table.

[/header]

	Probability of N scum PMs	Probability that Cabd takes one	Product
0	0.0%	0%	0
1	58.2%	0%	0
2	31.8%	50%	.159
3	8.7%	80%	.07
4	0.83%	99%	.012
5	0.05%	100%	.001

For a sum of 24.1%. It's lower, but not radically so.

Now, I can understand disagreement with the "Probability that Cabd takes one" numbers, but I think I'm ballpark right-ish, and that the difference is not so high that it would outweigh the ridiculous nature of this claim.

[Kagami]

If una's not scum, and the manner of this resistance to claiming implies she is, then implosion is definitely on the table.

I'm willing to worry about this tomorrow, though.

If anyone had anything interesting to say, it would have been said by now, and cabd's complete absence is more than enough to be pretty confident in this flip.

[Kagami]

There's reason not to drink koolaid too, but that's again a tomorrow thing.

[Kagami]

hey cheet I'll iso implosion later

but kagami and cheet, wanna iso kmd? curios what you think, slot has a lot of scum equity imo

It does, but I would lynch a lot of other people before him.

There are enough sane members of the town left that I'm not too concerned with the need to force a lynch order or anything like that prior to flipping Cabd.

I continue to think that Una is the most likely to be the final scum, and only an un-CCed doc claim would really make me think otherwise at this point.

If Una were town, there would be a claim, not some "I hope someone in the town says that I don't have to claim so I have an excuse not to! O, no one did. I'm still going to pretend that there's some utility in not claiming, despite my being an extremely suboptimal kill anyway."

[Kagami]

He says wait for other games

Soooo... you don't want associations here to be used in your other games?

Because this game seems like a slam-dunk from here. Shouldn't we be hurrying it if anything?

[Kagami]

Sure, then explain to me why RC wants us to wait for the other games.

[Kagami]

Nothing that happens in any of the other games is going to make Cabd become Town-aligned.