Mini 1875: Pine's Death Trap Post Game - Town win!


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Post Post #2900 (ISO) » Sat Feb 25, 2017 3:38 pm

Post by Cooperative Sheep »

In post 2896, RadiantCowbells wrote:Grendel is my current pick for scum-in-VTs.
What made him worse/Nancy better in your mind?
In post 2886, Grendel wrote:Sheep keeps citing hypocritical behavior like is a scum tell.

I'm not so inclined to believe that. Much more likely that Sheep is pushing out those kinds of arguments b/c they look like insightful observations.
Because I think it is - if you think something is what scum do, and is a valid tell to find scum, then *by definition* you think it is not something town should do (or you are using really bad logic in your scum tells). That makes it a valid scum tell.

I also "keep" citing it exactly twice, and only once strongly. All repetitions are based on people asking me about it.
Nancy also dismissed my case on her as us 'reading a different game' and then claimed she didn't even understand what hypocrisy I saw - that's not how you sort people.
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Post Post #2901 (ISO) » Sat Feb 25, 2017 3:40 pm

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In post 2869, Cooperative Sheep wrote:
In post 2867, nancy wrote:Sheep I literally have no words.
You don't find potential hypocrisy in suggesting someone is scum for pushing off the MBG wagon and then trying to start a wagon on that player (which pushes off the MBG wagon) while all the evidence for your second case *requires* MBG to be scum?
Because I have issues with that - words or no.
And this is my case of hypocrisy that is too difficult for her to understand.
Seems pretty direct and explained, really.
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Post Post #2902 (ISO) » Sat Feb 25, 2017 3:56 pm

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The only hypocrisy in that was saying ThinkBig was scum for being bad while saying that you were Town for being bad, which no one brought up. I think I understand what you're getting at now but you basically haven't understood what I was doing or why because none of the things you said match what actually happened. I wasn't pushing ThinkBig for pushing off the wagon, I was pushing ThinkBig for pushing a scumslip. I honestly can't tell if you're misrepping or just not reading, you're so tunneled here I have no idea how to respond to you anymore.
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Post Post #2903 (ISO) » Sat Feb 25, 2017 4:39 pm

Post by Grendel »

In post 2892, nancy wrote:UNVOTE:

ThinkBig, I want to believe you are Town so could you please link me to any/all Town games where you push a scumslip?

I'm flat out not voting in PRs today. Also, judging by the lack of reactions to my push on ThinkBig I'm inclined to believe that mbg and ThinkBig share alignments, and I think that alignment is more likely than not Town. If I'm not wrong on this count, I believe Fro99er following me onto ThinkBig is Town-motivated, which solidifies my read on that slot, so I'm not willing to lynch there today and that leaves {Grendel, Sheep}. Pending anything extraordinary from ThinkBig I don't think this stance is likely to move much for the remainder of the day.
Can you elaborate more on these thought processes?
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Post Post #2904 (ISO) » Sat Feb 25, 2017 4:57 pm

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In post 2900, Cooperative Sheep wrote:
In post 2886, Grendel wrote:Sheep keeps citing hypocritical behavior like is a scum tell.

I'm not so inclined to believe that. Much more likely that Sheep is pushing out those kinds of arguments b/c they look like insightful observations.
Because I think it is - if you think something is what scum do, and is a valid tell to find scum, then *by definition* you think it is not something town should do (or you are using really bad logic in your scum tells). That makes it a valid scum tell.

I also "keep" citing it exactly twice, and only once strongly. All repetitions are based on people asking me about it.
Nancy also dismissed my case on her as us 'reading a different game' and then claimed she didn't even understand what hypocrisy I saw - that's not how you sort people.
I used to think that projection of something a player had previously done onto another player was a sign of scum guilt. Though I never got evidence to confirm it to be the case, in fact situations that out right contrasted it, (usually irrational town). Which I think is similar to what you are saying, ei "Pushing somebody for being hypocritical". If this is a legitimate thing you believe in I would like to hear some evidence you have for it in the post game.

