Mini Normal 2223 | Town Wins!

[Not_Mafia]

meh, I'm a VT, not a fan of dwlee's reaction

[Dwlee99]

Dwlee wanna just skip over N_M and claim now? Then Math and I can go?

No

[ManateeDude]

NM just did it its your turn

also headache is alleviated

[Dwlee99]

No he didn't. He claimed not VT. That's not a claim

[Dwlee99]

Oh wait I literally can't read. I thought that said not a VT.

I'm VT.

[ManateeDude]

cool

[MathBlade]

Spoiler: long post

How is it bad to have my top townreads as you Kyo and omo? I didn't include the conftown there for brevity's sake

You identified the problem now.

I don’t know if I buy the excuse now but that’s sus as fuck.

It's weird to say it was for brevity's sake, imo you exclude them because it is implied they are part of the townblock as conftown. I dont see this as a reason to SR Dwlee though.

I'm no longer doubting Math, now when considering Marci's DGB vote. I also think scum!Marci is TMIing her partners in RVS if it's {DGB, Marci, Salsabil}.

Titus was also suspicious of Dwlee/omo as a unit I feel like, though she did associate omo and Math, with omo being more likely. I think it's clear her Babysit was meant to be insurance to kill a scumread in the event of her death. I think scum!Math and scum!Dwlee might have been more careful in case Titus targeted one of them. I don't think the scumteam felt they were at risk of being targeted.

That really leaves 2 of Marci, Salsabil, N_M

I think Titus was a forced kill last night.

N1 they weren’t sure of what Titus and I were trying to communicate so they didn’t know who she would likely protect. So they shot Roden who was massively townread and probably just a townreads kill.

N2 Titus becomes a forced kill and with their vote on Owo not picking up traction it’s a safe kill.

I don’t think NKA gets us far unfortunately. I think it’s going to be a purely day play thing.

What do you mean by forced kill? Why were scum forced into it?

Okay maybe there's credibility to the Salsa/Marci solve if Salsa is going to say we are both suspicious and then vote me.

Yeah probably lmao. That's definitely sus. I've also never seen town!Salsabil give up the way she did D1 when she self-voted. She usually shows more effort, and she tends to ping me early when she's town.

And you gain a Townie dead? Until I conclusively find your partner that sort of question is kinda silly. If it’s you and Dwlee you gain a day to give them some breathing room. You and Salsa means that Salsa isn’t forced to give more content.

The what you gain is dependent on your partner.

ssbm_kyouko considered me part of their townblock thing

what do i gain from making a scummy hammer, and ruining my chances at that townblock..?
if i was scum surely i would want to milk the townblock for all it worth, hmm?

sacrificing how towny i seem, just to get a townie miselimed and then be sused right after is not a move i would make

Maybe you didnt know it was a hammer and wanted to get on with the wagon I was leading for appearances. Or it's just WIFOM.

argh, this feels like scm trying to direct a vote. We are too close to losing and too many people making bets on tomorrow if someone doesn't flip scum today.

I still want to look at Math from Day 1

but then ssbm_Kyouko + marcistar on both wagons.

not mafia just dodging the game.

known town roles are

me - informed child
titus - babysitter
manatee - friendly neighbour

that is it so far right?

Yes, speaking of roles, Dwlee beat me to it:

We should probably mass claim today BTW

We should mass claim, from the bottom up, since we're probably 1 ME away from MELO.
Salsa/Marci/N_M
Dwlee
Me/MathBlade

I think the exact order doesnt matter as long as we follow these tiers. Manatee/geraintm, would either of you reorder these tiers?

Regarding Dwlee by asking specific questions you can see what their thought process is. I don’t buy their explanation because they included the dead. If you’re excluding the conf town for expediency surely you don’t include the dead for expediency. So if Dwlee is town then they’re being careless and not watching for finer points and if they’re scum they aren’t thinking in terms of town blocks. Either way it gives me something. If Dwlee later starts becoming hyper careful that’s in contrast to the carelessness earlier.

Regarding the forced kill this is something you hinted at early. Titus literally was a ticking time bomb because she is town. I believe (redacted) about claims because of my experience on MS so answering this further means I run the risk of scum doing (redacted thing) so I would rather wait to finish answering this in completeness until my turn to claim. There’s a potential for a scum claim possibly so I would rather wait.

So I am a bland ice cream glubber.

With claims out except Kyo’s who I can tell is hella experienced so even if she is scum she’s gonna claim VT. MS has a general rule about not confirming equal to or more than the likely scum team size so likely scum team size is three so no way for invest/masons here.
No way for protective otherwise mass claim breaks the game.

I didn’t want to answer your question in case scum did something stupid like claim PR.

Pretty much I would balance what’s out here just with goons honestly. Town gets in trouble the moment something claims usually with these PRs. With that in mind, then scum have to kill Titus for sheer numbers.

