Team Mafia 2020: Normal Game (Endgame)

teacher · Tue Jan 21, 2020 6:55 pm

Im doing my Ari read through, since Im hitting a wall in Math/RC right now and a bit braindead. I came across a kinda weird stance in RCE's posting.

Correct me if Im wrong, but hes dead set on RC's lynch today (3748, 5022)

He's dead set that if RC is scum, Im his partner. (1724, 1732, 3750, 3774)

And he reads me as town (910, 1732, 4603)

Because that adds up to terrible positioning and logic?

teacher · Tue Jan 21, 2020 7:04 pm

In post 5168, MathBlade wrote:
In post 5165, teacher wrote:Im doing my Ari read through, since Im hitting a wall in Math/RC right now and a bit braindead. I came across a kinda weird stance in RCE's posting.

Correct me if Im wrong, but hes dead set on RC's lynch today (3748, 5022)

He's dead set that if RC is scum, Im his partner. (1724, 1732, 3750, 3774)

And he reads me as town (910, 1732, 4603)

Because that adds up to terrible positioning and logic?
Can you repost that with tags please like? I am on mobile and it’s hard af to search and find posts.1000

And it depends. Sometimes people consider multiple worlds or he overall townreads you but if RC is scum your stock goes down. The context of the posts helps.

It is clear he overall townreads me, but considers me like a lock partner to scum!RC if RC scum. Which is why I think the lynch RC stance is odd. It is defensible/appears reasonable given yesterday, and the conflict is only latent (hence the number of posts, and why I only caught it now, as Im doing the multi-tab thing), but I would think given the strength of his stated partner read, that the read on me would lessen his thirst for RC's blood.

teacher · Tue Jan 21, 2020 7:06 pm

In post 5169, Bellaphant wrote:I thought rcs result was just that teacher didn't kill, not that teacher wasn't scum?

That is correct. I did not kill last night (was the result, but its a gray check since there was no kill).

teacher · Tue Jan 21, 2020 7:16 pm

@Skit, FWIW, Ari's step back on RCE was after both you and Ico indicated it was a no go. Youre right that it was before RC, but it was following the temperature of the board. I still do feel better than I did two days ago, but did the re-read as well. LMK if you want more specifics on how I felt then or now.

teacher · Tue Jan 21, 2020 7:16 pm

In post 5179, MathBlade wrote:{RC/Skitter/Bella/Ari} scum pool?

w/r/t the first three, you really think associatives between players of that caliber are that obvious?

teacher · Tue Jan 21, 2020 7:18 pm

In post 5177, MathBlade wrote:If it’s the latter it doesn’t give any info

From my read of the wiki, its the latter -- "has killed"

teacher · Tue Jan 21, 2020 7:20 pm

Im heading to bed. I got excited because I thought I had cracked it -- I didnt like Math's positioning in the botecounts relative to our inactive pool - but Im left without hard conviction. Im going to see what other people make of the last couple of pages now that that info is out, and then try again when rested -- or at least kind of rested.

teacher · Tue Jan 21, 2020 7:25 pm

Bella I believe I likely screwed up your pronouns at one point. My apologies. Until now I didn’t catch it. Be well.

teacher · Tue Jan 21, 2020 7:34 pm

that’s super helpful actually, thanks.

I’m kinda in agreement with Math on RCs reaction to shos (as well as wagon). I’m not voting anywhere til I rest and read again with some confirmed knowledge tho.

teacher · Tue Jan 21, 2020 7:36 pm

FWIW, a detective is less likely with the claimed and crumbed roles already present, and a det+ cig is vanishingly small

teacher · Tue Jan 21, 2020 7:37 pm

A pt this point I’m sheeping you two.

teacher · Tue Jan 21, 2020 7:46 pm

RC is 100 my preferred lynch FWIW.

On maths list, I think skitter is town pretty dang strong. Otherwise open to them and flopz/xtomx style. But you’re driving the wagon.

teacher · Tue Jan 21, 2020 7:53 pm

In post 3902, Saudade wrote:I hardclaim mason

Possibly 3+ confirmable townies fwiw.

teacher · Tue Jan 21, 2020 8:06 pm

That’s possible, but still f elsnless likely than it was an intentional attempt to create associations. I also am inclined to note that it was a relatively easy wagon to grow yesterday, and that RC blew it up, so RC would come first , not the other way round.

In other words, scum!rc can be with scum or town ari, but scum ari must be with scum rc.

teacher · Wed Jan 22, 2020 12:32 am

In post 5241, RCEnigma wrote:
In post 5165, teacher wrote:Im doing my Ari read through, since Im hitting a wall in Math/RC right now and a bit braindead. I came across a kinda weird stance in RCE's posting.

Correct me if Im wrong, but hes dead set on RC's lynch today (3748, 5022)

He's dead set that if RC is scum, Im his partner. (1724, 1732, 3750, 3774)

And he reads me as town (910, 1732, 4603)

Because that adds up to terrible positioning and logic?
I've abandoned the RC/Teacher pairing. Even initially it was only based on a cheeky one off phrase from RC so it was weak to begin with. I was advised not to look too deep into RC pairings if I truly feel RC is scum. I'll just run myself into dead ends.

Then what was the meaning of “in a vacuum” in 4603?

teacher · Thu Jan 23, 2020 7:17 am

I crashed out after date night last night, my apologies. I will get in and catch up tonight - I still want to reread shos ketchup (now x2), but I don’t like that it’s essentially a ventriloquist slot at this point.

teacher · Thu Jan 23, 2020 7:18 am

Also happy cake day Ico.

teacher · Thu Jan 23, 2020 3:18 pm

In post 5768, RadiantCowbells wrote: glgl I'm going to force myself not to post unless someone has a question for me wish me luck

....checks next four posts.

teacher · Thu Jan 23, 2020 3:18 pm

I’m doing about the same skit

teacher · Thu Jan 23, 2020 3:24 pm

Honestly I glossed over them. You’re a functional clear for me. RC I have a really hard time on. Like he’s flopped all over the place (see, eg, me, ari, skit) and is flopping some more (while mocking you for having your reads based on who is sucking up to you, he had been doing the same with Ari/skit) and has mixed a hell of a lot of eta in too. But I can also see quite a lot of town motivation in his play too. I think getting rid of him makes the thread more readable and manageable, but still may not be the optimal play. He’s also right that if we lynch green!shos today that he is the lynch tomorrow.

I have to go back to do my shos reread. I think I’m going to end up with an RC preference, but there’s a hell of a lot of time left in the day and it might be worthwhile to wagon (and perhaps wagon into lynch) xtomx to see what develops.

If there were more specific decelopmebts/claims, I lost them in the mobile read and so will have to refind.

teacher · Thu Jan 23, 2020 3:24 pm

In post 5778, MathBlade wrote:
In post 5776, teacher wrote:I’m doing about the same skit
??? Confused explain this post please

On for an hour available to chat and reading up. I was responding to the 73rd post on the last page, made at 1016.

teacher · Thu Jan 23, 2020 3:29 pm

@skit, I agree. That wasn’t me trying to acumcase him, that was me explaining why I’m not dead set on his lynch if you want me to give the scum reasons, I can do that too.

teacher · Thu Jan 23, 2020 3:43 pm

In post 5790, skitter30 wrote:
In post 5787, teacher wrote:@skit, I agree. That wasn’t me trying to acumcase him, that was me explaining why I’m not dead set on his lynch if you want me to give the scum reasons, I can do that too.
ya i'd like to hear that plz

It’ll prob be after you sign off because I was just mobile checking in now, but:

A. Lack of PR!Rc death
B. Lack of vig or other balance for detective
C. Pirouetting like a top on too many reads
D. Pushing the future clear, after picking up crumbs
E. Making thread unreadable
F. Heavy ate
G. Lack of town cohesion- despite the remarkable level of mutual townreads, town hasn’t been able to work together, and I think RC is the cause of that, as he has blown up multiple wagons he built/pushed/supported (flopz,Ari,shos). Note that this is different than thread unread ability.
H. BoP on Duck and math.

That’s a quick and dirty, but I can come up with a scum narrative fairly well. Part of it is how tomorrow plays in any world: if there is a green flip he is likely the lynch, and so I’m wondering if it’s better to have his flip now to make tomorrow have a better chance of cohesion and solving fegardless of the color he does flip.

teacher · Thu Jan 23, 2020 3:51 pm

In post 5800, RadiantCowbells wrote:
That’s a quick and dirty, but I can come up with a scum narrative fairly well. Part of it is how tomorrow plays in any world: if there is a green flip he is likely the lynch, and so I’m wondering if it’s better to have his flip now to make tomorrow have a better chance of cohesion and solving fegardless of the color he does flip.
This is going to sound mean, but if you can't recognize me as town I have 0 confidence in this town to solve the remainder of the game.
If you're lynching me you're lynching up my lynchpool and winning.

That’s another reason I am conflicted (and have been saying so). I agree with your lynchpool. Gun to my head, I’d say you’re +rand town. But that’s not the ultimate question. The question is what is the most likely winning path. Because - and I think you agree - green today makes you a hell of a lot more likely tomorrow. Assuming town!you, is it better to tak you today and get the cohesion and perhaps a better chance at a red tomorrow, or is it better to chance it today when I think the thread is still going to be less cohesive/good of an environment (and there is a substantial chance of red).

teacher · Thu Jan 23, 2020 4:06 pm

In post 5816, RadiantCowbells wrote:Tris's iso is just... completely devoid of townfeels.

Ummmm......