Nancy has been playing a pretty open fisted game. While some things don't add up logically with her pushes, I don't think I've see much scumminess from her slot. Even the liquid reads, it seems counter productive to a scum game since jumping from town, scum, town, scum with her slot assessments opens her up to a lot of attack she could have avoided with more static reads.
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Post Post #2905 (ISO) » Sat Feb 25, 2017 5:01 pm

Post by Grendel »

Yeah, I want to lynch a vt claim today

VOTE: Sheep
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Post Post #2906 (ISO) » Sat Feb 25, 2017 5:16 pm

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Put simply, if mbg is scum with ThinkBig then my push on ThinkBig obviously can't attract scum attention. If mbg and ThinkBig are Town then scum have no motivation to push off the wagon, if mbg is scum and ThinkBig is Town then scum have motivation to push off the wagon, if mbg is Town and ThinkBig is scum then scum have motivation to push off the wagon. No one attempted to push off the wagon or kill my push, therefore mbg!scum/ThinkBig!Town and mbg!Town/ThinkBig!scum can be reasonably discounted, which leaves scum/scum Town/Town, I don't believe that ThinkBig is scum therefore I believe they are both Town. If you want to argue that Sheep is scum then his jabs at me could be construed as an attempt to kill my push on mbg, but they were pretty weak and he's tunneled on my slot so I'm not really reading them as that. Fro99er's Town motivation comes from following my argumentation without really backing it up with content then flipping back to mbg, this reads like someone who agreed with the argumentation and the benefit of the choice but returned to their stronger read as an emotional response, not someone playing the field or pushing a counterwagon.
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Post Post #2907 (ISO) » Sat Feb 25, 2017 5:36 pm

Post by Grendel »

Ehh, some spacing between thoughts would have been nice Nancy.

Its a lot of "ifs", but I think you have good points there.

What are some of your current thoughts on Sheep?

It sound like you disagree with some of my case there?
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Post Post #2908 (ISO) » Sat Feb 25, 2017 6:50 pm

Post by nancy »

My bads on the formatting. But this whole lovely game of mafia is based on "ifs" ;)

Sell me on the Sheep case? I can't really reconcile their behavior this game with any scum actually wanting to win. Their tunnel on me just looks an awful lot like a lost townie and the way they can't seem to follow what's going on doesn't really smack to me of scum with daytalk.
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Post Post #2909 (ISO) » Sun Feb 26, 2017 12:13 am

Post by Keyser Söze »

Thanks for replying MGB :)

Will read today.
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Post Post #2910 (ISO) » Sun Feb 26, 2017 1:11 am

Post by nancy »

Hey Keyser, feel up for a little setup spec? I've been doing a ton of reading in wiki and forums and the more I read the more plausible it becomes to me that none of these PR claims are faked. 2 goons + JOAT with daychat feels kind of possible here against our claimed PRs. Thoughts? Both scum in VTs?
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Post Post #2911 (ISO) » Sun Feb 26, 2017 1:17 am

Post by RadiantCowbells »

lol
2019 stats: Town WR 76.7%, overall WR 81.667%, 1 scum defeat involving a major mod error in lylo vs 8 scum wins.
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Post Post #2912 (ISO) » Sun Feb 26, 2017 1:18 am

Post by nancy »

RC disagrees! XD
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Post Post #2913 (ISO) » Sun Feb 26, 2017 1:27 am

Post by nancy »

BP/Motion Detector/JK all kind of suck and are WIFOM-y. You can get maybe 3-4 reports from Cop/Backup Cop combined if you're lucky. Daychat is fucking super and JOAT is great but not broken in the way that RB is, plus it fits against the variety of the claimed PRs here. Which part of this is unrealistic? There are plenty of TPR-heavy setups these days from the looks of it.
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Post Post #2914 (ISO) » Sun Feb 26, 2017 5:16 am

