Mini Normal 1908 - In The Web (Game Over)

[MarioManiac4]

can it really just be as simple as MMM and ircher

[Ircher]

[VOTE: Penguin

Currently my strongest scmread.

[Ircher]

Disclaimer before MM4 accuses me of changing reads on a whim: I read through some of the ISIOs while compiling this.

Spoiler: Reads

Confirmed Town

(From my perspective) (98%-100% Confidence)
Ircher  (100%) - Role PM
Kelvin Smith (99%) - I've liked him throughout the game, and his Cop claim on scum cements his town status.

Likely Town

(85%-97% Confidence)

Leaning Town

(60%-84% Confidence)

Null

(0% - 30% Confidence; No/Very Weak Read)

Neutral

(31%-59% Confidence; Mixed Read)
Gamma (+41%) - 107 and 115 were the basis of my early townread here. Mainly because of the fact that his reads were consistent, and he responded pretty well to pressure. My "serious" vote early in the game on Gamma was mainly because of 235, but I later realized that post is really null-indicative. (I was being silly I guess...) I like his response to Mort in 259. The somewhat-a-contradiction between 876 and 893 pings a little bit, but in the end, it doesn't affect my read that much. Not sure why he claimed in 1608.... I guess he's just frustrated. (Not sure what to make of that....) Just the way he posts makes it hard to get a strong read here.

MMM (+38%) - 63 really has the wrong feel. 379 actually has good vibes to it. 610 makes his push on Transcend look really bad.... 699--why would you park your vote on someone who you are quite obviously biased against because of the insults he sent yor way? I honestly can't see how such is town-motivated. (Caveat: Anti-town, not scummy.) 1254 has a good, laidback feel to it. 1329 was a decent lynch pool at the time of the post (though I disagree with lynching Yoshi at the time.) 1658 is a good post (and not just because I'm biased.) This one is a mixed bag -- seems to alternate between good and bad posting....

Tarkus (+34%) - 356 feels like a good post. 953 is bad but not really alignment indicative. (The Fitz wagon was not a Policy Lynch.) A few good posts, not too many bad posts, but honestly, I kinda want more from this slot.

Paul/Grey/RayFrost (+31%) - Don't like 554; 5 pages in is more than enough to make a catch up post if you're that many pages behind. 562 is just weird. 670 really catches my attention as Grey tries to push a derp thing from Paul as a townslip. Posts like 594 are just annoying fluff. 615 would've been fine if there wasn't the "probably" at the end. 645 is a bad joke. 651 is fine I guess. Lots of Ray's early posts are excuses as to why he cannot catch up, but I'm not questioning their legitimacy right now. Disagree with 716, but it's probably the first town post I've really seen from the slot. Kinda like Ray's posting though...

Mario (-31%) - Kinda weird not to have scumreads by (post]288[/post]. The lack of any kind of scumreads by 692 is a bit alarming, but understandable -- most of the players in the game feel town. 922 is a good post. 1079 is kinda meh. 1153 is false as there was quite a few counters to Wheme. 1162 feels too dismissive. Alas, 1209 being true seems to be a thing on this site. 1592: "I have posted 78 times" -- Maybe 15 of them are actually useful? Number of posts doesn't matter quite as much as what's in it. Not sure what to make of the "It's not Ircher's fault that he is a Scumlord" comment. 1630 is a misrep of my stances. Nothing in 1649 show me stating that Penguin was mod!conf scum. It showed that I thought Penguin was the best lynch out of the lynches I considered viable. 1651 is biased misinterpretation. Not sure what made you think 1655 but to clarify, what you ruled out is more as to what I meant. (Perhaps my statement was ambiguous to some extent, but your flat out refusal to accept my explanation is obnoxious.) 1683 and 1690 are decent posts. 2010 is a good post (as well as the earlier vote.)

Delbird/Penguin (-42%) - 140 really doesn't read right. What's to say town cannot be confident? Like, I feel you need more than just that. Don't like 1293 and 1297's assertion that Mort's lack of analysis is alignment indicative. It COULD BE indicative, but is it indicative or is Penguin just trying to find a reason to scumread Mort? 1390 feels like he was trying to warp the argument to something else. Don't get what Penguin is suggesting in 1466 tbh.

I would like to note for Mario's sake that I have no where near a strong scumread on this slot.

That said, I do have a scumread here currently.

Leaning Scum

(60%-75% Confidence)

Likely Scum

(76%-100% Confidence)

Spoiler: How to read this readslist

Players are placed in different sections based on my confidence in the read expressed as a percentage. A positive percentage indicates that I leans towards town on a player whereas a negative percentage indicates I lean towards scum on a player. Please note that the Null an Neutral sections contain both townreads and scumreads and you must look a the sign of the percentage in parenthesis to determine which way I lean.