In post 249, RadiantCowbells wrote:i think tris is town

In post 573, RadiantCowbells wrote:already townreading tris

In post 2991, RadiantCowbells wrote:Tris, idk. Slight townlean but definite scum potential

In post 311, RadiantCowbells wrote:i still think that Tris's posting is generally towny

I mean, I k ow there are definite scumreads interspersed with those too, but that’s why I think you’re pirouetting and the game can’t develop cohesion/trajectory.

teacher · Thu Jan 23, 2020 4:15 pm

In post 5841, MathBlade wrote:
In post 5839, skitter30 wrote:
In post 5818, MathBlade wrote:You have been skimming.
yes i admitted to skimming, your point ... ?
And you never saw the word protective or bothered to look up the outed theory so you skim with context? Bull shit

I believe you’re overreadibg this interaction, regardless of skits alignment.

teacher · Thu Jan 23, 2020 4:18 pm

Ari can you say what you liked about shos catxhup/posting? I feel like it’s all been purportedly hi to, which gives max flexibility and deniability to say “well, now I’ve caught up and disagree”

I also never saw the RCE thing explained

teacher · Thu Jan 23, 2020 4:22 pm

@RC, I’m going to put the phone down for a bit in 10. You said you needed to speak to me. Anything in particular or just getting more takes generally (which I will do, but likely in like 4 hours)

teacher · Thu Jan 23, 2020 4:29 pm

In post 5855, RadiantCowbells wrote: I just want you to, like, be more? do more? idk

I get you on that, but there’s a wicked combo of rl work, gamesolving conflict, thread spamming, and several empty slots getting in the way. I heavily agree w your take on Bella. But I equally heavily disagree with bth your and skitters take on math - he has a consistent mindset and direction. I need more from shos and flopz and saud and xtomx to do something with, and I think. One of the discussions are helping w that.

teacher · Thu Jan 23, 2020 4:31 pm

In post 5860, Aristophanes wrote:Which RCE thing was I to explain? I apologize if I missed it.

No, it’s shos who was asked to explain the RCE scumread, and never did (I don’t think)

teacher · Thu Jan 23, 2020 4:36 pm

Ya I’m weekend vLa again too. So the thread will only grow 30 pages

teacher · Thu Jan 23, 2020 5:04 pm

In post 5656, RCEnigma wrote:I liked the reversal of her Teacher read a

I don’t think it ever reversed?

teacher · Fri Jan 24, 2020 4:02 pm

@RC, why should I townread shos?

teacher · Fri Jan 24, 2020 4:06 pm

teacher · Fri Jan 24, 2020 4:06 pm

vla weekend.

teacher · Sat Jan 25, 2020 2:59 pm

Ugh. Another fun 1v1 “caught!scum” go round with RC. Is this like round 6? (math/flopz/ari/duck/skitter/math/RCE/am I missing any??)

Honestly I could give af at this point. This game sucks, and the thread is unreadable. Hope you’re proud.

teacher · Sat Jan 25, 2020 3:02 pm

In post 6201, RadiantCowbells wrote:
In post 6199, teacher wrote:Ugh. Another fun 1v1 “caught!scum” go round with RC. Is this like round 6? (math/flopz/ari/duck/skitter/math/RCE/am I missing any??)

Honestly I could give af at this point. This game sucks, and the thread is unreadable. Hope you’re proud.
Can you actually read this please.

Just the last 5 pages.

I did. I think I see what you’ve said but I’m fairly drunk so want to sober do it.

teacher · Sat Jan 25, 2020 3:04 pm

In post 5871, teacher wrote:
In post 5860, Aristophanes wrote:Which RCE thing was I to explain? I apologize if I missed it.
No, it’s shos who was asked to explain the RCE scumread, and never did (I don’t think)

In post 5259, teacher wrote:
In post 5241, RCEnigma wrote:
In post 5165, teacher wrote:Im doing my Ari read through, since Im hitting a wall in Math/RC right now and a bit braindead. I came across a kinda weird stance in RCE's posting.

Correct me if Im wrong, but hes dead set on RC's lynch today (3748, 5022)

He's dead set that if RC is scum, Im his partner. (1724, 1732, 3750, 3774)

And he reads me as town (910, 1732, 4603)

Because that adds up to terrible positioning and logic?
I've abandoned the RC/Teacher pairing. Even initially it was only based on a cheeky one off phrase from RC so it was weak to begin with. I was advised not to look too deep into RC pairings if I truly feel RC is scum. I'll just run myself into dead ends.
Then what was the meaning of “in a vacuum” in 4603?

But it did make me want to make sure these get checked off.

teacher · Sat Jan 25, 2020 3:08 pm

In post 6210, Flopz wrote:
In post 6199, teacher wrote:Ugh. Another fun 1v1 “caught!scum” go round with RC.

Honestly I could give af at this point. This game sucks, and the thread is unreadable. Hope you’re proud.
REEEEEEEEEEd it.

I have. What do you want me to do after REEEEeEeEeDing it?

teacher · Sat Jan 25, 2020 3:11 pm

In post 6209, MathBlade wrote:
In post 6206, teacher wrote:
In post 6201, RadiantCowbells wrote:
In post 6199, teacher wrote:Ugh. Another fun 1v1 “caught!scum” go round with RC. Is this like round 6? (math/flopz/ari/duck/skitter/math/RCE/am I missing any??)

Honestly I could give af at this point. This game sucks, and the thread is unreadable. Hope you’re proud.
Can you actually read this please.

Just the last 5 pages.
I did. I think I see what you’ve said but I’m fairly drunk so want to sober do it.
Holy shit Titus may not be so moonlogicky

Dude, do you really think I’m scum? You’ve been like the strongest and most consistent voice in townreading me (other than when I flipped on you for a second when I thought it was a jailkeeper situation). Is being too drunk to want to tangle in an RC situation on a Saturday when I’m vLa that weird?

I’m really not sure what to make of another 180 from RC, and I’d rather not parse that out rn, because I straight up don’t trust myself.

teacher · Sat Jan 25, 2020 3:16 pm

It is a 180 - you’re pairing him with shos whose wagon you derailed by calling town. I agree you haven’t been strong on RC but it’s a sudden flip/reversal of the shiny new target and I’m just about done with it. It is once again pushing at cohesion. It’s not that what you say doesn’t have validity - it does - but it’s once again shifting wagons and changing pushes and I’m surprised you’d portray it as anything other than that when you’re also basically saying the last five pages have solved/ended the game. If the latter is true, it’s a reversal from what came before those pages.

teacher · Sat Jan 25, 2020 3:21 pm

I’m done. See y’all tomorrow.

teacher · Sat Jan 25, 2020 3:26 pm

Nah man. Shouldn’t have come in here. Tonight was actually the best one - most substantive and least ad hominem - just fucking over this game. Never been in a 250 game, and really need to have an angel tel me your alignment so I can make sense of the thread. I feel like your the sun in that the game revolves around you (understandable given posting levels), but makes it hard to solve when I don’t know whether the sun is good or bad.

teacher · Sun Jan 26, 2020 6:38 am

In post 6304, RadiantCowbells wrote:and the strong townies all dead.

Ummm unless I’m mistaken, the nks are fairly chained, ya?

And, thanks, I suppose, for your assessment of my strength (/sarcasm).

Driving back home but I’ll be on tonight.

@math leave me something bugging you about me-RCE to address so I can try to get that out of your head. Like you’ve been trying to legit solve and I like your perspective. I’ll even agree with you that the associatives are there, because I like the guy. But I’d rather have you working in a way that might help me see something, rather than a way I know is barking up the wrong tree.

teacher · Mon Jan 27, 2020 6:50 am

@math: I think it’s more a foreign language issue rather than A slip, but appreciate it.

What “L” are we at. I’m ready to go sau I think.

It’s my birthday so limited availability today but will be skimming.

teacher · Mon Jan 27, 2020 9:16 am

Well my two towns got together, and I’m fine with it even if I’d rather either saud or RC.

VOTE: shos

teacher · Mon Jan 27, 2020 10:36 am

I will vote as well. We have time to allow for a claim. Let’s get one.

intent to L-1 or hammer - whatever. Saud claim.

teacher · Mon Jan 27, 2020 10:48 am

Nope. Was just driving home from school.

VOTE: saud

l-1.

teacher · Mon Jan 27, 2020 10:49 am

Also math, you aren’t conf!towb, just 99.99%

(No kill + doc target is possible, just vanishingly unlikely, same as town!rolestopper stopping kill on not!you, such that the save is irrel. I truly believe you’re clear, just pointing out the conf! Or mech!town isn’t 100%

teacher · Mon Jan 27, 2020 10:54 am

In post 6538, MathBlade wrote:
In post 6536, teacher wrote:I will vote as well. We have time to allow for a claim. Let’s get one.

intent to L-1 or hammer - whatever. Saud claim.
Just L-1 teacher. As conf town I will have hammer so day ends when town wants.

Because you said this and it isn’t true. I’m a stickler for accuracy (hence my round and rounds with RC on overstating and whether something was a reversal or wasn’t). You’ve said similar things before, and it’s not accurate and this time I felt like pointing it out, while at the same time sharing that I thought the distinction was not substantive/impt.

teacher · Mon Jan 27, 2020 10:57 am

Why I think 99.99999999 percent. I just object to calling someone an IC who is not actually mech cleared. Let’s drop it - it was meant to be a parenthetical not a thing worth taking up space in this already bananas thread.

teacher · Mon Jan 27, 2020 11:00 am

In post 6553, MathBlade wrote:FoS Teacher

Again, you’ve been doing this for the last like 48 hours (with RCE and now in general) and I am again forced to ask you to back it up.

You said something objectively wrong. I called it objectively wrong while still saying I had you hard town. What is suspicious - or even “shading” about calling you 99% clear?

Kindly actually back it up - like I asked yesterday - or shut up.

teacher · Mon Jan 27, 2020 11:07 am

In post 6560, MathBlade wrote:
In post 6557, teacher wrote:
In post 6553, MathBlade wrote:FoS Teacher
Again, you’ve been doing this for the last like 48 hours (with RCE and now in general) and I am again forced to ask you to back it up.

You said something objectively wrong. I called it objectively wrong while still saying I had you hard town. What is suspicious - or even “shading” about calling you 99% clear?

Kindly actually back it up - like I asked yesterday - or shut up.

My backing it up is something I could not do as I was on VLA yesterday.

Your associatives with shos and RCE are piss poor. It also explains the me kill to policy RC then coast.

Right, but the whole reason you were FoSing me yesterday was because I was vLa and so didn’t want to try to parse RCE/RC while drunk. Apparently being vLa is good enough for you but not for me?

My associatives with shos are, what exactly? I granted you RCE but shos one you’re just not going to be able to back up.