Post by Fro99er »

did anyone die yet?
"I officially announce Fro99er the king of guilties because this is the second time he has guiltied a slot I was really unsure about.
Heil King Froggo.
Ribbit ribbit." -Transcend
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Post Post #2915 (ISO) » Sun Feb 26, 2017 5:17 am

Post by Fro99er »

i'll post real things tomorrow. Daytona 500 today
"I officially announce Fro99er the king of guilties because this is the second time he has guiltied a slot I was really unsure about.
Heil King Froggo.
Ribbit ribbit." -Transcend
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Post Post #2916 (ISO) » Sun Feb 26, 2017 10:56 am

Post by nancy »

In post 2914, Fro99er wrote:did anyone die yet?
Stop voting in PRs.
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Post Post #2917 (ISO) » Sun Feb 26, 2017 10:58 am

Post by Keyser Söze »

In post 2889, mattblackguy wrote:@Keyser, So I decided I'll answer your questions
In post 2308, Keyser Söze wrote:But my concern was the discrepancy of your changed read of me.
Why were you t/leaning me D1 then?
Why didn't you jailkeep one of your two strongest t/reads (Alisae / Grendel)?
You were asking questions that made me think you were trying to sort others, and didn't see anything scummy from you. If I think someone is putting in a genuine effort to sort others, and scumhunt I usually townread them unless I see something that pings me as scummy.
This is an easy/generic reason to town lean someone but I accept it.


I thought you had a greater chance of eating the nightkill seeing as you were widely townread by almost everyone, and you seemed like a decent player that scum would want to kill off early.
Hmm... so you put the general opinion of others over your own strongest t/reads... in a previous game as a cop, I chose to investigate the player who was being s/read by the most people (not necessarily my own strongest s/read)... thus, I could see why town-you jailed me.

In post 2825, Keyser Söze wrote:Do you think people doubting your PR claim are bad-town or scum?

Do you think town or scum are more likely to push a no lynch today?

Do you think their paranoia given all the PR claims is irrational?

Can you see how people could doubt the reasons why you chose to jail me N1?
(1) Both obviously. Scum definitely would benefit a lot from me being lynched with how strong my role is right now. If I can stop one more kill it will buy us an extra mislynch which scum definitely don't want.
(2) Idk, but no lynching is definitely better than mislynching me today. Lynching in VT is preferable to both though. If we can nail the scum in VT then we basically win the game, but if we don't it still narrows down the game a lot if we lynch the right person. There's a good chance we can sort out the PR claims tomorrow depending on the night actions.
(3) No...
(4) I'm not going to lie about who I jailed night 1. I knew saying I jailed you night 1 would make people more suspicious of me, but it's what I did. I'm not going to start lying and say I jailed someone else when I didn't. If I was scum lying about my role don't you think it makes more sense for me to lie and say I jailed Grendel? I townread Grendel for mostly the entirety of the game, and no one would be suspicious of me choosing Grendel.
Hmm, yes, WIFOM says scum-you would have just picked your strongest t/read and not me. However, my confusion (or suspicion) is the TIMING of when you started to scum read me. Was it at the start of D2, during your re-read during D1, during a re-read of my ISO D2? It looked to me like you came into D2 scum reading me, so saying you jailed me for being strong-townie was a contradiction. I suspected this contradiction was a SCUM-SLIP. You still need to put down in writing the timescale of your changing read of me.

In post 2854, Keyser Söze wrote:Please can you explain to me why Rauth's roleclaim meant Grendel, Nancy and Akarin were town?

...and the 3 scum HAD to be in the bottom list of 5 players.
I was townreading those 3 independent of Rauth. I didn't say they HAD to be in the bottom list. Everything I say is my opinion. Stop reading everything I say like I'm trying to pass off everything as facts, because I'm not. Those bottom were the list of people I wasn't townreading. Now I know you didn't care about any of my answers, which is why I didn't care about answering them in the first place, but just so you don't get continue to be cranky I answered them for you. I want to see if anyone is reading my posts. If you read this far say cheese in your next post. Here I'll give you some good questions.
Cheese.


