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Post Post #975  (ISO)  » Mon Jan 07, 2019 6:56 pm



Vote count 5.1

not voting (5): mastina, Nikk, Egix96, xwing, Lapsa

with 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch. day 5 ends january 18th (2019) at 12:20 central US time; in (expired on 2019-01-18 12:20:00)


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Post Post #976  (ISO)  » Mon Jan 07, 2019 7:43 pm

Still haven't read the game from the start since need desktop, time, etc. not available until tomorrow, but.
Have been keeping current on the current posting.

My concern is this.
Stop me anywhere if I'm wrong.

It's 5p lylo. If a town player votes town, we lose.
Scum are incentivized to not vote scum and instead vote town. They CAN bus, but it would delay victory and give the town extra info.

The two most widely townread players are Nikk and myself.

If you assume that there are 2 scum in the remaining 3, then if we continue with the train of thought, they'd be incentivized to not bus. But the pool is themselves and one townie, so they must maintain suspicion of each other, while also pushing the townie.

Okay, follow that?

Now.

My concern here is.
While Egix and Xwing have shown suspicion of each other, they are BOTH pushing Lapsa HARDER than they are pushing each other. And Nikk is suspicious of Lapsa.

I can't help but feel that they're trying to push Nikk into voting Lapsa, so that they can hammer without first needing to bus.
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Post Post #977  (ISO)  » Mon Jan 07, 2019 7:47 pm

Oh, hmm. I was wrong. Egix favors Nikk as scum.
Never mind then, move along. No problem.
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Post Post #978  (ISO)  » Mon Jan 07, 2019 9:24 pm

In post 971, xwing wrote:
In post 970, Nikk wrote:I'm down to vote Lapsa but will wait for mastina's read because why rush it.

why is lapsa scummy?
what do you think of the other slots?

Actions d1 including the weird counterwagonish try on you earrrly in the game.

I listed out all but Mast, who I tl at this point

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Post Post #979  (ISO)  » Mon Jan 07, 2019 9:27 pm

In post 611, mastina wrote:[snip]
Good news, I can give you a succinct cliffnote summary!
VOTE: Robert
HURT: xwing.

Both scum bussed, and these two by far stood out as the most likely candidates.

how did you arrive at the conclusion that both scum bussed tgp?

In post 866, mastina wrote:[snip]
A)The real question is: how come the wagon changed from Robert--who WAS CLOSE TO BEING LYNCHED YESTERDAY (Robert got to either L-2 or maybe even L-1, and then, randomly, for no reason whatsoever, that wagon reversed onto Wagonomics IN SPITE OF ME SAYING THAT I HAD WAGON AS MY STRONGEST TOWNREAD FOR GOOD REASON)--onto Wagonomics?

B)And for that matter...how come you correctly note that the Flubber nightkill is yet more evidence of Robert as scum...yet instead vote profii?

C)It's posts like this which are why xwing is my top pick for Robert's scumbuddy. This reluctance to outright bus has been present the whole game.

added ABC for ease..
A) that's the correct question..and you will see that profii played a big part here..he had a big 1v1 with wagonomics, and during all these time, i was away..hence my annoyance as i wasn't able to weigh in..in fact, if you town read wagonomics, you should town read me and my annoyance as it was your exact reaction, and i reacted before you..also i never rescinded my town read of wagonomics, though i was unsure coz the slot was meme-y..

B) flubber flubber..i dont know how he used his PR really..he spit out two names and both were wrong..anyway at this point i was okay with EITHER profii (coz of A) or robert (coz of flubber), and i chose profii coz i had a stronger scum lean on profii..also, flubber was not clear on what night actions he took..cant even see where he breadcrumbed to neighborize trivium..

C) im not reluctant to bus anyone simply coz im not scum..if you're not conf!biased you'll take it as town!me being open-minded and weighing all options, simply coz i am uninformed..and to add to that, robert was town!!! -_-"

In post 869, mastina wrote:
In post 769, xwing wrote:
In post 756, Trivium wrote:I'm trying to think of a reason you shouldn't believe me xwing, I really am, and I can't find any. Unless there's a mafia roleblocker who blocked flubber's neighborizing *and* maf killed flub the same night while somehow knowing flubber was both neighborizer and was going to neighborize me tonight... I mean, I'm town.
i havent encountered this role before so im not so sure how it plays..
im thinking scum can also claim they were neighborized then someone would cc then it would be a 1v1..
but then it would be 1 town for 1 scum so it's anti-scum play..
okay that makes sense i didnt think it through much..sorry mr. armless..
@profii: processing.........gimme time..
And yet more reasons why I feel xwing is Robert's scumbuddy.

