Large Normal 240: Baileyposting [game over]

[Datisi]

vote count 7.01

with 5 votes in play, it takes 3 to make a decision. day 7 ends in (expired on 2022-08-27 01:15:00).

yeet

geraintm [1]:

Vivax

not voting [4]:

Frogsterking, Crescent, Enchant, geraintm

mod notes

~ this is a mod note.

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[geraintm]

To put it simply if it is Gera like I'm currently thinking it is, I may have discovered a serious scumtell of his and I would rather not say.

I might want to research more of his scumgames after work.

I have no idea if I have any tells, but I know I am a horrible scum player because I am way, way panicky all the time. I think I am always really really obvious when I am scum. But for someone people repeatedly say they cannot get good reads on, I wish people would actually target me so I cam get cleared. Me, that's what I do. Not mafia is in the game, i would check them over. Crescent, same as I find you intimidating and would want to know your alignment (and I think unchecked scum you would be very strong)

Right now I feel like I am being set up by someone to get eliminated. I also feel like if I try and push the people I think are more likely to be scum ill get overwhelmed in response

[Enchant]

So you choosed tactic where you just hope someone else push people who are more likely to be scum?

Makes sense.

[Frogsterking]

gera/frogster are trickier

I can see this though. Tricky scum play style. Works against some players some of the time. Situationally effective. Gets obliterated by organized, emotionally stable Townies who are actively monitoring the game thread.

[Enchant]

gera/frogster are trickier

I can see this though. Tricky scum play style. Works against some players some of the time. Situationally effective. Gets obliterated by organized, emotionally stable Townies

I bursted in laugher, sorry.

[Frogsterking]

gera/frogster are trickier

I can see this though. Tricky scum play style. Works against some players some of the time. Situationally effective. Gets obliterated by organized, emotionally stable Townies

I bursted in laugher, sorry.

I'll be here all night

[Enchant]

gera/frogster are trickier

I can see this though. Tricky scum play style. Works against some players some of the time. Situationally effective. Gets obliterated by organized, emotionally stable Townies

I bursted in laugher, sorry.

I'll be here all night

Cool, because i will not be here all night.

[Frogsterking]

2756 is AI for Town!Enchant right

[Crescent]

Oh this game is not ready for the ass whooping I am about to dispense, even with some unclear results in there. I did not expect to spend well over an hour on this, as I certainly I didn't expect this to turn out to be so extensive. I'm going to need to see more than this passive woe is me commentary to move the needle at this point. Gera has tried to keep everyone in the POE today by attacking townreads, but has yet to actually give a scumread.


Results were overall mixed. 2190 in particular flies completely in the face of... Basically every other scum Gera game I read, but aside from the honestly horrendous VCA this game there's a lot of overlap in 2273 behavior and some in 2159. It may simply be that Gera changes the way he plays specifically when scum is or feels behind (Scum was only 2 + traitor in 2273). Scum had a clean sweep in 2190. As it's not an every game thing. Most of this will in turn be focused on his play this game and the distinct two points of similarity to 2273 - Where he put his vote in T/T situations, and how he poorly jumped into the fray when a potential teammate was threatened.



...And Enchant is frankly just... Completely, staggeringly useless today and I have zero idea how to read it directly.

I ISOed various past games of his, both town and scum. There was one specific scum game (2159) that stuck out as similar, especially on day 1. However, 2190 and 2257 (especially 2190)

don't

stick out in this regard. Well, I may as well point out what I noticed between this game and 2273. This is kinda just a demolition of a VCA anyway. It doesn't help that Umlaut was such an inactive host that there aren't a ton of VCAs.

On day 1 in 2273, Gera countervoted Clidd... And kept that vote there for an awfully long time.. As the only vote. Three wagons were starting to form:

Corwinoid (3): UNOwen, Vivax, Crescent
UNOwen (2): clidd, Elsa Jay
GeorgeBailey (2): Not_Mafia, Eiralox
Not_Mafia (1): GoldfishFromTheMoon

Corwin eventually reached 4 votes, Owen reached 3 votes, and George was eventually hammered. Two were town and one was traitor aka scum had no idea they were scum. What did Gera do? He changed his splinter on Clidd to a splinter on me and never moved his vote again for the rest of the day. He completely avoided the trains.

