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Post Post #1525 (ISO) » Thu May 10, 2018 7:11 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 1522, Tchill13 wrote:youre talking about bad play from a vig
No, I'm talking about numbers for a vig.

With a mislynch on D1, the vig has 8 targets to select from.
2 are scum, 6 are not.

Statistically speaking, the vig is more likely to hit town than scum.

Yes, admittedly, the inverse is true for the weak;
With a mislynch on D1, the weak neighborizer has only a 2/8 chance of hitting scum, so statistically speaking the neighborizer is more likely to get an innocent than a guilty.

You need only look at the results of the game to see that the vig DID shoot town and the neighborizer DID recruit town for this.
weak hitting town n1 when its the strongest possibilty, weak hitting town n2 when its still the strongest possibilty.
vig possibly holding and either eliminating mislynch oppurtunities for scum or actually killing half the scum
and rolecop possibly getting a guilty on the role blocker, a scum sided role.
Frankly, if scum with two methods of shutting power roles down (the nightkill + the roleblock) let themselves get in the situation where weak gets two results or vig gets a shot on scum or rolecop gets a guilty on scum.

They probably deserve to lose.

This was almost a micro in size; the scum could not afford to hit VTs and leave the power roles unchecked, yet that's exactly what they ended up doing. Sure, they roleblocked the vig N1, and later nightkilled said vig...but at the time they nightkilled said vig, said vig was a VT thanks to the previous roleblock--unconfirmed and without a shot, thus both mislynchable (well theoretically at least) AND not a threat via night actions. In fact, killing the vig confirmed the existence of the scum roleblocker, a HUGE tactical mistake.
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Post Post #1526 (ISO) » Thu May 10, 2018 7:13 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 1523, Tchill13 wrote:the game was obviously centered around a swingy role.
I mean, I can't argue with that. :P

It was, but it was the mods' choice to use that role. Our job was in part to make the game a little less reliant on that one role.
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Post Post #1527 (ISO) » Thu May 10, 2018 7:24 pm

Post by Tchill13 »

this is slowly evolving into a game play discussion lol.

my personal belief is the game should be won in the day phase by either alignment. the night phase is made to intentionally help town, i believe thats what was said, due to roles given to town to help balance BUT scum is expected to dominate night play. Scum doesn't know who the PR's are. So the fact that a lot of balance is due to scum dominating a small percentage of town is kind of odd to me. Maybhe its because i haven't been around too long. A lot of what you stated about scum "deserving" to lose could easily happen due to pure luck.

basically i feel like the "pure luck" is more likely to happen to town in THIS scenario. I see your point and i appreciate your insight in this scenario regardless of my position.

i could discuss game play all day but i do feel like thats below your pay grade so to speak so i won't get into that here.
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Post Post #1528 (ISO) » Fri May 11, 2018 8:00 am

Post by mastina »

In post 1527, Tchill13 wrote:my personal belief is the game should be won in the day phase by either alignment.
Definitely by town, but the job of scum with their dayplay is just as much to influence nightplay as townplay--by which, I mean. Scum should be able to, using
dayplay
, manipulate town PRs into using their actions in pro-scum ways rather than pro-town ways.

Make the rolecop get useless results, make the vig shoot town, LET the vig shoot town (roleblocking the vig, while it stops the vig from being conftown, is probably less of an asset than just letting the vig shoot town), preventing the weak neighborizer from targeting scum or even better cause the weak neighborizer to target scum N1 with NO BREADCRUMBS (or breadcrumbs leading to town).

I think you can understand what I'm getting at; the job of scum with their dayplay is to augment their night play, whereas inversely, the job of town with their nightplay is to augment their dayplay. Yes, vice-versa applies to some extent as well, but the primary directive of a town player is to first win by dayplay and then by nightplay; the primary directive of scum is to control the results of the game through nightplay (primarily, the nightkill) and only then manipulate dayplay.
In post 1527, Tchill13 wrote: the night phase is made to intentionally help town
Actually, the night phase is where scum are strongest--the power of the scum nightkill should NEVER be underestimated. The nightkill is singlehandedly the reason why mountainous games which are theoretically balanced pragmatically end up as scumsided; there's a good reason why one of the main ways to make mountainous games be balanced is simply removing the scum nightkill. Because the scum can kill the players they feel are most critical to leading the town to victory, and with said players absent, the town is put into a state more favorable to the scum.