(1) If you think I'm scum then who do you think my partner is? You already said you don't think Akarin(ThinkBig), and Sheep are scum. Then who else is there?
I'd prefer to take on one player at a time via their associations with JarJar. I had you and LUV as the prime candidates going into D3. Since then, other players have presented scum-cases via Sheep and ThingBig via your scum-flip. Thus, you can understand how your flip would provide some information. Other players, have ruled out 5 town PR's - thus, many people (including me) don't think ALL the PR's can be town (MGB, Rauth, RC, LUV)


(2) Since you think I'm scum and want to lynch me you must be pretty sure that scum attacked RC, and that I wasn't the reason for the No Kill. Why do you think scum would attack RC when he already claimed Bulletproof. They can't kill him so what was the purpose of that? It makes 0 sense to me that people actually think this was the most probable reason for the No Kill. Seriously me jailing Rauth, and either protecting Rauth from the kill or preventing Rauth from making the kill makes a lot more sense. But it seems it's easier for people to ignore the facts and just say I'm scum.
They could have WIFOM'd themselves out of thinking RC was being truthful. Scum may have thought RC was 1-shot bulletproof. That is the main reason for going for a NO LYNCH/not lynching you today though: your supposed jailing of Rauth explains the no NK - Rauth was the obvious night target for scum.
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Post Post #2918 (ISO) » Sun Feb 26, 2017 11:43 am

Post by Keyser Söze »

In post 2910, nancy wrote:Hey Keyser, feel up for a little setup spec? I've been doing a ton of reading in wiki and forums and the more I read the more plausible it becomes to me that none of these PR claims are faked. 2 goons + JOAT with daychat feels kind of possible here against our claimed PRs. Thoughts? Both scum in VTs?
I'm not experienced enough to know regarding MS set-ups.
I think RC has already strongly suggested it wouldn't have passed for balance.
However, I am getting increasingly hesitant to lynch the claimed-jailkeeper now.
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Post Post #2919 (ISO) » Sun Feb 26, 2017 11:48 am

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In post 2467, RadiantCowbells wrote:I claim that goon/goon/roleblocker vs bp/cop/backup cop is scum sided to the point of being unpassable. I would never pass it. Mykonian would not have.

I don't know Fire or Mastin's ideas of balance but what you're claiming is flat out impossible.
RC didn't say 5 TPR's wouldn't have passed for balance I don't think.
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Post Post #2920 (ISO) » Sun Feb 26, 2017 11:56 am

Post by Keyser Söze »

Ah ok - on my homesite, a 50:50 Town PR/town VT split would be countered by a strong scum team for balance. We've seen 1 goon flip, I'd presume two powerful scum PR's to accompany it.

(...or powers to weaken the cops. We now know a godfather is impossible, so a scum-roleblocker is the obvious choice, or scum rolecop/JOAT like you said)

Right now, on paper, we look too powerful.
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Post Post #2921 (ISO) » Sun Feb 26, 2017 12:37 pm

Post by nancy »

JOAT could include rolecop, e.g., 1x rolecop, 1x strongman, 1x roleblocker.

Our PRs aren't particularly powerful, 2 scum PRs would be out of the question I think. Don't underestimate daytalk, either.
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Post Post #2922 (ISO) » Sun Feb 26, 2017 2:10 pm

Post by Cooperative Sheep »

Cop, Backup Cop, and Jailkeeper are all powerful town PRs.
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Post Post #2923 (ISO) » Sun Feb 26, 2017 2:11 pm

Post by Cooperative Sheep »

Cop is like the definition of a powerful town PR.
And a Backup is the definition of second chances with a very powerful PR.
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Post Post #2924 (ISO) » Sun Feb 26, 2017 2:19 pm

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JK doesn't really become powerful until small numbers, unless I just don't understand the role. Prior to that you're looking at potentially jailing TPRs and killing reports, and combined with BP it generates a significant amount of paranoia-inducing NK WIFOM that can make things difficult for Town to parse. If a JK makes it to lategame it can be as powerful as Cop, yes - depending on the setup.
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