White Flag - TM2020

[Auro]

I think Dong/FF is not the scumteam, at least. Dong/Gobbles also isn't one. FF/Gob is possible but there reasons to believe FF is town.

[CheekyTeeky]

Why does scum!BB with scum!gobbles go to the trouble of pocketing me but then try to lynch Dong who I'm not lynching instead of Dann? Why not get the lynch on an otherwise unkillable towny?

[Auro]

Actually Dong/Molla isn't either I think, need to check~
Dong individually has a lot of scum equity but the lack of viable partners majorly makes him town or not worth lynching I think

[Auro]

That's a good question. Although lynching Dann can still make LyLo hell for a Molla/Gob team: they leave me to LyLo and have to hope that Dong/FF don't re-evaluate based on Dann's flip and final words; or they kill me and then you sheep mine and Dann's solve. It's a generally tough position to fight from IF Dong/FF begin to reevaluate.

Lynching Dong would have much higher payoff since the Auro/Dann solve would be pretty juicy to pursue at LyLo.

[Auro]

One reason I wanted you to obtain FF/Dong's assurance that they'd not vote me in LyLo was to observe Gob/Molla's reaction and see if they then hop on to a Dann/Auro lynch.

[CheekyTeeky]

BB seemed to vehemently oppose a Dann lynch. I guess we could BoP BB on Dong?

[CheekyTeeky]

Omg I just realised scum tried to frame me with the Dunn kill.

[Formerfish]

Dannflor
BBMolla
Formerfish
CheekyTeeky
Auro
Dongempire
gobbledygook

To lynch Dann we need 4, CT and I are there already, Dann isn't going to vote there, BB and Auro have stopped fighting the lynch, but won't vote there, and I dont remember what Dong or Gob have said about Dann recently.

[Formerfish]

Omg I just realised scum tried to frame me with the Dunn kill.

How so?

[Auro]

BB seemed to vehemently oppose a Dann lynch. I guess we could BoP BB on Dong?

I don't think he *opposed* it vehemently, seemed like posturing... Wasn't Dann at L-1 before and Gob hadn't voted?

[CheekyTeeky]

Yeah he was at L-1 I didn't even realise Dong Dong unvoted. Why did they unvote?

[Auro]

Cheeky, if you leave both Auro/Dann alive it's likely we're pushed as the LyLo solve and I don't trust town in that set to realize otherwise; meaning the prior of a scum flip becomes more important.

Looking at today's play I don't see Dong flipping scum; versus my high degree of confidence in Gob scum and Dann affirming it after a read through.

*If* Gob flips town, oh well.

[CheekyTeeky]

Dong will you come?

Yes, i was sleeping.
VOTE: dann
Auro isnt voting this. Gobble or bb?

UNVOTE:
The crews all here!

Ugh. I was so convinced we'd lynch Dann today.

[Auro]

UNVOTE:
The crews all here!

What? Did this mean his teammates were pitching in, etc? Dong, explain?

[CheekyTeeky]

Can you give me a case or something on gobbles Auro?

[CheekyTeeky]

I don't think BB is his buddy. And tbh BB is scummier in isolation but I just can't not respect everyone else's townread there.

[Auro]

Okay here's a case.

Ok. I am caught up. I don't think I am actually going to wall anything, I'm just going to give reads.

Town
KittyMo
Auro
Dann
Dunn
Cephrir
Hopkirk
Espeonage
Joan of Arc
DongEmpire
Formerfish
Wgeurts
NSG
Scum

You can view the Joan of Arc line as the official null line because I have no read on that slot and it is odd that others do have a read on that slot when it has two posts with no content.

Principally, the things that I am most suspect about are...

Dunn being able to extrapolate so much from a Joan of Arc vote on me. I feel like he is projecting and has entered the Death Spiral to get me killed.
NSG stating that Wgeurts was one of the three people in her town block and then not moving her vote despite having ample to time to post several more times after that fact.
Dongempire backing off Cephrir seemed like he realized he went down the wrong path trying to get people to scumread Cephrir. I also feel like Hopkirk is reaching with some of his analysis (particular when it comes to me), but he is very funny so I will townread him to keep him around longer.

I want to vote NSG because she is playing into her scum meta that I saw in Alternative 9P. I find it odd that no one else is commenting on that. It seemed like it was common knowledge across the site since other payers in that game also made that observation.