That's why I said that if the scum let the town control the result of the night in spite of having a full roleblocker and their nightkill, they probably deserve to lose. Because during the night, they should absolutely NOT be letting themselves be outplayed by town, because night is where scum are naturally at their strongest.

You can be the best manipulative scum player in the world by dayplay--but because dayplay is the realm of town, you can still being that master manipulator lose by dismal nightplay, because while strong dayplay influences scum victories, it is not enough to hand them victory in of itself. (Most of the time, anyway.) The nightkill is singlehandedly the most important tool scum have; misusing it can and will cost scum the game. Utilizing it to its maximum utility, inversely, gives scum a near-guaranteed win.

(Incidentally, this is also one reason why dead townies in dead PTs rant about how obvious the scum are--of course the scum are obvious to the dead townies, that's why they're dead in the first place! Because the scum didn't want them alive to point out the obviousness of it; they wanted to leave only the townies too "stupid" to see it alive, more or less.)

Power roles
are
made to deliberately help town--they serve more or less as the counter to the scum's two main advantages. The nightkill first and foremost as scum's strongest weapon, and being informed as scum's second-strongest weapon. (The scum, knowing who is town, who is scum, and by their roles having some insight into the nature of the setup, have a better ability to manipulate the gamestate to their favor using this information alone. When you pair that ability to manipulate off of knowledge WITH said nightkill, it makes scum able to dominate a game unchallenged unless town PRs are in place which can provide a counter.)

Primarily, town's roles can be sorted into three categories, each serving as a counter to one of the scum's weapons. Investigative roles serve as a counter to the scum holding more information, by giving town a way to artificially boost the amount of information they possess. This game doubled up on these, at the cost of not only giving up protectives but also increasing the risk of losing information.

Killstopper roles (which protectives are a subset of) serve as a counter to the scum nightkill, by preventing the scum from eliminating the town player serving as the greatest obstacle to a scum win. This game had none.

And town killing roles serve as a source of an extra town-controlled death, to prevent the scum from having total control over who lives and who dies. Them being in the hand of a single player means there's no direct interference scum can give. Scum, simply by not bussing, can make lynching scum MUCH more difficult, but in contrast, scum can't so easily stop a vig bullet from shooting them. (And in Normals, even under the new guidelines, any killing role also doubles as a type of informative role because it is public knowledge that scum cannot hold extra killing roles.)

These are what the town's roles do to counter the scum's innate inherent natural advantages. The town is given boosts--significant boosts. But these boosts, if balance is at the level it should be at, don't inherently overwhelmingly give the town the advantage, so much as they do neuter the natural scum advantage.

The idea of town power roles is thus, the "necessary evil" of reducing the power scum naturally hold. Because scum do, by default, hold power.

The problem is that the more power you introduce, the greater the swing, so the harder it is to get an exact calculation. The night is then a delicate balance, so you have to take educated guesses on what the level of power each side has actually translates to. (And make no mistake, it's always an educated guess. Sometimes, we guess wrong. Other times, we guess that it's close enough, but close enough still ends up at being like 60% in that one side does overall hold a slight but not significant edge over the other. But it's always a guess. Never an exact science.)
In post 1527, Tchill13 wrote:basically i feel like the "pure luck" is more likely to happen to town in THIS scenario.
The more swingy the game, the more luck plays a part in the outcome, yes. That I can't deny, and with this game being very high in swing, it was very high in luck for the town/unluckiness for the scum.

However, I stand by the statistics that, statistically speaking, the town is actually less likely to luck out--I maintain that, by the odds, the town is most likely to have night action results which provide a minor boost but don't break the game in favor of the town. As far as luck in night actions go, the town got about as lucky as it could: the neighborizer neighborized one of the other two PRs, and the vig shooting said PR was prevented from shooting said PR, and then the neighborizer told said PR their target which landed on scum, giving town a guilty. You CAN find results better than that for the town, but not by much; the town got really, really, REALLY lucky, about as lucky as is possible without being the MOST lucky.

Like, in terms of luck. The outcome of this game is in the top-5 town-luck outcomes I'd estimate. Yes there are outcomes more lucky for the town, but not very many. This game had dozens, hundreds of possible iterations which could have played out, and of them only the smallest fraction favored town more than the outcome of this game did.

