TM 2021 Large Normal 2: Wikipedia Integer Facts (Over)

[innocentvillager]

@A50 did you think Dunnstral was the vig? i wonder if scum was expecting to have a shot at hitting vig or if they killed Dunn more for his reads

[Xtoxm]

hey bell i have a story for you
a couple years ago i was in a game called no deadlines and mastina replaced in
she immediately had a scum read on me and pushed me quite hard
she seemed to be twisting facts and misrepresenting my play to extreme degrees
i was convinced she was scum and we got into a massive 1v1 over it
i corralled everyone who townread me to eliminate her and we yeeted a strong town power role on day 2
i didnt end up getting eliminated but i was widely distrusted and discredited for the rest of the game when my other reads were largely on point
i see you going through the same process i went through

p-ed
at this stage of the game and with the amount of information available, i guarantee that scum are primarily tpr hunting with nightkills

[Cephrir]

probably scum in Hopkirk/xtoxm/mastina bc innocentvillager isn’t scum

i'll be more interested on the first point if you can find an issue to take with how they interacted around the wagon/their votes specifically

but that was my "first point" lol, the people who jumped onto LLD after hercule got flashwagoned is a little suspicious, which implicates {Hopkirk/xtoxm/mastina/innocentvillager}

you don't think out of hercule's 3 buddies, at least one of them would help try to chainsaw LLD?

idk, Titus is gone so I offered a bit of my own 1st time VCA

it is true that it's probably prudent to go reread the actual posts

it is literally impossible to convince me of anything just by staring at votecounts until a conclusion comes out. I simply don't believe that scum necessarily vote in any particular way in relation to each other, the entire idea is sheer wifom. If their posts look like a chainsaw to you, or maybe their votes don't match up with their stances or something, that's more interesting to me.

[Cephrir]

Right now I believe the following players are Town:

IV
Mastina
Ceph
Poka
A50
AGar

Town:

Mastina, IV, Agar, A50, Poka, Dunnstral, Xtoxm, Ceph

PoE:

Bell, Titus, Ythan, Hopkirk, Winter Flakes, jjh

idk, i still think it's very unlikely that Luca literally puts his 3 buddies in the PoE, his posting style was stilted enough that it doesn't seem like he would do some crazy wifom move

isn't the idea that he wouldn't just as wifom?

i don't personally think that scum sit down when making a scumlist like this and go "okay, where should i strategically place my buddies." i think they slot them in wherever they honestly think makes the most sense. plus, luca's eod posts show he is no stranger to intentional wifom.

[innocentvillager]

here are some of dunn's most recent reads? i don't think he was particularly against or for anyone, so yeah probably was not killed for his stellar reads?

agree with Xtoxm that priority was a 1) TPR read and it's just a bonus that his a) reads weren't terrible b) was pretty townread

can we all be friends and rate my towncore

me, dunn, agar, ceph, iv, xtoxm, ythan

add a couple more names collectively and then i really dont care who we kill as long as we just start chaining down the list

Sure, I'm fine with this.

Dunn do you have any other thoughts?

I don't... really want to kill ythan or a50 right now, but I don't know where scum is.

Unrelated I feel like I need to, like, recalibrate, refocus, figure out where I'm going.

I think voting for jjh would still be ~okay~

So despite my post at the start of the day, I can see reasons for a lot of people being town

[Cephrir]

p-ed
at this stage of the game and with the amount of information available, i guarantee that scum are primarily tpr hunting with nightkills

i feel like both scum kills have been very widely townread and also happened to be PRs so it's sort of impossible to disentangle this

[innocentvillager]

probably scum in Hopkirk/xtoxm/mastina bc innocentvillager isn’t scum

i'll be more interested on the first point if you can find an issue to take with how they interacted around the wagon/their votes specifically

but that was my "first point" lol, the people who jumped onto LLD after hercule got flashwagoned is a little suspicious, which implicates {Hopkirk/xtoxm/mastina/innocentvillager}

you don't think out of hercule's 3 buddies, at least one of them would help try to chainsaw LLD?

idk, Titus is gone so I offered a bit of my own 1st time VCA

it is true that it's probably prudent to go reread the actual posts

it is literally impossible to convince me of anything just by staring at votecounts until a conclusion comes out. I simply don't believe that scum necessarily vote in any particular way in relation to each other, the entire idea is sheer wifom. If their posts look like a chainsaw to you, or maybe their votes don't match up with their stances or something, that's more interesting to me.