You had me as hard town until the vLa thing and are now all over the FoSing, and for reasons that are ?????

teacher · Mon Jan 27, 2020 11:50 am

Since when is RC conf town????? I mean, like, I think it but conf!town???? Part of the value of this lynch was the open acceptance of BoP as a way to sort, right? That’s why RC backed off shos and onto saud while calling both scum?

teacher · Mon Jan 27, 2020 11:52 am

In post 6571, MathBlade wrote:5 conf towns.

You keep using that word.

I do not think that word means what you think it means.

teacher · Mon Jan 27, 2020 11:58 am

Ah, didn’t see that it depended on your perspective slip theory. Gotcha (even I I don’t necessarily agree with the conclusion, I see your path)

teacher · Mon Jan 27, 2020 12:00 pm

In post 6579, RCEnigma wrote:Teacher what's up. What are your actual thoughts on saudade?

Has taken zero effort to get into the game. Had always read it as an empty slot since it’s prior owner. Am fine with the lynch, both as part of a small PoE and as a potential cure for RC paranoia.

I preferred shos to saud earlier this turn because I thought there could be some legitimacy to the mason claim (I had to foiled skitter as a partner due to her pushing against that wagon, and it seemed somewhat ok with both their early games). Now, though, shos is way more involved and saud still refuses to give content so....hang.

You?

teacher · Mon Jan 27, 2020 12:02 pm

Heading out for dinner and celebration tonight, by the way, so can’t actually chat but wanted to respond

teacher · Mon Jan 27, 2020 1:24 pm

In post 6623, MathBlade wrote:
In post 6618, RadiantCowbells wrote:This isn't a Gambit this is just a joke that I didn't expect you to take seriously

In post 6620, RadiantCowbells wrote:My locktownreads in {RC Ico Math Flopz Skitter} are very very probably not wrong.
I agree with all but teacher and Skitter.

One probably I am wrong on but not both.

Just want this in my iso for more laughs later.

teacher · Mon Jan 27, 2020 1:34 pm

In post 6624, MathBlade wrote:Especially if Saud is scum I got some reevaluating to do

But teacher pushing me as not conf town when I said saud might be a mason is disgusting

You are, in fact, not conf town.

Calling someone 99%town is not pushing.

I don’t know where either of these things is confusing.

teacher · Mon Jan 27, 2020 2:54 pm

In post 5888, teacher wrote:
In post 5656, RCEnigma wrote:I liked the reversal of her Teacher read a
I don’t think it ever reversed?

@RC?

teacher · Mon Jan 27, 2020 3:10 pm

left off the E - was pinging RCE on that if possible before the moon rises

Since we now have an actual scum flip, Im excited to try to sort through this game again overnight with actual info!!!!

teacher · Mon Jan 27, 2020 3:13 pm

(c'mon Math, thats like the perfect set up for you to point out its not actual conf!scum. Man, I was so hoping to see that, I was even laughing to myself as typing. Well, at least one of us is amused

)

teacher · Mon Jan 27, 2020 3:33 pm

nice glad you got in w that i agree

is xtomx-bella really poszible

teacher · Mon Jan 27, 2020 3:36 pm

ico math
rce rc
skit ari
shos
flopz
bella
xtomx

teacher · Mon Jan 27, 2020 3:36 pm

before reread

teacher · Mon Jan 27, 2020 3:37 pm

crap shos was supposed to go at bellas level fat finger

noted and agreed

teacher · Thu Jan 30, 2020 12:07 am

In post 6688, Iconeum wrote:I'm a simple doc btw

can only target vanilla roles

Wait you were going to target RC the claimed detective????

Apologies if this has been done. Just reading since daystart.

teacher · Thu Jan 30, 2020 12:16 am

In post 5199, Iconeum wrote:I softed protective when I went against RC on D1 saying I thought it was incredibly unlikely he would be NK'd. At that time I thought to be protecting him. By the end of D1, I considered Math was the most likely NK.

Anyone saying after this that scum DELIBERATELY NK'd is either drunk or scum

??????
Like how could a “vanilla doc” do this, ya? Am I missing something.

teacher · Thu Jan 30, 2020 12:30 am

In post 6733, Iconeum wrote:
In post 6731, teacher wrote:
In post 5199, Iconeum wrote:I softed protective when I went against RC on D1 saying I thought it was incredibly unlikely he would be NK'd. At that time I thought to be protecting him. By the end of D1, I considered Math was the most likely NK.

Anyone saying after this that scum DELIBERATELY NK'd is either drunk or scum
??????
Like how could a “vanilla doc” do this, ya? Am I missing something.
can you rephrase your question?

RC was claimed detective.
You can only protect vanilla.
Why would you plan to save someone who, if town and honest, you could not save?

teacher · Thu Jan 30, 2020 12:33 am

He hard repeated it. Now, it’s RC so of course a grain or half bottle of salt, but ....

To be clear (since there are maths around who need it all spelled out), I still very very much townread both your play and your claim, I was just looking to understand the new details in light of the earlier thought process

teacher · Thu Jan 30, 2020 12:34 am

In post 6738, Iconeum wrote:
In post 6737, teacher wrote:
In post 6733, Iconeum wrote:
In post 6731, teacher wrote:
In post 5199, Iconeum wrote:I softed protective when I went against RC on D1 saying I thought it was incredibly unlikely he would be NK'd. At that time I thought to be protecting him. By the end of D1, I considered Math was the most likely NK.

Anyone saying after this that scum DELIBERATELY NK'd is either drunk or scum
??????
Like how could a “vanilla doc” do this, ya? Am I missing something.
can you rephrase your question?
RC was claimed detective.
You can only protect vanilla.
Why would you plan to save someone who, if town and honest, you could not save?
have you ever played any game before with RC?

One played, two modded I believe. And don’t recall that but saw reference to it this game, so I get that. But I thought he was approaching the claim differently thank just a lolclaim by mid-D1. It’s not important for the reason I said last post, but just something that stuck out to me.

teacher · Thu Jan 30, 2020 12:59 am

In post 6679, Bellaphant wrote:Hi,

So that's a really weird kill, I was sure that scum would go after ico as a claimed doc. So I jail kept him last night to protect him.

I jailkept rce night one, which was why I was so waffly on my read yesterday - I thought he was town but the no kill really confused me.
It's also why j was less happy to just jump on 'we have two conf town'.
I'm outing this now as my role was only n1-2. Obviously there is a world in which rce and ico are both scum, mechanically.

@teacher, skitter, thoughts?

What do we make of Ari town casing saud after I was wanting to lynch him while we were wagoning shos?

Very interesting (quick thoughts while I get dressed for school)

1. RC called out ari-tris(saud) associatives D1 frequently. I also think the wagon in1801 and whatever the D2 wagon on ari is feels mostly town.

2. That said, I have real faith in skit’s meta-ari town read, and skit herself was pushing against saud as well.

3. RCE as a jail target is complicated, because I could definitely see him being selected to do the kill if paired with tris and xtomx. But I do pretty strongly townread him.

4. My preferred lynch until the slot gets content is xtomx. I actually townread shos fairly well.

teacher · Thu Jan 30, 2020 2:17 am

For deep wolf I see RCE as more likely than math. Math has been off base (@shos, that may have been my favorite ever image), but shows a consistent mindset and effort to solve. RCE has been more laidback, but I still really townread him and view him as a more likely killer than killer. Regardless, I have no interest in lynching either today, and would put the odds of both being town fairly high. Today for me is sorting xtomx and ari some more.

teacher · Thu Jan 30, 2020 2:17 am

In post 6747, teacher wrote:more likely killer than killer.

Autocorrect. More likely killee than killer.

teacher · Thu Jan 30, 2020 5:04 am

You realize he answered that question like 2 posts (and possibly 20 words) later, ya?

Also, agree w xtomx that massclaim at this point (3 public claimed PRs) prob makes sense. Skit, when you’re around, thoughts on that?

teacher · Thu Jan 30, 2020 5:15 am

I’d like to know quickly how you feel about skit and me post flip and pre read.

teacher · Thu Jan 30, 2020 5:21 am

Kk enjoy work today.

teacher · Thu Jan 30, 2020 5:28 am

I’d like xtomx unvoted after the neighbor claim, to wait for counters.

I find that particular targeting, along with nothing happening, questionable. I would think sau would try to pick an influencer rather than a silent slot. But maybe scum were confident in an RC turbo lynch and building a later plan?

I don’t think it’s clearing, but on balance I do think it’s slightly town indicative. My problem is with the nothing happening. If xtomx’s reason for avoid the thread was RC, why not comment there (perhaps vLa, but I just don’t like it generally). Xtomx, you want to comment on that?

teacher · Thu Jan 30, 2020 5:32 am

Site mechanics question - when a new person is neighborized, is the neighborhood changed or can they see the prior thread? Like I could see a scum multi-day plan to neighborize their partner first if a towny could see it on a later day, to be anti-associatives, but for that to work the neighborhood would have to have chat (staged from the scum pt) put into it to be more effective. And given the slots general effort/involvement this game, I am definitely buying into the fact that the neighborhood was quiet.

teacher · Thu Jan 30, 2020 5:33 am

Wait, I already know it’s the same neighborhood. Ya, I’m thinking it’s more town indicative than I had before, but still not clearing and also a weird target.

teacher · Thu Jan 30, 2020 6:44 am

In post 6785, MathBlade wrote:
In post 6782, teacher wrote:I’d like xtomx unvoted after the neighbor claim, to wait for counters.

I find that particular targeting, along with nothing happening, questionable. I would think sau would try to pick an influencer rather than a silent slot. But maybe scum were confident in an RC turbo lynch and building a later plan?

I don’t think it’s clearing, but on balance I do think it’s slightly town indicative. My problem is with the nothing happening. If xtomx’s reason for avoid the thread was RC, why not comment there (perhaps vLa, but I just don’t like it generally). Xtomx, you want to comment on that?
Don’t get me wrong haven’t read and I think Xtom should post content but why are you assuming there was a neighbor at all? And what benefit would Scum get from hooding Xtom? Xtom claiming/being a neighbor is weird.

Again I haven’t read what prompted it but that is weird.

