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Sergtacos
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Post Post #1050  (ISO)  » Wed Dec 06, 2017 9:30 pm

We have been talking the possability of a SK in this game, I will have to assume its true because I think a vig would have already admitted they shot if they were either a one shot or 2 shot vig. is there an odd/even night vig?

Sephiroth
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Post Post #1051  (ISO)  » Wed Dec 06, 2017 11:58 pm

In post 1036, skitter30 wrote:
Chip
Flubber
Implosion
Seph
Serg
Me
Two - backup roleblocker
Wave

+1
You are just a puppet... You have no heart... and cannot feel any pain.

Chip Butty
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Post Post #1052  (ISO)  » Thu Dec 07, 2017 12:03 am

Mass claim is stupid and probably scum motivated. Taco is looking towner, and skitter and Sephi correspondingly scummer.

Chip Butty
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Post Post #1053  (ISO)  » Thu Dec 07, 2017 12:04 am

I guess 2IAM gets a pass for today for his role claim.

Chip Butty
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Post Post #1054  (ISO)  » Thu Dec 07, 2017 12:08 am

I never thought i would ever say this, but i think i trust Taco more than anyone right now. I...need to go away for a while to deal with that.

Chip Butty
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Post Post #1055  (ISO)  » Thu Dec 07, 2017 12:10 am

Skitter has had some towny posts recently though...

TwoInAMillion
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Post Post #1056  (ISO)  » Thu Dec 07, 2017 12:12 am

[vote]Chip[/b]

This is not optional. If you don't want to claim it's becuase you're scum and don't have a good fakeclaim.

TwoInAMillion
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Post Post #1057  (ISO)  » Thu Dec 07, 2017 12:13 am

VOTE: Chip

Sergtacos
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Post Post #1058  (ISO)  » Thu Dec 07, 2017 12:39 am

In post 1056, TwoInAMillion wrote:[vote]Chip[/b]

This is not optional. If you don't want to claim it's becuase you're scum and don't have a good fakeclaim.


its not xD lmfao this is so scummy lmfao.

TwoInAMillion
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Post Post #1059  (ISO)  » Thu Dec 07, 2017 1:09 am

Well if you think town can win in mylo and not have all the info then tell me how and I'm all ears.

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Post Post #1060  (ISO)  » Thu Dec 07, 2017 2:02 am

I need to prod dodge, sorry.

implosion
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Post Post #1061  (ISO)  » Thu Dec 07, 2017 3:32 am

Chip wrote: I'm really not feeling the SK angle, I just can't see how it would balance as either 9-3-1 or 10-2-1, unless there are some facy PRs on one side or the other, and there has been no evidence o that.

Wow, it's almost like we'd be able to figure out what we're dealing with more easily if we knew what power roles we had in the town, and what we're dealing with heavily informs the way we should be playing this day!

I just wish there was some way, some mechanism, some process by which we could get a better idea of what those roles are :(
Keep you waiting, hour after hour
Every night in your lonely tower
Looking down at all of the wreckage
When we met you'd never expect this

implosion
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Post Post #1062  (ISO)  » Thu Dec 07, 2017 3:45 am

To put this in concrete terms.

It is potentially MYLO. 2:1:10, 3:1:9, and 3:10 are all completely possible right now. We have no good information that allows us to discern between those. All we know is that there's some killing role out there, and that it's likely-but-not-definitely an SK based on the FBI agent flip. If we lynch without massclaiming, we risk either lynching a confirmable or pseudoconfirmable power role (i.e. something that can be determined to be likely real based on setup speculation) or we risk letting scum claim something under pressure, rather than locking them down into a claim now, without us having the ability to resolve their claim because there might not be any more day phases if we mislynch.

If we massclaim, we can potentially just figure out full-stop if there's an SK or a vig (if there's no vig claim, there's an SK, if there is, then there's a player who is almost certainly either vig or SK which is useful information). We might even be able to pseudoconfirm TIAM as town if, for instance, there is very little or no town power claimed (2:1:10 with the three PRs flipped+claimed so far might be considered balanced, i think, but probably not with less). Basically, we can avoid a ton of different potential mistakes that we can make if we don't massclaim.

If we don't massclaim then we are basically lynching in likely MYLO blind. Yes, it's versus 3-4 scum. That does not make massclaim bad and I don't understand why people have said that's a reason not to massclaim. It's all the more reason to, because today's lynch is basically the potential tipping point where we can turn things around, and we can do that much more easily with concrete information. We are working off of like one piece of concrete information right now, which is TIAM's claim. That is jack shit to be working off of in potential MYLO where we can lose if we're wrong.

I'm really interested why Chip in particular is so staunchly opposed to it.
Keep you waiting, hour after hour
Every night in your lonely tower
Looking down at all of the wreckage
When we met you'd never expect this

Flubbernugget
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Post Post #1063  (ISO)  » Thu Dec 07, 2017 10:47 am

At first I was thinking that massclaim would be tomorrow if lynching tiam didn't bring us to endgame

Now I'm thinking it might help determine their alignment.

