TM2020 - Large Theme - Gay Mafia IV: TOWN WIN

Begins January 2nd, 2020
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Post Post #3499 (isolation #400) » Sat Jan 18, 2020 11:04 pm

Post by Ankamius »

In post 3498, MariaR wrote:Dunn thinks your reasoning for townreading gamma is dumb Ank.
pedit: Me and pant are a hood yes
talk to dann about it
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Post Post #3500 (isolation #401) » Sat Jan 18, 2020 11:04 pm

Post by Ankamius »

unless you're talking about my nom thoughts

in which case shrug
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Post Post #3505 (isolation #402) » Sat Jan 18, 2020 11:11 pm

Post by Ankamius »

In post 3501, MariaR wrote:I don't think Gamma is a lynch option (or prob shouldn't be) today so I don't really care to do that rn but if Dann wants to talk with Dunn I'm willing.
prob not worth

that isn't a read really worth debating atm if it's a difference between null and town
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Post Post #3511 (isolation #403) » Sun Jan 19, 2020 4:02 am

Post by Ankamius »

nom are any of your teammates caught up with the game
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Post Post #3513 (isolation #404) » Sun Jan 19, 2020 4:04 am

Post by Ankamius »

did he say anything about why or was he agreeing with what you told him (assuming you told him your reasons first)
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Post Post #3515 (isolation #405) » Sun Jan 19, 2020 4:05 am

Post by Ankamius »

also can you ask iconeum who in this plist he might have the easiest time reading
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Post Post #3540 (isolation #406) » Sun Jan 19, 2020 6:13 am

Post by Ankamius »

DEB can you go into your team's general thoughts on the game please
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Post Post #3552 (isolation #407) » Sun Jan 19, 2020 7:39 am

Post by Ankamius »

In post 3542, EspressoPatronum wrote:
In post 3428, Ankamius wrote:he thinks both Deas and EP treated volxen like they knew he wasn't town
Here are my two relevant posts on the matter:
In post 3002, EspressoPatronum wrote: [...]
As I noted before, I don't really have a read on volxen so he's more of a null. I'm willing to consolidate on him anyway because I'm not getting a town vibe from him. His 11 posts total doesn't really help the cause either.
[...]
In post 2958, EspressoPatronum wrote:My team and I are fairly aligned on Ank and Gamma scumreads. None of us townread volxen.

For the sake of maintaining town focus, I'll consolidate on volxen. I think Gamma's push on me was disingenuous, but we can save that for tomorrow.
I was fairly open about not scumreading volxen. However, it was more important to me that I didn't townread volxen.
Dann noted this same interaction in his read on you because it gives you ability to push through that lynch without it coming back to you for pushing it through

I agree with him when he says that there's scum in those players that wanted deniability for the town flip on Volxen; he specifically noted DeasVail as the most egregious example, but he founds yours interesting as well because the way you ended up on him can very easily come across as "I'm going to help secure this mislynch but I'm going to try to avoid the backlash that the strong pushers will get from him flipping town"

it was ultimately your reasoning for being there that we have an issue with.

(eddie cane also thinks you need to be lynched today but I don't have specific reasons currently, they're probably buried in the discord somewhere and I'm too lazy to look for them until I have to)
In post 3542, EspressoPatronum wrote:A volxen flip also helped solidify my read on you:
In post 3002, EspressoPatronum wrote:[..]Worth noting that my scumread on Ank lightens significantly if volxen flips scum.[...]
Here's why:

Despite my early scumread on you, I kept town!you open as a possibility, mostly because my team told me how good you were at scumhunting. My willingness to doc you N1 was because you're a great target for kills.

Keeping in mind your reputation for scumhunting, along with your 4* primary scumreads throughout the game (Elements, me, volxen, nom), I know the following:
1. Elements was town
2. I know I am town
3. Volxen flipped not-scum
4. I townread nom

So fmpv, I am certain that you're wrong on 3/4, and you might even be wrong on 4/4. Volxen's flip was a chance at redemption for you in my eyes. His flip didn't give you that redemption.

I would like to reinforce that my scumread on you is not because of you being wrong. Rather, you being wrong is a piece of the scum!Ank picture.

Other pieces include your weird read shifts on me between D1 and D2, your consistent attacks of low-activity posters (ie. Easier targets for someone as active as you), and your friendliness to FL.

*It's technically now 5, as you SR Deas now. That's a new development though, so I'll need time to think that over.
ok, I need to nip this in the bud, because this has been a misconception about how I play for most of the last year now and I think this is a lot of what people are scumreading me for on a fundamental level.

my strength as a town player doesn't come from being able to identify and kill scum, because I actually don't think that style of play gives town the highest odds of winning. my strength as a town player comes from:

1. my ability to recognize town, even town that aren't very popular (read: volpe on day one, and if you are correct on nom being town, nom on day one)
2. my ability to recognize the lynchability of players and to manipulate them to match my reads (townreads = low lynchability mainly, with an emphasis on my townreads)
3. my ability to read into the game to see what scum are likely to do in the future, recognizing lose conditions and addressing them, etc. (gamestate reads)
4. my ability to reshape the game so that town recognizes what I see, and effectively forcing the scum to out to me in the process

if you looked at the three games I consider my strongest performances on the site as a whole (the three I gave are only from this year), you'll see that those games basically never feature a successful scum push from me. My strongest town games come from me shutting down town lynches and reframing the town's mind from an incorrect one to a correct one. doing this correctly basically puts town in a position where it doesn't even matter if I'm there or not, they will be able to close out the game and scum can't do anything without outing themselves.

it doesn't matter that my reads have been generally above average in a lot of my games in 2019, that's not what my playstyle is based around. I'm absolutely capable of getting correct scumreads, which my Blake experiment towards the middle of 2019 proved, and I'm capable enough of pushing scum down, but my experience over the last several years has proven that these things by themselves just aren't enough to consistently win games, not with the threat of being outright removed from the game always looming over your shoulder.

if this reputation of mine came from anywhere, it's probably because I've been studying my games, the game itself, and various other things to try to figure out how to consistently reach the levels I've been able to hit only occasionally in the past. I'm guessing people started picking up on it and it spread without any of the context behind that, so people just........ started believing it meant I was just good at finding scum I guess
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Post Post #3553 (isolation #408) » Sun Jan 19, 2020 7:40 am

Post by Ankamius »

and as an aside

me being functionally wrong is not a scum!ank-exclusive thing

I'm capable of being entirely wrong as town and I have enough self-awareness to check for that before making any major moves
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Post Post #3554 (isolation #409) » Sun Jan 19, 2020 7:42 am

Post by Ankamius »

In post 3543, EspressoPatronum wrote:This is the weird reads thing I mentioned in my previous post:
In post 2700, EspressoPatronum wrote:
In post 2695, Ankamius wrote:
In post 2690, EspressoPatronum wrote:@Ank what happened with your scumread of me from D1 to your read of me today?
my reads changed
Okay, but why and how?

I was your only scumread going into D2. How do you go from that to this:
In post 2430, Ankamius wrote:Remind me again why EP is scum
In post 2435, Ankamius wrote:Shrug

I want volxen tomorrow

Probably gif after that

VOTE: EP
Instead of answering the question, Ank deflected with this:
In post 2757, Ankamius wrote:What did you get from my games EP?
She put the onus back on me to answer to her instead of giving an answer my question.
it's very common for me to completely reshape my reads from day to day as town

when you look at the game as a whole, individual pieces being revealed can change the entire shape of the puzzle
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Post Post #3555 (isolation #410) » Sun Jan 19, 2020 7:44 am

Post by Ankamius »

In post 3544, chennisden wrote:Dude Ank didn't want a volxen lynch and complained about it in PT
half-true

it wasn't me not wanting the lynch, it was me wanting the lynch later

I tried to get skitter off my ass for not hard pushing him mainly because I'd have to burn so much of my credibility for a read I wasn't even entirely sure of and that had less relative value than nomnomnom's
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Post Post #3556 (isolation #411) » Sun Jan 19, 2020 7:45 am

Post by Ankamius »

In post 3546, EspressoPatronum wrote:Gobble wants to know why Ank is voting me today when she wanted nom as the counterwagon.