xwing was looking for any angle to cast shade on the conftown to make them not be conftown. (In a very either-MathBlade-or-Titus-I-forget-which-of-the-two-used-this-tacticesque way.) When the angle pursued was shut down, xwing was forced to back down, but this was not a town train to be going down in the first place.

this is simply wrong, coz i just dont know what neighborizer does or is..
and i was not forced to back track, nobody even defended trivium against me except trivium himself..
trivium himself has me town! -_-"
if you look at me as town, it's me digesting new info and correctly concluding that it's stupid for scum to claim this at this point..i dont see this one being "forced to back down"..i mean..how weak-ass is it to "back down" after one post? -_-"
also see egix's post , the part on trivium..how come you attack me but not egix, who's basically saying the same thing as i am??

In post 976, mastina wrote:[snip]
My concern is this.
Stop me anywhere if I'm wrong.
[snip]

sure..you're wrong about me,coz i'm town..
now im gonna throw a question back at you..how strong/confident are you of your town!nikk read? coz if you are very sure, by PoE, it's egix-lapsa scum team..
if you're scum, this game is a lost for town..
let's vote lapsa first..
if not, then anyone convince me why not..

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Post Post #980  (ISO)  » Tue Jan 08, 2019 6:31 am

Finally getting around to my planned reread... sorry about having procrastinated on this for so long, but here we are.

7 - Makes Nikk/xwing team look less likely.

15, 16 - Mutual distancing? "Dialing in on newbie to try for easy lynch. Scum." = TMI?

24 - Looks good for xwing. To me this looks like scum!TGP moving his distancing vote off his buddy. FoS on Dough (mastina slot) is also noteworthy.

29 - Not the best look.

60 - xwing voting TGP here also looks good for him.

71 - Did we remember this? Seems not...

81, 82 - More wise words from LW?

89 - Good look for xwing IF Lapsa is scum.

112, 115 - Ditto from previous note.

119, 120 - The hypocrisy from Lapsa is real.

154, 155 - Oh, well now. If Nikk had voted Lapsa first, this would have looked a lot worse for him.

165 - Based on my prior experience with Doughboy, I'm inclined to think that this is simply him being wrong rather than avoiding voting his buddy.

194, 195 - Distancing from TGP? Notice that Nikk doesn't seem fully committed to it.

200 - Seems kinda waffly.

226 - Could this be a possible reason why Sasha was killed?

227, 228 - Lapsa claims not to understand Nikk voting him, but Lapsa chooses to vote xwing? He still does FoS Nikk though.

241 - I wouldn't read too much into this, TGP probably knew he was on course to be lynched so he would have been careful not to spew. He does scumlean both Nikk and Lapsa though, which is interesting.

244 - Notice that xwing is listed as a scumread rather than a scumlean. He does townlean nearly all the known townies so far though. Could that mean the Doughboy slot is town as well? IDK.

All right, that's pages 1-10 done. I need a break.
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Post Post #981  (ISO)  » Tue Jan 08, 2019 7:18 am

In post 980, Egix96 wrote:227, 228 - Lapsa claims not to understand Nikk voting him, but Lapsa chooses to vote xwing? He still does FoS Nikk though.


In post 87, xwing wrote:@lapsa, what do you think about gp and nikk slots? thoughts on the current game state?


^ this one pissed me off

@egx what do you think about gp and nikk slots?
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Post Post #982  (ISO)  » Tue Jan 08, 2019 8:33 am

In post 981, Lapsa wrote:@egx what do you think about gp and nikk slots?

I think the interaction between them in posts 15+16 could easily be SvS.

Reread part 2 starting now.
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Post Post #983  (ISO)  » Tue Jan 08, 2019 9:52 am

Reread continued...

259 - I don't think this spews Doughboy either way, it's not a lot to go on.

280 - Ah, so the interaction went on a bit further. Looks a bit better for DB.

306 - BOOM there it is! "I still would like to put pressure on lapsa next day phase" - does this mean he was always planning to bus/distance?

316 - One on, one off?

322 - The shade-throwing right there...

333 - Another good read Sasha might have had?

344 - Response to Sasha seems towny IMO.

372 - Strange question to ask.

380 - "this active recruiting of people onto lapsa or away from TGP will tell alot if TGP flips scum" Hmm, I don't really think it did.

385 - Sasha being killed before Trivium seems to point to Lapsa being scum because of this. Then again, NKA is full of WIFOM so it's not definitive.

