Prey Mafia - Game Over

[skitter30]

i guess i forgot varsoon's reads from catching up last night; i'll look them over again in a bit

i guess with implosion i'm historically bad at reading him (i think i townread him - at least initially - in all three games i've played with him and he was scum ... twice) so i don't trust my own read there super much

and if a50 is really strongly townreading him i want to at least entertain the notion because he might have better accuracy on implosion than i do but i don't really see town!implosion rn.

i think at least in part that his scumgame is at least superficially like mine in that he starts running out of wim/motivation to keep the game moving as the game progresses. like he can keep up with the posting in the beginning but as time goes on he posts less and less and there's just less gamesolving momentum as time goes on, and i definitely see that happening here

@implosion this is my impression from that mini normal like ~around a year ago, if your scumgame has changed significantly sorry (i think this game and that game have similar mid/late-game gamestates too); i'm basing this off of games i've actually played with scum!you

[Chara]

Nonono for FUCKS SAKE

UNVOTE:
VOTE: BEF

To be clear in case the soup above is unreadable, I never voted percy

@xtoxm can you fix my fucked up quote? Halp

hey Elbirn, given that they're scum together, or implo is scum and Fish is town, would you vote implo?

i explained why scum Fish/town implo never happens here in my post above.

[skitter30]

Nonono for FUCKS SAKE

UNVOTE:
VOTE: BEF

To be clear in case the soup above is unreadable, I never voted percy

@xtoxm can you fix my fucked up quote? Halp

I've got you.

ok, would you vote implosion first then?

[Xtoxm]

VC 3.13

[3] BrightEyedFish:

Persivul, Varsoon, Elbirn

[1] implosion:

Chara

[1] Persivul:

implosion

[1] Varsoon:

skitter30

[3] Not Voting:

BrightEyedFish, mcqueen, Almost50

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

The Day 3 deadline is in

: (expired on 2019-02-21 19:00:00)

Spoiler:

From: Alex Yu
To: Hans Kelstrup
Cc:
Subject: Time to talk
Our esteemed colleague Dr. Gallegos is posing a problem. Let's talk via Looking Glass ASAP.
-Alex

[skitter30]

i'm home sick today so i guess i'll see which of my townreads are deserved or not.

feel better btw

i think you're the major protective of this setup, but instead of just being a flat-out protective you also roleblock the person you're protecting

you kinda reduce swing
there's a bunch of measures built in to reduce swing from my pov (there's *a bunch* of measures built in around negating people's action - enter was a 1s commuter, varsoon has claimed commuter, you're ascetic, elbirn, you're a rolestopper)

also i just remember we have a flipped commuter already, just pointing this out for varsoon

i still would be quite surprised if the only investigative we have is a one-shot cop that i might give to scum by mistake

[skitter30]

i still would be quite surprised if the only investigative we have is a one-shot cop that i might give to scum by mistake

especially given the like six different ways it might get negated or not be received

[Varsoon]

Yeah, I think A50's dead on with the associatives and if it isn't implosion/mcqueen/one of percy-BEF then you fuckers have snowed me thoroughly.

should i be voting you rn {y/n}?
if you're town help me see it because atm i don't and i think you're my preferred lynch today

also remind me again what your reads are and who you want to lynch today?

Don't think you should be voting me for a few reasons:
1. We don't have much time to get a lynch and while a no lynch wouldn't be awful here, we have a huge chance of hitting scum with what we've got and I don't want to waste the day on a NL.
2. I'm town, so if your vote on me does end up pushing out a wagon to lynch on me, then we're all that much closer to losing, and so I have to advise against that shit or else I'm probably not playing to wincon.
3. There's much better places to vote in PoE that are almost guaranteed to net scum within 1 or 2 lynches--I know you don't like the idea of 'chain lynches' but literally that's how process of elimination works, man.

