Mini Normal 1963 - List Mod Mafia Game Over

[wavemode]

OK

[skitter30]

I guess the reason I don't see it as particularly relevant today is that it won't impact whether we lynch him today nor his behavior during the night phase. Pretty important tomorrow though.

No, but I thought there was a better than decent chance that that convo would change

scum's

behavior last night. Namely, I was nurturing a very small hope that it would make Chip into a bigger threat than Serg and that they'd kill him instead of Serg.

Sorry Chip. Thought it was the easiest way of resolving you.

So it all comes down to wavemode, seph, and implosion

Yep. I'm at implosion > wave =Seph right now.

I'd love to hear wave explain his last post when the others respond.

I need to go through two's ISO at some point.

[implosion]

Yep. I'm at implosion > wave =Seph right now.

\:

I still harbor some suspicion that Flubber could be scum doc. We certainly don't lynch him today, in case someone else is a scum doc which would basically completely clear him and skitter. But I am skeptical. With Two and Chip's flips, I think it's fairly likely scum have some power role, and a doctor (possibly limited) is the most automatic/natural thing to throw into a setup that has a gunsmith and a vigilante. I doubt scum have a full doctor but something like a 1-shot doctor would make sense for balance here I think. Of course this is all moot if I can't convince skitter to look again at Flubber but I digress.

I'm not convinced Flubber is town which means fmpov today isn't as simple as just blindly lynching either wave or seph. I'm going to do significant re-reads on both of them most likely tomorrow. I sort of completely forgot about this game today in favor of playing like 8 hours of breath of the wild >_>

Please hold me to at least starting the process of ISOing them tomorrow. If I don't say this I'm probably going to just forget again.

Skitter, is your read on me at this point mostly PoE? The main thing that you've repeatedly mentioned is that you just don't think I've strongly towntold. If so, can you list your reasons for seph-town and wave-town that you think are stronger reasons than you have for me being town? Partially because I know at least one of them has to be scum but also partially because I do think it might be only one of them and I need to reassess the things from each of them that I think have been significant towntells.

[Flubbernugget]

Where did scum doc come from

[skitter30]

In case people weren't aware, deadline is Friday night (for people in North America).

Also Wave, Serg, I hope your finals went well!

-----

skitter: cleared by gunsmith. Could still be scum doctor, but doctor + roleblocker would be quite a lot of power for scum to have here, and I still think she's town a priori anyway.

Here apparently.

I still harbor some suspicion that Flubber could be scum doc.

Are you still harboring some suspicion that I could be a scum doc?

I think it's fairly likely scum have some power role, and a doctor (possibly limited) is the most automatic/natural thing to throw into a setup that has a gunsmith and a vigilante

I was thinking BP, but then I remembered that gunsmiths get innos on scum docs, so I'll concede the point.

Like I said, it doesn't matter whether Chip is SK or not right now, so you should just pick someone to clear/incriminate. Preferably me but you already said you wouldn't so

Given the possibility of a scum doc, is asking to get investigated sketchy?

Of course this is all moot if I can't convince skitter to look again at Flubber but I digress.

I'm fairly confident that he's town tbh. He's my most confident townread beyond Serg, who isn't even so much a townread so much as a read based on his role (his play makes sense given his role, and the role is needed for balance reasons) But given that we're in MYLO again (and forever), I'll look at him again.

I'm not convinced Flubber is town which means fmpov today isn't as simple as just blindly lynching either wave or seph. I'm going to do significant re-reads on both of them most likely tomorrow.

Tbh this feels like you're trying to widen the lynchpool to include probable clears - like we aren't lynching flubber today.

Skitter, is your read on me at this point mostly PoE? The main thing that you've repeatedly mentioned is that you just don't think I've strongly towntold. If so, can you list your reasons for seph-town and wave-town that you think are stronger reasons than you have for me being town? Partially because I know at least one of them has to be scum but also partially because I do think it might be only one of them and I need to reassess the things from each of them that I think have been significant towntells.

Yeah pretty much. Flubber I'm fairly confident is town. Serg is town for balance reasons. Seph towntold a lot day 1. Wave towntold a lot day 3.

I'm going to have to go through their ISOs to point specifically why though, but this is def a thing I want to do anyways since I need to reevaluate both of them. And I'm on break now, so I have time for such things lol.

Implosion, do you prefer playing town or scum more? Can you link me to a recent town/scum game? Your wiki's out of date by several years lol.