402 - "But if TGP flips scum I don't think Lapsa is scum" Bear in mind, this was before profii and Robert were both flipped.

423 - Distancing?

430 - "Xwing is looking better in my eyes. Looking less like a fake and more earnest town" I think this might be spewing xwing town, but I can't be 100% sure of that.

447 - I don't like the look of this post, it feels like scum!Nikk setting up for a profii mislynch.

518 - Gah, we totally fell for this.

540 - Yay, more antispew.

592 - Final lynch wagon: town, town, town, town??, scum??, town, town.

TLDR: Doughboy (later replaced by mastina) and xwing both look good from day 1 interactions. I still think the remaining scums are Nikk and Lapsa.
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Post Post #984  (ISO)  » Tue Jan 08, 2019 9:54 am

Hoo boy that was a lot to get through.
Not gonna bother with D2 onward, it's too much work.
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Post Post #985  (ISO)  » Tue Jan 08, 2019 3:15 pm

In post 978, Nikk wrote:
In post 971, xwing wrote:
In post 970, Nikk wrote:I'm down to vote Lapsa but will wait for mastina's read because why rush it.

why is lapsa scummy?
what do you think of the other slots?

Actions d1 including the weird counterwagonish try on you earrrly in the game.

I listed out all but Mast, who I tl at this point

can you be specific? what particular actions did you personally find scummy?
why do you tr mastina?
you gotta give more than that..

In post 981, Lapsa wrote:
In post 980, Egix96 wrote:227, 228 - Lapsa claims not to understand Nikk voting him, but Lapsa chooses to vote xwing? He still does FoS Nikk though.


In post 87, xwing wrote:@lapsa, what do you think about gp and nikk slots? thoughts on the current game state?


^ this one pissed me off

@egx what do you think about gp and nikk slots?

why does it piss you off?

can we vote lapsa now? mastina are you still not done with your reread? im expecting heaps from you, no pressure..
also, apparently lolwagons town reads both nikk (based on 1v1 and mind meld) and egix (based on gut and history)..sooooo..crap..

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Post Post #986  (ISO)  » Tue Jan 08, 2019 3:25 pm

In post 119, LolWagons wrote:
In post 115, Lapsa wrote:
In post 78, profii wrote:I dont feel as great about xwing though, dunno why


you would be surprised how often overabundance of lame questions indicates scum

In post 120, LolWagons wrote:
In post 118, Lapsa wrote:@dough do you think xwing is a cop?

shading + role fishing in back to back posts..
never responds to my question on what he thinks of gp and nikk slots in post ..he quoted it himself just now in post so im sure he saw it..plus re-read post 87 to see how he wanted to lynch trivium w/o casting the vote himself..

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Post Post #987  (ISO)  » Tue Jan 08, 2019 3:45 pm

In post 985, xwing wrote:why does it piss you off?


cause it's year two thousand and fuck off
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Post Post #988  (ISO)  » Tue Jan 08, 2019 4:02 pm

uhhh huh what?

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Post Post #989  (ISO)  » Tue Jan 08, 2019 5:15 pm



In post 983, Egix96 wrote:322 - The shade-throwing right there...


no

In post 245, Robert2424 wrote:Lapsa, you would be the bottom of the list, you remind me of another player who doesn't really add anything to the game. From odd explanations to sometimes out right ignoring some of my questions, I have to lean scum with you. though if you somehow flip town, you've proven to be a distraction. I can't really find a post that feels town either. Hince why my vote is here, plus you were late on the no substance wagon as I like to call it. However, do I think you should be lynched D1? Its a hard question.


^ even golden gets rob's townread

In post 246, Lapsa wrote:I have answered all your questions


In post 248, Lapsa wrote:@robert how is post 17 late?


In post 261, Robert2424 wrote:I don't really have a problem other then your attitude and some of the stuff you've said so far.

I don't hate you or anything, just don't like your posts from what I've seen so far from me.

Its day 1, so in the event that neither of us are lynched, day 1 will likely amount to just reads and feels, unless there is a lynch.


In post 322, Lapsa wrote:admits to have no case yet still voting me. are you stuck in RVS?
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Post Post #990  (ISO)  » Tue Jan 08, 2019 9:42 pm

uhhh lapsa, not helping..
it would be helpful if you just straight up answered questions directed at you, and scumhunt..
if you're town i feel like you're not helping your case atm..

who's the two scum for you?