If Ank is town, doesn't that make nom look worse in Ank's eyes? Where does the vote on me come from?
I've mentioned already that a lot of why I'm on you is because two of my teammates specifically scumread you (dannflor) or want you lynched today (eddie cane)

I'm personally not townreading you and afaik they aren't thinking of nom anywhere near as scummy as you, so I'm ok with being swayed by that
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Post Post #3557 (isolation #412) » Sun Jan 19, 2020 7:46 am

Post by Ankamius »

In post 3548, Dr Easy Bake wrote:
In post 3540, Ankamius wrote:DEB can you go into your team's general thoughts on the game please
Perfect timing, Math just gave me a wall. I swear, sometimes it's hard being a good teammate.
Math thinks that with the Creature town flip a Town leader has yet to emerge, the joking post flip was pro town but we need to get a town leader. If we lynch another town today we're boned.
Titus keeps posting a million bajillion one sentence reads that have me like :dead:
She wants us to lynch Fireboi, and Math disagrees... MY DISCORD IS SO FUN
BB is mia
who does math want to lead exactly

or to restructure that sentence, who does he think CAN lead
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Post Post #3558 (isolation #413) » Sun Jan 19, 2020 7:47 am

Post by Ankamius »

this avi is getting really old, I need to take another one
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Post Post #3562 (isolation #414) » Sun Jan 19, 2020 9:11 am

Post by Ankamius »

In post 3560, Firebringer wrote:
In post 3486, Ankamius wrote:Firebringer mainly because both dann and eddie think that slot's town
I love dannyboi but he clearly doesn't understand my obvious scum game.
is this avi better
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Post Post #3584 (isolation #415) » Mon Jan 20, 2020 5:14 am

Post by Ankamius »

Am I high or weren't you scumreading me at some point
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Post Post #3586 (isolation #416) » Mon Jan 20, 2020 5:16 am

Post by Ankamius »

I can't read your mind kuribo
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Post Post #3596 (isolation #417) » Mon Jan 20, 2020 5:49 am

Post by Ankamius »

Kuribo

Eddie is asking you if you disagree with him when he says that he isn't scumreading you but that scum pushed or voted volxen

The disagreement is everything but your alignment for clarity
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Post Post #3604 (isolation #418) » Mon Jan 20, 2020 10:05 am

Post by Ankamius »

ok

I'm going to bring the claws out because this game is getting absolutely ridiculous by this point. I'm going to state this bluntly because everybody still alive who is town needs to have this sink in, because fixing this gamestate is always going to be an uphill battle and the issue is with everybody, not just one or a few people. So.

This town has no cohesion. This town has no real threats to scum. This town has the single most amount of town players that can possible come together to solve this game. Yet, despite that, we've not only squandered this advantage up until now, but we've effectively given up before we've even truly begun to get anywhere in this game.

It's fucking day three, it's time to get your shit together and start putting effort into this game. There's no excuse with the amount of information available that there's
NOTHING
everybody can use to propel the game forward. There's plenty of 1v1s to analyze, a good chunk with known alignments on one side. There's four flips, all four of which either being contentious slots in of themselves or creating so much of the potential solving space we have available to us that it's absolutely ridiculous that the game is so absolutely dead in the water as it is.

If the game continues along its current course, town is going to lose.


If you doubt me on this, take count of the following:

1. The only successful lynch we've had was on a non-scum.
2. That non-scum was the only wagon that got shoved through very easily, while literally every other wagon got so much resistance that it was nearly impossible to get anywhere on any slot.
3. The amount of people only interacting with only 1-2 people or spending the majority of their time focusing on only their scumreads, or really anything like that is staggering.
4. Because of 3, there's literally no particularly strong townblock despite how many raw townreads I've had for just about the entire game, or really any strong universal townreads that the game can rally around.
5. The amount of people that are mixed reads-wise among the playerbase is way too high, and there's way too little relative sorting among them in order to properly reach a sort of consensus on them.

This game is absolutely fucked because I'm seeing a town that doesn't even care about this game. I get there was a modkill day one that cut an otherwise productive day short, but it's time to get over it and get shit done because it's been
WEEKS
since then. Get your team involved if they aren't already. If you can't bring yourself to give a shit about the game, be a voicebox for your team. It doesn't matter, just do something so that we can fix the game so that we don't have an embarrassing scum stomp on what should be the most intensive game of the entire event. We need everybody to contribute to this, because otherwise it won't happen.

If you need evidence that the scumteam is taking full advantage of this,
JUST LOOK AT THE NIGHTKILLS
.

- Farkran was THE SINGLE BIGGEST proponent of pushing the game forward on day one, with endless engagements and being so blatantly trying to sort everybody that it was nearly impossible to scumread him. Biggest of all is that
he was the obvtown with enough conviction to rally the game around him
, no shit he was killed. Any half decent scum player putting any more than the lowest amount of effort possible would kill him.
- Volpe14 was THE SECOND SINGLE BIGGESt proponent of pushing the game forward on day one, with the same amount of engagements and conviction albeit with being significantly less universally obvtown than Farkran was. I don't find it shocking at all that he was killed, despite not being a universal townread like Farkran was, because he displayed something nobody else had on day two:
the conviction to put his money where his mouth was and look to find the best way to push the game forward.
You might not agree with him throwing his weight behind me like he did on day two, but the important bit was the raw conviction and emphasis he put on that action,
WITH A DIRECT THREAT THAT HE WOULD MAKE ME UNKILLABLE UNTIL HE WAS KILLED FIRST
. Nobody alive in this game has gone anywhere near this level of conviction on anything, and that makes me really suspicious that what the scumteam are afraid of is town that can make the plays necessary to save the game.

If you all are just resigned to stop caring and let the game slip, then fine, I'll just take whatever nightkill I get (or whatever lynch if this town is truly so far gone that I can't even save them anymore anyways) and be happy to be out of this game. I'm not going to work to save a game for a town that won't work to help save it for themselves, but I'm not willing to just let this game die without making this effort, especially after a flipped town specifically trusted me to do so.

So. As for what I believe are the most pressing talking points that should be among those thought of as important to the game, I propose the following.

1. Of Farkran's and Volpe's scumreads on day one, who is more likely to be scum and who is more likely to be town, and why?
2. How likely is scum to be on Volxen's lynch wagon? Who is the most likely culprit? Why?
3. How likely is scum to be off Volxen's lynch wagon? Who is the most likely culprit? Why?
4. Who do you have townreads on, and do they townread each other? If not, why not?
5. Why are you struggling to get into the game, and what would it take to solve that?
6. What are your unpopular reads and why?
7. How caught up is your team and who do they think are town and scum?

There's plenty more, but that's just what I could come up with in about 20 seconds of thought.

For those that haven't been keeping up with the game, I'd start with reading through day two, and go back to parts of day one that interest you.
If you have teammates that haven't been keeping up but you have,
help them get caught up in the game
. Our single biggest advantage is that we have four times as many players that can potentially find every clue the scumteam leaves behind, and this is
THE
most important game for us to win.

Subject: Team Mafia 2020 Announcement
Untrod Tripod wrote:
Scoring


In the event of a tie, there is a tiebreaker. In order of importance:

1. Being on the winning side of the Large Theme.
So if you care about winning, put the effort in and start putting this game on the right track. It's time to start working on building a solid townblock to be able to communicate better, instead of just idly creating weak pushes on random slots all the time and achieving nothing.
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Post Post #3606 (isolation #419) » Mon Jan 20, 2020 10:07 am

Post by Ankamius »

In post 3467, Ankamius wrote:Ankamius
chennisden/Gammagooey
MariaR/Almost50/Flavor Leaf/Firebringer
panthaleon/davesaz/Dr Easy Bake
kuribo/nomnomnom/DeasVail
EspressoPatronum

this is where I'm at roughly atm
for reference

I'm still roughly here although I'd like to start trying to polarize some of these reads so I can figure out how best to approach the rest of the game.
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Post Post #3612 (isolation #420) » Mon Jan 20, 2020 10:13 am

Post by Ankamius »

idk about you fire

but I don't find watching town slowly kill itself to be fun
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Post Post #3614 (isolation #421) » Mon Jan 20, 2020 10:16 am

Post by Ankamius »

In post 3612, Ankamius wrote:idk about you fire

but I don't find watching town slowly kill itself to be fun
plus it's wonderful to just have fun in a game and get scumread for not having enough of a presence

so
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Post Post #3617 (isolation #422) » Mon Jan 20, 2020 10:17 am

Post by Ankamius »

In post 3615, Firebringer wrote:
In post 3612, Ankamius wrote:idk about you fire

but I don't find watching town slowly kill itself to be fun
It’s a game and the more u care the more u will be disappointed lossen up do ur best to play it without it letting it affect u and throw in a few shit posts between
did you read the same game as me?
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Post Post #3619 (isolation #423) » Mon Jan 20, 2020 10:19 am

Post by Ankamius »

then you have no idea where this is coming from fire
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Post Post #3631 (isolation #424) » Mon Jan 20, 2020 10:53 am

Post by Ankamius »

Dann is starting to get into the game a bit, he has a reads list:

TOWN

ankamius(/volpe/farkran/elements)
chennisden/firebringer/almost50/gammagooey
mariar/panthaleon/davesaz
kuribo/flavor leaf(/volxen) [---NULL LINE---]
dreasybake\deasvail
nomnomnom/espressopatronum

SCUM
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Post Post #3633 (isolation #425) » Mon Jan 20, 2020 10:56 am

Post by Ankamius »

unless his scumgame got way better or all his posts are heavily coached, I don't think it's within his scumrange to act that emphatically, keep his thought processes consistent, and keep his thought processes mostly relevant to the game

that's basically how I've ever been able to read him in the past and I don't think it's realistic for him to get that much better at it like he has while maintaining the read strength he's been showing without having cracks slip in enough for me to be able to notice it
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Post Post #3634 (isolation #426) » Mon Jan 20, 2020 10:59 am

Post by Ankamius »

In post 3633, Ankamius wrote:or all his posts are heavily coached
I feel like this is kinda possible considering who his teammates are

but even in that instance, I really don't think it's at all necessary to throw any sort of fit like he had in the PT and into the thread, it's so unnecessary and risky
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Post Post #3636 (isolation #427) » Mon Jan 20, 2020 11:01 am

Post by Ankamius »

In post 3606, Ankamius wrote:chennisden/Gammagooey
MariaR/Almost50/Flavor Leaf/Firebringer
these are your options FL
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Post Post #3638 (isolation #428) » Mon Jan 20, 2020 11:02 am

Post by Ankamius »

Dann wants to know why you don't have a confident DEB read FL
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Post Post #3641 (isolation #429) » Mon Jan 20, 2020 11:05 am

Post by Ankamius »

if you had control over the next 3-4 lynches

who would you lynch in what order
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Post Post #3648 (isolation #430) » Mon Jan 20, 2020 11:22 am

Post by Ankamius »

we have to get to a somewhat consensus first

or at least to a stage where we can make those kinds of decisions without having to risk a snipe putting us back at square one again
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Post Post #3650 (isolation #431) » Mon Jan 20, 2020 11:22 am

Post by Ankamius »

In post 3649, Flavor Leaf wrote:Like I wish I was scum because you lot seem very easily manipulated with basic black and white mentalities.