Assume instead they just killed a random Townie not Titus. Then we are at 9 not 8. Best case for scum miselim down to 7. Titus doesn’t protect G or Manatee lady. So the odds of her vig babysitting scum get high. Maybe they knew G IC maybe they didn’t but even without G being conf you run into her being a forced kill that night.

[Dwlee99]

I think scum killed Titus because it was obvious she was going to target me or omo that night.

[MathBlade]

Okay then expand that theory. What does that mean? Talk it out.

[Dwlee99]

Okay then expand that theory. What does that mean? Talk it out.

Titus scumread me and omo. Omo is town. I'm town. Scum now need one less mislim to win.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

As for reads, the order I asked for claims in sums it up for me. I'm TRing Mathblade, mostly for the DGB vote, but also trusting Titus on this a bit. My biggest SRs are Salsabil and I was kinda letting Marci slide by for her place on the DGB wagon D1, before I realized the context of her vote. I thought because we had so many of the same people moving around to multiple wagons on D1 that it would be a good game to try some VCA in but I think it blinded me to Marci.

That hammer was scummy, but I feel like, with 2 miselims left, and having 4 plausible scum, it would be ideal to hit scum today and not be banking on tomorrow. This is the order, with scumreads at the top, then not_mafia is kinda policy, kinda lurk-scummy. I'll get to that. Then Dwlee still has the same points against him from end of D1, and I keep thinking he could possibly be partners with MathBlade, and that's my nightmare scumteam right now because I don't think I'd catch them unless we flip scum!dwlee toDay. And I'm much more confident in Salsa and would rather lim her toDay.

Salsabil - she generally puts in more effort as town I feel like. This game feels subdued, like she's not having meaningful attempts to sort, not as aggressive as usual. Giving up and self-voting while DGB was being wagonee looks very bad as well. I'm most confident in Salsa being scum.
Marci - I had been TRing her because she was one of the wagons from D1 that lead up to DGB, and she was on DGBs wagon at the end of the day. But I think she slipped by because I didn't examine the reason her vote was on DGB. MathBlade's point that the wagon flashed so fast she couldn't get off of it does make sense. We've also seen everyone else but Math and I, and I know I'm town and think Math is too, so I dont think there was an intentional bus. But Marci could still be scum that was stuck on DGB's wagon.
--
Not_Mafia - I see now he's claimed VT but I think "doctor's orders" and "I'm wounded" are obvious doctor softs and considering there are 2 softs in such a small iso I can see scum!Not_Mafia trying to fend off lurker scumreads by softing PR. I think he should have been shot if he was town, and that a town doctor doesnt make sense with a Babysitter, but maybe a mafia Jailkeeper could pretend to be a doctor.

Besides the softs though, he hasn't voted really in this game which makes him a liability in MELO. Self-voted all of D1 and wasn't around to vote on D2.

I did like the comment he made on not liking how quickly saudade lost his hate boner that came up during my iso read of someone else. I didnt think much of it when I first read it but it took deeper reading for me to figure what it meant so I feel like it's indicative of a real thought process that might be hard to fake as scum. It's not enough for me to write him off though, I still find the doctor softs suspicious.
--
Dwlee - I feel like he makes sense with Mathblade or N_M given his stance on Marci and Salsabil, though if he is scum with Marci he is somewhat forced to bus her at this point. I didn't like his position on the D1 wagons and I do think he sheeps too much, but I'm not sure if I'm seeing anything inherently scummy here besides being wrong about DGB. I'm having a hard time recalling anything distinct about him though. I do remember he faked mason at the start of the game and seemed to be buddying me when he voted Roden. And he made omo look scummy with him since the two of them were on other wagons but not DGBs, and then he wouldn't hammer DGB, and omo did instead. He was happy enough to sheep me on Roden at the start of the game, happy to sheep Saudade, but wouldn't hammer DGB. So maybe after writing this I'm thinking he's more suspicious than before.

Pedit: yes I am a VT and seeing as nobody claimed vigilante or another PR, I dont see scum having a need for a doctor or JK (N_M).

Tbh I was expecting someone to claim something weakly swingy like a 1-shot or non-consecutive vig or something which could explain scum!N_M having a protective role and softing doctor.

[Not_Mafia]

Not_Mafia - I see now he's claimed VT but I think "doctor's orders" and "I'm wounded" are obvious doctor softs and considering there are 2 softs in such a small iso I can see scum!Not_Mafia trying to fend off lurker scumreads by softing PR. I think he should have been shot if he was town, and that a town doctor doesnt make sense with a Babysitter, but maybe a mafia Jailkeeper could pretend to be a doctor.