[skitter30]

Hmm, OK, going through Two's ISO:

Spoiler:

Because I don't want to see town lynched?

We are a day into the game, there's a lot more left to happen day 1. Why the rush?

This is about Flubber. Indicating that he wants to stay off of a town wagon, or trying to keep the wagon off of a scumbuddy?

VOTE: wosi

As skitter noted, they waited until it felt safe to hop on my wagon before voting.

I also scum read chip butty. In 44 they remove their rvs vote, but in the subsequent post place a new rvs vote.

Sephiroph, I think you are town, but I don't like the activity precedent you are trying to set, and I'm being upfront now about probably not following it.

Not liking that there are things you might not be upfront about.

VOTE: Flubbernugget

But then he follows up with this. I dunno. I don't *think* this is a distancing vote tbh.

I'm not liking Sergtacos pushing the claiming scum thing...

VOTE: SergtacosVOTE:

Sorry I mean seph, not serg.

VOTE: Sephiroth

Confuses Serg and Seph. Would he confuse a scumbuddy here? I'm leaning towards no.

I thought the bad push on flub was more anti-town than then flub's idiot posting.

I thought the bad push on flub was more anti-town than then flub's idiot posting.

It wasn't a bad push, it was an early d1 pressure push. Please return to the noob queue until you get the concept.

I think flub is probably town so it's a bad push in my book.

Hmmm. A lot of posts about how Flubber is probably town. . . .

OK, that was largely useless. Most notable associative he seems to have with a living player is with flubber and how he keeps on saying Flubber is probably town.

And that he confuses Seph and Serg. I'm tending towards him *not* confusing a partner with a townie.

More later. I need to look at seph/imp/wave as well.

[skitter30]

Flub has no gun

You got that he doesn't have a gun, right? You didn't get 'no result?'

[implosion]

Spoiler: Responses to skitter

Are you still harboring some suspicion that I could be a scum doc?

You being town is an assumption that I'm willing to make at this point, essentially. It's MYLO today, and assuming Serg is dying tonight we can test that if we want to tomorrow by no-lynching and seeing if scum kills you. They can no-kill if they want to but etc. Even if there's a no-kill at that point I would be pretty astonished if you're scum here. You mentioned being better as town than as scum earlier and if you're scum you've been playing a really damn good game since you got gunsmith cleared, along with having been town in general before then. I can justify it more specifically if you want. With Flubber it's entirely possible that I'm just falling into confirmation bias. But I just feel like the game makes more sense if Flubber is scum.

Tbh this feels like you're trying to widen the lynchpool to include probable clears - like we aren't lynching flubber today.

Correct, we aren't lynching him today and I was very explicit in my agreement with not lynching him today. Flubber-scum is something I want to think about more deeply tomorrow in the event that we get a second goon flip today, essentially. If we get a scum power role flip, then I much more strongly doubt Flubber being scum.

Basically though there's no real need to put in more strong effort to sorting Flub unless we make it to tomorrow.

Implosion, do you prefer playing town or scum more? Can you link me to a recent town/scum game? Your wiki's out of date by several years lol.

ahaha i do have a wiki page don't i

I generally fairly strongly prefer town. this is almost certainly my best (most recent) scum meta although I have a couple other games in the past year (I didn't draw scum apart from a single traitor game for a period of about two years which ended like a year ago). this is a somewhat recent mini normal where I'm town, where I had a very good game, although the game was very toxic. this is another recentishish towngame that might be a bit more similar to this game in that I don't think I ever had any scumreads that I was sold on for long periods of time, but I was shot n1 so. I don't really have a ton of recent meta, and how much I enjoy a game is usually a function of how into a game I manage to get, and this is probably slightly based on alignment but is more based on random variables that I really haven't quite figured out yet. I sort of dread getting scum role PMs but I still enjoy the games. For instance in this scum game (also slightly relevant bc Nexus mod) I managed to get pretty into the game and do some really cheeky shit like claiming some weird joat though the cop actually misread his result on me and thought it was an inno so shrug.

I like to talk about my meta for no particular reason so I'm happy to discuss it more.

Given the possibility of a scum doc, is asking to get investigated sketchy?

I don't think it's especially sketchy per se in that it's something that I can still see town doing. I can also see a scum doc doing it for obvious reasons or a goon doing it just for the sake of facadery.