Confidence ratings are rough estimates and are relative to one another. In addition, they tend to be scored on a logarithmic scale versus a linear scale; in other words, the difference between 0% and 30% tends to be greater than ther difference between 30% and 60%.

Also, this readslist is from a template I have, and it is from my perspective. There is no reason to scumread me just for including myself in my readslists as it is a stylistic issue versus an alignment indicative issue.

I didn't get to everyone, but most of the people not on here are prob. townleans.

[BigYoshiFan]

Putting yourself and Kelvin as confirmed and throwing everyone as neutral, I mean like.... doesn't really mean much.

[Kelvin Smith]

Putting yourself and Kelvin as confirmed and throwing everyone as neutral, I mean like.... doesn't really mean much.

You're not wrong. It's pretty fence-sitty. But at the same time, he doesn't have a huge amount to go off of. Our Day 1 lynch wasn't ideal (we can probably try to glean some info, if we analyze it, but we could use more). The Night 1 death was on a pretty town player, so there isn't much room for speculation there. Day 2 pretty much didn't exist and there's not anything to glean off of people sheeping a Cop claim. Night 2 was again a pretty clear town player, so there's still not anything to speculate on. We might be looking at a game of Vote Count Analysis and Follow the Cop in the coming Days unless we have some sort of breakthrough.

[BigYoshiFan]

I honestly wish I hadn't said that because my reads list is probably gonna look the same.

[MMM]

can it really just be as simple as MMM and ircher

Yes of course it's that simple, why bother letting people explain shit when you already know scum with as much confidence as a cop with an inspect on everyone?

[MMM]

No miller 2shot watcher claim
I am disappoint

MMM vote was largely on him going way too far into the nightkill for town

http://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/thr ... 2-PM-2-2-9 Have a read through day 1 and tell me NKA is a bad idea.

[BigYoshiFan]

MMM vote was largely on him going way too far into the nightkill for town

We talked about this before, but you know those moments where you stare at something for like... 30 minutes and you still don't understand what they're saying.

[Priscila]

Sorry I cannot read this with the color, it's very bright and it hurts my eyes.

Disclaimer before MM4 accuses me of changing reads on a whim: I read through some of the ISIOs while compiling this.

Spoiler: Reads

Confirmed Town

(From my perspective) (98%-100% Confidence)
Ircher (100%) - Role PM
Kelvin Smith (99%) - I've liked him throughout the game, and his Cop claim on scum cements his town status.

Likely Town

(85%-97% Confidence)

Leaning Town

(60%-84% Confidence)

Null

(0% - 30% Confidence; No/Very Weak Read)

Neutral

(31%-59% Confidence; Mixed Read)
Gamma (+41%) - 107 and 115 were the basis of my early townread here. Mainly because of the fact that his reads were consistent, and he responded pretty well to pressure. My "serious" vote early in the game on Gamma was mainly because of 235, but I later realized that post is really null-indicative. (I was being silly I guess...) I like his response to Mort in 259. The somewhat-a-contradiction between 876 and 893 pings a little bit, but in the end, it doesn't affect my read that much. Not sure why he claimed in 1608.... I guess he's just frustrated. (Not sure what to make of that....) Just the way he posts makes it hard to get a strong read here.

MMM (+38%) - 63 really has the wrong feel. 379 actually has good vibes to it. 610 makes his push on Transcend look really bad.... 699--why would you park your vote on someone who you are quite obviously biased against because of the insults he sent yor way? I honestly can't see how such is town-motivated. (Caveat: Anti-town, not scummy.) 1254 has a good, laidback feel to it. 1329 was a decent lynch pool at the time of the post (though I disagree with lynching Yoshi at the time.) 1658 is a good post (and not just because I'm biased.) This one is a mixed bag -- seems to alternate between good and bad posting....

Tarkus (+34%) - 356 feels like a good post. 953 is bad but not really alignment indicative. (The Fitz wagon was not a Policy Lynch.) A few good posts, not too many bad posts, but honestly, I kinda want more from this slot.

Paul/Grey/RayFrost (+31%) - Don't like 554; 5 pages in is more than enough to make a catch up post if you're that many pages behind. 562 is just weird. 670 really catches my attention as Grey tries to push a derp thing from Paul as a townslip. Posts like 594 are just annoying fluff. 615 would've been fine if there wasn't the "probably" at the end. 645 is a bad joke. 651 is fine I guess. Lots of Ray's early posts are excuses as to why he cannot catch up, but I'm not questioning their legitimacy right now. Disagree with 716, but it's probably the first town post I've really seen from the slot. Kinda like Ray's posting though...