Owen, the traitor, is vigged night 1. He tunnels a lot on Vivax day 2 (I've noticed he does tunnel more as scum than as town).


gibus (3): BlueBloodedToffee, Elsa Jay, Corwinoid
Vivax (2): Not_Mafia, geraintm
BlueBloodedToffee (1): gibus

Turns to:

gibus (3): BlueBloodedToffee, Elsa Jay, Corwinoid
Vivax (3): Not_Mafia, geraintm, Eiralox
Elsa Jay (2): Alexcellent, Crescent


Gibus just voted Elsa to 3, aka a three way tie. Elsa is the other scum. Gera

immediately

jumps on Gibus. There's a big delay between this and the next VCA, but by then, he's the only vote left on Gibus.

The VC after that:

BlueBloodedToffee (6): Alexcellent, Crescent, Corwinoid, Elsa Jay, geraintm, gibus

Elsa is safe and blood is in the water. They both pounce.


Vivax (4): gibus, Elsa Jay, Not_Mafia, Eiralox
Not_Mafia (1): geraintm

He spent almost the entireity of day 2 on Vivax, but avoids him here. He looks like he doesn't want to be caught on town. After all, Elsa's claim should have a limited lifespan if *cough* Corwin were a remotely capable mafia player. Gera is concerned with being on two town votes in a row.


Let's compare it to this game, starting with this early mess on day 1. Every single person with a vote on them is town. Gera adds a useless vote on Lowell to the mix.

Fredrick A Campbell [3]: Andante, bugspray, Greeting
MalcolmTucker [2]: Vivax, Enchant
Vivax [2]: UNOwen, Lowell
PookyTheMagicalBear [1]: Fredrick A Campbell
Firebringer [1]: PookyTheMagicalBear
Dwlee99 [1]: MegAzumarill
Greeting [1]: Prince of Paterson

Shortly after, it turns to this.

Fredrick A Campbell [3]: Andante, bugspray, Greeting
UNOwen [2]: Vivax, Fredrick A Campbell
MegAzumarill [2]: PookyTheMagicalBear, Lowell
Dwlee99 [2]: MegAzumarill, Prince of Paterson
Lowell [1]: geraintm

Meg is in gaining steam, and Gera jumps on Fred... An action which he claimed he had a reason for when I scrutinized it, but no reason is ever given for this vote. He then immediately shades Enchant for.. Voting Fred. Then Meg just... Completely stops playing the game, and Gera throws a vote on him right in that sweet spot for bussing at #5. Meg gets to -1... And Gera unvotes. Greeting specifically called this possibility of Gera pulling back a bus vote.

Now let's ramp it up into higher gear.

Day 2 starts like this:

MalcolmTucker [4]: Enchant, Unsure, Andante, Firebringer
Fredrick A Campbell [3]: bugspray, Crescent, Prince of Paterson
Unsure [1]: Greeting

Turns to:

Fredrick A Campbell [4]: Crescent, Prince of Paterson, bugspray, Firebringer
MalcolmTucker [3]: Enchant, Unsure, Andante
Unsure [3]: Greeting, Vivax, Lowell
Firebringer [1]: Fredrick A Campbell

Gera throws a vote on Fire

while shading Fred for voting Fire

. It's another vote that's going nowhere. The day ends over 400 posts later. He never unvotes Fire, and he sits there alone on Fire for virtually the entire rest of the day.