Said flipped neighborizor?
Would be weird not to, you know, beighborize - certainly possible, but I don’t really see a good reason not to
Xtomx claimed they did, and that is to me more likely than scum sitting on a potential masonry-like power simply for the ability to claim it later.

teacher · Thu Jan 30, 2020 6:49 am

In post 6803, MathBlade wrote:
In post 6697, Bellaphant wrote:I was only night 1 and 2, technically I was an alien but it worked as a jk. If icos town pr also has limits on it, that makes sense?
Ive been town reading you since day one ico, but you must be able to see why I'm a bit concerned right now.

Not masses, but I'll go back and find, ico
I am thinking scum attempted to hood me if you jailkept me
Then Ico as traitor was shot (or if Ico was not shot the traitor was)

This makes sense for the lack of kill and I was saved I am just thinking wrong save

RCE+ico+Xtom?

VOTE: xtom

This post is just WOW (Sorry after my last post I realized there had been like a page of content)

teacher · Thu Jan 30, 2020 6:51 am

Flopz next.

teacher · Thu Jan 30, 2020 6:52 am

Then popcorn?

Xtomx, talk about what you like from RCE?

teacher · Thu Jan 30, 2020 8:31 am

Vt - hadn’t claimed because I was in class not on phone.

I’d like RCE to go next.

teacher · Thu Jan 30, 2020 9:49 am

Driving shortly. Popcorn to ari

teacher · Thu Jan 30, 2020 9:52 am

also could people explicitly say they weren’t neighvorizsd.

teacher · Thu Jan 30, 2020 2:25 pm

@Bella, can we get the proper name for your role, and more specifics about its limitations?

i.e., was it a 2-shot Alien? N1 + N2 Alien? etc.

teacher · Thu Jan 30, 2020 2:25 pm

Same to you at Ico -- what was it titled?

teacher · Thu Jan 30, 2020 2:32 pm

popcorns actually on you ari. claim?

teacher · Thu Jan 30, 2020 2:33 pm

toc tic....toc tic

teacher · Thu Jan 30, 2020 2:36 pm

PSA on claims and neighbors. All slots have posted since xtom claimed neighborized, but some have not explicitly addressed it.

Player	Role Claim	neighbor
Math	vt	NO
RCE	vt	-
Ari		-
Ico	'nilla doc (my paraphrase)	-
shos	vt	-
Bella	N1-2 Alien	NO
xtomx	vt	YES
flopz	vt	-
teacher	vt	NO
skit	vt	NO

teacher · Thu Jan 30, 2020 2:51 pm

So given "normal" normal set-ups, I am very inclined to believe that the three claimed town PRs are in fact town.

I do not believe either of the protective targets can be considered cleared, given the potential conflict even if both are town.

Anyone disagree?

teacher · Thu Jan 30, 2020 3:08 pm

Spoiler: colored VCs

Simply for what they are worth, since I use them too. It kinda confirms my desire to be focusing on Ari/Shos today, so dont know what people are up to rn, other than Math who is exploring the dark side of the moon.

teacher · Thu Jan 30, 2020 3:10 pm

In post 6930, skitter30 wrote:teacher what do u think about math ?

I see your problems, but I also see a super consistent mindset. I think its town, and regardless dont think either it or RCE are todays lynch (I think we learn more about both's deepwolf potential by how they each position themselves around the wagons).

teacher · Thu Jan 30, 2020 3:14 pm

VC 1.14 and 1.22 (knowing Im green) make me particularly want to hit Ari, as do the D1 Tris associatives. How are you feeling about your meta case?

teacher · Thu Jan 30, 2020 3:27 pm

In post 6935, skitter30 wrote:
In post 6932, teacher wrote:
In post 6930, skitter30 wrote:teacher what do u think about math ?
I see your problems, but I also see a super consistent mindset. I think its town, and regardless dont think either it or RCE are todays lynch (I think we learn more about both's deepwolf potential by how they each position themselves around the wagons).
i don't see the super consistent mindset, i see him making up more things that don't make sense as people point out that what he's saying is kinda silly

I see an uber technical approach to language and looking for silly slips rather than holistic analysis. I see getting consistently caught in the rabbit hole of possibilities rather than thinking through what is probable.

(Ordinarily Id consider the latter to be a scum-tell, courtesy of mastina, but here it just somehow feels like true (though truly outrageous) paranoia).

teacher · Thu Jan 30, 2020 3:32 pm

In post 6937, skitter30 wrote:
In post 6931, teacher wrote:VOTE COUNT 1.22
the worst (6): tris, skitter30, radiantCowbells, Plum, MathBlade, Flopz
Aristophanes (3): teacher, Bellaphant, iconeum
radiantCowbells (2): Xtoxm, the worst
Plum (1): RCEnigma

Not voting (1): Aristophanes
is this basically the same argument you made in the open?
i'm p sure that was you but could you just refresh my memory what the context was?

i still think ari is town
i don't see myself lynching there today

The open? (not sure what you mean here -- are you asking about the tris associatives?

Context - 1.22 was the wrapping of the day, as I tried to derail the RC/TW 1v1 onto an alternate target. I was actually more interested in 1.14, as well as the mid-day 2 VCs, where I see all town (claimed PRs) or my own personal heavy town-reads on Ari. 1.22 is just another example where I see an all-town counterwagon to a townlynch.

I think he is not the same alignment as math (in part due to Math's presence there early D2). Thus I think his flip provides guidance either way.

teacher · Thu Jan 30, 2020 3:35 pm

In post 6939, skitter30 wrote:
In post 6938, teacher wrote:I see an uber technical approach to language and looking for silly slips rather than holistic analysis. I see getting consistently caught in the rabbit hole of possibilities rather than thinking through what is probable.
ya so incidentally i think that these are behaviors that are more likely to come from scum then town
it doesn't really seem genuine to me, his scumteam theories are kinda ridiculous and are getting worse as time goes on and i'm having a hard time believing that he's sincere

Ya, that might be a bit of it too. I almost feel like a nervous breakdown coming through the screen. Too scummy to be scum. Like the theories are just ridiculous and laughable, but then why be so moonshotty?

Bottom line, Im not going to stop the consensus if that's where its heading, and would even join it if needed. But I dont think its the best target for today, and certainly not the early day, since the slot is going to participate and react regardless.

teacher · Thu Jan 30, 2020 3:37 pm

In post 6936, Aristophanes wrote:
In post 6933, teacher wrote:VC 1.14 and 1.22 (knowing Im green) make me particularly want to hit Ari, as do the D1 Tris associatives. How are you feeling about your meta case?
Why these in particular out of curiosity??

The wagon on you is pretty heavily town to me at those points - like nearly universally, or with one potential scum so if you flipped town Id find it helpful.

teacher · Thu Jan 30, 2020 3:41 pm

In post 6944, skitter30 wrote:actually wicked hadn't flipped yet, whatever

my point remains

And so does mine. If we had flipped town!Wooper at that point, it would have conf!scummed Wicked, especially upon my death.

Likewise, flip town!ari here, and to me it conf!scums Math in 1.14 and the Day 2 VCs.

teacher · Thu Jan 30, 2020 3:44 pm

In post 6946, Aristophanes wrote:does that mean you are confident one of us is scum or??

Ya, Im very inclined that way.

teacher · Thu Jan 30, 2020 3:46 pm

fair enough.

Can you call out where Math attacked you for calling him non-conftown? I saw you mentioned that, but had it in my head as mostly associated with me.

teacher · Thu Jan 30, 2020 3:51 pm

In post 6934, Aristophanes wrote:I'd prefer unflipped PRs be maybe blue

Your wish is my command

Spoiler: different colors

teacher · Thu Jan 30, 2020 3:58 pm

@skit, what do you think of my TvS Ari-Math theory. IF you buy into that, Im down to lynch Math (looking over VCs, and I like it).

My issue is that I dont think yesterday was an all-town wagon, that would almost be too easy, and I am much more heavily town on everyone but Ari. But I will give up the ghost if I cant get at all interested.

teacher · Thu Jan 30, 2020 4:06 pm

In post 6956, skitter30 wrote:is the ari/math thing based off of anything other than that vc?

also by yesterday you mean the lynch wagon or something else ?

The theory is VC-based, but more than one VC:

1.12-1.14, the Ari wagon is all fairly heavy townreads + Math
1.17-1.18 same
1.19-1.END all townreads (or only claimed PRs and me), no math
2.1-2.5 all townreads + Math

I also like Ari in general because I find his flip informative on the Shos wagon D2, but I'm willing to use the transitive property.

As for yesterday, I meant the lynch wagon. Im somewhat sheeping on Flopz, but Im willing do that pretty hard.

teacher · Thu Jan 30, 2020 4:12 pm

Yea, I believe in associative VCA (and think it would have given a better insight into that C9++ game, both on wicked and volpe had it been followed after Almost50 and my death, and DrD towntelling), but I think Im preaching to the wind about the tool in general.

Open question to anyone townreading Ari -- try to sell me?

teacher · Thu Jan 30, 2020 4:14 pm

My question about buy in, btw, is a bit on your early push against the Saudade wagon, and your refusal to get off Duck's wagon D1. Like I could see a world that is you-ari-saud but dont have you as scum in another other possible world, so wanted to see if youd commit to an Ari flip if Math flips town. You wont, and thats fair enough -- I still read you as hard town and believe its a genuine read, but its the one area we dont overlap.

Im also soft on flopz, but sheeping the you-rc discussions from yesterday a bit.

teacher · Thu Jan 30, 2020 4:17 pm

Also, given claims, I dont believe a traitor is at all possible, and would like to hear Math's stance on that.

teacher · Thu Jan 30, 2020 4:19 pm

Alright, well I think I know where everyone who is online stands. Imma let this convo sit out there a bit for reactions and get to the grading Im trying too desparately to avoid. Be well, Skit/Ari.

teacher · Thu Jan 30, 2020 4:22 pm

Ari, what do you think of the neighbor claim (I think you asked the question of what went on, but dont recall a reaction from you). Im still inclined to view it as town indicative from xtom, and agree shos>xtomx

teacher · Thu Jan 30, 2020 4:24 pm

In post 6967, MathBlade wrote:RC was also beginning to suspect Skitter before he died

Ummmm, RC's last read post:

In post 6620, RadiantCowbells wrote:My locktownreads in {RC Ico Math Flopz
Skitter
[/size]} are very very probably not wrong.