Flubbernugget
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Post Post #1064  (ISO)  » Thu Dec 07, 2017 10:48 am

I'm VT

Flubbernugget
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Post Post #1065  (ISO)  » Thu Dec 07, 2017 10:50 am

7 days to deadline means very little time to discuss the massclaim

Sergtacos
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Post Post #1066  (ISO)  » Thu Dec 07, 2017 12:02 pm

In post 1059, TwoInAMillion wrote:Well if you think town can win in mylo and not have all the info then tell me how and I'm all ears.


try and guess who is scum and vote for that person i guess lmao and i think u scum, everyone just needs to hop on.

skitter30
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Post Post #1067  (ISO)  » Thu Dec 07, 2017 12:25 pm

In post 1044, skitter30 wrote:
In post 1036, skitter30 wrote:
Chip
Flubber - VT
Implosion
Seph
Serg - VT
Me - VT
Two - backup roleblocker
Wave


Since we're apparently just doing this in any old order, I'm VT.

Chip, we're prob in MYLO - massclaim helps us figure out if we're dealing with a vig or an SK. We might not get enough info through the claim to resolve that question, but it's possible we will. If we mislynch today, it doesn't really matter what people's roles are since the game will be over.

Basically agreeing with what implosion said.

Also I'm going to be much lower activity for the next few days since

A) finals started yesterday

B) my campus is just outside the danger zone for one of the wildfires near LA.

Chip Butty
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Post Post #1068  (ISO)  » Thu Dec 07, 2017 4:29 pm

Okay, there seems to be broad support for mc, so it can't be all scum driven. Interesting that wave was absent for this discussion. So...

Chip Butty
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Post Post #1069  (ISO)  » Thu Dec 07, 2017 4:48 pm

I'm, uh, <cough> the vig. Sorry about the Dany shot, but let me explain...

See, I was recently vig in Open 698, and n1 and n2 I took the sensible, high-info shots, both being runners-up in the respective lynch votes. Both shots hit town, and town lost (At least partly because Ironstove gave the game to scum, but town was in a bad way d3). Anyway, I was wary of taking the same approach this time.

N1 i decided to holster. N2 i decided to take a chance on a shot. Why Dany? Partly because town.Mulch fingered him, and town.Mulch is supposed to be good at scumhunting, even if he struggles to look town. Also the way Dany leapt in in d2 twilight to point town at 2IAM pinged me, and his ISO seemed kind of neh, just going along with easy lynch trains and not contributing much that was original.

Take care out there skitter...

Sergtacos
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Post Post #1070  (ISO)  » Thu Dec 07, 2017 5:21 pm

There we have it, a vig. Y'all happy now?

TwoInAMillion
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Post Post #1071  (ISO)  » Thu Dec 07, 2017 5:35 pm

That's a pretty convenient claim. He could still be a sk.

skitter30
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Post Post #1072  (ISO)  » Thu Dec 07, 2017 6:12 pm

Sigh.

Yeah, I started getting some niggling feelings that it might be you based on our interactions yesterday.

Still think you should have shot Two or Serg here always, but yeah, won't rehash that again.

KI'm like 85% certain you're town based on that last post. Guessing Wossi is a red herring. You prob shouldn't answer questions regarding how many shots you are etc etc etc.

Trying to figure out if we should finish this or not . . .

If you're actually a vig, there's no way there'd be an SK too I think? Too many kills that way.

So we're prob 5-3, which is still MYLO, so yeah I guess we finish this.

Spoiler:
If we lynch town today, chip doesn't kill tonight, tomorrow it's 3-3 and game.

If we lynch scum today, chip doesn't kill tonight, tomorrow it's 4-2, still MYLO.

If we lynch town today and chip kills town, game.

If we lynch town today and Chip kills scum, tomorrow it's 3-2, LYLO.

If we lynch scum today and Chip kills town, tomorrow it's 3-2, MYLO.

If we lynch scum today and Chip kills scum, tomorrow it's 4-1, not XYLO.


So yeah we're pretty much always in MYLO/LYLO here no matter what happens.

Should we talk about who you would target next?

I kinda want to make a flowchart about who ought to be shot depending on who gets lynched and what they flip to optimize this, but that's going to take time that I don't have today. (And of course accounting for the fact that the dude that I'd always want to get vigged here is apparently a backup roleblocker, so yeah).

(also everything's safe, just classes + exams have been cancelled, uncancelled, and recancelled about four trillion times in the last 36 hours, so my life has been a tad hectic).

TwoInAMillion
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Post Post #1073  (ISO)  » Thu Dec 07, 2017 6:22 pm

I find it unlikely that he's town due to that he didn't use his shot early on. That would have been the town thing to do as his survival is not gauranteed.

SK motivation is to lay low and assume you'll survive to later on in the game and shoot then.

The fact that he didn't want to claim further incriminates him.

Chip Butty
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Post Post #1074  (ISO)  » Thu Dec 07, 2017 6:41 pm

In post 1073, TwoInAMillion wrote:I find it unlikely that he's town due to that he didn't use his shot early on. That would have been the town thing to do as his survival is not gauranteed.

SK motivation is to lay low and assume you'll survive to later on in the game and shoot then.

The fact that he didn't want to claim further incriminates him.


So, a vig should assume he won't survive until late game, and an SK should assume he will? Is this too dumb to be scum? I keep wavering on that question.

But skitter is right. I should have shot you, if only to stem the flow of dumb.

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