Malakittens [5]: Firebringer, Gamma Emerald, Enchant, Unsure, Vivax
Fredrick A Campbell [4]: Prince of Paterson, UNOwen, Andante, Lowell
Enchant [1]: Fredrick A Campbel
Unsure [1]: Greeting
Firebringer [1]: geraintm

Mala gets to 5 at this time (I actually forgot she even took the lead, and of course, Gera's still on Fire).. And oh look who was on Mala on day 2... Fire, Enchant, and Vivax. Unsure was also there. Fred's train we now know is pure against Mala's. Are both scum really bussing Mala here? Is Unsure really bussing Mala here, then bussing Mala AND Enchant? Either both scum are bussing, or the last scum is the guy who's sat there avoiding making any crucial vote all day. I'll take the splinter vote over the field for this one. Gera has exactly one post in this entire timeframe. It's back to Fred 5 Mala 4 at the time. He comments on neither and shades Enchant instead. Scum is sure shading Enchant a lot this game... It reminds me of what scum did 2272... With Gera.

Let's move on. There's more.

A whole tonna people get votes.

UNOwen [2]: Andante, Greeting
Prince of Paterson [2]: Enchant, Lowell
Enchant [2]: Prince of Paterson, Vivax
Unsure [1]: Firebringer
Lowell [1]: UNOwen
MalcolmTucker [1]: Unsure

Is a representative example of just how ridiculous the beginning of this day was. Gera calls Vivax scum #1 and Enchant scum #2 in #1678. Here's the votals in #1717, but that's not the full story.

Prince of Paterson [4]: Enchant, Lowell, Andante, Vivax
Enchant [3]: Prince of Paterson, Unsure, Greeting
Unsure [1]: Firebringer
Lowell [1]: UNOwen
Vivax [1]: geraintm

Guess what though? Enchant had

four votes and was in the lead

when Gera specifically labeled him as his #2 scum. We had another potentially town/town situation, where he listed one of them as ascum read, the same way he did was Fred on day 2.. And once again, he avoided actually voting for them when they had a train already there. Gera then remains uselessly on Vivax for a long time, until...

MalcolmTucker [6]: Andante, Vivax, Enchant, Unsure, UNOwen, geraintm
Enchant [3]: Prince of Paterson, Greeting, MalcolmTucker
Prince of Paterson [2]: Lowell, Malakittens
Malakittens [1]: Firebringer

He uses others' arguments as an excuse to vote Malcolm, in a way that shirks responsibility for his own vote ("Sheeping people who know better"). At this time, the concept of just killing Mala is gaining a

lot

of steam, and Malcolm's vote was starting to trail off soon after this. Fire is on her. Andante lists Mala AND Gera as potential scum in #1875. I talk about killing her in #1953... And he's on Malcolm in #1957. Owen says Mala is probably scum in #1969 shortly after this. The tide was turning against her and turning quickly. He also quickly defended Mala's claim after she made it - Something Greeting, Prince, and myself all saw a giant hole in right away. There's a distinct similarity in him voting to protect Mala gaining steam and the way he voted to protect Elsa gaining steam in 2273.

Gera then places no vote at all on day 4... Until Unsure is outed at scum, and promptly jumps him. What he's done today is.. Kind of exactly what Enchant has said. He feels like he's waiting for someone else to make an argument on someone who isn't him.

In day 1 of 2159, MN gets an early mini-train and he sits there as the only vote on NM for a ridiculously long time while people are getting votes all over the place. Eventually scum becomes the top vote... And he immediately votes the next closest town. He then busses the scum... But doesn't keep the vote there. It's just for show. Then it kinda turns clear the scum's going to die and he jumps on right at the end to hammer. It was a similar thing, Gera holding onto a completely useless vote while town was being voted, then immediately counterwagoning the best town target when scum was in danger.

...Yeah I've now spent over an hour and a half on this I think that's enough.

[Crescent]

But anyway, until Mala joined and started defending Enchant, you had a core of players in DWLee/Gera/Unsure who were all shading Enchant very early and very consistently in this game for flimsy reasoning. I developed an actual well-reasoned scumread on him, but these three? Not one of them ever did.

