Mini Normal 2030: Day 8


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Post Post #3275 (ISO) » Sun Sep 23, 2018 11:46 am

Post by Mister Rogers »

@Almost: I played in a game where I caught 3 scum in a row but I ALMOST missed the 4th one because he BUSSED both his buddies and completely threw me off the track. Only a game anomaly allowed me to catch my oversight and lynch the last scum. If I was scum in this position when the chips were down, I WOULD bus a buddy if it meant allowing me to live on further days.
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Post Post #3276 (ISO) » Sun Sep 23, 2018 11:54 am

Post by Almost50 »

Well, that's a difference in playstyles I think. I wouldn't fancy bussing a partner after one has been lynched so early myself. then again it's probably bc I'm used to being (a) an early investigation target, and (b) and early NK if town. This means if there's an investigative I wouldn't want to be the last survivour of my team, and the very fact that I'm still alive on -say- D4 makes people suspect me.

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Post Post #3277 (ISO) » Sun Sep 23, 2018 1:29 pm

Post by Mister Rogers »

I mean I would only bus if my partner was drawing down heat on us. That's why I asked about NM and if he would be a bus target for a highly skilled player?
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Post Post #3278 (ISO) » Sun Sep 23, 2018 1:30 pm

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You know I can't fault FL for wanting leave our "GS" alive, just in case.

Vote: Performer


This guy is clearly faking a catchup and game relevancy.
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Post Post #3279 (ISO) » Sun Sep 23, 2018 1:33 pm

Post by Mister Rogers »

I am not allowed to post quotes from my Q/T which means I cannot post links that Krazy made. He has stated that Profii is scum (lol of course not) and that Gamma is town (prob not?).
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Post Post #3280 (ISO) » Sun Sep 23, 2018 2:17 pm

Post by Light Ethos »

I am completely lost when it comes to the setup-speculations.
A separate question that I should have asked at the beginning of the game when Parrot posted it: What does negative utility mean? Does it mean a power role that has a downside to it for balance purposes?
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Post Post #3281 (ISO) » Sun Sep 23, 2018 2:56 pm

Post by Light Ethos »

In post 3255, Almost50 wrote:Sasha was one of my strongest suspects after the Crimson flip has been confirmed, so while I regret the death of TPR I really really can't blame Krazy for shooting there.

I also say it's very unlikely (from my own PoV) that Rogers is scum. I don't see scum going out of there way to defend Crimson that hard.
This is where I am too on Mister Rogers.
In post 3255, Almost50 wrote:@Rogers: Check tw's read lists (he posted 2 of them). In both he had Sasha as a STRONG TOWN READ. That's not scum!tw. Scum!tw would have gone with the flow, and Sasha was by no means a global TR
I can buy this, but for me that's the same reasoning behind why I read Saudade as town for pushing Sashaddin. The difference between Saudade/Performer and the worst/Not_Mafia is that the first two actually put effort into looking for scum.
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Post Post #3282 (ISO) » Sun Sep 23, 2018 3:04 pm

Post by Almost50 »

In post 3280, Light Ethos wrote:I am completely lost when it comes to the setup-speculations.
A separate question that I should have asked at the beginning of the game when Parrot posted it: What does negative utility mean? Does it mean a power role that has a downside to it for balance purposes?
Yes. Millers give fake guilties to Cops, and thus are a negative utility. PGO's could potentially kill TPRs and thus are a negative utility. Ascetic is also a negative utility bc the PR gets nothing on them which is a waste of an investigative/informative shot.. and so on.

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Post Post #3283 (ISO) » Sun Sep 23, 2018 3:12 pm

Post by Almost50 »

In post 3281, Light Ethos wrote:I can buy this, but for me that's the same reasoning behind why I read Saudade as town for pushing Sashaddin. The difference between Saudade/Performer and the worst/Not_Mafia is that the first two actually put effort into looking for scum.
2 things:

1- How can you tell between someone who "actually put an effort into something" vs someone who "actually put an effort into
faking
something"?