Say wha????

teacher · Thu Jan 30, 2020 4:34 pm

In post 6967, MathBlade wrote:Just got home can’t keep up.

Traitor imho is required or Bella+Ico has to have a scum.

One protective + 1 shot strongman = balanced
Two protectives + perma strongman = balanced

Kill failed latter not possible. So traitor required and/or one scum in Bella/Ico required

Of the two Ico is most likely considering Xtom likely lynchbait

With all the townreads of Ari I was likely not the kill forcing RCE scum so RCE + Ico

Traitor is skitter because skitter knows my scum game and this ain’t it and RC was also beginning to suspect Skitter before he died

There is just way too much in here for me to digest:
1. Im not a set-up guy, but I view JK/Alien as a semi-utility role that can hurt down by keeping town PRs. I also view docs as weak PRs given its low odds of success, weakened more here by potential to target PRs. In all, I think this town has the equivalent of 1 full-strength protective, and could see an X-shot strongman killing RC last night, and saving power N-1. Where do you think we have 2 full protectives?

2. As an aside, I also see this as a generally understrength town -- the protective analysis above plus the JOAT -- who has 3 investigative powers, but all are only semi-investigative (gray check on me, probably motion detector fail on Ico last night). So you think that this understrength town was put into a 9-4 setup rather than the usual 10-3 setup??????

3. What does Ico's alignment have to do with xtomx's? Like at all?

4. I already responded on the RC-skitter point

Pedit -- started this a while ago.

teacher · Thu Jan 30, 2020 4:37 pm

In post 6982, MathBlade wrote:Alien on RC allows follow the invest.

Nope, Alien rolestops RC.

teacher · Thu Jan 30, 2020 4:38 pm

In post 6981, teacher wrote:3. What does Ico's alignment have to do with xtomx's? Like at all?

teacher · Thu Jan 30, 2020 4:40 pm

In post 6984, MathBlade wrote:Lol no just no Alien is one of the most powerful role there is.

Very easily self confirming.

Two protectives + JOAt is op as fuck. Would need a traitor to balance along with three PRs at minimum like fuck.

Really gotta go

Like I said not a set-up guy. Can I crowdsource this one? My instinct is Math's wrong, but Id like confirmation.

And it self-confirms only if it targets a town PR, ya? In other words, quite literally only in the roughly 10% chance Bella happened to target RC?

teacher · Thu Jan 30, 2020 4:49 pm

Math, for whenver you are back:

In a situation where there is no kill N1, you think scum!Ico first crumbs -- and then claims -- protective? When scum!Ico knows there is a protective out there, and so it is liable to be counterclaimed? When Ico is already fairly heavily townread, and so would be sacrificing a survivor position in order to........what exactly?????????

Im sorry, just no. Like your reads have gone way too far round the bend for me to believe any serious person could possibly hold them.

VOTE: Math

teacher · Thu Jan 30, 2020 4:59 pm

In post 6981, teacher wrote:
In post 6967, MathBlade wrote:Just got home can’t keep up.

Traitor imho is required or Bella+Ico has to have a scum.

One protective + 1 shot strongman = balanced
Two protectives + perma strongman = balanced

Kill failed latter not possible. So traitor required
and/or
one scum in Bella/Ico required

Of the two Ico is most likely considering Xtom likely lynchbait

With all the townreads of Ari I was likely not the kill forcing RCE scum so RCE + Ico

Traitor is skitter because skitter knows my scum game and this ain’t it and RC was also beginning to suspect Skitter before he died
There is just way too much in here for me to digest:
1. Im not a set-up guy, but I view JK/Alien as a semi-utility role that can hurt down by keeping town PRs. I also view docs as weak PRs given its low odds of success, weakened more here by potential to target PRs. In all, I think this town has the equivalent of 1 full-strength protective, and could see an X-shot strongman killing RC last night, and saving power N-1. Where do you think we have 2 full protectives?

2. As an aside, I also see this as a generally understrength town -- the protective analysis above plus the JOAT -- who has 3 investigative powers, but all are only semi-investigative (gray check on me, probably motion detector fail on Ico last night). So you think that this understrength town was put into a 9-4 setup rather than the usual 10-3 setup??????

3. What does Ico's alignment have to do with xtomx's? Like at all?

4. I already responded on the RC-skitter point

Pedit -- started this a while ago.

Let me add
5. I get the OR part, at least fypov even if I disagree. But your post requires the AND part. Your view is that town was put into a 9-4 game with only a 3-shot semi investigative and a 2-shot semi-protective. Everyone else has claimed vt. That is what saud+ico+RCE+skitter would mean, to be clear.

teacher · Thu Jan 30, 2020 5:30 pm

In post 6917, Bellaphant wrote:Town, n1-2 alien

In post 6697, Bellaphant wrote:I was only night 1 and 2,

In post 6679, Bellaphant wrote:I'm outing this now as my role was only n1-2.

teacher · Thu Jan 30, 2020 5:31 pm

Would you kindly address the question of scum!icos motive for crumbing and then claiming protective first?

teacher · Thu Jan 30, 2020 5:34 pm

In post 6995, MathBlade wrote:I say secret Vig because they would have to become essentially a VT if their shot failed.

But why wouldn’t they claim vig. Remember all slots have claimed, and a failed shot would be relevant info to weigh with other actions. Its like you’re ignoring the massclaim.

teacher · Fri Jan 31, 2020 12:28 am

In post 7093, MathBlade wrote:
In post 6896, teacher wrote:Vt - hadn’t claimed because I was in class not on phone.

I’d like RCE to go next.

In post 6905, teacher wrote:Driving shortly. Popcorn to ari
I wonder how RCE’s zero posts convinced Teacher to popcorn to Ari next

RCE claimed between these two posts.

teacher · Fri Jan 31, 2020 12:29 am

In post 6901, RCEnigma wrote:VT. In the process of repairing an axle.

teacher · Fri Jan 31, 2020 12:33 am

UNVOTE: math

I agree with Ico and this is purely by tone.

I want Ari because of my TvS read of the pair.

@RCE somewhere in my ketchup you said that was a one way ratchet. Which way, and why not the other?

teacher · Fri Jan 31, 2020 12:41 am

In post 7091, MathBlade wrote:Teacher has a weird associative if RCE is scum
Where he literally understands the read of him+RCE and gets it
Then complains when I never elaborated

I understand it because I really like RCE so probably have positive tone around him, and I also have waffles on his slot (I was in the exact same boat as RC, weakly townreading but sheeping and viewing as a possible error vector).

My problem was not that you wouldn’t elaborate your read. I never asked you to do that. My problem was that you wouldn’t deal with me at all. You went from hard townreading me to scumreadinf me simply because I wouldn’t play drunk in a toxic cesspool, and then wouldn’t ask me questions AFTER I CAME BACK sober to try to get past your paranoia. Back then I had you as strong town and your refusal to engage (not elaborate, engage) was preventing us from working together.

teacher · Fri Jan 31, 2020 5:32 am

Math - who do you townread? And am I scum generally or only with RC?

I can’t tell what world you’re living in, and I need to try to see it from your eyes.

teacher · Fri Jan 31, 2020 7:16 am

That doesn’t actually answer my question. Could you say the names of the people that you town read.

teacher · Fri Jan 31, 2020 7:37 am

That like a weighted list? You’ve just thrown enough shade that I have no idea where you are at as like a holistic thing.

teacher · Fri Jan 31, 2020 8:50 am

In post 7169, MathBlade wrote:So teacher

Let me ask you something here.

Assume RCE is town (imho laughable) and that I am scum (I know I am not)

What happened N1? Why was RCE such a valuable kill shot?

I just don’t see scum shooting RCE night one over RC.

1. The request was for a weighted readslist. You know what that is. Why aren’t you giving one?

2. Re: N1 - I’ll respond to a question with a question: But you see (or at least saw) scum shooting you over RC, ya? What makes you such a valuable kill shot? Fmpov, you both make sense as logical protective targets for the exact same reason, you both were fairly universal town reads.

3. In general, the tenor of the game was that RC would be turbo lynched D2 because of ducks flip. I could see a world where fear of RC does not lead to his death because he was the likely mislynch.

teacher · Fri Jan 31, 2020 10:27 am

Can you towncase ari for me then?

teacher · Fri Jan 31, 2020 10:49 am

In post 7176, MathBlade wrote:The presumption is the person jailed is scum in a no kill scenario.
If you want to townread then you have to provide a reasonable scenario of events. It’s not up to me to discount a wild theory. It’s up to you to prove yours.

What scum team shoots at RCE? Or Me?

But this is not JUST a JK scenario.

Yesterday, you were so confident you were the NK that you were shot that you were yelling at me that you were in fact conf!town, and calling me scum for saying there were a possibility you WERE NOT saved. Now, youre calling me scum for saying there is a possibility you WERE saved. You quite literally cannot have it both ways.

Scum dont need to shoot RCE. They could shoot you.
Scum dont need to shoot you. They could shoot RCE.
And yes, Scum!RCE could shoot you, and the JK wouldnt matter.

To be clear, I am soft-defending RC -- exactly your words. Soft because Im not confident on his slot, and definitely see the world where he would be the killer. But defending because he is a townread -- indeed, just as universally townread as you at end of D1, to the point that he was a good protective target. You say he was not trying for cohesion, like you. But he certainly was not impeding it, and in fact generated it (to the extent he was a uni-townread).

teacher · Fri Jan 31, 2020 10:56 am

In post 7188, MathBlade wrote:And I am calling you scum for so much more than that Teacher. Misrep. I called you scum day two before that.

Yes, because I was drunk and wouldnt engage with you on RCE. (and during the jailkeeper thing). I didnt say that you STARTED calling me scum then. I said you called me scum for that. And you did.

teacher · Fri Jan 31, 2020 10:56 am

In post 7187, MathBlade wrote:fits with the townreads of Ari the game has had.

