Mini 2014: Succinct Mafia (Over)

[TrinityNZ]

Idk what you mean by strategy

Mine is to vote when I'm confident in a scumread

Your strategy for getting to a scum read...

[Ankamius]

Read through the thread and note things as I see them, mainly

Idk, might need to ask questions but that's the general plan at least

[Dunnstral]

What do you need to read through? I thought you thought it was Trinity at day start

[Ankamius]

Oh it probably is

[TrinityNZ]

I meant your strategy for this particular part of the game. I note you haven’t answered my question Dunn.

[Ankamius]

Oh, general strategy for LyLo?

I don't have a lot of LyLo games, tbh. Most of the time as scum I'm caught long before then, and as town I'm generally nightkilled before LyLo unless I'm completely disengaged. BUT, I'm also the designated mislynch when I'm in that scenario, so it's easy to just look through the thread at the last scum and build a case on them. The one game I was in LyLo as town without being the designated mislynch, I had the last scum caught at day start and simply failed to convince the second other town to vote alongside me since I had burned all my influence with them beforehand.

But, general strategy for scum... well, that's hard to really answer since scum-me would never have pushed Hiraki down Day Five like I did.

[TrinityNZ]

Oh, general strategy for LyLo?

I don't have a lot of LyLo games, tbh. Most of the time as scum I'm caught long before then, and as town I'm generally nightkilled before LyLo unless I'm completely disengaged. BUT, I'm also the designated mislynch when I'm in that scenario, so it's easy to just look through the thread at the last scum and build a case on them. The one game I was in LyLo as town without being the designated mislynch, I had the last scum caught at day start and simply failed to convince the second other town to vote alongside me since I had burned all my influence with them beforehand.

But, general strategy for scum... well, that's hard to really answer since scum-me would never have pushed Hiraki down Day Five like I did.

Thanks. This is my first time in LYLO. This game could go on forever unless someone makes the first move.

[mastina]

<<< I hope you didn't forget about this game! >>>

[TrinityNZ]

<<< I hope you didn't forget about this game! >>>

I think we need a deadline

[Dunnstral]

I actually forgot about this game, yes

[Dunnstral]

VOTE: TrinityNZ

This is who I believe is scum, I'll take the leap

[Ankamius]

popping in before work to specifically not hammer

[TrinityNZ]

popping in before work to specifically not hammer

So that means it’s Dunnstral who’s scum. I’m sure now.

VOTE: Dunnstral

[Ankamius]

okay so I'm going through the thread now while I have some time and have any modicum of motivation (I've had basically zero motivation for mafia at all in weeks, so I'm abusing this while I can)

if either of you would like to case each other or detail why it doesn't make sense for you to be town (with quoted reasoning attached), then that would be very helpful

otherwise I'm hoping to have the entire game read and a decision mostly made before I go to sleep tonight

...because if I don't, it'll be weeks again before I want to...

[Ankamius]

I'm over halfway through (up to the eevee lynch) and one slot is looking fairly scum while the other is looking fairly town (both fairly consistently too)

I think this game is close to a wrap but I still will take into account what either of you want to say over the next 12ish hours if there's anything I might be missing regarding thought processes and the like

[TrinityNZ]

I'm over halfway through (up to the eevee lynch) and one slot is looking fairly scum while the other is looking fairly town (both fairly consistently too)

I think this game is close to a wrap but I still will take into account what either of you want to say over the next 12ish hours if there's anything I might be missing regarding thought processes and the like

I would just try to say again in my defence that I have tried to hunt down scum in this game, whereas Dunnstral has made a minimal amount of effort. I’m sure you will have noticed that in your investigations. Despite repeated questions from me, Dunnstral has not really answered anything, and has just coasted along, trying to stay under the radar.

It will be interesting to hear what Dunnstral has to say, if anything.

[Dunnstral]

Trinity's read on me changed after the other scum died, and not because of interactions or anything, he latched on to what other people said and went from saying "hiraki needs to die" to "hiraki and Dunn need to die" for this 3p, also Math was never voting me so I maintain that I would've killed ank or something rather than wifom around

[Ankamius]

alright I'm here and both posts have been taken into account, lemme think on it briefly before I cast my vote

[Ankamius]

(and don't worry I'm not going to give a deadline and miss it by another twelve hours again like I did today like a grade A chump)

[Ankamius]

Okay, so even though I don't have a whole lot of experience in LyLo (predominantly when I'm in LyLo, it's more I'm the designated mislynch due to being heavily disengaged), I should in theory have the correct type of mindset for solving games that reach this point.

First of all, just looking back throughout the first couple of in-game days, there's a big discrepancy between SirCakez and Dunnstral in how they post. Dunnstral throughout the game hasn't had very many particularly impressive sounding posts and he has had one of the worst track records in the entire game with activity (only beaten by myself), but I've been able to roughly piece together what his thought processes are when he does post. SirCakez, however, doesn't have an underlying thought process behind what he posts, his posting is weirdly jagged and all over the place.

With interactions, I'm ignoring Kokichi entirely because I'm pretty well convinced by this point that trying to analyze anything that Kokichi does is just a waste of time in pretty much every context. But, Pine has some really interesting interactions. Mainly, his interactions with Dunnstral don't strike me at all as a SvS mindset, it strikes me more as a "Dunnstral that doesn't know that Pine is scum" and a "Pine that knows Dunnstral is town" type interaction. The way that they interact doesn't really gel with how I'm reading Pine playing through the game. The Cakez slot... has interestingly few interactions with Pine, which makes me wonder if it's on purpose.