2- I know tw's scum play. He wants to keep most of his (mis)lynching options open just in case. He also doesn't like draw attention, so he goes with the flow mostly, and would only do that (TR someone who is not globally TR'd) to someone like me (because I know him and he knows I won't be lynched anyway, so he deals with that by TRing me by day and shooting me at night).

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Post Post #3284 (ISO) » Sun Sep 23, 2018 3:14 pm

Post by Naomi-Tan »

Eh.. all the speculation makes it hard to get a grasp on things. I guess I should take time in a bit and look back over the interactions with crimision and see if there are any patterns.
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Post Post #3285 (ISO) » Sun Sep 23, 2018 3:16 pm

Post by Almost50 »

Also, at least one of the two remaining scum was not high on Krazy's TRs. If I was scum here with -say- FL and knew Krazy was TRing us both we would have definitely let him shoot again on N2 (the more he takes them down for us the better, and there's always a chance we can set him up as a Serial Killer if push comes to shove, but I think him shooting someone else narrows down the pool for us to find that Town protective role FK is assuming is out there).

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Post Post #3286 (ISO) » Sun Sep 23, 2018 4:13 pm

Post by Mister Rogers »

@Performer: Who do we lynch today and why (reasons)?

@NM: Who are your scum candidates for today and what are the reasons behind your decisions concerning them?

@Gamma: If you had the ability to lynch your top scum suspects today, who would they be and what is the most compelling reason for voting each of them?
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Post Post #3287 (ISO) » Sun Sep 23, 2018 4:24 pm

Post by Light Ethos »

Answering your question above, I can't tell the difference between those things without additional information, but as a tiebreaker, I'd value a player who looks to care more about more than themself.
I will buy your meta read and Flavor Leaf's meta read on the worst.
In post 3285, Almost50 wrote:there's always a chance we can set him up as a Serial Killer
This isn't possible in 13 player games.
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Post Post #3288 (ISO) » Sun Sep 23, 2018 4:49 pm

Post by Flavor Leaf »

In post 3286, Mister Rogers wrote:@Performer: Who do we lynch today and why (reasons)?

@NM: Who are your scum candidates for today and what are the reasons behind your decisions concerning them?

@Gamma: If you had the ability to lynch your top scum suspects today, who would they be and what is the most compelling reason for voting each of them?

Lol, this is basically the same question but reworded.


Also, early game bussing is a decent scumthing. I generally go back and look at people’s early pushes after they flip scum. You’d be surprised how many Scummates RVS their teammates.
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Post Post #3289 (ISO) » Sun Sep 23, 2018 4:51 pm

Post by Flavor Leaf »

I also agree with Krazy being shot over a mason likely means someone was afraid of getting shot.

To be fair, i feel I was a likely protection candidate, though.
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Post Post #3290 (ISO) » Sun Sep 23, 2018 4:53 pm

Post by Flavor Leaf »

Performer and Light were town read by him.

I feel Profii/Rogers were the two that were lookin to get shot.

Performer/Profii is my best guess.
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Post Post #3291 (ISO) » Sun Sep 23, 2018 4:59 pm

Post by Almost50 »

In post 3289, Flavor Leaf wrote:To be fair, i feel I was a likely protection candidate, though.
We don't
know
there's a protective though. I mean, sure.. scum may also suspect we might have one, and that made it easy for them not to shoot you, but why Krazy over N_M is my question. I would have probably shot the GS over the Vig if I was scum.

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Post Post #3292 (ISO) » Sun Sep 23, 2018 4:59 pm

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In post 3291, Almost50 wrote:
In post 3289, Flavor Leaf wrote:To be fair, i feel I was a likely protection candidate, though.
We don't
know
there's a protective though. I mean, sure.. scum may also suspect we might have one, and that made it easy for them not to shoot you, but why Krazy over N_M is my question. I would have probably shot the GS over the Vig if I was scum.
Fair.