My reads are in the post you quoted, but here's everyone.
Almost50 is absolutely town unless godfather or some wild nonsense, at which point, I am fine losing the game either due to the insane amount of gambiting present or poor setup design.
Elbirn's locktown for a few tells that I know to be very likely true unless Elbirn's 'cashing them in' which I highly doubt. I wish he was more present but he's my highest confidence read that's not influenced by mechanics/claims.
You're pretty hard town, too, due to how thorough you've been investigating and working at this game and questioning things. Your claim is fairly irrefutable, too, I think, though I could imagine it as a scum role, but not with how you've also been playing.
I'm fairly certain Chara is town. I've wavered on this because Chara kept proposing things that I concluded scum would propose, but if Chara is scum, it'd be a really different scumteam than the one I've figured and so a red flip there would be really fucking volatile for me. I've seen Chara play in a lot of games by now and played a lot with them, so I think this is less of a schemer-Chara and more just genuine Chara, but, again, I'm not even 90% on this so Chara's a lower confidence townread for me due to some of the hypotheticals that came out today. Like with A50, though, I think it's too late in the game for me to second guess this shit, so if Chara is tricking me, fuck it, I'll take the L.
Percival is on the tipping point for me. They've had this really sanitized approach to the game where their posts feel very by-the-books what a townie should be posting, but I don't see them doing any sort of actual in-thread sleuthing or investigation. The whole neighborhood PoE brings it really down to Percival or BEF as scum, but I believe Percival's claim in that if scum was trying to make a survivalistic claim at L-1, why the fuck would they go with some weird "I don't know if it is gooncop" flavorcop shit? It struck me as too precise, though maybe Xtoxm's fakeclaims are really fucking good and I'm willing to believe that, but I wouldn't lynch Percival today. There's better lynches, and those are:
BEF has lied about their role multiple times, so much to the point their claimed role is not confirmable because they even targeted the claimed ascetic, apparently. It all feels way too convenient, and unlike A50, I don't think their claimed role exists or is even mechanically town. It'd be far too swingy to have a role intended to positively interact with exactly one other town role and only in early game. BEF's play has been dodgy and it really feels like he's been playing up the town idiot angle and trying to rely on people reading him as town based on all that. Like with Percival, I don't see BEF actually trying to figure this game out at all, either. There's also that malarky where BEF was fishing for where the kill done gone and I think that indicates that scum tried to kill skitter, as was covered earlier, and was pushing for figuring out why it didn't go through. The other big thing is that BEF flipping town condemns Percival as scum, and given the numbers, we can actually lynch here and solve that PoE, however, BEF flipping scum just means we hit scum, which is great, because then we still have that extra lynch moving forward. I really think BEF should be today's lynch and it seems like that's the conclusion most of my townreads have come to as well, whereas my scumreads have largely avoided the BEF wagon.
Mcqueen is very likely scum. Their posts are empty and despite their presence on Day 1, I've felt nothing from them. I've been over why their claim and play makes me uncomfortable.
Implosion is almost certainly scum. If I wasn't voting to solve in the BEF-Percival PoE, this is where my vote would be. Implosion and Mcqueen feel like partners to me, too, and, like with all my scumreads, Implosion doesn't feel like he's trying to gamesolve either.

Varsoon: that's why i want your thought process. i don't care how much you remember it, really. where did your read on me waver and why is it strong again? if you're being honest i'll see it.

I was starting to think I didn't have this shit solved and then you showed up and proposed basically everything antithetical to my solve, like to lynch outside of BEF/Percival, to consider that my commute didn't soak the kill, etc. It felt like you were trying hard to take the reigns of the game and direct the flow and I didn't feel like you'd actually solved the game enough to be able to do that so confidently. You can see me working through that shit in my posts where I realized that, from your PoE, yeah, lynching outside of BEF/Percival is a much higher yield for scum, but that's only if you're town--if you're scum and let's say BOTH BEF AND PERCIVAL are your buddies, then we're ABSOLUTELY FUCKED if we do that, and so I was like, "Wait shit no, I have to stick to my guns and I can't let Chara fucking one up me like that and then never hear the end of how great I got wrecked by Chara-scum." In the end, though, I am pretty sure you're town, and that your claimed protect of skitter (right, I'm not remembering this, right?) is what BEF-scum was fishing for earlier. That said, does your ability stop kills? Because in that case, I'm not sure why you aren't more critical of Skitter. Those are the kinds of conclusions I was coming to and it was making me really unsure if you were town or not. Like I said earlier, I've come to the conclusion that if you're scum here, I'm just hard fucked, but I also won't accept lynching outside the PoE that I think does solve us the game.