I've had this lingering feeling for a while that scum specifically wanted me to kamikaze Enchant today, a feeling that got stronger once I read Unsure's ISO. To be even more specific,

Owen townread Enchant

. Post #2432 is one of his last posts, and after re-reading the ISOs as I have I'm finding I agree with it. The last time Lowell mentions Enchant is... Actually a long time ago, but it's post #1673... And he doesn't scum read Enchant.

In #2502, Owen specifically says he townreads Gera, but will "definitely reevaluate him in final 5" to make sure on that read. In essence, even though there was still the possibility that Owen fakeclaimed to bus Unsure, who was likely dying anyway, Owen basically had to die if Gera was scum. I actually did not think Owen was going to be the kill last night, because I went into the night locked on Enchant. I actually thought they'd kill Vivax and try to pit me and Owen against each other. Vivax is a total loose cannon and frankly you cannot predict what he's going to do.

So a night kill that didn't make sense to me at the time does make sense to me if it's Gera instead of Enchant.

[Crescent]

Also yeah I told you I was treating today like lylo don't say you weren't warned~

[Crescent]

I don't think Enchant is likely to be scum, his interactions with Unsure/Malakittens don't look aligned to me.

If Mala's claim is true then her green check on Enchant will be the only case where a PR has helped us win this game. Too bad it's a (in my opinion) scum fake claim.

I think there's a non-zero chance that Enchant is still town after we check if Mala's lying. But if we can afford it, I'd want to elim the slot before ELo.

This in particular looks like a possible scumslip from Unsure, as it seems to assume Malakittens is lying before I had even counterclaimed. Scum plan was probably to set up an Enchant execution post Malakittens flip.

Right here is a pretty strong defense of Enchant by Owen.. Right before Owen died, and the argument very much holds under scrutiny upon reading Unsure's ISO. Look at the post right

above

this one.

I am down to eliminate Malakittens today.

There are better way to solve the game by leaving Malakittens to day five and also the Malcolm flip makes me want to refrain from doing this kind of play.

Calls Mala and Enchant scum together on day 3.

Says he doesn't vote to vote Mala on day 4.

Says Mala being scum doesn't scum confirm Enchant, but we should vote him anyway "if we can afford it" (Not because he's scum?)

Immediately votes Mala in #2251 after Owen claims

Finds a bad reason to shade Enchant in #2280.


Unsure is trying to set up Enchant so hard on days 2, 3, and 4 that it's absolutely glaring.

[Crescent]

On a side note I'm off on Saturday and would very much like this game to not be a part of it.

But anyway, Gera, you say you're being set up by someone to be killed today. That also only leaves Vivax and myself. Enchant is doing nothing, and FK barely seems invested (and I don't blame him given his situation). Yet you won't go on the offensive at all?

You sound like you're hoping someone pops in to swaddle you. It's a defeatist, anti-town attitude.

[Vivax]

Finally something to work off in the morn!

Oh this game is not ready for the ass whooping I am about to dispense, even with some unclear results in there.

I did not expect to spend well over an hour on this, as I certainly I didn't expect this to turn out to be so extensive. I'm going to need to see more than this passive woe is me commentary to move the needle at this point. Gera has tried to keep everyone in the POE today by attacking townreads, but has yet to actually give a scumread.

You sound like you're hoping someone pops in to swaddle you.

It's a defeatist, anti-town attitude.

I have lots of fear right now

Spoiler:

vote count 3.05

with 13 votes in play, it takes 7 to make a decision. day 3 ends in (expired on 2022-08-02 23:30:00).

yeet

UNOwen [2]:

Andante, Greeting

Prince of Paterson [2]:

Enchant, Lowell

Enchant [2]:

Prince of Paterson, Vivax

Unsure [1]:

Firebringer

Lowell [1]:

UNOwen

MalcolmTucker [1]:

Unsure

not voting [4]:

MalcolmTucker, Malakittens, Crescent, geraintm

mod notes

~ Firebringer is v/la till the weekend
~ this is a mod note.