Mario (-31%) - Kinda weird not to have scumreads by (post]288[/post]. The lack of any kind of scumreads by 692 is a bit alarming, but understandable -- most of the players in the game feel town. 922 is a good post. 1079 is kinda meh. 1153 is false as there was quite a few counters to Wheme. 1162 feels too dismissive. Alas, 1209 being true seems to be a thing on this site. 1592: "I have posted 78 times" -- Maybe 15 of them are actually useful? Number of posts doesn't matter quite as much as what's in it. Not sure what to make of the "It's not Ircher's fault that he is a Scumlord" comment. 1630 is a misrep of my stances. Nothing in 1649 show me stating that Penguin was mod!conf scum. It showed that I thought Penguin was the best lynch out of the lynches I considered viable. 1651 is biased misinterpretation. Not sure what made you think 1655 but to clarify, what you ruled out is more as to what I meant. (Perhaps my statement was ambiguous to some extent, but your flat out refusal to accept my explanation is obnoxious.) 1683 and 1690 are decent posts. 2010 is a good post (as well as the earlier vote.)

Delbird/Penguin (-42%) - 140 really doesn't read right. What's to say town cannot be confident? Like, I feel you need more than just that. Don't like 1293 and 1297's assertion that Mort's lack of analysis is alignment indicative. It COULD BE indicative, but is it indicative or is Penguin just trying to find a reason to scumread Mort? 1390 feels like he was trying to warp the argument to something else. Don't get what Penguin is suggesting in 1466 tbh.

I would like to note for Mario's sake that I have no where near a strong scumread on this slot.

That said, I do have a scumread here currently.

Leaning Scum

(60%-75% Confidence)

Likely Scum

(76%-100% Confidence)

Spoiler: How to read this readslist

Players are placed in different sections based on my confidence in the read expressed as a percentage. A positive percentage indicates that I leans towards town on a player whereas a negative percentage indicates I lean towards scum on a player. Please note that the Null an Neutral sections contain both townreads and scumreads and you must look a the sign of the percentage in parenthesis to determine which way I lean.

Confidence ratings are rough estimates and are relative to one another. In addition, they tend to be scored on a logarithmic scale versus a linear scale; in other words, the difference between 0% and 30% tends to be greater than ther difference between 30% and 60%.

Also, this readslist is from a template I have, and it is from my perspective. There is no reason to scumread me just for including myself in my readslists as it is a stylistic issue versus an alignment indicative issue.

I didn't get to everyone, but most of the people not on here are prob. townleans.

[Priscila]

Tier list

PenguinPower, TwoFace, Kelvin Smith, RayFrost
MarioManiac4
Ircher, BigYoshiFan, MMM
Gamma Emerald

vote: Gamma Emerald

[Priscila]

I will explain my reads in depth as I have time but for now - I do not feel that Gamma has been genuinely scumhunting this game and I think that he came out yesterday defending fitz very much like a partner would.

[RayFrost]

Priscila, can you explain to us how PenguinPower and myself are on the same level of townread as a confirmed town player (twoface, dead) and a player who's all but confirmed (kelvin smith)? Because I'm not seeing that.

[Kelvin Smith]

Tier list

PenguinPower, TwoFace, Kelvin Smith, RayFrost
MarioManiac4
Ircher, BigYoshiFan, MMM
Gamma Emerald

vote: Gamma Emerald

Yeah, I'm gonna need you to explain all of this.

[Priscila]

One comment: I think that the way that Titus replaced out was very sudden and strange and probably there was some infighting in the scum team, from this I expect that she was being bussed and was unhappy about that. I am looking at Ircher for the prime suspect here.

If I have to pick a team, it is fitz+Gamma+Ircher.

[Priscila]

Priscila, can you explain to us how PenguinPower and myself are on the same level of townread as a confirmed town player (twoface, dead) and a player who's all but confirmed (kelvin smith)? Because I'm not seeing that.

Sorry it was my readslist from last night, I forgot to change. That tier is my townreads.

[Kelvin Smith]

One comment: I think that the way that Titus replaced out was very sudden and strange and probably there was some infighting in the scum team, from this I expect that she was being bussed and was unhappy about that. I am looking at Ircher for the prime suspect here.

If I have to pick a team, it is fitz+Gamma+Ircher.

1. Please elaborate on why you think there was infighting.

2. Why is Ircher your prime suspect?

3. You don't have to pick a scum team. What is the purpose of naming one?

4. How did Gamma get in that mix? You have to explain that read too.

Priscila, can you explain to us how PenguinPower and myself are on the same level of townread as a confirmed town player (twoface, dead) and a player who's all but confirmed (kelvin smith)? Because I'm not seeing that.

Sorry it was my readslist from last night, I forgot to change. That tier is my townreads.

Yes, but why is that your tier list?

[Priscila]

Yes, I will explain as I have time! Please be patient

[Priscila]

3. You don't have to pick a scum team. What is the purpose of naming one?

At this point, it can be helpful to me to think about possible teams.