[Varsoon]

I'm actually really surprised that Skitter feels like Chara is town here and vice-versa.
Like
If I had an ability and someone stopped me from using it, I'd be like, "WHERE IS THAT SCUM MOTHERFUCKER?"
Similarly if I could stop someone from taking actions and I hit someone with it and there was no kill, I'd be like, "I GOT THAT SCUM MOTHERFUCKER!"
but maybe that's just a difference in my approach to the game?
Also that does lean heavy on a decisively mechanical approach to the game, whereas I think you've both been pretty town otherwise.
I'm just curious why neither of you seem to have considered the other in that way.

[Chara]

if there had been no kill night 1, i would have tried my hardest to power lynch Percy.

i was already very confident in skitter town. i'm not going to flip my read on her because i also roleblocked her and could have stopped the kill. what's more likely, that skitter is town who was townread by the entire list and thus targeted by scum, or that she's scum who decided to perform the kill in spite of being the most townread scum in the game? (because in a hypothetical scum skitter world, she's the deep scum.)

she's town. my protect makes her conf, but her play makes her town. i've seen scum skitter and she just can't maintain this.

[Chara]

skitter: i think that's a really good few posts from town Varsoon. i,'m not interested in lynching him anymore and he's being consistent with his town self. he actually was a few posts earlier than that but it was more minor and i needed to be more sure than "hm, maybe."

[Varsoon]

If I was a global townread and I was scum, I'd be the one doing kills, because then people would be less likely to be tracking me.

You're right, though, in that her play makes her town. Short of some real fuckery that I'm not going to entertain, I think it's very likely you're both town and your protect IS what stopped the kill, which is exactly what BEF was looking for earlier, since it was clear from his responses to me that he KNEW there was another way for a kill to be stopped outside of my commute.

[Chara]

It felt like you were trying hard to take the reigns of the game and direct the flow and I didn't feel like you'd actually solved the game enough to be able to do that so confidently.

it's all pretty good, this part in particular feels very genuine.

[Chara]

If I was a global townread and I was scum, I'd be the one doing kills, because then people would be less likely to be tracking me.

maybe it's because i'm used to seeing watchers, but as scum i'm always wary of them and only perform kills if my partners are doing better at looking town.
but i understand this.

[Elbirn]

@xtoxm can you fix my fucked up quote? Halp

I've got you.

You have been most kind and attentive

hey Elbirn, given that they're scum together, or implo is scum and Fish is town, would you vote implo?

i explained why scum Fish/town implo never happens here in my post above.

ok, would you vote implosion first then?

To be 10000% clear, I'll vote implo if necessary but bef is my preference. I think a bef flip gives so much more information, practically clears percy (unless you think theres two hood scum, I sure dont), practically guilties implo (see my last post), and just...yeah. whereas an implo scum flip gives us a dead scum, sure, but I dont know what else from it.

Frankly I want bef dead first because it makes it easier to get implo afterwards, in a way that we dont get from lynching implo first, and I'm a manipulative little shit because I dont want everyone to forget about bef tomorrow, especially if I'm not around to death tunnel him.

I'm actually really surprised that Skitter feels like Chara is town here and vice-versa.
Like
If I had an ability and someone stopped me from using it, I'd be like, "WHERE IS THAT SCUM MOTHERFUCKER?"
Similarly if I could stop someone from taking actions and I hit someone with it and there was no kill, I'd be like, "I GOT THAT SCUM MOTHERFUCKER!"
but maybe that's just a difference in my approach to the game?
Also that does lean heavy on a decisively mechanical approach to the game, whereas I think you've both been pretty town otherwise.
I'm just curious why neither of you seem to have considered the other in that way.

I thought about this as well and like...while charas reaction doesnt make sense necessarily, it DOES in a situation where shes townreading skitter hard. If you're a jail keeper you can either play to protect someone or play to guilty and getting a successful protect shouldnt mean flipping your read because you were playing to protect town so like idk man look I dont do the words I want coffee and I'm in a rush

[Elbirn]

I've been considering chara as deep scum but why is she bussing implo and clearing skitter?

[skitter30]

It'd be far too swingy to have a role intended to positively interact

with exactly one other town role

and only in early game.

this isn't true btw
(and i've said as such multiple times i'm pretty sure)

[Chara]

skitter
Almost
Varsoon/ Elbirn

Fish/Percy
implosion/mcqueen

thanks to Varsoon i finally have a PoE i can be satisfied with.
i really doubt both of Fish and Percy are scum.

my reads this game have been pretty garbage unless implosion is scum, so i understand the lack of faith, but i'm still confident in my townreads. Elbirn is one i have the least confidence in but he's still up there

so as long as the lynch is in the bottom 4, i'm happy.
never lynch Almost or Varsoon. keep this list in mind going forward.