By the numbers, the vig is likely to shoot town. And did!
By the numbers, the rolecop is unlikely to produce a useful result. It can clear the weak neighborizer, it can clear the vig, it can catch the scum, but it can be roleblocked and it gets NAI results on half the players in the game (the 5 VTs) and critically above all else it doesn't
know
this going in so it has no idea what to aim for, how likely it is to get an innocent or a guilty.

By the numbers, the weak neighborizer is unlikely to produce a definitive guilty, can produce a FALSE guilty (imagine a vig shot going through, the weak neighborizer targeting town, and the scum nightkill going through, with one of the vig/scum targeting the neighborizer--OOPS LOOKS LIKE TOWN MISLYNCHES THE WEAK NEIGHBORIZER TARGET), can be prevented from giving a result beit roleblock, vig killing target, scum killing target, vig killing neighborizer, or scum killing neighborizer, and on top of that even if the neighborizer gets two innocents, by the time this happens the game is likely in lylo...a time where investigation results are likely to be doubted.

(Keep in mind that even if the vig holsters, with 10, D3 gives you six alive, mylo; with a vig shot, that's five alive, lylo. The neighborizer being a NEIGHBORIZER would be proven, but them being WEAK would not be proven, so there's room to lynch the neighborizer and/or a neighborized player if scum work up the paranoia to push that angle.)

When you look at it from that perspective. The vig likely to shoot town, the rolecop only having ~50% chance of producing a useful result and not knowing they even
can
produce a useful result (one of the things which weakens rolecops is that rolecops work with imperfect setup knowledge and thus don't know what they should be doing; you can't assume a rolecop operates with perfect setup knowledge when designing/reviewing a game because they never do), the neighborizer having multiple ways to fail including the ability to
falsely condemn an innocent town player
(THIS IS A MASSIVE ONE) and the ability for the game to end up in mylo on D2 when the town has basically no information at all.

The fact that most of this ended up not playing out is, statistically speaking. Quite improbable. The outcome of this game was not one of the more likely ones. It's not the luckiest town outcome, but it is still an incredibly lucky town outcome. One which I maintain wasn't as likely as you think it was.
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Post Post #1529 (ISO) » Fri May 11, 2018 9:35 am

Post by Tchill13 »

I'm just glad I understand the basis for your thought process now. Setup is primarily a percentage thing. These set percentages are based on average usage of a PR. I disagree with using "average" usage because I believe average usage is poor usage on some if not most roles especially the vig. Of course that's not the case IN A PERFECT WORLD but this isn't a perfect world and I understand mods are only working with what they've got.

My last question is at what point was the backup ninja introduced and why did you feel the need to mess with scums knowledge of the setup when all scum had was a role blocker? Which statistically speaking had less than half a chance of hitting a PR and even if they did hit a PR had a decent chance of actually helping town in that scenario (such as keeping vig from killing town, keeping weak role from dying due to not letting an action on scum go through.)?
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Post Post #1530 (ISO) » Fri May 11, 2018 9:46 am

Post by the worst »

In post 1528, mastina wrote:Like, in terms of luck. The outcome of this game is in the top-5 town-luck outcomes I'd estimate. Yes there are outcomes more lucky for the town, but not very many. This game had dozens, hundreds of possible iterations which could have played out, and of them only the smallest fraction favored town more than the outcome of this game did.
Totally agreed here. Letting Hop take his kill n1 was always wise--he was comfortable with both scum slots and from memory ONLY HAD TOWN in his vigpool.... The fact we even had a d1 vig claim was insane and allowed me to get my hard inno as a role cop (which is statistically improbable anyway)

Lovebird targeting me the same night as I spewed my townclear was probably the second best luck for the two of us n1 (save Lovebird getting a separate clear on Una/Arc but I digress)...but as far as our win goes, GTH it was actually the rb/vig situation which won us the game.

Or maybe that's just my ego talking



I'd actually say n1 was the third luckiest possible outcome for town, but otherwise I think this time we had a really fair fight in LyLo. I really enjoyed logicking to the death against you Tchill.

Would be pretty cool to see this run again in a world where what Mastina described went down. D1 ml = 7v2 then a n1 vig kill on the weak neighbouriser could have it down to 5v3 with a soft guilty. or...of course the d2 4v2 mylo situation...



pedit: that is a rly good question. It did enable a viable tracker claim ig?
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Post Post #1531 (ISO) » Fri May 11, 2018 9:53 am

Post by Tchill13 »

Scum didn't even get to play out what they'd been working towards due to an illegal claim enabled by setup.