Solid, but I really wish I didn’t have such an unorthodox view of mafia.
dude this game would be easy as shit to be scum in
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Post Post #3654 (isolation #432) » Mon Jan 20, 2020 11:25 am

Post by Ankamius »

In post 3651, Flavor Leaf wrote:
In post 3650, Ankamius wrote:
In post 3649, Flavor Leaf wrote:Like I wish I was scum because you lot seem very easily manipulated with basic black and white mentalities.

Solid, but I really wish I didn’t have such an unorthodox view of mafia.
dude this game would be easy as shit to be scum in
That’s what I’m saying.

I don’t even feel like the scum team is actively playing well based on gamestate.
well yeah, this is why we need to get our shit together before it's too late

the scumteam don't need to play all that well atm and playing better forces them to play catchup
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Post Post #3668 (isolation #433) » Mon Jan 20, 2020 11:43 am

Post by Ankamius »

I'd be shocked if the scumteam were planning around deepwolfing the firebringer slot if he's scum
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Post Post #3699 (isolation #434) » Mon Jan 20, 2020 12:07 pm

Post by Ankamius »

FL who should be added to the townblock
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Post Post #3703 (isolation #435) » Mon Jan 20, 2020 12:08 pm

Post by Ankamius »

I'm at a50/chenn as consensus cancel food reads, with gamma and fb being secondary non-consensus cancel food reads
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Post Post #3712 (isolation #436) » Mon Jan 20, 2020 12:14 pm

Post by Ankamius »

oh chenn, somehow I missed that dann specifically directed this towards you:

the tl;dr is that his thought processes aren't particularly great but the way they're progressing is consistent with his tone

he doesn't think that a scum a50 would feel any real threat from you for your townread of this slot to the extent that he'd feel the need to paraphrase literally everything that we'd posted in the neighborhood since the start of the game; he also mentioned that the posts I indicated before that were misreps or misinterpreted were consistent with how a50 was looking at the game and not likely to be deliberately placed. this overall paints a picture that the scumread was genuine, which inherently is an explanation for why he would feel the need to go out of his way to paraphrase the entire hood to combat your townread on me

noting for the record that I paraphrased a lot of the neighborhood sometime before that, so there's some context there already that he's working with
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Post Post #3714 (isolation #437) » Mon Jan 20, 2020 12:14 pm

Post by Ankamius »

In post 3708, Firebringer wrote:
In post 3699, Ankamius wrote:FL who should be added to the townblock
Ohh noes ank has bad takes
that is not a take.
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Post Post #3715 (isolation #438) » Mon Jan 20, 2020 12:15 pm

Post by Ankamius »

good fucking god

do I have to stay up to stop this 1v1 or can the thread not implode while I'm not here?
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Post Post #3718 (isolation #439) » Mon Jan 20, 2020 12:16 pm

Post by Ankamius »

In post 3699, Ankamius wrote:FL who should be added to the townblock
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Post Post #3724 (isolation #440) » Mon Jan 20, 2020 12:22 pm

Post by Ankamius »

fire can you read my posts before you try to rebut them?
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Post Post #3728 (isolation #441) » Mon Jan 20, 2020 12:24 pm

Post by Ankamius »

it's way too late, I'm going to bed

I hope the thread is at least halfway sane when I return
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Post Post #3813 (isolation #442) » Mon Jan 20, 2020 10:55 pm

Post by Ankamius »

In post 3812, nomnomnom wrote:@Ank Ico told me that you're crazy for expecting him to read this game but that he has the most experience reading A50 here
this means nothing to me by itself

I know there's more here but I slept like shit so I'm going to take it easy for a bit until I'm more awake
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Post Post #3816 (isolation #443) » Mon Jan 20, 2020 11:51 pm

Post by Ankamius »

then their experience reading specific players is not really that relevant
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Post Post #3825 (isolation #444) » Tue Jan 21, 2020 3:38 am

Post by Ankamius »

Gamma did you say your townreads? I don't remember seeing them recently
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Post Post #3870 (isolation #445) » Tue Jan 21, 2020 10:09 am

Post by Ankamius »

hi guys

eddie cane is proposing a massclaim
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Post Post #3873 (isolation #446) » Tue Jan 21, 2020 10:16 am

Post by Ankamius »

EC has some speculation but needs more to be able to guess

He thinks it's a reasonable idea that there's only 3 scum in this game (this is my own speculation, but >3 probably mean repeats rather than different hoods for each member)
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Post Post #3885 (isolation #447) » Tue Jan 21, 2020 11:04 am

Post by Ankamius »

yes please roleblock this hood

the vote remove thing is legitimately stupid
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Post Post #3887 (isolation #448) » Tue Jan 21, 2020 11:06 am

Post by Ankamius »

yeah and if there's scum in this hood, they get to strategically remove votes

thanks kuribo
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Post Post #3889 (isolation #449) » Tue Jan 21, 2020 11:09 am

Post by Ankamius »

do you trust our hood to be all town kuribo
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Post Post #3892 (isolation #450) » Tue Jan 21, 2020 11:11 am

Post by Ankamius »

In post 3890, MariaR wrote:
In post 3889, Ankamius wrote:do you trust our hood to be all town kuribo
2/3
do you think optimal use of our neighborhood is to abstain from voting at all
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Post Post #3894 (isolation #451) » Tue Jan 21, 2020 11:13 am

Post by Ankamius »

do you agree that if there's scum in this hood, all the town abstaining does nothing but give the scum in the hood free rein to vote remove whoever they want?
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Post Post #3899 (isolation #452) » Tue Jan 21, 2020 11:17 am

Post by Ankamius »

In post 3896, MariaR wrote:You're legit told if you get turned voteless right? If people use your power then they get outted.
true

although this is also partially dependent on the situation

either way, I don't see what hood is better to roleblock than ours considering there's TWO protective hoods and ONE investigative hood
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Post Post #3906 (isolation #453) » Tue Jan 21, 2020 11:29 am

Post by Ankamius »

VOTE: Dr Easy Bake
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Post Post #3907 (isolation #454) » Tue Jan 21, 2020 11:30 am

Post by Ankamius »

still interested in massclaiming
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Post Post #3913 (isolation #455) » Tue Jan 21, 2020 11:34 am

Post by Ankamius »

Eddie Cane has an announcement about the last man standing powers:

If you think that a hood is TvS (+1 dead slot obv), then it's still worth lynching the scum in that hood. Worst case, you leave one scum alive and they can't use their LMS power in a way that's blatantly obvious, because then they just out themselves as scum. It's not smart to ignore scumreads just because you don't want scum to potentially have LMS, because there's enough info out there about the neighborhoods that it will be laughably easy to catch them. This setup is really simple at its core.
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Post Post #3915 (isolation #456) » Tue Jan 21, 2020 11:36 am

Post by Ankamius »

ok firebringer
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Post Post #3921 (isolation #457) » Tue Jan 21, 2020 11:44 am

Post by Ankamius »

In post 3918, kuribo wrote:
In post 3915, Ankamius wrote:ok firebringer


Okay realtalk, what were you hoping to accomplish making me voteless because it was "funny?"


Were you hoping I'd get pissed off and scream nonstop? Fill the thread with forty pages of nonsense? Maybe even get banned? How is any of that a town mindset? Is that funny to you?


How can you sit there and talk about your ability should be roleblocked when you're choosing to use it "to be funny" in the first place?
I think you're overestimating how much of a shit I gave on n2
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Post Post #3923 (isolation #458) » Tue Jan 21, 2020 11:47 am

Post by Ankamius »

like I expected it to be a thing for like 2 days and then it would be over and we'd move on

I didn't think it would be that big an issue that it would be cascading this far and outright threatening to derail the game because it basically fizzled out the first time and ended up having no impact on anything
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Post Post #3924 (isolation #459) » Tue Jan 21, 2020 11:49 am

Post by Ankamius »

if it helps

I thought that how you'd react and segue into the game would be very indicative for your alignment
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Post Post #3926 (isolation #460) » Tue Jan 21, 2020 11:51 am

Post by Ankamius »

btw anyone know offhand who was scumreading volpe throughout d1-d2?

that's something I want to investigate into
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Post Post #3928 (isolation #461) » Tue Jan 21, 2020 11:51 am

Post by Ankamius »

In post 3925, davesaz wrote:Did you get anything out of DEB being devoted?
Wait, that reads wrong.
De-voted?
Hopefully I'm remembering right who it was.
idfk DEB wasn't my idea

I didn't even vote for him, I voted for farkran
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Post Post #3931 (isolation #462) » Tue Jan 21, 2020 11:52 am

Post by Ankamius »

do you know who else was FL
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Post Post #3934 (isolation #463) » Tue Jan 21, 2020 11:53 am

Post by Ankamius »

In post 3932, davesaz wrote:Did you think Farkran was scum?
no

I wanted to leave a paper trail to confirm myself later in the game, I was originally looking to keep our neighborhood and the powers hidden for as long as possible
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Post Post #3936 (isolation #464) » Tue Jan 21, 2020 11:54 am

Post by Ankamius »

fucking hell do I have to trudge through d1 again
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Post Post #3940 (isolation #465) » Tue Jan 21, 2020 11:56 am

Post by Ankamius »

I want to know the list of people who were scumreading volpe because I'd be very surprised if scum isn't on that list

EC agrees with me that farkran and volpe were good kills, but there's still weirdness around the volpe slot that makes it bizarre that he'd be the NK target unless the slots scumreading him is significantly scum
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Post Post #3941 (isolation #466) » Tue Jan 21, 2020 11:56 am

Post by Ankamius »

In post 3938, kuribo wrote:
In post 3923, Ankamius wrote:like I expected it to be a thing for like 2 days and then it would be over and we'd move on

I didn't think it would be that big an issue that it would be cascading this far and outright threatening to derail the game because it basically fizzled out the first time and ended up having no impact on anything


You are aware that DEB and I are completely different people who would respond differently to being made voteless

In a twelve year body of work on this site, what in my history, knowing all you've ever known about my personality would ever cause you to think I'd "just drop it."

