Mini Normal 2153: Post-game

[Bellaphant]

You seem quite cross about me re-assesing the game state one day before potential lylo

[Bellaphant]

'if RFA flips green, lynch Isis, if red, lynch Bella' - Una
'im not lining up lynches' - also Una

[UnaBombaH]

If I'm scum with Isis we just vote RFs here, why would I be bothering to dive in hoops' iso or do wagon analysis?

Because that gets one or both of you lynched tomorrow, and from there the game falls apart.
For the theoretical scum!bella+Isis that is.
So what you need, is to keep your distance for one more day, but start to soften your other reads to justify the winning lynch tomorrow.
Which is also why I pointed it out - you reacting this strongly when N_M (one of the "wildcards") has voted for Isis and gera has just mentioned their soft scumread on Isis again makes me reach for my tinfoil.

You can't see all my quotes and say I'm making up connections. Try and find them for other people.

You also have to KNOW that most of those connections, and ESPECIALLY Hooplas

VERY

soft push on you..they all came out after they had claimed their bullshit.
I've said it before, and I'll say it again.
Anything and everything she said after that claim has been WIFOM.
She KNEW she wasn't getting away with that claim, and she made it as a gambit, obviously.
To buy some time, to lay down some chips.
You should know this.

You seem quite cross about me re-assesing the game state one day before potential lylo

No, I'm trying to understand your thought process here.

[UnaBombaH]

'if RFA flips green, lynch Isis, if red, lynch Bella' - Una
'im not lining up lynches' - also Una

Gee, I wonder why I'd say that.

Una what is your preferred exile order? I'm trying to think about something

Bella also

Preferred order. Theoretical.
If you think we can discuss this game out without considering the future days at this point, then I suggest we just pick a number and vote.

Now you are just trying to misrep me, and I hate it.

[UnaBombaH]

You also pulled shit out of context in your wall, and I'm again here wondering whether you did it on purpose, or by accident.

[Bellaphant]

I'm saying it was a chip, though. I don't understand why you are saying we are disagreeing?

I'm really not trying to misrep you. I just don't understand why me having second thoughts is this much of an issue for you.

You seemed really comfy before. And uncomfy now. That feels backwards to me in terms of town wanting a win.

P-edit. I've said go back and find other interpretations. I didn't say it was everything. Its the things that stuck out to me.

[UnaBombaH]

I'm really not trying to misrep you. I just don't understand why me having second thoughts is this much of an issue for you.

But you are misrepping me. Or how do you want to present that lates one where I literally quoted and answered Isis?
And you having second thoughts wouldn't be an issue to me, but there are two factors here.
1) the timing an manner of how you started to turn your read on me
2) the fact that you are actually voting me - as in - UnaB should be the lynch today over everyone else who are currently still alive.

Everything about your play D4 so far feels very unnatural to me.

[Bellaphant]

Tbf, Una, if I was scum I'd be sitting back here..I think just writing the 'wild cards' as town also isn't optimal play.


The game feels really uncertain right now - im nervous because I'm town and I want to win. We've quick hammered town day 2/3 days so far...

[UnaBombaH]

..which is why I'm not laying down a vote.
It's not that I'm afraid of scum quickly piling on and throwing the game.
It's because I don't currently trust the rest of the town enough to NOT pile on.

[UnaBombaH]

Tbf, Una, if I was scum I'd be sitting back here..I think just writing the 'wild cards' as town also isn't optimal play.

You also know this is always WIFOM. If I was scum here, I would've had days and days to "prepare" for this.
I'd know Hoopla is going to go down, and I'd know all the nightkills that are going to happen.

Instead I'm out here freaking out because I don't feel like I can trust Isis, and now I can't trust your judgement, so..

And I'm not writing both of the "wild cards" off as town.
I'm just not sure if it's realistic that Hoopla has been creating this game-state for N_M and gera, and now they are just sitting back?
Una/Isis/Bella/bob/RfS all town?
Hard for me to believe.
Max one scum in gera/N_M, or alternatively Hoopla is a mastermind who managed to put us into a situation where both of her buddies are off the radar and the rest of us are at each others throats.

[UnaBombaH]

I'm off to bed now.
I need to reread the latest pages with a fresh pair of eyes.
I guess my own annoyance is affecting my read on bella currently.

[Bellaphant]

Hoops being a mastermind is what worries me.

Didn't notice you were a euro, same, night.

[Bellaphant]

Don't say you hadn't considered what like..a town me and town Isis and scum anyone does at lylo.

If your town I don't know hie you get to lylo. I think you said even here you were surprised not to be nk.this thought progresses but I'm sleepy.

I want others opinions. And for bob to come back and make sense

[Isis]

To be fair I specifically asked Una about his exile order, so it would be natural that he would respond with a lineup?

[Isis]

Bella do you think Replacement for Sujimichi is scum?

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Day 4's Fifth Votecount

UnaBombaH (1): Bellaphant
Replacement for Sujimichi (1): Isis
Isis (1): Not_Mafia
Bellaphant (0):
Not_Mafia (0):
bob3141 (0):
geraintm (0):

Not Voting (4): bob3141, Replacement for Sujimichi, UnaBombaH, geraintm

With 7 voters, 4 votes are required to execute.

Day 4 will end without an execution in (expired on 2020-08-16 05:45:00).

[Bellaphant]

To be fair I specifically asked Una about his exile order, so it would be natural that he would respond with a lineup?

That's fair, but I feel like noone is engaging with my secondary point here - it doesn't seem like Una really wants to elim those slots because of anything Scummy/isn't making a push, is just kind of like 'yeah, we can just elim these people'.

In regards to suji, I'm not 100% sold on the alingments of either bob or suji, but I think it's t v s in some way.