I like to assume there’s a protective for my own safety. Creates WIFOM for scum.
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Post Post #3293 (ISO) » Sun Sep 23, 2018 5:01 pm

Post by Flavor Leaf »

In post 3291, Almost50 wrote:
In post 3289, Flavor Leaf wrote:To be fair, i feel I was a likely protection candidate, though.
We don't
know
there's a protective though. I mean, sure.. scum may also suspect we might have one, and that made it easy for them not to shoot you, but why Krazy over N_M is my question. I would have probably shot the GS over the Vig if I was scum.
If they have a doctor, they definitely don’t want to shoot the gunsmith. Especially if their non doctor isn’t likely to be checked and their doctor is.

Considering Crimson claimed doctor, i wouldn’t be surprised if he claimed one of his partner’s roles.
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Post Post #3294 (ISO) » Sun Sep 23, 2018 5:30 pm

Post by Almost50 »

In post 3293, Flavor Leaf wrote:
In post 3291, Almost50 wrote:
In post 3289, Flavor Leaf wrote:To be fair, i feel I was a likely protection candidate, though.
We don't
know
there's a protective though. I mean, sure.. scum may also suspect we might have one, and that made it easy for them not to shoot you, but why Krazy over N_M is my question. I would have probably shot the GS over the Vig if I was scum.
If they have a doctor, they definitely don’t want to shoot the gunsmith. Especially if their non doctor isn’t likely to be checked and their doctor is.

Considering Crimson claimed doctor, i wouldn’t be surprised if he claimed one of his partner’s roles.
I mean, I wouldn't be surprised either. I did win a scum game once by claiming JK when I did have a JK in my team. In fact, that was the game when people started taking my scum game seriously afterwards.

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Post Post #3295 (ISO) » Sun Sep 23, 2018 5:33 pm

Post by Gamma Emerald »

In post 3286, Mister Rogers wrote:@Performer: Who do we lynch today and why (reasons)?

@NM: Who are your scum candidates for today and what are the reasons behind your decisions concerning them?

@Gamma: If you had the ability to lynch your top scum suspects today, who would they be and what is the most compelling reason for voting each of them?
My first selection would be Not_Mafia because the gunsmith role has a lot more sensible function as a scum role (can locate the cop and vigilante) versus as town (it has two false guilties, without a sensible role for town in the setup design like other times I’ve seen it, including in a Boonskiies-designed game, which implicates FL a little); my other selection would be Performer (as I still see the lack of conviction Saudade had as scummy, plus we know at least one of the claims that made him replacing out as scum odd-looking was by scum).
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Post Post #3296 (ISO) » Sun Sep 23, 2018 6:12 pm

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If we -knew- there was a doc I’d say let the doc protect off masons tonight - lose 1 - confirm the other, also meaning scum don’t accidentally shoot the doc. That also means we get

Another GS result
A proven inno tomorrow
If a doc exists we keep 1 inno for 2 more lynch phases minimum - taking us from 10 players to 6 - potentially 2v4 with an inno and a doc claim


There becomes a paranoia point later where Creature and FL are unconfirmed and we potentially can’t find scum

This post will make FL want to lynch me but I’m not bothered
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Post Post #3297 (ISO) » Sun Sep 23, 2018 6:23 pm

Post by Light Ethos »

In post 3296, profii wrote:There becomes a paranoia point later where Creature and FL are unconfirmed and we potentially can’t find scum
I say we ride the Mason claim to the ground and just take the chance that we get beat by a good play. I think it's in our best interest to let that WIFOM play out with us voting away from both of them.
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Post Post #3298 (ISO) » Sun Sep 23, 2018 6:26 pm

Post by Gamma Emerald »

Idea:
If we let NM live he has to agree to check one of (FL, Creature). I don’t see any way this doesn’t confirm the alignments of FL and Creature.
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Post Post #3299 (ISO) » Sun Sep 23, 2018 6:28 pm

Post by profii »

In post 3297, Light Ethos wrote:
In post 3296, profii wrote:There becomes a paranoia point later where Creature and FL are unconfirmed and we potentially can’t find scum
I say we ride the Mason claim to the ground and just take the chance that we get beat by a good play. I think it's in our best interest to let that WIFOM play out with us voting away from both of them.
Yeah my stance is I don’t think there is a (town) doc at all so we do this
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