Spoiler: Some ISOing of Seph

Posts 62-65 are really interesting. I can fairly easily see it as distancing; Seph and TIAM are sort of making a moderately big fuss about RVS-ish things, without either actually committing to reading or pressuring the other. If Seph is town then it still makes sense from Seph's side; I guess the telling here thing should be TIAM's interactions, which look vaguely... annoyed. Meh. Probably nothing strong here.

Seph actually does commit to pressuring TIAM in 105, which I think doesn't look like a bus. If it's a bus it's a very good bus; Seph started fighting with TIAM earlier and here he would have had to make the decision to commit harder to a bus, which seems moderately unlikely on page 5. I also tend to think scum tend not to bus a ton early/aggressively in the meta but I don't know Seph's meta in particular. It'll be particularly telling that Seph is town if he keeps this pressure up, I think. This is annoyingly hard to easily check via ctrl f because tiam is alternately referred to as two and tiam. but alas.

175 hrrrrrm. Seph continues with the anti-TIAM rhetoric but winds up voting lalendra. This kind of looks like the most basic form of fos-a-buddy-vote-a-townie. And his next post he jumps ship to Serg? And then in the next post jumps back to Lalendra. 175 is really strange if Seph is town; he describes it as "hard to imagine 68 as coming from town" where 68 is the TIAM post he fossed, and all he talks about WRT lalendra is that she was coasting, yet he votes Lalendra over TIAM. He sort of backs off a little from the TIAM scumread for meta reasons when he jumps from Lalendra to Serg, but the Lalendra vote is really sketchy. It just screams scum trying to distance without potentially starting a wagon on a buddy.

He eventually jumps to Mulch which I can't really blame him for and his reasoning and train of thought still make sense. The way he handles mulch as a whole just reads town still. 763 for instance and the couple of posts before it looks like pissed off town.

Start of d2 TIAM is suddenly null-town... unless I missed something in there which I very well could have because I'm skimming pretty hard but eugh. The progression of this read from TIAM is scum to TIAM is still scum to TIAM is scum but meta makes the read weird to TIAM is null-town makes like no sense. And is super duper convenient if Seph is scum. The only real reason I can think of for this is basically PoE (ie maybe town-seph just had too many stronger scumreads at that point) but Seph also called PoE a form of policy and so that doesn't really seem likely?

He doesn't mention anything else until post-quickhammer when he instavotes which I can see from either side.

tl;dr though I skimmed quite a bit:

I still get a general vibe of town in a lot of places (some of which I didn't mention explicitly) but in general, Seph's thoughts on the game often mirror mine and I think his train of thought looks genuine. With a big exception of his TIAM read which really makes no sense. And which I think might be enough for me to just say I think Seph is scum. Most of his townish things are probably fakeable.

I'd like to hear from Seph about why his TIAM read took the course that it did with regards to both it softening seemingly so much after reading that meta, and with it eventually becoming null-town at the start of d2.

[Sergtacos]

I am using hotspot for this just to post, will have wifi tomorrow.

Finals went good but was very stressful.

i just went and check for no gun or no result and i got no gun

[Sergtacos]

will be more active tomorrow or some time this week, having wifi will be great lol

[Nexus]

Votecount 4.1:

Not voting (6)

- Sergtacos, implosion, skitter30, Flubbernugget, wavemode, Sephiroth

With 6 alive it takes 4 to lynch

Deadline is at 4pm GMT on Saturday 23rd December 2017 (expired on 2017-12-23 17:00:00)

Sephiroth has been prodded.

[Sephiroth]

I'm very sorry that I have become prod bait of late. I will post responses and my thoughts tonight. Just to end any suspense that wave might be in, no my role did not change overnight.

[wavemode]

I'm very sorry that I have become prod bait of late. I will post responses and my thoughts tonight. Just to end any suspense that wave might be in, no my role did not change overnight.

[wavemode]

Alright let me start by saying I'm odd-night Vanilla Cop. Night 1 I checked implosion and got Vanilla. Night 3 (

which was last night, the title of thread should read Day 4 Nex

) I investigated Sephiroth and got Not Vanilla.

If you noticed I started to back off my scumlean of implosion after night 1 and I more just wanted to understand some of his motivations. He made some surprising statements the morning of day 2 but I could see where his head was at so I didn't pursue it further. Then as the game started to whittle down I figured it was starting to be more and more reasonably likely he was goon, so looking around yesterday a seph/imp team with tiam roleblocker seemed as good a theory as any. But then TIAM flipped goon so now I figure it is unlikely the scumteam have two goons. Not impossible, but very strange balance-wise, I think.