I don't think I've ever just dropped anything.

I spent six years waiting to be town against GreyICE-scum so that I could repay him for mislynching me

I still owe CKD a lynch from 2008.
ok, lesson learned

I'm sorry
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Post Post #3944 (isolation #467) » Tue Jan 21, 2020 11:58 am

Post by Ankamius »

In post 3940, Ankamius wrote:I want to know the list of people who were scumreading volpe because I'd be very surprised if scum isn't on that list

EC agrees with me that farkran and volpe were good kills, but there's still weirdness around the volpe slot that makes it bizarre that he'd be the NK target unless the slots scumreading him is significantly scum
yikes

GIF slot was on it
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Post Post #3945 (isolation #468) » Tue Jan 21, 2020 11:58 am

Post by Ankamius »

both people in the commuter hood fit that bill

that hood just keeps looking more and more sketchy no matter what angle I view it from
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Post Post #3947 (isolation #469) » Tue Jan 21, 2020 11:59 am

Post by Ankamius »

I think VCs are informative enough to get something out of

I'll try to do that tomorrow if I remember
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Post Post #3953 (isolation #470) » Tue Jan 21, 2020 12:02 pm

Post by Ankamius »

In post 3950, davesaz wrote:That mentality of being able to prove yourself later seems odd to me.
I don't know how to extract an alignment out of it. It's just the type of weirdness that catches my eye.
when I have a PR that I can't see a direct way to get utility with, I look to get indirect utility with it
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Post Post #3954 (isolation #471) » Tue Jan 21, 2020 12:05 pm

Post by Ankamius »

anyone ready for the spice take
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Post Post #3958 (isolation #472) » Tue Jan 21, 2020 12:06 pm

Post by Ankamius »

Dr Easy Bake (6): Gammagooey, Almost50, chennisden, Flavor Leaf, Ankamius, MariaR

I think this wagon has very good odds of being all town
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Post Post #3961 (isolation #473) » Tue Jan 21, 2020 12:08 pm

Post by Ankamius »

Firebringer/DeasVail/DEB/panthaleon/nomnomnom/davesaz/kuribo

that looks like a good PoE for me to work with
In post 3959, davesaz wrote:
In post 3958, Ankamius wrote:Dr Easy Bake (6): Gammagooey, Almost50, chennisden, Flavor Leaf, Ankamius, MariaR

I think this wagon has very good odds of being all town
Including the target?
I think DEB is more likely than not town, although my reasons for it aren't very strong
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Post Post #3964 (isolation #474) » Tue Jan 21, 2020 12:10 pm

Post by Ankamius »

panthaleon + deasvail + nom/fb looks like a promising solve

I'll go over it with my team and get back to it later, I need to sleep soon
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Post Post #3967 (isolation #475) » Tue Jan 21, 2020 12:12 pm

Post by Ankamius »

did they?
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Post Post #3991 (isolation #476) » Tue Jan 21, 2020 12:47 pm

Post by Ankamius »

ec says that's a point in favor
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Post Post #4034 (isolation #477) » Tue Jan 21, 2020 8:48 pm

Post by Ankamius »

In post 4033, nomnomnom wrote:In any case I REALLY do not recommend lynching me since the chances I get nightkilled are ridiculously high
X
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Post Post #4037 (isolation #478) » Tue Jan 21, 2020 8:57 pm

Post by Ankamius »

EC is working on a big post and should have it out sometime during D3, but there's some stuff he wants to get out there now first:

1. Just massclaim, scum probably know most of the setup already and the fact that town has grouped PRs and not individual PRs makes the increased amount of information we get worth the risk. If we had massclaimed before now, our investigative hood would probably have results right now instead of having gotten blocked twice in a row.
2. He'd like to emphasize that this is
team
mafia, and we are not ranked as individuals but
teams
. More than half the games have scumflips now, and the gamestate in general is not optimistic for getting things done. He wants town players to get their team's help and to make this game a priority, but he will also be requesting the help of specific people as well.

@Flavor Leaf
: He wants Jingle and SS' thoughts, but he cares about all three of your teammates' opinions on the game.
@Davesaz
: He wants to ask if Reundo has been keeping caught up since he's dead in his own game, as well as FF's.
@Panthaleon
: He wants to know what Oka is writing in your PT/Discord, he's pretty certain Oka is staying caught up.
@Gammagooey
: Give Hito a hug for him please
@Kuribo
: He wants to ask for Pine's opinions on the game since he's dead in his own. He's interested in Mastina's too.
@Firebringer
: He would like NSG to have more of an impact in the game, even if only to make your slot easy to read

He didn't directly ask me to say this, but the overwhelming stance of my team is that this game is really boring and there's very little to work with, so he understands why there's been less effort put into trying to solve this game. However, this game is
NOT
going to get better if we don't try to brute force it into becoming better. I'm sorry, but we need people to suck it up enough to help push this game forward so that it becomes more easy to work with in later days.
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Post Post #4044 (isolation #479) » Tue Jan 21, 2020 9:12 pm

Post by Ankamius »

I'm personally interested in mastina's since she generally has a good idea of what kind of info I need to solve with
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Post Post #4069 (isolation #480) » Tue Jan 21, 2020 9:33 pm

Post by Ankamius »

In post 4066, Flavor Leaf wrote:Jingle wants to know what EC wants to know. He’s been following it on more of a mechanical feel, which I believe makes sense. We’ve really been hampering down on mechanics in general this game. I think that’s why it’s boring to be in the outside of it.
EC: reads list with explanations for his more confident reads mainly, the mechanics feel straightforward enough to not dwell on too much
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Post Post #4092 (isolation #481) » Wed Jan 22, 2020 3:22 am

Post by Ankamius »

This game would be a lot easier if more slots were unambiguously town
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Post Post #4106 (isolation #482) » Wed Jan 22, 2020 6:41 am

Post by Ankamius »

EC: yes to Jingle, please
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Post Post #4108 (isolation #483) » Wed Jan 22, 2020 10:26 am

Post by Ankamius »

VOTE: nomnomnom
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Post Post #4109 (isolation #484) » Wed Jan 22, 2020 10:34 am

Post by Ankamius »

I think nom is the only possibly correct lynch today

I don't want day to end yet since my reads are less confident than I'd like them to be, but I don't think I can support any other wagon at this point soz
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Post Post #4115 (isolation #485) » Wed Jan 22, 2020 11:09 am

Post by Ankamius »

if you want a case, here you go
In post 4111, nomnomnom wrote:Ank you're working with a "POE" but you apparently can't discuss other wagons in favor of a hood which has a vengeful LMS and you're voting someone town. Should I really vote you today? Because honestly you sound anything but genuine right now.
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Post Post #4117 (isolation #486) » Wed Jan 22, 2020 11:10 am

Post by Ankamius »

I can tell that's not how town!you reacts to pressure

sorry nom
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Post Post #4118 (isolation #487) » Wed Jan 22, 2020 11:14 am

Post by Ankamius »

is that it?
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Post Post #4120 (isolation #488) » Wed Jan 22, 2020 11:21 am

Post by Ankamius »

In post 4119, nomnomnom wrote:But it's the truth. Last time you posted you posted a PoE you wanted to work with but skipped the part where you're supposed to sort people and see the cases on multiple people to vote me because apparently you couldn't vote anywhere else. It's not like you're not even bothering with what you're saying. You know I remember you working with PoEs. It was mostly discussing with others about the pros and cons of each lynches and reassuring others about your own PoE because people were still scumreading people outside of your PoE. I got none of that. You ever watched Dragon Ball Super? What you're doing right now feels like people who think they understand Dragon Ball but clearly skipped what make Dragon Ball Dragon Ball. Here I have the impression that maybe you're replicating what you'd do as town but missing out the little steps that make it a town reasoning.
I'd hope that a town!nom would pressure me on that point and try to force my reasoning out of me, not this deflecting bullshit that you're pulling
In post 4110, nomnomnom wrote:I can guarantee you that if you lynch me today, town loses. Like, for real this time.
In post 4111, nomnomnom wrote:Ank you're working with a "POE" but you apparently can't discuss other wagons in favor of a hood which has a vengeful LMS and you're voting someone town. Should I really vote you today? Because honestly you sound anything but genuine right now.
In post 4112, nomnomnom wrote:What even is the scum case on me? It's been 3 days I've seen people say I'm scum but there's literally no case on me. You know from someone like you working with a "PoE" I would have already expected to roast my ass with a million things but all you were able to come up with is a ridiculous "I CaNt VoTe SoMeWhErE eLsE sOrRy?" Are you joking?