Can you please towncase Ari?

teacher · Fri Jan 31, 2020 11:10 am

In post 7187, MathBlade wrote:Town deals in probability. Scum deals with could be.

OK, we are on common ground here.

Let's dial into your favorite traitor theory, and run it against the last 600 mini-normals (Here)
There are 27 games with traitors. Only 3 (11%) are 9-4. In those 3 they were against:

2-shot cop, sk, 3-shot neighborizer, and JK (1862)
Disloyal Informed MAcho Ninja Neighbor N-12 Babysitter, N-1 cop, Macho informed IC, informed N3+ vig, neighbor, neighbor, and neighbor (2058)
Watcher, Disloyal Vig, informed, 3-shot loyal neighborizer, and JOAT (2062)

Regardless of our disagreements over the power of town here, thats WAY more power than this town has. Can we give the 9-4 bit a break?

teacher · Fri Jan 31, 2020 11:19 am

In post 7198, MathBlade wrote:
In post 7197, teacher wrote:
In post 7187, MathBlade wrote:Town deals in probability. Scum deals with could be.
OK, we are on common ground here.

Let's dial into your favorite traitor theory, and run it against the last 600 mini-normals (Here)
There are 27 games with traitors. Only 3 (11%) are 9-4. In those 3 they were against:

2-shot cop, sk, 3-shot neighborizer, and JK (1862)

Disloyal Informed MAcho Ninja Neighbor N-12 Babysitter, N-1 cop, Macho informed IC, informed N3+ vig, neighbor, neighbor, and neighbor (2058)

Watcher, Disloyal Vig, informed, 3-shot loyal neighborizer, and JOAT (2062)
Regardless of our disagreements over the power of town here, thats WAY more power than this town has. Can we give the 9-4 bit a break?
Nope. Ico could be traitor and neighborize for scum says otherwise.

1. You realize scum!Ico lessens the power of town, making 9-4 even more unlikely right?

2. scum!neighborizer does not imply traitor with the strength you are suggesting at all. Using the same data-set, there are 9.5 games with scum neighborizers in them (one has a one-shot, so counting as 1/2). Only 1 has a traitor (11%). And that game is 10-3, against a voyeur+backup, tracker, and 2-shot commuter.

teacher · Fri Jan 31, 2020 11:21 am

In post 7202, RCEnigma wrote:Cool. Teacher where are you at reads wise currently?

Then again for both worlds where I flip town/flip scum.

After that I have something I want to run by you and get your opinion on.

I havent played out your flip, and dont have time to atm. I will respond to that one later tonight, after a drive.

Reads:
Locktown: Ico, Bella
Strong town: skit-Flopz
Lean town: RCE
1 scum, 1 town: Ari-Math
open to pairings including: Shos, xtomx

teacher · Fri Jan 31, 2020 11:22 am

I suppose that list is you town, so will take the time to play out scum!you

teacher · Fri Jan 31, 2020 11:28 am

scum!you is scum!ari imo

teacher · Fri Jan 31, 2020 11:35 am

I put less stock into killing for reads after the D1 we had, and more stock in killing to remove power (RC) or uni-town reads and continue divisiveness. Normally I like sheeping the dead, but think this gameroom was such that reads had less weight. I genuinely expected D2 to be turbo-RC.

teacher · Fri Jan 31, 2020 11:40 am

In post 7209, MathBlade wrote:
In post 7208, teacher wrote:I put less stock into killing for reads after the D1 we had, and more stock in killing to remove power (RC)
or uni-town reads
and continue divisiveness. Normally I like sheeping the dead, but think this gameroom was such that reads had less weight. I genuinely expected D2 to be turbo-RC.
Then you should be voting RCE. Only way a kill fails on RC is if RCE is scum.

You seem to have difficulty reading.

teacher · Fri Jan 31, 2020 12:00 pm

In post 7175, MathBlade wrote:An RC lynch was never happening.

You may be right. I really did expect it based on him requesting the BoP and some players comments sticking with me, but I went back to do the work, and it looks like the board was actually fairly divided on whether town!duck meant lynch RC.

Player	RC position EoD1
Math	lukewarm lynch 2821 2846
RCE	very hard lynch
Ari	very against lynch
Ico	very against lynch 2992
plum	slightly against lynch 2462
Bella	nothing explicit
xtomx	nothing explicit, but animosity known
flopz	no explicit positioning (later open to it 3334)
teacher	public position hard lynch (but also TvT and lynch Ari) 2930
skit	hard lynch 3098
tris	no explicit positioning

Thats actually quite interesting.

teacher · Fri Jan 31, 2020 12:02 pm

In post 7213, shos wrote:2+1 traitor?

But then I return to the motives for scum!Ico to crumb and claim protective D2 after a no-kill. Nope, at least not for him.

In the abstract, sure, scum could have a traitor here in a 10-3 setup. But then we should not be associative hunting. (I dont think neighborizer implies traitor. I think neighborization can be a useful skill for scum, regardless traitor.)

teacher · Fri Jan 31, 2020 12:11 pm

In post 7212, MathBlade wrote:
In post 7210, teacher wrote:
In post 7209, MathBlade wrote:
In post 7208, teacher wrote:I put less stock into killing for reads after the D1 we had, and more stock in killing to remove power (RC)
or uni-town reads
and continue divisiveness. Normally I like sheeping the dead, but think this gameroom was such that reads had less weight. I genuinely expected D2 to be turbo-RC.
Then you should be voting RCE. Only way a kill fails on RC is if RCE is scum.
You seem to have difficulty reading.
You seem to have difficulty explaining why scum kill me or RCE over RC.

Universal townread doesn’t compare. When it matched the evidence it made sense. Now it doesn’t.

You and I agree that there are 3 possibilities for N1:

Scum targeted you
Scum targeted RCE
Scum!RCE targeted someone (including RC).

Our difference lies in assessing the probabilities of each. You think the last one is XX% likely (some number that seems quite high, but I dont want to put words in your mouth).

I cant get it higher than about 40%. Here is why:

RC is a very viable mislynch D2 (even if less likely than I had thought)
RC is also usefully destroying the readability of the thread/cohesion of town.
you and RCE were universal townreads.
if town!you, you were also spot-on scum!ari

We have a disconnect. I see your side of it. You just cant see mine. Im not going to try again.

I get you are, for you. But we differ in that.

teacher · Fri Jan 31, 2020 12:27 pm

Last line was clearly a drafting error.

@Math, in addition to the ari town case, if youd like to convince me, find me an RCE partner that makes good sense that isnt me, since that one isnt selling me. (obviously, I would think Ari, but you dont).

teacher · Fri Jan 31, 2020 1:31 pm

In post 7219, shos wrote:
In post 7217, teacher wrote:You and I agree that there are 3 possibilities for N1:
Scum targeted you
Scum targeted RCE
Scum!RCE targeted someone (including RC).

Our difference lies in assessing the probabilities of each. You think the last one is XX% likely (some number that seems quite high, but I dont want to put words in your mouth).

I cant get it higher than about 40%. Here is why:
RC is a very viable mislynch D2 (even if less likely than I had thought)
RC is also usefully destroying the readability of the thread/cohesion of town.
you and RCE were universal townreads.
if town!you, you were also spot-on scum!ari
OK I read your post and I don't understand this.
1. RCE was a universal townread - ergo, scum would be more than happy to use him to make the kill as odds are he'll get away with it.
2. ....that's it, RC is completely irrelevant

Why would you say that is <40% to happen? there are three scums most likely - one of them has to do the kill. Trisaudade slot would be an option indeed with its multitasking factor, but if RCE is widely townread and Trisaudade isn't (I assume this, considering that we DID lynch that slot yesterday), it is far less dangerous.

So the abstract is 33% for each, ya?

I believe both protective claims, and think they were good targets - meaning I do think either math or rce could reasonably have been targeted if town.

I do not think Town!rc is a significantly better kill target than either of town!them, because he is mislynchable and dividing town.

*****
Trying another way, you question assumes RCE scum. Sure, there’s a decent chance he does the kill if scum (esp if strongman, and more likely than tris who Would be in the investigative pool). But I can’t get to the assumption, and I can’t use the standard jk inference because there’s a third situation where the jk isn’t relevNt.

teacher · Fri Jan 31, 2020 1:33 pm

vla weekend btw, about to drive

teacher · Fri Jan 31, 2020 1:39 pm

In post 7207, RCEnigma wrote:I think the net takeaway though is that math/myself weren't targeted with the goal of pushing a mislynch.

I dunno, given both your positions on RC, it might have allowed more of a push? I think math was the first one to come in with that (certainly one of the early voices, and had said it before I managed to get on due to the delayed day start).

teacher · Sat Feb 01, 2020 4:22 pm

RCE, what do you make of ?Ico?'s point that you now kinda have to be resolved before mylo, speaking of?

teacher · Sat Feb 01, 2020 4:50 pm

In post 7260, MathBlade wrote:1) If you’re town I am back to confirmed town.

NO!!!!! Dont make me point out that Town!RCE could have been saved. Sure, its less likely than Town!you being saved now, while RCE's alignment is in question. But with Town!RCE known, then it becomes 50/50 (you were both good protective targets), and there is no way in hell Im letting you call yourself conftown.

teacher · Sat Feb 01, 2020 8:05 pm

im mostly asleep but rolled over and read the maths from xtomx and shos

youre not wrong but youre not right either the problem loes in the odds youre ssyong 2/9

but theres no way in hell im killed n1 or flopz pr xtom or bella ormplim

these ppl were save candidates for a reason - there was a ++rand chance tp be killed

teacher · Sat Feb 01, 2020 8:08 pm

In post 7274, MathBlade wrote:
In post 7261, teacher wrote:
In post 7260, MathBlade wrote:1) If you’re town I am back to confirmed town.
NO!!!!! Dont make me point out that Town!RCE could have been saved. Sure, its less likely than Town!you being saved
now
, while RCE's alignment is in question. But with Town!RCE known, then it becomes 50/50 (you were both good protective targets), and there is no way in hell Im letting you call yourself conftown.
Uhmmm less likely and 50/50 both these things can’t be true.
50/50 is equal.