[Kelvin Smith]

Yes, I will explain as I have time! Please be patient

You take as much time as you want. Just be prepared to receive votes if you don't answer in a timely manner. If you make such an opportunistic-looking list, you've got to be prepared to back it up.

3. You don't have to pick a scum team. What is the purpose of naming one?

At this point, it can be helpful to me to think about possible teams.

That's not how you framed it though. You said it like somebody was requiring you to have a scum team.

I want to hear more of what Priscilla has to say (well, not me, personally, since I won't be here), but I feel like she's a good candidate right now, if her posting doesn't improve.

[BigYoshiFan]

VOTE: Priscila
Incentive to respond sooner. I'm basically sheeping Ray's suspicion in 2037 and the theory in 2039 is so radical it's suspicious to me. Also, Hikari's opinion that the reads list is opportunistic.

[Priscila]

I prefer to go over on the early game now, starting from RVS. I'll progress to later in the game and get current over the next day or two as I have time. I may jump back and forth a little to address thoughts on most recent events as I need to.

Spoiler:

VOTE: Titus I feel like if I don't vote you now you're gonna tunnel me again and I don't like being tunnelled

?

When I see this I don't know if this is Titus feeling nonplussed because it's her bud or because she is simply being awkward. This line is also somewhat awkward from MMM, not because the internal logic seems inconsistent but because coming out with such an elaborate reason for an RVS vote feels strange to me. It's followed up by this:

I'm deathly scared of you from that vengeful marathon game where you were the only one who thought I was scum and tunnelled me on it ok don't judge me

Which again feels slightly overdone and just a little awkward. If he was referring to normal game, perhaps it would be more fitting, but this seems strangely specific for the context. Still, this is a very minor thing.

They both are absent for the thread for a little after this, until a post by MMM:

Titus+Mort/BYF+GE for early scum team imo

Which feels a little disjointed to me - his vote on Titus was RVS and yet he is now genuinely suspecting her as scum? Maybe he is just making severe judgments from only a little content, but he seems a bit lurky and this post feels like an empty way to display scumhunting.

I feel slightly better about his immediately follow-up:

Not associating anyone that's just who I think is scummiest atm

Titus for reactions on me
Mort/BYF gives me TvS vibes
GE just feels scummy to me

Also it's the first 5 pages it's bound to be superficial

But then this again feels a little staged to me:

Mort feels more town to me rn tbh

I don't think being worried about being incriminated by scum it inherently scummy, however page 2 is just way too early for that. "Coincidentally", Titus pointed out 7 posts earlier that Mort was also just looking for things to attack... I just wonder whether actually got two scum right there or it's actually too good to be true.

This confidence here to have caught two scum at this point is bothering me a little, because unless this is a personality thing of overconfidence the assumption that he has caught two scum doesn't feel super villagery. I'll be noting it for the future. My unease somewhat lessened by the fact that I was also suspecting Titus and BYF at this point.

The two scum that I saw would be Yoshi and Titus. I don't think it was wrong for Mort to attack Yoshi when and how he did given that at that phase in the game you do have to do something to cause game progression, Titus seemed really quick to chainsaw and BYF picked up on Titus' defense quickly.

This is something that I like more from MMM, and being able to articulate his reasoning definitely assuages some of the ill feelings I was having up to this point.

Overall feelings from MMM coming out of RVS are a little bit of worry about his awkwardness and his lack of active engagement of other players, but I get enough of a look that he is sorting players despite not interacting with them to feel okay about him. I think his general approach to RVS is fairly villagery.

[Priscila]

Yes, I will explain as I have time! Please be patient

You take as much time as you want. Just be prepared to receive votes if you don't answer in a timely manner. If you make such an opportunistic-looking list, you've got to be prepared to back it up.

How is it opportunistic?

3. You don't have to pick a scum team. What is the purpose of naming one?

At this point, it can be helpful to me to think about possible teams.

That's not how you framed it though. You said it like somebody was requiring you to have a scum team.

I want to hear more of what Priscilla has to say (well, not me, personally, since I won't be here), but I feel like she's a good candidate right now, if her posting doesn't improve.

You misinterpreted me, I think. After a scum flip, at the later stage in the game, I like to think in terms of scumteams. There's really nothing more to that. It's a "gun to my head" thing.

[Priscila]

VOTE: Priscila
Incentive to respond sooner. I'm basically sheeping Ray's suspicion in 2037 and the theory in 2039 is so radical it's suspicious to me. Also, Hikari's opinion that the reads list is opportunistic.

Why do you think it is opportunistic? I don't really know what that suspicious is, so I can't comment.

[Priscila]

I am genuinely confused as to how I can come out with my first content as a tier list and a vote and people call that opportunistic?