Either you towngame has deflated big time or you really need to work on your scumgame because holy hell.
like

LOOK at this

you're approaching this entire engagement as if I'm town, yet you're trying to push me as a scumread all of a sudden, then adding a discredit as a cherry on top, and now you're suddenly trying to reason with me???
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Post Post #4121 (isolation #489) » Wed Jan 22, 2020 11:21 am

Post by Ankamius »

like you flail a lot when you're under pressure as town, but not like this

it's a night and day difference
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Post Post #4122 (isolation #490) » Wed Jan 22, 2020 11:22 am

Post by Ankamius »

I'm curious nom

why do YOU think I believe your lynch is the only correct one today?
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Post Post #4124 (isolation #491) » Wed Jan 22, 2020 11:27 am

Post by Ankamius »

In post 2911, nomnomnom wrote:Also again I think Ank's more town for that vote on me so I think that's sorted from me.
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Post Post #4125 (isolation #492) » Wed Jan 22, 2020 11:29 am

Post by Ankamius »

btw

scum getting a vengekill is, at worst, harmless

there are instances where it helps town
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Post Post #4126 (isolation #493) » Wed Jan 22, 2020 11:30 am

Post by Ankamius »

the vengekill is only inherently anti-town when we're unaware it's a thing
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Post Post #4128 (isolation #494) » Wed Jan 22, 2020 11:32 am

Post by Ankamius »

you know that if we decide to lynch the vengeful, we can just leash another scummy slot to hammer, right
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Post Post #4131 (isolation #495) » Wed Jan 22, 2020 11:40 am

Post by Ankamius »

oh right I'm thinking of super saint

then just autolynch them in 3p
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Post Post #4132 (isolation #496) » Wed Jan 22, 2020 11:43 am

Post by Ankamius »

RED ALERT


Please finish the massclaim:

Almost50 - Ankamius - Chennisden
- Vote Remove / Vigilante
Elements - EspressoPatronum - Flavor Leaf
- Doctor / 1shot Lightning Rod
Firebringer - nomnomnom - Volpe14
- Commuter / Vengeful
Kuribo - MariaR - Panthaleon
- Roleblocker / ???
Dr Easy Bake - Gammagooey - Volxen
- ??? / ???
Davesaz - Deasvail - Farkran
- Inventor / ???

Basically everything is out already so there's no reason to just leave the rest unclaimed

(this message from EC)
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Post Post #4133 (isolation #497) » Wed Jan 22, 2020 11:44 am

Post by Ankamius »

btw we're in evens, so vengeful doesn't remove any days to solve the game
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Post Post #4136 (isolation #498) » Wed Jan 22, 2020 11:57 am

Post by Ankamius »

In post 4135, panthaleon wrote:Yeah the assumption was a scum doublevoter is ridiculously powerful, so odds were dece we were all town
why

scum doublevoter isn't that strong unless town is like... already going to lose without it
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Post Post #4137 (isolation #499) » Wed Jan 22, 2020 12:07 pm

Post by Ankamius »

In post 4130, nomnomnom wrote:I'm too tired for this convo, I'm about to collapse

Just bring up a scumcase about me that isn't a one liner about me changing up a read over the course of a few gamedays that'd be great
why do I need a scumcase when I'm not looking to push you down yet?
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Post Post #4139 (isolation #500) » Wed Jan 22, 2020 12:31 pm

Post by Ankamius »

In post 4138, davesaz wrote:JOAT.
what powers?
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Post Post #4188 (isolation #501) » Wed Jan 22, 2020 8:14 pm

Post by Ankamius »

I went to bed and I came back to utter chaos

wonderful
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Post Post #4194 (isolation #502) » Wed Jan 22, 2020 8:22 pm

Post by Ankamius »

I have a sinking feeling that people are aware enough that nom is a good kill

but that they don't want to specifically because it's firebringer in the hood

and that's the single most dismaying thing I've read all game
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Post Post #4196 (isolation #503) » Wed Jan 22, 2020 8:24 pm

Post by Ankamius »

anyways

I'm not supporting a DEB lynch at this point
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Post Post #4202 (isolation #504) » Wed Jan 22, 2020 8:51 pm

Post by Ankamius »

that they don't want you to have a kill and/or to have to leave you alive until like... lylo
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Post Post #4220 (isolation #505) » Wed Jan 22, 2020 10:00 pm

Post by Ankamius »

so your scumteam is kuribo + espressopatronum + {DEB/davesaz}

aka four people that I had just said were in my PoE

and my opinions are bad

ok
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Post Post #4223 (isolation #506) » Wed Jan 22, 2020 10:04 pm

Post by Ankamius »

VOTE: Firebringer

fuck it we're killing this
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Post Post #4226 (isolation #507) » Wed Jan 22, 2020 10:06 pm

Post by Ankamius »

are you interested in taking the game remotely seriously or are you just going to shit all over the game until you're dead?
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Post Post #4228 (isolation #508) » Wed Jan 22, 2020 10:10 pm

Post by Ankamius »

if you have to die for the game to start being solvable, then I will votepark you until you're dead
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Post Post #4230 (isolation #509) » Wed Jan 22, 2020 10:13 pm

Post by Ankamius »

In post 4226, Ankamius wrote:are you interested in taking the game remotely seriously or are you just going to shit all over the game until you're dead?
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Post Post #4231 (isolation #510) » Wed Jan 22, 2020 10:14 pm

Post by Ankamius »

that's literally all you've done since you replaced in
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Post Post #4240 (isolation #511) » Wed Jan 22, 2020 10:31 pm

Post by Ankamius »

In post 4235, Firebringer wrote:
In post 4230, Ankamius wrote:
In post 4226, Ankamius wrote:are you interested in taking the game remotely seriously or are you just going to shit all over the game until you're dead?
like constantly throwing questions like this, i can't take in good faith.

I see people who do this at times and its always because they are mad i am not playing on the level they want me to. They are frustrated at me and taking it out on me in some way. So they post stuff like this.

Its not like remotely a good faith discussion. Its to vent.
you've literally been doing basically nothing since you came in except troll and occasionally shit on people

and then you come in shading multiple people in your reads list while 2/3 of the rest are essentially non-reads?

and then you're mad at ME for being pissed off about that when I've spent the last several days trying to get this game to a point where it's actually possible to solve the game?

you need to get either a reality check or some awareness because what the actual fuck is this?
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Post Post #4243 (isolation #512) » Wed Jan 22, 2020 10:41 pm

Post by Ankamius »

yeah you keep doing that
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Post Post #4244 (isolation #513) » Wed Jan 22, 2020 10:41 pm

Post by Ankamius »

VOTE: nomnomnom
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Post Post #4249 (isolation #514) » Wed Jan 22, 2020 11:16 pm

Post by Ankamius »

In post 4248, Firebringer wrote:though it makes sense anks frustration if she is town with how big her poe is. Part of this just feels a bit off. Like her reads just don't mesh well.

i just asked rc about it earlier and he just said basically anks read list was weird.
go into it
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Post Post #4250 (isolation #515) » Wed Jan 22, 2020 11:28 pm

Post by Ankamius »

it would be nice to get actual details for once since it keeps coming up over and over and over again that apparently something's weird with me, but nobody has been able to explain what exactly the issue is

it's just "you're not usual town!ank!!!" which is a weird statement since I'm pretty certain I know my own playstyle better than anybody else does and I don't even know what that means
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Post Post #4277 (isolation #516) » Thu Jan 23, 2020 2:04 pm

Post by Ankamius »

Join the light, gamma
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Post Post #4283 (isolation #517) » Thu Jan 23, 2020 10:02 pm

Post by Ankamius »

this game suddenly got a lot less interesting over the last day

fancy that
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Post Post #4284 (isolation #518) » Thu Jan 23, 2020 10:02 pm

Post by Ankamius »

I don't have enough obvtowns

why aren't people obvtowning
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Post Post #4285 (isolation #519) » Thu Jan 23, 2020 10:03 pm

Post by Ankamius »

one of these days I'll settle on just one avi

but that's not today clearly
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Post Post #4292 (isolation #520) » Fri Jan 24, 2020 2:33 am

Post by Ankamius »

this is a wonderful game we're playing right now
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Post Post #4332 (isolation #521) » Fri Jan 24, 2020 9:19 pm

Post by Ankamius »

In post 4320, Flavor Leaf wrote:The thing with DEB, kind of the same way to read flippyNips, late game when there’s less activity and posts, and they make a post, they can come off as incredibly obv town, and that’s something I don’t think happens when they’re scum ever.