flavour

[geraintm]

I have a 5 hour car journey shortly.
You've gone through a past game and pointed out similarities, but you haven't done it with a town game of mine.
I don't move votes around much day one - I will often leave a random vote the whole day. I like evidence before voting, but I will limit on in ang game when I have some. There wasn't evidence early doors this game, but when there was I voted when I felt strongly. Now, I don't feel strongly and so I'm hesitant again (I'm not waiting to be cuddled up or whatever it was you said).
I knew this would happen, as soon as I said anything about any other player today I was going to get out posted
You mentioned a tell

[Vivax]

(I'm not waiting to be cuddled up or whatever it was you said).

[Frogsterking]

and FK barely seems invested (and I don't blame him given his situation).

Crescent have you read Gera's iso?

Crescent have you read Gera's iso?

It's lacking.. But his ISOs are always lacking.

I agree.

It's also possible this same line of reasoning applies to Enchant and the Town bodies who wanted them dead. I haven't looked at Enchant's games yet to verify but I imagine there are often a number of dead Townies who wanted to vote Town!Enchant at some point. Enchant is extremely common lim bait.

I've basically been trying to read him off of his style rather than his content.

Can you elaborate on your thoughts about geraintm's iso and what motivates geraintm?

[Frogsterking]

GrumpyFrog: I am

GrumpyFrog

this morning and

GrumpyFrog

says Frogsterking is not a low effort Townie:

In #2502, Owen specifically says he townreads Gera, but will "definitely reevaluate him in final 5" to make sure on that read. In essence, even though there was still the possibility that Owen fakeclaimed to bus Unsure, who was likely dying anyway, Owen basically had to die if Gera was scum. I actually did not think Owen was going to be the kill last night, because I went into the night locked on Enchant. I actually thought they'd kill Vivax and try to pit me and Owen against each other. Vivax is a total loose cannon and frankly you cannot predict what he's going to do.

GrumpyFrog: Frogsterking calculated the above point about Owen 36~ hours after Prince flipped (which is 12~ hours before Owen even did.) Therefore, anticipating our current situation, Frogsterking searched and discovered 661 (and the quotes within) and 991 as potential evidence for the other surprising nightkill.

[Vivax]

One of the first things Dwlee did was call out ench for making a readslist, where would you place the m/m odds of that happening?

[Frogsterking]

One of the first things Dwlee did was call out ench for making a readslist, where would you place the m/m odds of that happening?

I would put it higher in likelihood than the earlier post you found with Meg. That's quite tricky of scum!Meg IMO.

[Frogsterking]

Actually I'm being stupid right now aren't I. The Meg/gera interaction is more likely to be m/m than the Dwlee/Enchant one.

[Frogsterking]

Scum!Frog probably pushes Vivax here right

[Vivax]

Actually I'm being stupid right now aren't I. The Meg/gera interaction is more likely to be m/m than the Dwlee/Enchant one.

At least you've just reduced my doubts about your alignment
Rereading a bit of the pages when DWLee went for Ench SR, there were quite a bunch trying to push them, Firebringer shielded them from Pooky, Cres wasn't posting too much around the time.
That in turn brings back my Cres paranoia,

but I can think about that next month

UNVOTE:

Argh, I need to do stuff irl
Ench seems like they want Cres dead genuinely but can't do anything about it which they mentioned

p-edit: It's been so long since someone pushed me :< , maybe in a later game I'll switch meta

[Frogsterking]

p-edit: It's been so long since someone pushed me :< , maybe in a later game I'll switch meta

That's too bad I'm not a scum slot then. I would just point to random things you've done and keep repeating that they make me feel uncomfortable. I would probably create some bizarre tinfoil about how there are two scum left and you're defending Enchant. It seems like an approach that might work here.

[Vivax]

Given recent experiences you might be right on that, looks like it’s the latest experience of the introspection journey that I tend to bring a scum along until lategame which in turns keeps me alive