And yeah I would be the kill in that case because all RCE did end of day was say “Yeah I would lynch RC tomorrow”

So then conf isn’t right but very very very likely town.

again reading issues its less likely now bc now i have to factor in rce scum without that its appr 50/50 to me

teacher · Sat Feb 01, 2020 8:20 pm

In post 7273, Xtoxm wrote:9.1%

no its the same error it relies on sayinf theres the same chance xtomx was killed as RC or you

there was not like i see 4 sensible N1s total - you (save) rce (save) skit (jk killer) rc (jk killer)

good for you all if you can make reads off of N1, but i camt in the current claim space

teacher · Sat Feb 01, 2020 8:33 pm

because i fair'y heavily heavily townread his play including his reaction to this, and a 50/50 shot isnt going to chanfe that?

im not closed to it because i take icos need to resolve point but mech reading someone off of a situation that i cant get past a statistical deadheat isnt something im going to simply let past without contesting. like if theres actual scumplay, im all ears, but night one simplynisnt going to convince me and im going tomvoice that

now goodnight

teacher · Sun Feb 02, 2020 8:08 am

In post 3160, implosion wrote:
Spoiler: eulogy for a glass trombonist

Vote Count 1.23 (FINAL)
the worst
(7): tris, skitter30, RadiantCowbells, Plum, MathBlade, Flopz, teacher

Aristophanes
(2): Bellaphant, Iconeum

RadiantCowbells
(2): Xtoxm, the worst

Plum
(1): RCEnigma

Not voting (1): Aristophanes

With 13 alive, it takes 7 votes to end the day.
Deadline is set to two weeks from day start, in (expired on 2020-01-16 22:00:00).

VOTE: shos

I have explained. Looking at the D1 associatives, the tw lynch wagon, the people on the shos wagon D2 makes me think this is the best today. I will commit to RCE tomorrow if this flips town.

teacher · Sun Feb 02, 2020 4:50 pm

In post 7338, MathBlade wrote:Pretty much you and teacher both have interacted with RCE posts and just ignored the probable and substituted your own reality.

Kindly fuck all the way off.

I havent ignored the probable. I have very carefully explained, multiple times, why I cant come up with a "probable." Why reading N1 is a coinflip. You may disagree if you want (and I know you do), but dont misrep me.

To be clear, if you thought you were sufficiently likely to be the N1 kill yesterday to claim conf!town, you cant say RCE is conf!scum today because there is still a goodly chance you (or he) was the kill today.

teacher · Sun Feb 02, 2020 4:50 pm

(also, Im around for a bit, and working on a couple posts I thought of during the day).

teacher · Sun Feb 02, 2020 4:54 pm

In post 7328, skitter30 wrote:
In post 7313, teacher wrote:OTE: shos

I have explained. Looking at the D1 associatives, the tw lynch wagon, the people on the shos wagon D2 makes me think this is the best today. I will commit to RCE tomorrow if this flips town.
i'd really much rather math instead

Maths never going to happen today, and to be honest Im opposed to it too (the tonal thing). I dont think scum!math leads the mislynch this hard, nor is so self-righteous.

Id rather Ari, but thats never going to happen today either.

Shos has the highest equity and is a reasonable compromise. Look at the shos wagons. Look at the associatives btw tris and plum d1

teacher · Sun Feb 02, 2020 5:01 pm

In post 7303, MathBlade wrote:
In post 7301, RCEnigma wrote:Math im not meaning to offend with this statement however.

Once I flip I think you need to consider backing down from wanting to be towns voice, and play a supporting role instead. I think this is in the best interest of town.
If you flip town then I have no regrets over it.

It would be necessary because of the jailkeep claim.
I would have zero regrets over it.

I would be sad sure.

Also I am not “the voice”.

I gave my opinion and others agree/disagree.

Everyone disagrees with my traitor theory. Fine. I may take a different road to get there but that doesn’t make me wrong.

Your lynch is needed. And I am pretty sure you’re scum.

You are 100% being the voice and drowning the thread.

Day start was at 6650. Here we are less than 700 posts later (7342 when I started this post), and youve made more than 200 of them. In other words, with 11 players left, one slot (you) has made >20% posts. And its all just repeating the same mantra, not offering new insights.

teacher · Sun Feb 02, 2020 5:08 pm

You agree Math's not on offer I think. So where do you want to go thats not math, and why?

Xtomx, the neighborizer thing is the big thing that has them well over shos. (the secondary thing, thats still there, is the D1 associatives).

teacher · Sun Feb 02, 2020 5:35 pm

Yea, Im diving Math's day rn, and am kinda coming out the same, but will write on it.

teacher · Sun Feb 02, 2020 7:07 pm

OK, I definitely faded at the end of this, but my review of Math's D3 in depth was interesting.

Lets just start with some surface level contradictions:

RC is "literally one person" whom we should not "worship" 6669. No, we should follow RC. 7302
RC was scumreading Skitter at EoD. 6972 6973. No, RC was FoSing RCE. 7292 7304
Strongman IS the response to two protectives. 6697 No, strongman is NOT the response to two protectives. 7012; 7021
3 PRs is normal. 6898 No, 3 PRs is overpowered. 6984
Acknowledges everyone has claimed. 6848 6898. No, “there may also be some PR claims hidden.” 6989; 6994
(never mind that 3 PRs would already be OP -- or wouldnt -- depending on which of the past bullet you believe).
Math’s D1 readslists 586 677. Math D3: “I don’t operate like that [give readslists]. It would be bullshit.” 7175

ITs the last bullet -- readslists -- that I want to focus on. Its because he needs to be able to push basically whomever the hell he wants. So far today he has called the following players scum:

shos 6659; 6666
xtomx 6789; 6803
Ico 6816; 6820; 6864; 6911; 6967; 6987
Skitter 6831 6967 6972 7064 7066
Me (not linking, but clearly)
RCE (same story)
Bella - though primarily as a counterweight to Ico - 6967 7024 7029

That's quite literally EVERYBODY other than Ari and Flopz. Math's need for flexibility is also shown by his bizarre AF 9-4 theory. He mentions this theory in a bajillion posts. But here are the issues:

Its quite obviously never the case with a town of this strength, ever, as I have shown. 7197; 7203
He's pushing the traitor claim AT THE SAME TIME as pushing Bella/Ico, making town even weaker. 6848; 6864; 6874 (bella); 6911 (Ico); 6967; 6987; 7003; 7024; 7071; 7198
He completely ignores that this theory would make tomorrow mylo on a mislynch, by suggesting town would have multiple more mislynches (including his own). 6911 7050 7246

Here's my bottom line. Math's entire reason for pushing RCE is Bella's claim. But Math is saying, repeatedly (see the second bullet in the last list) that the claims cannot both be true. Someone who yells this loud about mechanics without seeing an obvious flaw is not trying to solve. They're trying to see what sticks.

teacher · Sun Feb 02, 2020 7:08 pm

VOTE: Math

teacher · Sun Feb 02, 2020 7:11 pm

I’ll do shos or ari as well. My vote won’t go outside those three.

teacher · Sun Feb 02, 2020 7:31 pm

In post 7352, MathBlade wrote:You need to think through the logical conclusions and how we end up

Just like you did with (a) 9-4, (b) no two protectives, and (c) RCE obvs jailkept killer? Because that’s what you’ve been peddling all day. If that’s a logical world, then I’ve got plenty for you.

The simple fact is that I cannot make scum!Ari killing RCE/you for being unitown read and onto him any bit less likely than Killing RC. RC who was a likely lynch. RC who was destroying thread readability, and RC who was also a potential protective target (tbh, N1 I would have JKed him due to the dual scum-pr potential, and RC could have confirmed with a no result -@bella, why didn’t you pursue this?).

You keep repeating that RC was the obvious kill. I would not have killed him N1 after duck flipped town. Sure, there is reason to do it. But it’s simply not more likely. You saying it is 500 more times isn’t going to change my view.

teacher · Sun Feb 02, 2020 7:33 pm

In post 7359, teacher wrote:tbh, N1 I would have JKed him [RC]to the dual scum-pr potential, and RC could have confirmed with a no result -@bella, why didn’t you pursue this?).

Just wanted the parenthetical question to bella actually called out.

teacher · Mon Feb 03, 2020 1:22 am

In post 7363, Bellaphant wrote:Sorry teacher, can you reword that question? Is it 'why didn't I jk rc' or.. something else I'm not parsing.

Yea that’s it.

teacher · Mon Feb 03, 2020 1:26 am

In post 7365, Iconeum wrote:What exactly is scum!motivation in that accordign to you?

Seeing what sticks/board temp?

He starts on shos, the wagon from yesterday. Moves to xtomx on your push, then shifts to you (you! - who claimed doc and saved him) when xtomx isn’t happening due to the neighborize, etc. it’s just not a natural outlook to push both 9-4 and you scum, so it makes me feel like he’s intentionally shading the locktown.

teacher · Mon Feb 03, 2020 10:40 am

I’d also like the opportunity to give some closing thoughts but won’t be really on for a couple of hours.

teacher · Mon Feb 03, 2020 4:46 pm

I dont like this lynch. Like at all. I think Ive made that plain.

If this flips scum, I'll voluntarily lynch myself. At that point is likely 7:1 and honestly we can afford to lose me and I have bad associatives.

If it flips town, however, Math I will expect you to sit down. You were pushing RCE yesterday and against a scum lynch. That lynch, however, didnt cause you to reevaluate at all -- you are still pushing RCE and the same potential partners. When you are wrong, you have to learn.

One thing you cannot learn -- and do not let Math get away with even thinking to claim otherwise -- is Math's alignment. If RCE!town, then the lack of a N1 does not make Math anything approaching conf!town.

I remain of the belief that Math-Ari contains 1 (and only 1) scum. I also think the board should revisit the broad VCAs I provided in 6953 -- the flopz wagon, the ari wagon, the shos wagon, and the EoD wagons in particular. IF Im alive, I will flesh out my take.

IF RCE!Town, my belief is that the likely teams are (Ari-Shos) or (Math-flopz).

teacher · Mon Feb 03, 2020 4:58 pm

I know you dont by transitive VCA -- its something that has definitely worked for me, but I cant even articulate it that well.