Ank, why did you think the DEB wagon was all town?
it was an assumption
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Post Post #4333 (isolation #522) » Fri Jan 24, 2020 9:20 pm

Post by Ankamius »

yes complete the massclaim before ending
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Post Post #4364 (isolation #523) » Sat Jan 25, 2020 10:43 am

Post by Ankamius »

maria has the past however many pages changed any of your thoughts on the game
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Post Post #4382 (isolation #524) » Sat Jan 25, 2020 9:46 pm

Post by Ankamius »

hi I put like 10 seconds of effort into trying to solve the game finally

and I have no interest in a DV lynch today ty
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Post Post #4383 (isolation #525) » Sat Jan 25, 2020 9:46 pm

Post by Ankamius »

effort is ongoing
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Post Post #4384 (isolation #526) » Sat Jan 25, 2020 9:55 pm

Post by Ankamius »

ya nomnomnom is still the best vote here
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Post Post #4385 (isolation #527) » Sat Jan 25, 2020 9:55 pm

Post by Ankamius »

my reads have shifted a bit and I have a new PoE again, but nom is still like

aggressively not town
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Post Post #4386 (isolation #528) » Sat Jan 25, 2020 9:59 pm

Post by Ankamius »

also I think an EP lynch is still a high quality lynch

Deas is a low quality lynch and Firebringer is like... midtier
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Post Post #4387 (isolation #529) » Sat Jan 25, 2020 10:03 pm

Post by Ankamius »

I think I have a grasp on the game finally

just assuming DeasVail was town is enough to have things finally make sense

I've noticed going back that there's a lot of instances where players I have townreads on are towards the front of wagons, and the more loud/aggressive players in the game

and the slots I have no townread or less strong townreads on are those that are saying a whole lot of nothing or just saying words without pushing anything

considering that the gamestate has been stagnating in a lot of instances since the modkill, this makes total sense as a scum strategy, so I think this is a good track to be operating off of
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Post Post #4388 (isolation #530) » Sat Jan 25, 2020 10:06 pm

Post by Ankamius »

notably, here's something I want to propose people think about:

Why is the nomnomnom wagon constantly the same set of players day after day?


even without assuming that my own slot is town, this is severely town indicative in my eyes since this is the type of game where it's remarkably easy to just help momentum swing towards wagons you want while wagons you don't want just stay momentumless

this is because there really is no strong force pushing people to keep to their own conclusions and account for them, so scum really can just hop wherever they want and have no real repercussions for it

this mindset dramatically shifts things and suddenly some slots that I haven't been paying much attention to look scummier than they did before
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Post Post #4389 (isolation #531) » Sat Jan 25, 2020 10:09 pm

Post by Ankamius »

In post 3818, DeasVail wrote:Nonetheless, I am fairly confident in these people being town:

davesaz
chennisden
panthaleon (he didn't respond to my greeting though :'( )
Gammagooey
Almost50

Ankamius and MariaR are almost there for me I think.

That leaves DEB, FL, kuribo, Espresso, Firebringer, nom

I don't want to lynch FL today.

But apart from that I don't have super strong feelings personally.
all of a sudden I really like this reads list
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Post Post #4390 (isolation #532) » Sat Jan 25, 2020 10:12 pm

Post by Ankamius »

like it's not the same townlist as mine

but I really don't think this is how a scum would fake it, Deas is not an idiot and I don't think he'd be playing this game as scum without an idea of how to progress through the game

and this isn't going to do it
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Post Post #4392 (isolation #533) » Sat Jan 25, 2020 10:13 pm

Post by Ankamius »

it's possible that your reads are literally all incorrect

what does that fucking matter
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Post Post #4397 (isolation #534) » Sat Jan 25, 2020 10:51 pm

Post by Ankamius »

ok I'm going to go a little bit into my theory on the game as a whole here because this is pretty relevant for why nom is just the best lynch today regardless of the read people have on her:

in standard algebra, you specifically try to solve for a variable so that when you put other variables into the equation, you get a certain output back; this requires filling in all other variables for a concrete answer or simplifying the equation as much as possible so it takes the least amount of effort and time to solve for specific variables; [ y = x + 1 ] compared to [ y / 2 = (x + 1) / 2 ], it's easier to calculate the first one compared to the second one because there's less calculations to make.

transferred over to mafia, assuming that the player you're trying to figure out the alignment of is Y and someone else's alignment is X, it's a good stepping stone to figure out X in order to be able to figure out Y; this makes figuring out X more valuable since it directly helps you solve for Y. in the case that there's only two variables, this technically works both ways, but generally in mafia the equivalent equations for solving alignments for players are enormously complex in comparison, so X just becomes significantly more valuable than solving Y since it helps simplify the equation.

now imagine scenarios where X appears so many times in an equation, and that it appears so many times in virtually every single equation. Suddenly solving X simplifies a significant amount of the equations necessary to solve every other alignment, which drastically simplifies the amount of assumptions needed to solve the other equations. The less assumptions needed, the more likely your assumptions are to be correct and the easier it is to backtrack and find the problem when it is wrong.

Now.

nomnomnom and her alignment has been a controversial subject for the entire game.
nomnomnom has been wagoned every single day and has been a vote leader for a significant chunk of the game.
nomnomnom's wagon has been comprised of mostly the same people.

Think of it this way:

1. nomnomnom, if scum, is a scum lynch that will revitalize the game AS WELL AS be a significant source of information to further analyze the game since her alignment flipping removes a lot of assumptions from the game
2. nomnomnom, if town, forces the players that have been pushing for her lynch all game to move on from it, which increases the odds of them giving information that will allow other players to accurately read them in the future
3. regardless of nomnomnom's alignment, virtually every single slot has held a stance on nomnomnom for the entirety of the game that can be analyzed because she has been so controversial for the entire game; but you can only assume what the motivation for those stances are because it can easily switch based on nomnomnom being town, or nomnomnom being scum.
4. nomnomnom is a direct source of tension since she is a very high profile slot in the game, and she's a proxy to tension because the reads on her are so controversial that it's causing a ripple that divides town into two halves

there's really no strong downside to a nomnomnom lynch outside of the idea that a townflip on her means we haven't had a scumflip in 3 days, which might negatively affect morale enough to not revitalize the game like I'm hoping it does. That's a risk I'm willing to take because this exact same risk is significantly amplified in literally any other slot, while it has virtually none of the upsides a nom lynch has.

this game is fucking dead and I really don't think it can be revitalized without removing nom from the game simply because it's causing this many problems in the playerlist.
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Post Post #4399 (isolation #535) » Sat Jan 25, 2020 10:57 pm

Post by Ankamius »

that's alignment neutral and more designed to appeal to those that don't really have reads on those slots
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Post Post #4400 (isolation #536) » Sat Jan 25, 2020 10:57 pm

Post by Ankamius »

at least not strong ones
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Post Post #4402 (isolation #537) » Sat Jan 25, 2020 11:23 pm

Post by Ankamius »

Btw if nom is town, then those that had weak scumreads on me early in the game have a lot of scum equity

Because that's two early unpopular townreads I had that turned out to be correct and I could tell something was off about it but didn't have enough to go off of to investigate it better

(Although odds are it would just be EP anyways)
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Post Post #4410 (isolation #538) » Sun Jan 26, 2020 12:54 am

Post by Ankamius »

Like I said

Probably just EP
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Post Post #4412 (isolation #539) » Sun Jan 26, 2020 1:18 am

Post by Ankamius »

I don't think this game is properly solvable without her flipping sadly

I think DV is disproportionately likely to flip town, DEB is disproportionately likely to flip town, and my other two strong scumreads aren't going to get traction in a gamestate like this

Idk what else to do honestly
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Post Post #4414 (isolation #540) » Sun Jan 26, 2020 1:32 am

Post by Ankamius »

When town is this disorganized, the options are kind of limited?
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Post Post #4418 (isolation #541) » Sun Jan 26, 2020 1:53 am

Post by Ankamius »

Davesaz, almost50
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Post Post #4427 (isolation #542) » Sun Jan 26, 2020 9:24 am

Post by Ankamius »

Oh good lord

1. I've been pretty transparent that my primary goal is to get the town to get motivated to start putting effort into the game again
2. I would gauge reactions as either alignment, especially in a major shift like this one where significantly more AI content is likely to be given
3. Its self evident that nom is tied to the entire playerlist because she's been the most controversial figure that is still alive; even ignoring it completely is relevant
4. The way players interact with each other over time is too complex to go into detail on at any point, nor is it remotely useful because then the scumteam can easily figure out how to counter it
5. You were never off the table, I simply stopped mentioning you
6. Wtf makes this push on you different from any other time I've pushed you? You never had a reaction like this when I openly scumread you before
7. You've made zero mention of any of my other posts nor tried to sort where this scumread on you came from, why exactly are you jumping to the "chain mislynch" conclusion?