Why would scum tchill/havo set up the scenario they did in blocking the vig, killing the vig that town cleared us, low info n1 kill then presenting this to a low activity towny to frame a una/worst scum team... I do the night actions the same way every time because in the scenario where we actually get to use the reasoning behind them scum probably win but we didn't even get there.

Lylo was wrecked because of the "backup ninja" modifier. The modifier that had no reason being in the game imo. Sure you can say "should have checked before fake claiming" and yes I agree but I want to know of there's any way you can justify having that in the game in the first place.
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Post Post #1532 (ISO) » Fri May 11, 2018 9:54 am

Post by Tchill13 »

Ig?
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Post Post #1533 (ISO) » Fri May 11, 2018 10:01 am

Post by the worst »

I guess*
who's scum? i haven't read up yet but like, it's me
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Post Post #1534 (ISO) » Fri May 11, 2018 10:09 am

Post by Tchill13 »

I mean I definitely still had fun with this like I said you're a welcome addition to people ik.

I'm definitely learning a lot from this back and forth.

I feel that the 2 main train of thoughts in setup is:

Town PRs are balanced off usage (for better or worse) and I get there's not really a better way to do this but I feel it's for the worse due to the fact if usage is your main balancing tool and that usage is poor then there's only room to improve for the town that's using it.

Scum should be able to hunt town PRs fairly easily. Which I do not know how to feel about this.

Can not under state the appreciation I have for mastina to take the time to explain some of these things to a person that doesn't necessarily agree with her. Hopefully she doesn't feel like she's banging her head against a wall.
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Post Post #1535 (ISO) » Fri May 11, 2018 10:12 am

Post by the worst »

Right back at you, hope we get to play again soon. :D

I think this kind of setup where small % NAs can blow the game right open is just controversial by nature.
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Post Post #1536 (ISO) » Fri May 11, 2018 12:21 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 1529, Tchill13 wrote:My last question is at what point was the backup ninja introduced and why did you feel the need to mess with scums knowledge of the setup when all scum had was a role blocker?
Honestly you'd have to ask the reviewers/mods because I gave initial feedback on the original setup, and then the next time I checked into the review, the finalized setup was already posted (the setup took less than a page to be finalized so that was a fairly quick process); I didn't really pay attention to the in-between steps because the in-between steps were null-and-void as they weren't current.

When I review a setup, I tend to give feedback on only the most recent idea and refer back to the original idea--basically, because I'm looking to preserve the moderator's original vision. (Looking at the steps in-between usually is a waste of time then.) The only time I look at intermediary setups is when said moderator's vision changes into being one of those intermediary setups, at which point THAT becomes my reference to use in place of the original setup, if that makes sense.

I felt the setup's most critical piece, the essential core of the mod vision, was the 2x Weak Neighborizer, so everything revolved around it, referring to what the mods wanted it to do with the setup proposed, and I thought it was
more or less
loosely in line with what they were going for, just with better balance provided.

That's a personal reviewing method tho. You can kinda sorta think of it as similar to the 60% rule: "eh, close enough to striking the balance between 'what they originally wanted' and 'what is a balanced setup'".

In other words. I don't actually know this because the change was made during a time I wasn't giving input. The results OF the change looked to be in the right area, so I signed off on it without caring how the changes got to be at the point they did.
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Post Post #1537 (ISO) » Fri May 11, 2018 12:28 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 1534, Tchill13 wrote:Hopefully she doesn't feel like she's banging her head against a wall.
Quite the opposite, I worry I come off as being preachy and that my spews are too personal-opinionated (and come across as trying to win an argument) when neither is my goal. I try to be informative, objective, and accurate in my explanations to let players know, "this is how the process usually works and why it works that way", but I never know if I get it right.

Explaining processes to let people know how they work, why they work that way, so that they can walk away hopefully feeling both a little more at ease with the process and also enriching their perspectives so that they can explore things from an angle they hadn't thought about before, skills which with luck transfer into future games. If I do any of that, then I can call it a success.
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Post Post #1538 (ISO) » Fri May 11, 2018 12:31 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 1535, the worst wrote:I think this kind of setup where small % NAs can blow the game right open is just controversial by nature.
No argument there. :P

It's something I love in themes because really themes are fun, but in Normals I kinda loathe it because I know that postgame there's gonna be hell to pay as I'm put in the awkward position of trying to explain why the hell I passed it knowing the outcome they're angry about could have happened. :P
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Post Post #1539 (ISO) » Fri May 11, 2018 1:19 pm

Post by Tchill13 »

I definitely have a better understanding of the thought process now.