Mostly, its the Ari wagon arond VC 1.14. AT that point, the largest wagon is either a scum motivated wagon (Flopz/Math) or its on scum (Ari). I then combine that with the other large wagons -1.8 (where I see Math) and 1.19 (same) - and think it could be Math. But, on the other hand, the EoD counterwagon is ALL PR!claims, me (known!town to me), and Math. Basically I think this shows one of the two of them have be scum.

I cant really sell it, but I know I buy it and it holds true for me across games fwiw.

teacher · Mon Feb 03, 2020 5:08 pm

thats kind of a left-handed compliment, but Ill take it I guess

teacher · Mon Feb 03, 2020 5:23 pm

Those voting RCE are, to my feel, doing so based on one of two mechanical fallacies:

The Jailkeeper fallacy - namely that after a no-kill, the jailed is more likely killer than killee. The problem is that a good JK protects in the same likely kill pool that scum hunt in. This dramatically increases the odds of their targets coinciding (if, as I posit here, there is in reality a 3.5 person save/kill pool, the odds are quite close). To be clear, the odds still favor a kept killer over a save, even taking reads into account. But the odds are close enough that, when you add in the additional variable of this game -- a doc!save rather than the JK having an effect -- the difference becomes negligible.

The RC Kill fallacy -- RC must have been the N1 target since hes good town who claimed power. I have explained the problems with this, including the expected mislynch D2, the weakness of the PR, and the way RC was drowning the game/separating town.

I'd like, before the hammer falls, to have those voting RCE to explain why/how they reason out of these issues, especially the first. Because Ive seen alot of mech reasoning, but none that purports to take into account the fact that the real target pool/odds are quite different than the abstract one. Maybe Im hoping for too much, but Ico's blind insistance on the first, without confronting it, and xtomx's complete blind vote are bugging me.

Pedit: I knew it wasnt meant that way, was just playing around.

teacher · Mon Feb 03, 2020 6:18 pm

Bold hammer rather than let the questions be answered.

teacher · Mon Feb 03, 2020 6:27 pm

In post 7402, teacher wrote:I'd like, before the hammer falls, to have those voting RCE to explain why/how they reason out of these issues, especially the first.

@Ari - this question.

teacher · Thu Feb 06, 2020 2:59 am

I find flipping math or Ari, with a slight pref to ari tbh. I think scum lynched off wagon because both were on but haven’t done detailed/revised vcs yet.

teacher · Thu Feb 06, 2020 3:00 am

Also, lol at Ico thinking math was defending RCE.

teacher · Thu Feb 06, 2020 4:05 am

Why lynch a functional vt over doc?

Skit, can you speak to Icos scum meta?

I’ve hard hard townread the play this game, but the nk is ????, which of course is also wine.

teacher · Thu Feb 06, 2020 6:26 am

300!

teacher · Thu Feb 06, 2020 6:27 am

Ico who’d you save?

teacher · Thu Feb 06, 2020 10:20 am

In post 7421, Iconeum wrote:math/teacher
math/skitter
ari/skitter
ari/teacher

if it's not one of these I think we already lost

Now that the doctor apparently remembers what happened yesterday (which might have been impt to know last night) you want to revisit this as well?

teacher · Fri Feb 07, 2020 3:50 am

In post 7509, skitter30 wrote:
In post 7501, Iconeum wrote:what if we all just gave our top 2 scumreads, maybe in a popcorn format?
Math >>>>> shos >>> ari

Reverse the triangles for me.

teacher · Sat Feb 08, 2020 8:37 am

That’s still never happening today. The only thing it changes is Ico, ya? Unless you doubt Ico for some reason?

I’m going to have some serious thoughts for the Town among the PoE pool at the end of the game. I purposefully took a step back for a coupla days to see who tried to work out a solve. But.....nope.

VOTE: ari

teacher · Sun Feb 09, 2020 9:09 am

In post 7550, MathBlade wrote:Almost like the main wagon is scum

See that's the kinda crap you cant just say when the wagons are 2-1-1 and there are 4 not voting.

I'll get on tonight after the kiddos go down.

teacher · Mon Feb 10, 2020 3:24 pm

@Shos -- why arent you voting rn?

Same @Ari

I am on, and will be rejoining, in about 1.5 hrs. Grades were due today -- my kiddos again did number 1 in our network of schools, so yay!

teacher · Mon Feb 10, 2020 4:12 pm

Hey, so Im going to be reading through a bit and working on solving solo, but Im down to jam if people want.

@Skit, fwiw, I think Shos's no lynch thing makes sense for someone with a math background. To be clear, I dont think it makes sense in real life, but I can see it from their perspective. Like, pure odds wise, its changes us from:
6/2...nl....3/2 worst case (25% followed by 40% chance)
to
nl....5/2....3/2 (29% followed by 40%)

That said, given that Ico is (sadly) town, its NEVER going to happen nor make sense today.

teacher · Mon Feb 10, 2020 4:14 pm

By the way, Im going to be making my sustained Ari push/case tonight. I really really would rather that be the lynch so it would help if you have anything other than "blah meta" to back it up.

teacher · Mon Feb 10, 2020 4:34 pm

In post 7652, skitter30 wrote:can someone tell me why they are townreading math and/or flopz plz

Math is tonal/gut. Like I believe he believes this crap.

Flopz Im just kinda leaving to the side of my solves. Its part of why I want Ari today. I find Ari-Shos scummier than Math-Flopz on both players, and I think one of those is the the team.

teacher · Mon Feb 10, 2020 4:34 pm

In post 7655, skitter30 wrote:
In post 7653, MathBlade wrote:It comes from the idea that the person jailed is almost always scum.
this is fallacious and ignores the notion that jk's tend to act as docs if more than one scum is alive

YES!!!!!! For the love.

Back this up with hard evidence, and Im down. But "Almost always"? No.

teacher · Mon Feb 10, 2020 4:36 pm

In post 7653, MathBlade wrote:And in the case they weren’t then my day one reads were likely correct.

Also, Skit, this is actually part of why I TR Math. I do think he makes more sense as the N1 than RCE. Both were unitownread, but Math was both more vocal himself, and more vocally townread by others.

teacher · Mon Feb 10, 2020 4:37 pm

In post 7659, skitter30 wrote:random aside i'm kinda fascinated how i went from 'seven thousand word wall-post explaining why you're wrong' to like a two sentence summary that just captures the whole point

Like a change in your playstyle or a change in somethine else? Not sure Im following this one.

teacher · Mon Feb 10, 2020 4:42 pm

Yea, but total lack of presence D3 and D4 is indeed troubling. So are the feelings of the kills, even if some of them were cabined. Im also going to be brining back up the D1 associatives with him and Trisaudade when I get through my general catchup. Basically Im on Ari because I believe it scum AND because I believe it will convict Math if its not. I cant think of any other lynch that will have that kind of combined effect for me.

teacher · Mon Feb 10, 2020 4:43 pm

In post 7668, skitter30 wrote:can you explain what you mean wrt the scum neighborizer?

Not to Garcia, but I think he means that there is still a traitor.

teacher · Mon Feb 10, 2020 4:55 pm

In post 7670, skitter30 wrote:ico/xtoxm/teacher

Sub you for me and Im with you on this towncore.

Tbh, while Im not at all confident about Flopz, Im not scummreading the slot either. Flipping it, moreover, would do just about nada for me.

So we are in the same lynchpool too, but you and I have reverse orders.

Tell me, is it worth trying to sell Ari to you, or should I save the time on digging since Ive kinda headlined my case and it doesnt seem like it moved you much?

teacher · Mon Feb 10, 2020 5:03 pm

Math, if youre town, youre the village idiot spewing about how the claims arent trustworthy but we must lynch RCE because of the claims, so please dont egopost.

teacher · Mon Feb 10, 2020 5:05 pm

In post 7567, shos wrote:1. Decide that we NL today.
2. Discuss who we want to Lynch. After we have agreed, you sound your thoughts about what of they flip scum/town, and then we nolynch.

In post 7513, shos wrote:I think a NL asap is best

Which did/do you want?

teacher · Mon Feb 10, 2020 5:08 pm

Right, I meant more about seeking credit on the SvS or TvT thing, since I was fairly clearly calling it TvT as well and pushing off both them. Its just kinda gross.

The Ari thing from you (and RC, and RCE, and Bella) is why I want them today.

@Skit, I saw you on the associatives. It will happen but this is a hell of a game to slog through.....

teacher · Mon Feb 10, 2020 5:11 pm

In post 7682, skitter30 wrote:i'm not sure tris/plum/ari actually make sense given how the day1 ari wagon went

discuss please?

teacher · Mon Feb 10, 2020 5:19 pm

In post 7494, Iconeum wrote:
In post 7466, teacher wrote:Why lynch a functional vt over doc?

Skit, can you speak to Icos scum meta?

I’ve hard hard townread the play this game, but the nk is ????, which of course is also wine.
Have you considered Bella might have lied about being N-1-2 gated to try and survive? I did. Bella was conftown and unprotecteable by me.
You hard townread me and defended me during massclaim but now all of a sudden you want to shade me?

Going back to this, Bella was not in fact conf town, ya? Indeed, that was a spot I causing me heartburn (in part due to the dueling protective claims -- I was seeing a world where only 1 of you was in fact true, and it would be weak 10 v. 2 group + 1 traitor).

The N1-N2 claim, if town, did not strike me as at all made up because I couldnt see the motivation to claim it first i(remember, it was the claim that started the massclaim, rather than the massclaim outing the claim). But if scum, the N1-N2 seems hella convenient because then the actions cant be chained/tested, and it allowed Scum to push the mislynch of a slot that, before D3, had been fairly hard townread.

But I townread your play, just start of day paranoia because I was so sure you would die.

teacher · Mon Feb 10, 2020 5:22 pm

In post 7684, skitter30 wrote:sorry, i don't really want to look at most of day1/day2 either, take your time

if you just have general things 'how ari was behaving when xyz happened' without like quoting posts that would be good too

Nah I actually want to kinda do it fully myself too, for my own benefit.