As for questions

1. It won't, I will decide if I need to reevaluate DV if the game stops making sense again
2. I don't even understand what the dichotomy between them even is or why it's a thing I keep seeing pushed, so I have no opinion on that
3. His voting history and how he is reacting to how the gamestate is moving around him
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Post Post #4428 (isolation #543) » Sun Jan 26, 2020 9:25 am

Post by Ankamius »

As an aside

VOTE: EspressoPatronum

That post wasn't town
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Post Post #4433 (isolation #544) » Sun Jan 26, 2020 10:05 am

Post by Ankamius »

EC thinks my reply was sufficient for the majority of things he wanted to say, but there's a couple more things he wants to point out.
In post 4425, EspressoPatronum wrote:Scum!Ank would need to find a new angle to get me back on the table as a mislynch. Fabricating a nom/EP dichotomy is a great way to do that, especially considering several players have started to TR me.
In post 4425, EspressoPatronum wrote:Again, pushing the EP mislynch agenda.
First, there are no scum flips and no town reads that everybody can agree on because this game has become essentially garbage. You unvoted me and implied a null or townread on your last comments on me, so why exactly would I look to specifically mislynch you here? The PoE is big enough and you aren't a threat to scum!me as town, so this is a just building a narrative. The agenda you're pushing me having is posturing. That's it. It's not even on anything that scum would do, because it is so obvious that it gets scumread when it would be just as easy for me to wait and push with the exact same logic
after
the town!nom flip in that scenario. It's nonsensical.
In post 4425, EspressoPatronum wrote:I don't trust your motivations, so I'd prefer you lock yourself in to your nom conditionals now.
EC wants to highlight this specifically so that everyone else can look at it separately from everything else and realize how dumb this sounds.
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Post Post #4436 (isolation #545) » Sun Jan 26, 2020 10:26 am

Post by Ankamius »

I just lost like 6 paragraphs of text

fuck everything
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Post Post #4437 (isolation #546) » Sun Jan 26, 2020 10:46 am

Post by Ankamius »

the tl;dr is that the response of 1 and 2 are answered by the same thing:

first, idk what you even mean by conditionals now that I actually look at your post again since I didn't even mention that word at all; the best interpretation I can come to is why 1-4 doesn't already answer that question anyway. I'm not going to go into a ton of detail on every single slot and what exactly changes upon either flip because that amount of work for at best half payoff is actually insane when so much of it is dependent on how people react to and adjust themselves based on the flip.

second, you're actually insane if you think I'm looking to 'manipulate the game after a town!nom flip' because the gamestate we have now is hilariously easy to manipulate as scum because town is so disorganized and with so little threat to me that I could just do whatever I want and probably get away with it because the only way town would ever be able to lynch me at all is via a deadline apathy lynch. and look where we are, around three days to deadline and now I'm making my move? by threatening what little credibility I've managed to scrape together to ram through a controversial lynch and setting up a second mislynch alongside it when it's infinitely better to try to do it after the first flip happened??? I'm a lot more meticulous about this shit as scum, I know how to abuse pressure points in towns and this straight up is not a pressure point.

third, my primary goal being to get town to get motivated again literally is the point of a nom lynch and why I've been pushing it. it's literally an appeal to the rest of the playerlist that there's more to analyze from a nom flip because she's been so central to the game that it adds a known factor to a lot of things that have happened in the game. my own personal ideas of what changes based on what nom flips is too dependent on how the playerlist responds and adjusts to the flip for it to even be possible for me to explain it, and even then that's a hell of a rabbit hole to fall into
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Post Post #4438 (isolation #547) » Sun Jan 26, 2020 10:53 am

Post by Ankamius »

3. the implication is that everybody can get something out of the flip...? which is what I wanted since I want people to be able to get into the game...?

4. because the equations are different to everyone, idk how they look to you or deas or deb or anyone, I only know roughly how they look for me. even then, since I play a lot by intuition, there's a limit to what I know about it.

5. ok, again, why exactly do I specifically need to attach you to nom; I don't have the credibility to force through a nom lynch with being able to explain why basically everybody should want to, what makes you think I have the credibility to set you up for a lynch after her??? you can't even say I'm unaware of it since I've pretty thoroughly proven by now that I am

6. you don't even know where this scumread came from, I thought it was pretty obvious that your name came to me from the town!nom scenario as it happened

7. in that string of posts? you haven't. I explained my general process before going into that big post and made it clear that my reads had changed, including mentioning that slots I had not been considering before were being considered now (you aren't in this list, but considering that you have pointed out that I apparently stopped mentioning you when you started getting townread, it's not exactly weird to assume you are), but you're basing that entire 'agenda' off a single post that I made after all that. I find that quite fascinating.

question 1: see above, my overall goal is to get everyone else more information to solve with since THAT is how I get the information I need to solve with
question 2: ok thank you
question 3: you're welcome
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Post Post #4439 (isolation #548) » Sun Jan 26, 2020 11:00 am

Post by Ankamius »

In post 4431, nomnomnom wrote:@Ank what exactly in EP's post wasn't townie? I want to know as well.
his responses to my posts don't mesh with themselves at all and it's like... busiwork and subtle discredits off essentially nothing

him asking me how you flipping would help me decide on a read on DV is also ??? when I had mentioned in that post that I find him to be significantly more likely to be town than not; the only reason I can think of for why he would single out my read on DV specifically is because it changed from what my read on him was before, but that is such an awkward way of going about sorting it that it's hard to see it as anything other than a discredit trajectory
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Post Post #4441 (isolation #549) » Sun Jan 26, 2020 11:50 am

Post by Ankamius »

VOTE: nomnomnom

dann smacked my brain
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Post Post #4442 (isolation #550) » Sun Jan 26, 2020 11:51 am

Post by Ankamius »

I think I'm causing more damage to my team's sanity by switching my vote all the time than they get from reading the thread
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Post Post #4466 (isolation #551) » Mon Jan 27, 2020 4:37 am

Post by Ankamius »

In post 4463, DeasVail wrote:In regards to Almost50, I struggle to see how he could make up the stuff he's saying in his posts! For example, the post of mine that Gamma recently quoted that was a response to A50. That post seems like the kind of importance town would place upon their own opinion and the sheer IMPACT of their reads. I think scum would struggle to fake that, and why even would they? It's more likely to just make people annoyed with you.
I think a50 is scum but I can explain later
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Post Post #4526 (isolation #552) » Mon Jan 27, 2020 6:05 pm

Post by Ankamius »

In post 4520, Flavor Leaf wrote:@Ank - are there people,pushing for DEB now who weren’t on the wagon earlier, because that’s probably scum indicative.
idk

reading this game is like trying to swim in quicksand
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Post Post #4528 (isolation #553) » Mon Jan 27, 2020 6:08 pm

Post by Ankamius »

btw

V/LA until February 7


it shouldn't affect posting enough to be a problem but I can't 100% guarantee it
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Post Post #4546 (isolation #554) » Mon Jan 27, 2020 11:51 pm

Post by Ankamius »

UNVOTE: nomnomnom

I need to check some things
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Post Post #4547 (isolation #555) » Tue Jan 28, 2020 12:00 am

Post by Ankamius »

The highest value flip for me personally is Almost50 but I don't think it pushes the game forward at all if he flips town and I end up dying

Something is still really off with this game, I feel like I've caught on to enough things that I should have a clear path for how to proceed but it's just causing even more questions
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Post Post #4548 (isolation #556) » Tue Jan 28, 2020 12:00 am

Post by Ankamius »

I wonder if I'm being blindsided by kuribo or firebringer by how they're handling my slot
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Post Post #4550 (isolation #557) » Tue Jan 28, 2020 12:52 am

Post by Ankamius »

I need to double check a lot of things before I can answer that for certain
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Post Post #4555 (isolation #558) » Tue Jan 28, 2020 8:31 am

Post by Ankamius »

In post 4552, kuribo wrote:
In post 4548, Ankamius wrote:I wonder if I'm being blindsided by kuribo or firebringer by how they're handling my slot

Calling you a dick for pointlessly making me voteless is hardly "handling" your slot.
cool

you've keep pointing it out so often that it's making me wonder whether you have other reasons for it
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Post Post #4556 (isolation #559) » Tue Jan 28, 2020 8:31 am

Post by Ankamius »

btw, show's over guys

nom is town
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Post Post #4557 (isolation #560) » Tue Jan 28, 2020 8:38 am

Post by Ankamius »

My initial read on nom wasn't bias, the switch to a scumread was bias since she had a different opinion of what Volpe was doing than I did.

her having virtually the same mindset when approaching my slot when I'm townreading her vs scumreading her is town indicative
her starting the game by provoking me into an aggressive engagement with her is town indicative
in general, my main issue with her this game has been how absurdly aggressive she's been approaching everybody this game and in the end, I think she's far more likely to just fall apart by now as scum rather than just progressively get more annoyed, upset, and frustrated

PLUS

I don't think I was wrong that there was mostly TvT engagements early on in the game
I don't think I was wrong that the Gif+Volpe vs nom neighborhood """""""fight""""""" looked worse on GIF than anybody else, at the very least that whatever the fuck people were up nom's ass for wasn't actually as AI as people were assuming

nom's playstyle is chaos and I've even pointed out in this thread before that she gets scumread really easily because of that, I think that's ultimately the cause of the metric fuckton of scumreads she's gotten all game and that's really the beginning and end of it
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Post Post #4558 (isolation #561) » Tue Jan 28, 2020 8:40 am

Post by Ankamius »

the current scumlist I'm working on is:

Almost50
DeasVail
EspressoPatronum
Flavor Leaf

I don't necessary think that every other slot is town (annoyingly this game is still hard enough to parse that the things I've looked for leads from has only gotten me ONE OTHER townread I can be confident on) but those four slots are the ones standing out to me the most at this point.
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Post Post #4559 (isolation #562) » Tue Jan 28, 2020 8:41 am

Post by Ankamius »

this is the part of the game where I have to go into assumptions I'm not entirely comfortable making to progress so ultimately this is where my analysis stops unless I find more angles to look for leads from
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Post Post #4560 (isolation #563) » Tue Jan 28, 2020 8:41 am

Post by Ankamius »

also the mod lost my vote somewhere, that's very rude
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Post Post #4561 (isolation #564) » Tue Jan 28, 2020 8:42 am

Post by Ankamius »

and yeah I flipped on DV again

it's mainly for that deal he made with me that he'd vote nom if I did and then switched to a really aggressive tone on it
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Post Post #4564 (isolation #565) » Tue Jan 28, 2020 8:50 am