Regarding kills, I think a lot of them were targeted at the more active people in the game. Momrangal is the only one that I don't quite get under this umbrella, but that can be explained away by Kokichi being replaced out on Day Two, since... well, it's Kokichi. He probably has drastically different priorities in scumkills than most other players. The rest I don't remember especially having great reads from what I saw. But Umlaut was highly engaged, Wisdom was highly engaged, LuckyOtter was highly engaged, and Mathblade was highly engaged. I firmly believe that scum were looking to bank on apathy and general disinterest to hide the last scum, which could even have been as a result of Pine having to claim doctor on day two. This indicates to me that the last scum's scumgame is likely weak. This in turn makes me think that it's unlikely I'm having the wool specifically pulled over my eyes in order to be manipulated into this situation. It doesn't feel planned enough for that to be the case, so I'm more confident that the reads that jump out to me are more likely to be correct than the ones I would probably get from deeply analyzing the game.

Now, the last thing that really jumps out to me is the responses I got when I reaction tested both slots today. Both slots... honestly had disappointing results. However, Dunnstral's response was more town than Trinity's was. Dunnstral pushed a point I made and didn't take the bait I laid for him. I think scum-him would've been warier with the language I was using to describe my read, primarily, although this is kind of weak and isn't very convincing as a town tell. However, I laid a different trap for Trinity at the start of the day, which she set off squarely in a scum-mindset way. It was a deflection of my suspicion rather than an attempt to sort me or an effort to actually convince me that Dunnstral was scum over her.

That's ultimately what I think is going on here. Dunnstral, while his content by itself isn't particularly impressive, shines as a reasonable town slot in a game where he just got put under a lot of fire as one of scum's designated winning mislynches. SirCakez/TrinityNZ (I'm not counting Magna's... threeish posts) both had weird thought processes, bad interactions with flipped scum, and overall just don't match with the game as town. Everything I'm seeing points to Trinity being the last scum.

Fingers crossed.

VOTE: TrinityNZ

[TrinityNZ]

Okay, so even though I don't have a whole lot of experience in LyLo (predominantly when I'm in LyLo, it's more I'm the designated mislynch due to being heavily disengaged), I should in theory have the correct type of mindset for solving games that reach this point.

First of all, just looking back throughout the first couple of in-game days, there's a big discrepancy between SirCakez and Dunnstral in how they post. Dunnstral throughout the game hasn't had very many particularly impressive sounding posts and he has had one of the worst track records in the entire game with activity (only beaten by myself), but I've been able to roughly piece together what his thought processes are when he does post. SirCakez, however, doesn't have an underlying thought process behind what he posts, his posting is weirdly jagged and all over the place.

With interactions, I'm ignoring Kokichi entirely because I'm pretty well convinced by this point that trying to analyze anything that Kokichi does is just a waste of time in pretty much every context. But, Pine has some really interesting interactions. Mainly, his interactions with Dunnstral don't strike me at all as a SvS mindset, it strikes me more as a "Dunnstral that doesn't know that Pine is scum" and a "Pine that knows Dunnstral is town" type interaction. The way that they interact doesn't really gel with how I'm reading Pine playing through the game. The Cakez slot... has interestingly few interactions with Pine, which makes me wonder if it's on purpose.

Regarding kills, I think a lot of them were targeted at the more active people in the game. Momrangal is the only one that I don't quite get under this umbrella, but that can be explained away by Kokichi being replaced out on Day Two, since... well, it's Kokichi. He probably has drastically different priorities in scumkills than most other players. The rest I don't remember especially having great reads from what I saw. But Umlaut was highly engaged, Wisdom was highly engaged, LuckyOtter was highly engaged, and Mathblade was highly engaged. I firmly believe that scum were looking to bank on apathy and general disinterest to hide the last scum, which could even have been as a result of Pine having to claim doctor on day two. This indicates to me that the last scum's scumgame is likely weak. This in turn makes me think that it's unlikely I'm having the wool specifically pulled over my eyes in order to be manipulated into this situation. It doesn't feel planned enough for that to be the case, so I'm more confident that the reads that jump out to me are more likely to be correct than the ones I would probably get from deeply analyzing the game.

Now, the last thing that really jumps out to me is the responses I got when I reaction tested both slots today. Both slots... honestly had disappointing results. However, Dunnstral's response was more town than Trinity's was. Dunnstral pushed a point I made and didn't take the bait I laid for him. I think scum-him would've been warier with the language I was using to describe my read, primarily, although this is kind of weak and isn't very convincing as a town tell. However, I laid a different trap for Trinity at the start of the day, which she set off squarely in a scum-mindset way. It was a deflection of my suspicion rather than an attempt to sort me or an effort to actually convince me that Dunnstral was scum over her.

That's ultimately what I think is going on here. Dunnstral, while his content by itself isn't particularly impressive, shines as a reasonable town slot in a game where he just got put under a lot of fire as one of scum's designated winning mislynches. SirCakez/TrinityNZ (I'm not counting Magna's... threeish posts) both had weird thought processes, bad interactions with flipped scum, and overall just don't match with the game as town. Everything I'm seeing points to Trinity being the last scum.

Fingers crossed.

VOTE: TrinityNZ

Sigh. Mafia wins.

[Ankamius]

well this is why I'm going back to retirement

[TrinityNZ]

well this is why I'm going back to retirement

I really thought you would see that Dunnstral had done suspiciously fuck all this game, but I have to take responsibility for not making a good enough case.

[Ankamius]

tbf Cakez kinda ruined your slot for me

his day one was really really sketchy

[mastina]

We have a hammer.
Flip when home from work.