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Post Post #991  (ISO)  » Tue Jan 08, 2019 11:58 pm

that's the thing your thick skull seems to be unable to grasp

when you put me up to the wall like that - everything changes

to not throw the game - I'm bound to survive first and foremost

an objective near indistinguishable from scum objective
(they can afford to lose one)

NOT giving out my reads becomes a tool to stall the game giving me a chance to explain myself
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Post Post #992  (ISO)  » Wed Jan 09, 2019 12:17 am

In post 979, xwing wrote:how did you arrive at the conclusion that both scum bussed tgp?
At the time?
Experience.
In Mini Normals, on D1, if there is a scum lynch, then about 80-90% of the time, there is at least one scum who bussed to achieve the result.
There is about a 60-75% chance of it being two scum bussing.
These odds decrease if there is a STRONG counterwagon (we're talking a minimum of 4 votes AT END OF DAY, preferably being even higher at like 5 or 6) by like 10-20%, because if there's a strong, STRONG counterwagon to the scum lynch, it's possible that the scum were fighting it.
These odds increase if there's a complete and utter LACK of a counterwagon (we're talking, nobody at 3 or above votes) by 5-10%.

Since there was no counterwagon, instantly that means scum bussing.

Of course. That was my original entrance reasoning.

Since then?

You need only look at one simple fact.
In post 592, schadd_ wrote:TheGoldenParadox (7): Trivium, LolWagons, Egix96, xwing, Nikk, profii, Robert2424
Robert2424 (2): Doughboy, Flubbernugget
Lapsa (1): Sashaddin
profii (1): TheGoldenParadox
Egix96 (1): Wagonomics
not voting (1): Lapsa
I am Doughboy's slot. I know it to be town.

The only living player other than myself off the D1 scum lynch is Lapsa--meaning that even if Lapsa is scum, there's at least one scum ON the wagon, meaning there is at least one scum who bussed.

And if Lapsa is town, then regardless of who the scum would be in Nikk/Egix/xwing, we'd have two scum bussing.

Now obviously, this only works from my perspective because I know my slot is town and others do not, but you can see where I'm coming from. I 100% know for an absolute FACT one scum bussed--if one scum bussed, why not two?

In post 979, xwing wrote:also see egix's post , the part on trivium..how come you attack me but not egix, who's basically saying the same thing as i am??
Uh, I don't see how that was the same? "Not 100% conftown but out of POE for now" was a perfectly reasonable stance to hold; that wasn't the stance I saw from you.

In post 979, xwing wrote:how strong/confident are you of your town!nikk read?
Not strong enough to bet the game on it--quite the opposite, in fact; Nikk's a weak townread. He doesn't look like scum, but I'm well aware that the reasons I'm townreading him are largely stupid stuff that I'm putting a lot of weight into.

In post 985, xwing wrote:can we vote lapsa now? mastina are you still not done with your reread? im expecting heaps from you, no pressure.
So am I--by that, I mean. I am expecting to be in the position of gamesolving because of my status. Except in spite of my promise to read today, I can't.

I'm suffering from extreme fatigue today--I don't know why I am this tired. Logically, there shouldn't be any reason. I slept half of the day! I didn't work today at all! I've basically had the most stress-free, relaxing, calming, soothing day humanly possible, where I've gotten the amount of rest necessary to do what I want.

Except.

In spite of that. It's still there. I'm frustrated and even baffled by it; by all analysis and such, I SHOULD be in perfect health both mentally and physically (not to mention, emotionally) right now. Yet I'm tired to the point where I want to sleep. And my high standards are precisely why that's prevented me from reading today.

I could read today, in spite of being tired. But I wouldn't process the information I read, and because processing and analyzing the information is what I most need to do, then I need to put it off until the fatigue goes away. In spite of me working tomorrow, I think I'll be recovered tomorrow, so I'll delay for one day. Apologies for not finishing it today like I originally planned. Hope the 24 hour wait is worth it.
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Post Post #993  (ISO)  » Wed Jan 09, 2019 12:23 am

While we're quoting that votecount, by the way:
In post 592, schadd_ wrote:TheGoldenParadox (7): Trivium, LolWagons, Egix96, xwing, Nikk, profii, Robert2424
Robert2424 (2): Doughboy, Flubbernugget
Lapsa (1): Sashaddin
profii (1): TheGoldenParadox
Egix96 (1): Wagonomics
not voting (1): Lapsa
Another thing which makes me suspect two scum on the wagon?

Look at where the living three players are in the wagon: right. smack. dab. the middle of it. It started with two town, and ended with two town. The middle three slots on the other hand...