VOTE: Dongempire

Spews Cephrir town. Talks about scum NSG the most but votes Dong.

I don't know, independent of her meta tell for being scum, the fact that she left her vote on wgeurts despite naming him as one of her THREE town reads seems pretty bad coming from the Paragon.

Talks about nsg, keeps vote on Dong.

I feel like I want fish to be town rather than actually town reading him

VOTE: Fish

To be totally honest I would want NSG or Dong because I feel like Fish will at least contribute something in the future

Leaves vote on Fish.

Can we please just kill this

VOTE: NSG

So he switched from FF at this point finally voting NSG after saying:

While we are on the topic of meta, if NSG lurks she is scum. Period.

Weird thing to bring up unprompted in RVS. Which works with the scum-know-nsg-will-lurk-and-be-bussed theory. It took Gobbles over 40 pages to vote nsg after she had been lurking the whole time and after FF's wagon stalled out/Dunn interjected.

Vote Count

northsidegal - 5

(Kittymo, Cephrir, Dunnstral, Formerfish, gobbledygook)

Formerfish - 4

(BBMolla, northsidegal, Dannflor, Espeonage)

gobbledygook - 1

(Hopkirk)

Not Voting - 3

(Auro, CheekyTeeky, Dongempire)

Activity Check - All Good!

Deadline: (expired on 2020-01-17 22:59:30)

To take a page from NSG and RC, kill the non-bussers first

VOTE: Cheeky

I'm pretty sure both gobbles and his buddy were on the nsg wagon. Hi BB. Note how he calls them "non-bussers"

Tl;dr - within the first 6 pages gobbles randomly brings up nsg lurk-scum meta. He has her at the bottom of his first reads list yet votes elsewhere and waits until >30 pages later to finally vote her as the 5th person on the wagon after Dunn attempts to shutdown FF wagon and it stalls. His reads indicated nsg was his top scumread throughout however he did not commit to voting her until a day or so from deadline. SOD2 gobbles starts voting for "nonbussers"

Now gobbles is not making any sense around Espeon continuing thre trend of his words/actions not lining up. I've played two games gobbles was in as town and I feel like he usually makes sense and is one to go with his gut whereas here he's quite lurky and passive, determining reads based on others rather than his own thoughts which again doesn't line up with him thinking his reads are >rand as town.

Gobble you're terrible scum.

I mean lynch me so I can shit on you guy in the dead thread. If i was scum i would just go with an ESp lynch if i knew he was town. I think Dong has a better chance to be scum than esp. if you want to lynch him to test a gob/esp team that’s fine but might as well lynch me first if you all feel more certain about that

And wtf is this? Guess it worked for his buddy so why not.

Yes he could go with an Espe lynch which is exactly why his post RE: Espe AtE was so effing scummy. It was a positioning post hence his premises = scumread but his conclusion = townread.

I can devote some time to build a more comprehensive case on Gobbles after a few hours (I've been posting from office and I have a deadline on Monday), but I think you know my reasons on a high level anyway.

[Auro]

I don't think BB is his buddy. And tbh BB is scummier in isolation but I just can't not respect everyone else's townread there.

Well I don't townread him at all. Dann was, but after re-evaluating I don't think he did either. Less scummy compared to other slots but still not a townread I think.

[Auro]

Can you show me what discounts a Molla-Gobbles team? They are pursuing a common agenda overall, have taken mildly different stances on things like Dann lynch; Molla gave some reasons Gob could be scum but has been defending him when Gob's actually in danger. The constant appeals to create graphs would've been scummy if there was no daytalk, but the presence of daytalk makes me wonder why Molla would ask in game thread instead of the PT.

[CheekyTeeky]

Sigh. I'm legit scared we're game throwing if gobbles flips town.

[Formerfish]

Sigh. I'm legit scared we're game throwing if gobbles flips town.

Why are you being selective of the trs your trs have that youre willing to sheep?

[Auro]

I'm afraid it's the same if Dong flips town, don't you think?

[Donempire]

Scouts honor I will not place a vote down on anyone in lylo without talking to everyone that day.

Dong can you please do this too?

Ok

[Formerfish]

Dong, will you vote Dann?

[CheekyTeeky]

Sigh. I'm legit scared we're game throwing if gobbles flips town.

Why are you being selective of the trs your trs have that youre willing to sheep?

I'm taking the people being lynched mainly Hops. Why? Who else should I be sheeping?