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VP Baltar
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Post Post #2650  (ISO)  » Tue May 04, 2021 3:44 pm

I am very confident Luca is town. I am town. I think it is unlikely Norwee is scum.

IMO, the lim order is probably Gypyx, one of gerain/Alice, remainder or Norwee.

I can't even imagine a way we lose this game, but I've seen cocky town do it I guess
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Gypyx
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Post Post #2651  (ISO)  » Tue May 04, 2021 4:00 pm

i honestly have no idea why Luca is town so could someone give bullet points on em'?
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NorwegianboyEE
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Post Post #2652  (ISO)  » Tue May 04, 2021 4:58 pm

Tbh, if i was cop then the last person i’d check is Anya. That’s the main thing i find sus about Alice.
I do believe Anya is spewed town though. As either Alice is scum fake claiming a true result or Alice is cop with an actual real result. Either way Anya town, the only issue is if Alice’s claim is trustworthy.
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VP Baltar
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Post Post #2653  (ISO)  » Tue May 04, 2021 5:27 pm

In post 2651, Gypyx wrote:i honestly have no idea why Luca is town so could someone give bullet points on em'?

Luca and I were doing almost all the heavy lifting yesterday. (Others helped too, just talking primaries from my perspective).

He pushed in a lot of novel and needed directions. I don't see scum doing that. If you think he could be scum, I think the onus is on you to make that case.
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VP Baltar
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Post Post #2654  (ISO)  » Tue May 04, 2021 9:08 pm

VOTE: gypyx
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NorwegianboyEE
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Post Post #2655  (ISO)  » Tue May 04, 2021 11:58 pm

We get at least 3 chances to hit final scum so i'm not too concerned regardless, but i feel like an Geraint elimination would be better than Gypyx today.
What is you felt was townie from Geraint these latest pages Baltar?
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VP Baltar
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Post Post #2656  (ISO)  » Wed May 05, 2021 12:07 am

In post 2655, NorwegianboyEE wrote:What is you felt was townie from Geraint these latest pages Baltar?

I mean, is scum really going to go that hard against bussing at every turn when things are going that badly?
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VP Baltar
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Post Post #2657  (ISO)  » Wed May 05, 2021 12:16 am

In post 2656, VP Baltar wrote:
In post 2655, NorwegianboyEE wrote:What is you felt was townie from Geraint these latest pages Baltar?

I mean, is scum really going to go that hard against bussing at every turn when things are going that badly?

And that's not the latest pages, but rather the scope of the game.
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Post Post #2658  (ISO)  » Wed May 05, 2021 2:11 am

In post 2652, NorwegianboyEE wrote:Tbh, if i was cop then the last person i’d check is Anya. That’s the main thing i find sus about Alice.
I do believe Anya is spewed town though. As either Alice is scum fake claiming a true result or Alice is cop with an actual real result. Either way Anya town, the only issue is if Alice’s claim is trustworthy.


I play simple. Either I try to find Town in SRd players or find scum in TRd players. If I knew iv will be killed I would probably check you.

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Post Post #2659  (ISO)  » Wed May 05, 2021 2:28 am

why didn't you check me?
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AliceK
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Post Post #2660  (ISO)  » Wed May 05, 2021 3:16 am

In post 2659, Gypyx wrote:why didn't you check me?


You could be shot by Vig. The main reason.

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Post Post #2661  (ISO)  » Wed May 05, 2021 3:18 am

that's fair
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Gypyx
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Post Post #2662  (ISO)  » Wed May 05, 2021 3:18 am

i hoped for the sweet release of death ngl
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geraintm
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Post Post #2663  (ISO)  » Wed May 05, 2021 3:44 am

not mafia?

Anya
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Post Post #2664  (ISO)  » Wed May 05, 2021 6:06 am

In post 2662, Gypyx wrote:i hoped for the sweet release of death ngl

sure you did

VOTE: Gypyx

geraintm
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Post Post #2665  (ISO)  » Wed May 05, 2021 6:10 am

GOing to look at the Gypyx/Norway/Luca/VP Baltar votes on past wagons and see if anything makes sense

Day 1
I am 95% sure this is going to go anywhere because of their VT claim.

Gypyx was on Innocent Villager for a long time
switched to George Bailey 3rd (V1.10)
never left

Day 2 - always on Innocent Villager

if they were bussing George Bailey day one, they were playing the long long game...

Norway

Moved to VP Baltar by V1.05
V1.06 - onto George Bailey
V1.07 - iconeum
v1.10 back to George

v1.13 - move to Anya
v1.14 back to george and stayed until hammer

Day 2, started off on Gypyx
then not voting
then hammered Iconeum

Hmmm...there is an awful lot going on in there. Has been on both eliminations of the 2 scum players. V1.13, the switch to Anya gives me pause (was it an attempt to derail the george wagon?)