Basic mafia theory is all you need to know to know that's the bus zone. The zone where, if a scum player is going to go for a bus, they decide to join the wagon. Where they aren't pushing hard enough for it to be a hard-bus, but aren't joining late enough for it to be the last nail in their scumbuddy's coffin.
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Post Post #994  (ISO)  » Wed Jan 09, 2019 3:22 am

In post 990, xwing wrote:uhhh lapsa, not helping..
it would be helpful if you just straight up answered questions directed at you, and scumhunt..
if you're town i feel like you're not helping your case atm..

who's the two scum for you?

If you think Lapsa is scum, why ask him to scumhunt?
Now I'm starting to get vibes that xwing is scum instead of Lapsa and is pushing for the mislynch he needs to win.
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Post Post #995  (ISO)  » Wed Jan 09, 2019 2:03 pm

In post 994, Egix96 wrote:
In post 990, xwing wrote:uhhh lapsa, not helping..
it would be helpful if you just straight up answered questions directed at you, and scumhunt..
if you're town i feel like you're not helping your case atm..

who's the two scum for you?

If you think Lapsa is scum, why ask him to scumhunt?
Now I'm starting to get vibes that xwing is scum instead of Lapsa and is pushing for the mislynch he needs to win.

simply coz im not sure who among you 3 are scum..the one who best scum hunts would most likely be town..
this is lazy ass reasoning, egix..anything substantial you'd like to add on the table?
lapsa, your "survival schit" looks even more like scum than town..
stop using mastina cover and AtoE and say your piece..
nikk, your absence is extremely suspicious..

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Post Post #996  (ISO)  » Wed Jan 09, 2019 2:15 pm

In post 175, schadd_ wrote:Vote count 1.2

TheGoldenParadox (4): Trivium, LolWagons, Egix96, xwing
xwing (4): TheGoldenParadox, Lapsa, Flubbernugget, profii
Lapsa (2): Robert2424, Nikk
Wagonomics (1): Sashaddin
Robert2424 (1): Doughboy
Nikk (1): Wagonomics

not voting (0):


@mastina: hope you get well soon..
and not to be pushy, but we're all waiting on you..
if deadline looms nearer we'll be forced to vote anyway..
also at the above junction, does not xwing wagon qualify as a counter wagon? (colored fmpov)
interesting to note that nikk is on lapsa..not sure what to think of this..
also, lapsa is second on me..how often do scum vote after each other?

im not closing my mind on egix-nikk scum team..

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Post Post #997  (ISO)  » Wed Jan 09, 2019 2:25 pm

sorry mastina, saw you meant counterwagon at the end of the day..
fmpov, one scum DEFINITELY bussed as well, so im pretty sure AT LEAST one of egix/nikk is scum..
if lapsa is town, then egix-nikk is scum team for sure..

@lapsa: this is why im so adamant for you to speak out..if you're town we have solved this already..but you're not helping..even if you're strongly being scum read, no one is voting at this juncture, so it's counter productive to hold your piece..

same with everyone here..speak now or forever hold your peace..

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Post Post #998  (ISO)  » Wed Jan 09, 2019 5:03 pm

In post 995, xwing wrote:
In post 994, Egix96 wrote:
In post 990, xwing wrote:uhhh lapsa, not helping..
it would be helpful if you just straight up answered questions directed at you, and scumhunt..
if you're town i feel like you're not helping your case atm..

who's the two scum for you?

If you think Lapsa is scum, why ask him to scumhunt?
Now I'm starting to get vibes that xwing is scum instead of Lapsa and is pushing for the mislynch he needs to win.

simply coz im not sure who among you 3 are scum..the one who best scum hunts would most likely be town..
this is lazy ass reasoning, egix..anything substantial you'd like to add on the table?
lapsa, your "survival schit" looks even more like scum than town..
stop using mastina cover and AtoE and say your piece..
nikk, your absence is extremely suspicious..

There's also the fact that mastina pointed out the possibility of TGP being bussed by both of his buddies, which FMPOV makes the scumteam you+Nikk in that case.
I've already put forward my case for a Nikk+Lapsa scumteam. To be fair it is based on a D1 reread and confbias is hard to avoid, but at this point I'm mainly waiting for Nikk to go ahead and vote, as I believe he said he was going to.

And yes, I also find his "absence" to be suspicious, as you put it.
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Post Post #999  (ISO)  » Wed Jan 09, 2019 6:20 pm

what makes me scummy, egix, aside from mastina's VCA?
why is his absence in double quotes? what are you implying?

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