Post by Ankamius »

nom is also more readable towards endgame if you aren't all that familiar with her
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Post Post #4565 (isolation #566) » Tue Jan 28, 2020 8:50 am

Post by Ankamius »

thanks scumbringer
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Post Post #4567 (isolation #567) » Tue Jan 28, 2020 8:54 am

Post by Ankamius »

oh right

this is one of those games
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Post Post #4615 (isolation #568) » Tue Jan 28, 2020 5:18 pm

Post by Ankamius »

I find it very cute that after I call them scum again, EP and FL spend half a page calling me scum
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Post Post #4616 (isolation #569) » Tue Jan 28, 2020 5:20 pm

Post by Ankamius »

VOTE: EspressoPatronum

EC is on board with a50/FL/EP as scum
Dann thinks EP has the highest odds of flipping scum of the four
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Post Post #4620 (isolation #570) » Tue Jan 28, 2020 6:16 pm

Post by Ankamius »

if you think you can turn that into a scumcase, then by all means
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Post Post #4623 (isolation #571) » Tue Jan 28, 2020 7:00 pm

Post by Ankamius »

thank you for the permission

I think I'll do that
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Post Post #4625 (isolation #572) » Tue Jan 28, 2020 7:06 pm

Post by Ankamius »

I'm proud of you EP
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Post Post #4627 (isolation #573) » Tue Jan 28, 2020 7:14 pm

Post by Ankamius »

conviction
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Post Post #4633 (isolation #574) » Tue Jan 28, 2020 8:33 pm

Post by Ankamius »

he's barely keeping up with the game because of how terrible this gamestate is
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Post Post #4634 (isolation #575) » Tue Jan 28, 2020 8:35 pm

Post by Ankamius »

In post 4629, Flavor Leaf wrote:It just feels extremely opportunistic of you to just now call our town block scum, it almost feels like you saw us coming towards Maria and decided to come after us.
also

yeah it's opportunistic, considering that like 80% of the playerlist hasn't listened to me all day and half those reads are unpopular

yuuuuup definitely opportunistic
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Post Post #4635 (isolation #576) » Tue Jan 28, 2020 8:35 pm

Post by Ankamius »

In post 4630, Flavor Leaf wrote:It feels like you’re chainsawing.
no

you're omgusing
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Post Post #4636 (isolation #577) » Tue Jan 28, 2020 8:35 pm

Post by Ankamius »

In post 4632, Flavor Leaf wrote:
In post 4616, Ankamius wrote:VOTE: EspressoPatronum

EC is on board with a50/FL/EP as scum
Dann thinks EP has the highest odds of flipping scum of the four
And for some reason, I just feel this is fake. I’ve been scum with EC multiple times, and I don’t feel like he ever says this. We’re very familiar with each other, and I feel like he’s town read me here
why are you second guessing this before you even say it
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Post Post #4637 (isolation #578) » Tue Jan 28, 2020 8:39 pm

Post by Ankamius »

I'm really wasting my time bothering with this game aren't I
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Post Post #4640 (isolation #579) » Tue Jan 28, 2020 8:46 pm

Post by Ankamius »

if you're actually town and saying all that

then I give up on this game
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Post Post #4641 (isolation #580) » Tue Jan 28, 2020 8:48 pm

Post by Ankamius »

but of course you're scum

it's literally zero risk to just pile onto discrediting me shifting the game so that the game stays stagnant and doesn't move forward

it's not exactly hard to with how little people care
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Post Post #4646 (isolation #581) » Tue Jan 28, 2020 10:47 pm

Post by Ankamius »

In post 4644, Flavor Leaf wrote:You on the other hand aren’t just pushing me, you’re pushing me and 2 of my strongest town reads as the entire scum team.
Hi read my posts please
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Post Post #4647 (isolation #582) » Tue Jan 28, 2020 10:58 pm

Post by Ankamius »

In post 4644, Flavor Leaf wrote:I’m saying how I feel about the game right now, and you’re just shutting down
When the immediate response to me stating a scumread is this, I can't see it as a town response

And I already know it's impossible for me to win it, I'm not an idiot

Disengaging from the thread is the only move that doesn't lose
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Post Post #4649 (isolation #583) » Tue Jan 28, 2020 11:12 pm

Post by Ankamius »

Plus worst case, assuming you all are town

Then it's just proof that several town players aren't townreading me, which is enough to damage my ability to affect the game permanently since any town not townreading me already is never going to be able to

I've tried to rally town together enough this game, and there's no biting. Nobody wants to play still and there's not enough here for me to confidently solve the game when I'm motivated to.

There's really no point in doing anything else. I've laid my cards out and it's up to the test of the plist to make something out of it.
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Post Post #4653 (isolation #584) » Tue Jan 28, 2020 11:26 pm

Post by Ankamius »

Don't know anymore, her voting patterns are on the weird side but I don't think her content is that weird
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Post Post #4657 (isolation #585) » Wed Jan 29, 2020 12:40 am

Post by Ankamius »

EC is hard denying panthaleon lynch
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Post Post #4673 (isolation #586) » Wed Jan 29, 2020 8:23 am

Post by Ankamius »

In post 4664, Almost50 wrote:
In post 4616, Ankamius wrote:EC is on board with a50/FL/EP as scum
But you said he had a HARD TOWN READ on me earlier. Now what exactly has changed in "less than one complete cycle"?
I shat my thought process all over the discord
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Post Post #4703 (isolation #587) » Wed Jan 29, 2020 9:53 am

Post by Ankamius »

In post 4698, Flavor Leaf wrote:Maria is completely distracting off of Ankamius. The timing of her entrance is ridiculous.
I've never seen anything more ironic in my life
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Post Post #4707 (isolation #588) » Wed Jan 29, 2020 9:54 am

Post by Ankamius »

V O T E : E S P R E S S O P A T R O N U M
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Post Post #4708 (isolation #589) » Wed Jan 29, 2020 9:54 am

Post by Ankamius »

In post 4706, Flavor Leaf wrote:
In post 4703, Ankamius wrote:
In post 4698, Flavor Leaf wrote:Maria is completely distracting off of Ankamius. The timing of her entrance is ridiculous.
I've never seen anything more ironic in my life
Convenient timing, yet again.
I've never seen anything more ironic in my life
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Post Post #4709 (isolation #590) » Wed Jan 29, 2020 9:55 am

Post by Ankamius »

it's nice to finally see you on a stage that isn't a broken normal game, scum!FL
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Post Post #4711 (isolation #591) » Wed Jan 29, 2020 9:56 am

Post by Ankamius »

and ftr

I joined when I did because EC pinged me

so (:
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Post Post #4713 (isolation #592) » Wed Jan 29, 2020 9:57 am

Post by Ankamius »

In post 4693, Flavor Leaf wrote:You discredit and shade because that’s all you have to do, when in actuality, you are pretty strongly POE’d out of here.
are we even reading the same game???
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Post Post #4714 (isolation #593) » Wed Jan 29, 2020 9:57 am

Post by Ankamius »

FL YOU HAVEN'T DONE SHIT LOL
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Post Post #4718 (isolation #594) » Wed Jan 29, 2020 9:58 am

Post by Ankamius »

In post 4717, Flavor Leaf wrote:
In post 4714, Ankamius wrote:FL YOU HAVEN'T DONE SHIT LOL
I’ve done the most, what you talk in’ bout
In post 4703, Ankamius wrote:I've never seen anything more ironic in my life
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Post Post #4721 (isolation #595) » Wed Jan 29, 2020 9:59 am

Post by Ankamius »

fucking wild that I call out FL and he suddenly is all over the thread calling the game PoEd out when he hasn't done anything all day
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Post Post #4729 (isolation #596) » Wed Jan 29, 2020 10:10 am

Post by Ankamius »

In post 4725, Flavor Leaf wrote:
In post 4721, Ankamius wrote:fucking wild that I call out FL and he suddenly is all over the thread calling the game PoEd out when he hasn't done anything all day
That’s literally how I play games. You made an incredibly scummy pool list that scum You HAS to push for.

I even gave you the benefit of the doubt and said, if you’re town, you need to see that you’re wrong. I’ve been actively trying to work with you in the case you were town, despite being paranoid of scum you since Day 1.

This isn’t new.

And you guys shading with the “hasn’t done anything” is exactly how scum act towards Town Me.
X


"this is how I play"
"your list is scummy"
"I gave town!you a chance"
"this is how scum act towards me"

none of this indicates anything except that you can rebut with things that you can say in literally any instance and have it fit in some way
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Post Post #4730 (isolation #597) » Wed Jan 29, 2020 10:10 am

Post by Ankamius »

In post 4728, EspressoPatronum wrote:
In post 4711, Ankamius wrote:and ftr

I joined when I did because EC pinged me

so (:
And yet you haven't given us a detailed reasoning behind the ping. You said some shaky information about my lynch on volxen being TMI.

You also seemed to forget that you had a strong scumread on me in D1.

This is the same behaviour from you that I demonstrated in my case on you.
eddie cane???
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Post Post #4731 (isolation #598) » Wed Jan 29, 2020 10:11 am

Post by Ankamius »

if you have to have only one scum in that hood

then it's FL
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Post Post #4735 (isolation #599) » Wed Jan 29, 2020 10:16 am

Post by Ankamius »

VOTE: Flavor Leaf

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