Luca

starts off day 1 on Innocent Villager, then Alice K by V1.05
hits George Bailey in V1.06
moves to Anya for V1.11
back to GEorge V1.16 and is there for the elimination

DAy 2

On Iconeum by first vote count, but moved to Innocent Villager when the hammer went down

THis is looking the most suspicious of the voting patterns so far to me. it is the stepping away from GEorge Day 1 that looks worse
but so far all 3 were on the GEorge wagon

VP Baltar

was on Luca by V1.04
moves to Iconuem on 1.08.

to gypyx by V1.10

anya on V1.12 and stays there until hammer

Day 2

Starts off on Iconeum
then Gypyx
then back to Iconeum for the hammer


Assuming scum is in this group - man they all want to vote for their partners and they have all at least once been there for the elimination of one of them.

My thoughts:

VP Baltar - they were not on GEorge Day 1, if they are scum and get to Day 2 and their plan is to bus their partner from the start, knowing they are already 1 member of the team down - then that to me feels ballsy.

Gypyx

if they didn't have their claim, i would be looking a this a little side eyed. but not too much. i believe they were the longing serving member of the George Bailey wagon.

Both Norway and Luca look suspicious to me.

very similar voting patterns of on GEorge for a long time, then both move to Anya before going back for the hammer
Day 2 - Norway hammered scum Iconeum. Luca started on Iconeum but had moved off by the end.

Weight of my thinking....i cannot really separate either of them, it is acoin flip for me between Norway and Luca.

Is my thinking clean enough for people?
Anyone want to clarify anything i've said?

geraintm
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Post Post #2666  (ISO)  » Wed May 05, 2021 6:11 am

can people hold off on too many more votes please until Not_mafia actually joins us today....

AliceK
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Post Post #2667  (ISO)  » Wed May 05, 2021 6:37 am

Maybe I am wrong cause I've never rolled scum, but shouldn't scums actually try to avoid both eliminations? They should be aware that losing 2 members Day 1 and Day 2 is extremely bad for them.
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Town have a lot PR's could be that N_M is actually scum and Mafia get a powerful Mafia Vig?

geraintm
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Post Post #2668  (ISO)  » Wed May 05, 2021 6:48 am

@ alice - yep, i think they would try and avoid eliminating both their partners, why i was looking for people who tried to jump off the wagons

NorwegianboyEE
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Post Post #2669  (ISO)  » Wed May 05, 2021 7:24 am

Geraint, i can’t take you aeriously when you actually suggest me and Luca are scum here.
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geraintm
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Post Post #2670  (ISO)  » Wed May 05, 2021 7:40 am

In post 2669, NorwegianboyEE wrote:Geraint, i can’t take you aeriously when you actually suggest me and Luca are scum here.

i wouldn't either, this game i have been so bad.
but have to say what i am thinking.
i should probably just be voting with Anya the whole day. i said my plan was to latch onto the towniest townie i could find.

still waiting on our missing member though...

VP Baltar
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Post Post #2671  (ISO)  » Wed May 05, 2021 7:44 am

In post 2665, geraintm wrote:Is my thinking clean enough for people?
Anyone want to clarify anything i've said?

Your VC analysis is devoid of context. You have to look at more than simply where a vote is. You have to look at how sincerely someone is pushing a yeet, are they genuinely burying to convince others to join, etc.

Also, the moderator disappeared from this game for whatever reason, so IDK if the frequency of vote counts is even all that useful at this point.

Luca and Norway should really not be your priority yeets from my perspective.
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VP Baltar
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Post Post #2672  (ISO)  » Wed May 05, 2021 7:46 am

In post 2658, AliceK wrote:
In post 2652, NorwegianboyEE wrote:Tbh, if i was cop then the last person i’d check is Anya. That’s the main thing i find sus about Alice.
I do believe Anya is spewed town though. As either Alice is scum fake claiming a true result or Alice is cop with an actual real result. Either way Anya town, the only issue is if Alice’s claim is trustworthy.


I play simple. Either I try to find Town in SRd players or find scum in TRd players. If I knew iv will be killed I would probably check you.


Hi, can you answer my question whether you crumbed or not?
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Post Post #2673  (ISO)  » Wed May 05, 2021 9:08 am

Geraint has been really weird around both flipped scum players:

geraint fos'd George, then when some people voted george geraint vowed never to join the wagon because the wagon was apparently bad, even though he had no problem voting Icon despite complaining about the previous votes on him

It feels as though geraint wasn't being sincere with these stances and was instead trying to balance distancing with keeping his partners safe. I guess putting Icon to E-2 D1 was a risky move as scum, but he did so while highlighting how bad the wagon was, so it was basically a defence in a weird way.

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Post Post #2674  (ISO)  » Wed May 05, 2021 9:13 am

On D2 geraint barely mentioned Icon other than to say Icon was in his town pile, and that we should be focusing on IV, Norwee and myself

btw geraint why did you TR Icon on D2?

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