Bob's contributiona to the thread is minimal, and when he does bring something up it's kind of nonsense/isn't really engaging with the thread around him. Wagon analysis feels like it condemns him and I'm bothered that noone else seems to be concerned that we keep eliming Bob's counter wagons which flip town. People have said different things about him playing to his town meta

Replacement hasn't done a huge amount, but I liked their bob push. There are very occasional flashes of towniness, but I'm aware that their push on bob I like 90% of why I don't want them elimed.

If it's not you (and I really want Una to engage with the possibility that it isn't me -or- you and look at some of the wagons again, if he's town) then I feel it has to be one of bob/RFs and one of NM/Gera. And that doesn't quite feel like the solve

That's a lot of words to say RFs isn't in my town reads (he's town if and only if bob flips scum) but I want a wider conversation first.

[bob3141]

will be on later today

[Bellaphant]

We are on 2000 posts and RFs, bob, NM and Gera have less than 400 posts between them. Its really hard to read that.

@bob, I asked you to reword that question to me, when you are back.

[geraintm]

going through all the votes I can find that had at least 4 on them, and going to pick out anything interesting I can find

Day1

Bob - Dunn, Emp/not mafia/Klick/not science

3 of these turned into town, all dead and only one left alive in not_mafia

Hoopla's wagon had 6 on it twice

Bella, Isis, Klick/pokens, not science and Una and then switched from bob to Bella

of those on the wagons, Bella, Isis and Una are still alive and everyone else was town

popo was lynched. 2 townies in Dunn and Klick/porkens who later turned up dead. obv Hoopla was on the lynch
the other lynchers were Bella, Isis, Replacement and Una

Bella looks bad on day one. they were on the Galron, Hoopla and Popo wagons
Una looks bad too. On My wagon, the hoopla and popo wagon

Day 2

There was a bella wagon with 5 votes, 3 of whom are townies (me, Porkens and not science) and then Not Mafia and Isis

there was a replacement wagon that had Galron (town) and Hoople and then Bob and Not-mafia

these were at the same time

the eventual Galron wagon was

Porkens and not science (town)
Hoopla
not_mafia, isis and una

day 3

the hoopla wagon had

me
hoopla
isia, bella and una -

they killed night 3 porkens which is kinda weird. they had lynched galron and popo, might have been worth their while keeping them around because of being on previous lynches

thoughts

bella disappeared from wagons day 2
replacement hasn't been on any wagons since the lynch at the end of day 1
una has been in a lot. they were on the hoopla and popo day 1, the galron one day 2 and hoopla day 3

not-mafia
was on loads day 2 - emperor was on basically none day 1. they were on wagons day 2 on bella replacement and galron

bob isn't on many and hasn't been on a lynch all game


isis looks awful

day 1 on the hoopla wagon early, and then the popo lynch
day 2 on the bella, replacement and galron wagons
day 3 the hoopla lynch

ok, I am not overwhelmed with thoughts.

here are how I am reading people's presence on wagons

Bella - on all hoopla wagons, absent day 2 and jumped off the galron wagon before the lynch.

bob - they just aren't on wagons. not on any lynches. if they are scum they have done it very much on the down low

not mafia - didn't vote hoopla day 3.
day 2 on loads of wagons. looks bad

isis

voted hoopla
lynched popo and galron
also on the bella nd replacement wagons day 2
has a similar profile to bella

replacement

lynched popo day 1, not been on any wagons since. similar profile to bob


una

lynched hoopla day 3
on plenty wagons day 1 me and popo, day 2 the galron wagon

I think if bob and replacement are scum then they have outplayed me. they have both basically not been involved in any wagons and have let town kill itself

bella/isis/una

all three have similar profiles.
all 3 voted for hoopla day 1 and lynched them day 3
all three lynched popo
2 lynched galron and the other nearly did

not mafia

they have the unique voting pattern

no votes for hoopla on the wagons
emperor was absent day 1 before they were replaced
day 2 they were on lots of wagons, including bella, me and galron. got off bella early though

they look, to me, the most suspicious out of all the voting patterns

I have them minorly tired with Bella

I can't see me voting for Bob or replacement any time soon.

VOTE: not mafia

[geraintm]

I have no other info to go on in this game, all I can do is look through past votes and that is what I have done. said I would and so have done so.
any errors in the wagon counts are my own, please point them out if I have made any

[UnaBombaH]

Well, at least gera has provided a "fresh" angle.

But as far as I interpreted that post correctly - even gera thinks one scum has to be withing bella/Isis/Una.

[geraintm]

I thi k it is likely. It only becomes unlikely if at least one sxumhas basicLly avoided being in any wagons the entire game. That is also likely. But I am pretty much out of ideas in this game in finding scum.from their posts so have tried a different angle.

[Replacement for Sujimichi]

VOTE: Not Mafia

The dream would be Bob + NM. I don't see myself getting Bob today but NM isn't someone people should want to leave around. I asked, and no one could give me an explanation for why Flippy was towny. Promising to catch up a few times, getting demotivated and then repping out is slightly scum-indicative. That's if Flippy prefers town>scum obviously, but I'm just gonna assume he does because 95% of people on this site do.

Ah, but then I think back to the way Isis has been townreading Bob and admitting to not even fully reading his posts but only townreading him off of "tone", and I start to think of Bob+Isis again. Idk, I just don't want to bet the game on NM arbitrarily not being scum. Isis and Bob will (hopefully) become more readable if we hit lylo. NM won't.

[Isis]

If it's not you (and I really want Una to engage with the possibility that it isn't me -or- you and look at some of the wagons again, if he's town) then I feel it has to be one of bob/RFs and one of NM/Gera. And that doesn't quite feel like the solve

I'm creeped out by you building a scumpool that is "everybody"
The only person not listed is Una who you are also scumreading