As for seph, he's just fucking scum so yesterday I specifically waited for him to claim before claiming myself. If he had claimed a power role I would have just claimed vanilla cop outright but when he said VT I knew for a fact he was lying and I just wanted to catch him in it and now I have

[wavemode]

It also can't be, like, 1 mafia PR, 2 goons and a traitor. I didn't realize this before but traitors count for endgaming so the game would've indeed been over yesterday when we were 8 if they had that

[wavemode]

I actually started an elaborate VC crumb lol but I forgot about it and gave up at "VAN"

[skitter30]

OK, I think I can buy that.

so i figured that there probably was another investigative, prob a gunsmith, but I thought it was someone else.

This was wave btw, so I believe this.

Odd-night seems a tad off given that everyone else appears to be full night though, but overall, I'm buying this.

And Seph's behavior yesterday works a lot as a bus. It especially explains why he wasn't worried about MYLO - voting his partner kinda makes that fear irrelevant. And Wave's behavior day 3 never makes sense as a partner tbh.

Seph - I feel like I may have been pocketed by you tbh

And this has been bothering me a lot honestly, since early day 2, with the wossi kill. When I towntell this hard . . .. I kinda expect to be dead like ages ago, and me not being dead raises major red flags, and tells me that my reads should probably be turned upside down. Sometimes not being dead can be attributed to PRs who are a higher kill priority than me, but that didn't apply to this game night 1 or night 2.

{Seph}
{chip, dany}
{two, flubber}
{implosion}
{serg} -
{wicked} -
{Lalendra, wossi} -
{wave}
{Mulch}

Pretty sure this is why I wasn't dead night 1. Notice who's at the top of the list.

Wicked getting killed night 2 also was a bit weird, but makes sense now given the Two flip.

Wave, can you point out the beginning of your crumb?

[skitter30]

Oh, also, scum probably don't have a roleblocker. If they did, they'd presumably have rb'd one of Serg/Chip and killed the other, but Serg wasn't rb'd.

[wavemode]

I mean, it's not a good one

VT as well

And then we have RB, Backup RB and FBI. And vig I suppose, if anyone believes that

Either way town PR's seem somewhat sparse if TIAM is fakeclaiming...

Notwithstanding Chip's alignment, we likely have to lynch scum today, not SK

I'd be willing to vote Serg or Seph

If we lynch correct and the game is still on, Chip should shoot TwoInAMillion tonight

First letter of posts, V-A-N

Then I think once Serg hardclaimed I had no real way to keep it up subtly and still logically address everything that was going on

[skitter30]

So, to summarize:

Serg - gunsmith
Wave- odd night vanilla cop
Implosion - VT, checked by wave n1, who said he is vanilla
Seph - VT, checked by wave n3, who said he is not vanilla
me - VT, gunsmith cleared n1
flubber - VT, gunsmith cleared n3

Flips:

Chip - town vigi
Wossi - town FBI agent - functionally a named townie who gives a guilty to the gunsmith
Lalendra - roleblocker

Mulch, Dany, Wicked, - VT

Two - mafia goon.


So, if all the claimed PRs are true, we have:

Vigi/odd-night VC/Roleblocker/gunsmith/FBI Agent

5 VTs (me, mulch, dany, wicked, {one of implosion/flubber})

scum goon (1 or 2)
scum PR (1 or 2)

It gets messier if wave is lying, but I don't think he is.

[skitter30]

Hmmm, ok. I was hoping it was from earlier, but it at least pre-dates Serg's claim.

[wavemode]

Truthfully I didn't think my role was going to be useful this game at all

But together with a gunsmith it can hard clear people as not having a gun and also not being doctor or traitor

[skitter30]

Yeah the synergy with gunsmith is a bit tricky.

Like in this setup, the two of you basically get overlapping results in most scenarios. And neither of you get *alignment* based guilties alone. Together you might be able to, but only if you had happened to target the same person and they were like a VT or a goon.

If serg had gotten 'has a gun', and you got 'vanilla', between the two of you, you'd have found a goon.