I am wounded is a Frasier reference

[MathBlade]

I wasn’t Kyo and if someone had I would have voted them probably almost instantly barring a really good claim. Because this is a normal and not a theme game these tend to be lower powered affairs. All other PRs claimed/flipped are confirmed town.

So if something like say a 1 shot vig existed it would end up having a huge protown swing given scum vigs can’t exist in normals (I think that change was made).

I really think Marci or NM should be the elim today.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Well I expected it only because I suspected from N_M's 2 obvious softs that he was planning to fakeclaim doctor or something as a scum protective. But scum protective only makes sense if town has killing power.

It feels wrong to assume 3 goons, is that very common? I would think generally that scum gets at least 1 PR to start and town gets power to balance them out.

I feel like Marci can be ditzy though and its entirely possible that town!Marci didnt know she was hammering. So I'd feel better about salsbila first, because if we go Marci first and she's town, we could easily lose to dwlee/N_M + MathBlade, or dwlee/N_M.

What makes you say Marci over Salsabil today?

[Dwlee99]

I want to mudder (sic) the cow.

[MathBlade]

Not Mafia is a known troll. Look at his signature. Trying to predict him is like trying to predict a fair d20. You might be right 5% of the time but best to force him to play.

3 goons + weak TPR is balanced. Mountainous is very hard on town. (Much as mountainous is one of my favorite setups)
An extremely good (imho) way to balance a setup is start from light PR then counter balance each side.
They added friendly neighbor / innocent child as those PRs.
Then okay town needs a protective to help with PRs…hmmm doctor? No then you have elo problems…then likely swapped it to babysitter to ensure mass claim can’t protect innos.

Then scum don’t have much in the way to hunt and so no PRs needed.

I agree it’s possible Marci was ditzy but not probable. I would rather know if she was ditzy or not going into elo versus take a risk on Salsa or Dwlee. By your argument we could also elim Salsa first then we could easily lose to a different subset.

[MathBlade]

I want to mudder (sic) the cow.

If that means vote out NM, why not join my spicy Not Mafia wagon?

[Dwlee99]

I don't know where the vote count is at.

[MathBlade]

Can you like make an unofficial one? That response is pretty bad.

[Dwlee99]

I do not particularly want to make an unofficial one.

[T3]

I will be vla for 6 days. During this time ArcAngel9 may have to step in and do moderation duties in my place.

Turns out I'll have internet. Ignore this.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Not Mafia is a known troll. Look at his signature. Trying to predict him is like trying to predict a fair d20. You might be right 5% of the time but best to force him to play.

3 goons + weak TPR is balanced. Mountainous is very hard on town. (Much as mountainous is one of my favorite setups)
An extremely good (imho) way to balance a setup is start from light PR then counter balance each side.
They added friendly neighbor / innocent child as those PRs.
Then okay town needs a protective to help with PRs…hmmm doctor? No then you have elo problems…then likely swapped it to babysitter to ensure mass claim can’t protect innos.

Then scum don’t have much in the way to hunt and so no PRs needed.

I agree it’s possible Marci was ditzy but not probable. I would rather know if she was ditzy or not going into elo versus take a risk on Salsa or Dwlee. By your argument we could also elim Salsa first then we could easily lose to a different subset.

Yeah but it dlesnt help me that the team I am most likely to lose to if we start Marci is you/dwlee. So I am especially averse to Marci when it is you that wants it. If Salsa flips town I think it triggers reevaluation. But if Marci flips town, I still want Salsa. So I'd rather start Salsa and reevaluate if I'm wrong.

Town can accidentally hammer, but the self-voting was not an accident. I dont think that is in Salsabil's townrange, and frankly, I know from owners market blitz that Marci is easily confused. It is entirely possible she did it by accident. Let's nail one scum today and keep our mislims available to us so we can go to the end with the best possible 3-4 if we mess up.

For argument's sake, let's say Marci is scum though. Who is her partner if not Salsa?

[MathBlade]

I would say based on these last few pages your stock would diminish greatly if Salsa is town and Marci is scum because you actively tried to derail the Marci elim. Before today if you had asked me that question I would say Dwlee then NM then you but if that was the case throw you all in a pressure cooker and see who comes up.

I know this is a non answer but if we elim Salsa and he’s town that’s a scary proposition here because I have had a feeling a deep wolf was on DGB’s hammer and not having been able to sort there really irks me.

[MathBlade]

I would rather policy NM or just do Marci
What’s your case on Salsa. I don’t have experience with them.

Can you sell me on it?

[marcistar]

why r u against a salsabil elim?

I am kinda thinking Marci Salsa.

That naked hammer was sus as fuck.

And got your message Manatee. You’re still a friendly neighbor.

this was what u og said today, but as time went on... salsabil doesn't seem to be on ur mind as much.. is there a reason u decided to just focus hard on me?

1399 does this post still have any weight in ur mind today??