i mean, i think i agree to a point

i think in the obvious surface-level ways, scum might wifom

but like, with that logic you could dismiss a lot of things off as wifom? i guess, my thought process here is, im trying to look for the most reasonably probable conclusion based on what's going on. if I think scum's direct goal to wincon involves doing X (in this case, chainsawing LLD to relieve pressure on hercule), i think scum are simply more likely to do X

like just asking "what do scum want to do here (when scum!hercule gets run up)?" then going: "okay scum want to relieve pressure there. how?" then going: "let's actively try and get a chainsaw going (the more straightforward scenario)" or "hmm, townies are already going after LLD, we'd do better to just wait and stay off the wagons for VCA purposes (the wifom scenario)"

i think there's a good chance that this is what the team was thinking at the time. GTH the latter isn't as likely because scum have incentive to run up LLD as big as possible and there's not a huge cost to placing down a flashwagon vote (we saw how quickly the flashwagons came and went in the first game)

if we can establish that that's what the scumteam wants to do then that's scum!indicative for whoever's doing that. It's definitely not a case, but it's a factor

i will admit that "one scum in {x/y/z}" based on this is probably not as close to like 90%+ likelihood as I thought but it's still something i think is relevant from a probability perspective. And I know you're more interested in the "which posts look like a chainsaw" and I totally agree that is useful if we could differentiate? but i also feel like that is kind of difficult? im not really sure how a vote that's intended to add chainsaw pressure is that different from a vote from suspicion or just "wanting something to happen"

[OkaPoka]

rule of three is a definitely a thing but more of a newbscum thing iirc

[innocentvillager]

isn't the idea that he wouldn't just as wifom?

i don't personally think that scum sit down when making a scumlist like this and go "okay, where should i strategically place my buddies." i think they slot them in wherever they honestly think makes the most sense. plus, luca's eod posts show he is no stranger to intentional wifom.

adding onto the wifom discussion, i think, in a 15p game, you would see that your readslist has all of your buddies in a *kind of consensus* PoE and be like "wait, if all my buddies are in here i can't think of more excuses to vote townies", and that would give you pause, you'd try to fake a townlean on at least one of your buddies

which is partly why I think his excuse to move off of jjh is +scum for jjh given Luca was scum

i agree with the EoD thing that he can wifom but I think EoD lolselfhammer posting is very different from his readslists at the stage I quoted them at, when he was in the PoE but not really an immediate wagon candidate

[innocentvillager]

as i typed this I realized I'm not going to convince you (Ceph) of anything, especially because you've convinced me there's more wifom here than im considering, but also that what im arguing for isn't even that statistically unlikely in a world where my reads are totally random anyway

[OkaPoka]

the argument for rule of three is not probabilistic btw ~or it kinda is but not really

its the idea that a scum bro is going to be self-conscious about his reads and try and balance the distributions and as a result actually gives us more info by trying to limit info you know

[innocentvillager]

what is the rule of three that you're referring to?

[OkaPoka]

the idea that when scum lists a group of three (probably can scale to 4 or 5) there is usually exactly one scum in that pool

[OkaPoka]

general application is scum aims to have their pools be as close to distribution as possible, like if you could split their pools into tiers of groups they probably have a scum in each tier so its 'random'

[innocentvillager]

interesting, thanks.

Right now I believe the following players are Town:

IV
Mastina
Ceph
Poka
A50
AGar

Town:

Mastina, IV, Agar, A50, Poka, Dunnstral, Xtoxm, Ceph

PoE:

Bell, Titus, Ythan, Hopkirk, Winter Flakes, jjh

idk, i still think it's very unlikely that Luca literally puts his 3 buddies in the PoE, his posting style was stilted enough that it doesn't seem like he would do some crazy wifom move

so like how about 6 or 8? is Luca so fucking ballsy that he would pull all his consensus PoE-potential buddies in the PoE?

[OkaPoka]

if luca is willing to self hammer he's probably willing to do a lot of high variance things

in other words. maybe?

[OkaPoka]

anyways im still quite busy and probably will be for the rest of the game unless we want to drag it out a month

xd

[jjh927]

i was targeted by an announcing role that i think is more likely to be scum aligned (especially assuming town!A50 +provides weak Bayesian evidence for town!A50 on a couple of levels)

Do you think it's scum aligned because it's another announcing role or do you think it's scum aligned because of the role itself

[Cephrir]

if herculuca had an evil plan involving blatantly forcing a townread on a scumbuddy, it's clearly mastina

i think at some point when you're giving a poe you have to go with what's actually reasonable. which of the town players in 3832 is seriously suspected by anyone? just agar? i feel like it's possible he was hoping for later days to improve the team's spot or add more poe options.

[innocentvillager]

maybe, it's true that the decision to self hammer could've been inspired as some sort of yolo-high variance play (although that's not the thing I would've expected/more just feels like a "eh it's not worth fighting the elim and im V/LA anyway" thing? but if it is then im just falling into his hands wifoming myself over it )

that's just not the vibe I got at all from his rest of game posting, it felt kind of stilted and mechanical at times which gave me the impression that he isn't really a "high variance" yolo scum player. but that's just based on my arbitrary feels so who knows

[OkaPoka]

i think that if ur going to be lurky ur not going to self hammer you know

self hammering is for rageposters

so i think it was a high variance play, the benefit that math suggested was it taints the info of the entire day, which i mean, i guess

[Almost50]

@A50 did you think Dunnstral was the vig? i wonder if scum was expecting to have a shot at hitting vig or if they killed Dunn more for his reads

Nope. I was WIFOMing when I said I thought I knew who the Vig was.

[jjh927]

It's completely thrown me off, for one

[jjh927]

I was ready to make a bunch of posts and saw the thread locked
I should probably go back to the things I was going to talk about, actually

[OkaPoka]

math of course says as a result we should use yesterday as the basis for everything because scum wanted to taint it

i dont even know how we would 'do' that