If serg had gotten 'has a gun', and you got 'not-vanilla', between the two of you, you'd have found a gun-wielding PR, but you don't know the alignment. It could have been a theoretical scum roleblocker, or it could have been wossi, the FB agent.

If serg had gotten 'does not have a gun', and you got 'vanilla', you found a vanilla townie between the two of you.

If serg had gotten 'does not have a gun', and you got 'not vanilla', you'd have found a PR without a gun between the two of you. It could be a theoretical scum doc, or it could have been Lalendra, the rb.

So yeah. We don't have a PR who can get straight guilties or innos by themselves, but the two of you together can in limited scenarios. And of course you can out if someone lied about their role . . . .

[wavemode]

Fie then! why sit we musing,
Youth's sweet delight refusing?
Fa la la la la la la la la la la

la la la la la la...

[skitter30]

Spoiler: response to implosion

You mentioned being better as town than as scum earlier and if you're scum you've been playing a really damn good game since you got gunsmith cleared, along with having been town in general before then. I can justify it more specifically if you want

Nah I'm good. I have a good enough sense of the gamestate to know that I should be townread by like everyone, independent of serg's result. I was trying to probe at your Flubber read.

And yeah this is never my scumgame. I wish I could play scum like this, but as of right now, this isn't a thing I am capable of.

With Flubber it's entirely possible that I'm just falling into confirmation bias. But I just feel like the game makes more sense if Flubber is scum.

If you're scum, that's pretty much where you have to go though, since neither me nor Serg are getting lynched anytime soon, and you're pushing Seph. Assuming a 3-man scum team, your only two other options are wave and flubber.

How do you now feel about Flubber/seph?

I'd guess Flubber+wave off the top of my head but Flubber+seph wouldn't surprise me.

Correct, we aren't lynching him today and I was very explicit in my agreement with not lynching him today. Flubber-scum is something I want to think about more deeply tomorrow in the event that we get a second goon flip today, essentially. If we get a scum power role flip, then I much more strongly doubt Flubber being scum.

How does theory hold up given wave's claim? Namely, if we flip Seph and he's a scum PR, what does this say about Flubber and wave and yourself, given that Serg is gunsmith and I'm townread?

I have to read through your ISOs of those games you linked, so I'll get back to you about those.

Spoiler: @implosion, regarding the Seph ISO you started. @seph too now that I write more

62-65 - I don't think that this is necessarily faked. I don't think it either rules out partners or substantiates it.

Because I don't want to see town lynched?

What do you think about this? What do you think the significance of Two calling Flubber town is here?

105 - I don't think this looks like a bus either? It's just an off-hand mention of not liking one of Two's posts. I'm not really sure why you're characterizing this as a maybe-bus tbh. There's very little pressure on Two at all. It's a post about other people where he throws in a mention about not liking Two, but doesn't even directly follow up on this suspicion, even after Two responds to it.

175 - agree with you about this one. This is the first time he follows up on the Two suspicion, but doesn't actually interact with Two about it, and ends up voting Lalendra

Agree with you that it's odd that he has Two as nulltown at day2 daystart given that day1 progression.

(ie maybe town-seph just had too many stronger scumreads at that point)

I think this is unlikely:

Town: Skitter and Implosion
Townish: Flub and Wicked
Null w/ town lean: TIAM
Null w/ scum lean: Serg
Null/No Read: Dany, Chip, Wavemode.

He has no strong scumreads at ths point. Not sure why he isn't just in the null pile.

It's also odd that the two of you have mutually had strong townreads on each other throughout the game. I'm not sure why he has you as strong-town here tbh.

A lot of his ISO is pocket-y of me reading back, and is often adding weight to my pushes and agreeing with me :/

basically just adopts whatever Skitter's opinion

Like . . . this can be easily applied to how Seph reacted to my Mulch push. Like his whole Mulch push is just an amplification of my own.

I need to go through the rest of his ISO in greater depth at some point; right now just concentrating on the bits you highlighted and making sure I see most of the Seph/Two interactions through the start of day 2 and commenting on assorted other things that catch my eye as I go through this.

VOTE: skitter
not anymore

OMG I hate playing with you.

It seems a lot to me like you're just trolling the game at this point. I guess if your idea of playing is literally doing things at complete random, Skitters actual attempts to find scum must seem pretty 'tryhard'.

Seph is town BTW

So do you have a reason or did I miss Skitter post something to this effect?

:/

--through the end of day1. I'll look at the rest later.