It doesn't matter if I agree and for the most part the issues I have are very picky.

Thanks for the time mastina.
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Post Post #1540 (ISO) » Wed May 16, 2018 3:00 pm

Post by Scummies »

Image

Congratulations to the victors!


The game has drawn to a close, the jig is up! Some of you have lost, but others have won!

Take a few days, think about the game. Recognize what was best in your teammates and opponents, and consider nominating them for a Scummy! Players and mods in this game may be eligible for one of the following awards:


BODY OF WORK AWARDS

Best Mafia Catcher
: Also known as the Paragon of Mafia Hunters, this award is given to the single town player who, across all of their games for the year, exhibited the best ability for nailing those dirty scumbags and bringing the bad guys to justice while playing as a pro-town role.
Rising Star
: This award is given to the player that is a rising star in the game of mafia, showing great promise to join the elite echelon of mafia players. This award replaces both the Best Newbie award and Most Improved Player awards, and judges may consider elements of both those previous awards in deciding this award.
Excellent Moderation
: Also known as the “The Modfather” Award. This award is given to the moderator who, over the course of the past year, exemplifies the best qualities of a moderator in the operation of the game, including but not limited to quality and frequency of vote counts, organization of the game, dealing with issues that arise, keeping players active, and so forth. Judges may consider how challenging the games a moderator ran were, but they shall not penalize a moderator for only running more basic games. A mod must run at least 3 games to completion in the calendar year to be considered for this award.
SINGLE GAME - PLAYER

Most Cunning Manipulator
: Also known as the “Don Corleone” Award. Awarded to the player who has the strongest single game performance as mafia. In rare cases, where a player feels an entire scumteam gelled to create a strong cohesive scum performance, multiple members of a team may be nominated.
Best Performance Third Party
: Also known as the “Hannibal Lecter” Award. Awarded to the player or players that performed the most impressively in winning their game as a third party.
Most Memorable Event
: Also known as the “Kodak Moment” Award. Awarded to the player or players who were involved in the most memorable event in a game of mafia. Fake claims, funny claims, awesome exchanges, etc. may all be considered for this award
SINGLE GAME - MODERATOR

Best Setup
: Also known as the “Rube Goldberg” Award. Given to the moderator who designed the best setup. Judges may consider the roles involved in a game, how those roles interacted, how balanced a setup was, whether it furthered any particular theme, how the setup interacts with a mechanic, or any other factors the judges deem relevant. This award is distinct, however, from the “Best Mechanic” award in that it does not consider how good or bad any change to the basic way a Mafia game is played.
Best Flavor Text
: Also known as the “Paperback Writer” Award. Given to the moderator who wrote the most compelling flavor text. Judges should consider the flavor text of all parts of the game, including Role PMs and Day/Night scenes. Where appropriate, Judges may consider how well the flavor works with the announced theme.
Best Mechanic/Mutation
: Also known as the "Mad Scientist” Award. Given to the moderator who figured out the most compelling way to change the basic mechanics of the game of mafia, and/or created the most compelling new role or adaptation to increase player enjoyment. Judges shall consider both the basic idea behind the game as well as how well it was executed, and the uniqueness and quality of the role/adaptation.
SITE AWARDS

Game of the Year
: Also known as the “Player’s Choice” Award. This award is given to the moderator of a game. It is given in recognition of the overall excellence of a game. The Game of the Year award is a "catch all" award for the best overall game throughout the entire year, considering all aspects of the game from moderator quality, to the excellent design and composition of the game, to the performance and cohesion of the playerlist. A Game of the Year is meant to be the game that we can all point to later and say "This game was the best game the site could offer that year in terms of Design, Playerlist, and moderating capability." This is a PUBLIC VOTE. [/color]

The
2018 Scummies thread
is located here.
You may nominate a player or moderator for an award using this form.
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Post Post #1541 (ISO) » Tue Jan 08, 2019 9:01 pm

Post by implosion »

If you want to nominate this game or any people in it (moderator or players) for a scummy, please do!
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