[skitter30]

Implosion is almost certainly scum. If I wasn't voting to solve in the BEF-Percival PoE, this is where my vote would be.

so since neither me/chara are really interested in bef today can i interest you in voting implosion instead?

[skitter30]

If I had an ability and someone stopped me from using it, I'd be like, "WHERE IS THAT SCUM MOTHERFUCKER?"

a) i don't know if i was roleblocked (i don't get feedback from the mod and it didn't really occur to me until chara said they roleblock/rolestopped me last night)

b) i'd rather be protected + roleblocked than dead given what i did last night

[skitter30]

if there had been no kill night 1, i would have tried my hardest to power lynch Percy.

i was already very confident in skitter town. i'm not going to flip my read on her because i also roleblocked her and could have stopped the kill. what's more likely, that skitter is town who was townread by the entire list and thus targeted by scum, or that she's scum who decided to perform the kill in spite of being the most townread scum in the game? (because in a hypothetical scum skitter world, she's the deep scum.)

she's town. my protect makes her conf, but her play makes her town. i've seen scum skitter and she just can't maintain this.

in the theoretical scum!me universe i do all the kills here, 100%
and no, i can't maintain this, i'm holistically pretty far out of my range

[skitter30]

skitter: i think that's a really good few posts from town Varsoon. i,'m not interested in lynching him anymore and he's being consistent with his town self. he actually was a few posts earlier than that but it was more minor and i needed to be more sure than "hm, maybe."

ok
VOTE: implosion

[Chara]

okay skitter shh you don't need to stoke my lingering paranoia. you're town.

pedit: so you agree? i'd like your feedback on it and hope you aren't only trusting me there.

[skitter30]

To be 10000% clear, I'll vote implo if necessary but bef is my preference. I think a bef flip gives so much more information, practically clears percy (unless you think theres two hood scum, I sure dont), practically guilties implo (see my last post), and just...yeah. whereas an implo scum flip gives us a dead scum, sure, but I dont know what else from it.

Frankly I want bef dead first because it makes it easier to get implo afterwards, in a way that we dont get from lynching implo first, and I'm a manipulative little shit because I dont want everyone to forget about bef tomorrow, especially if I'm not around to death tunnel him.

a) you're assuming bef will flip scum and i'm still not sure that's a thing
b) you also think you're dying tonight which i find really unlikely
c) the people pushing bef are largely in my poe so ...

[Varsoon]

Implosion is almost certainly scum. If I wasn't voting to solve in the BEF-Percival PoE, this is where my vote would be.

so since neither me/chara are really interested in bef today can i interest you in voting implosion instead?

We're really close to deadline, but if we can get the votes, yeah.
I feel like Chara's PoE is on the money and while I'd really, really prefer solving in the BEF/Percival PoE, if the votes aren't there for it, then the votes aren't there for it, and I want a lynch over nothing.
VOTE: Implosion

If I had an ability and someone stopped me from using it, I'd be like, "WHERE IS THAT SCUM MOTHERFUCKER?"

a) i don't know if i was roleblocked (i don't get feedback from the mod and it didn't really occur to me until chara said they roleblock/rolestopped me last night)

b) i'd rather be protected + roleblocked than dead given what i did last night

Oh, well, yeah, if you don't know that you were blocked, then that makes sense.
I was just stricken by how confident both of you were in the other, but I think I'm just a lot more prone to jumping to conclusions and questioning shit hard when things don't go my way.

[skitter30]

okay skitter shh you don't need to stoke my lingering paranoia. you're town.

pedit: so you agree? i'd like your feedback on it and hope you aren't only trusting me there.

i'm not vibing town!varsoon as strongly as you are tbh
not sure i vibe it at all actually

i don't have a *great* track record at reading him but i still don't like how he was assuming he's the reason for the missing nk? he's good with setup spec, and the notion that there might have been some other way for the nk to go missing completely goes beyond him? idk to me at least it's like painfully obvious that he wasn't a viable nk last night

and in his most recent post he concedes that it's most likely that you protected me but i don't know why he thinks that now, i'm kinda wondering if he switched his opinion to stop getting flak over his original stance

i want to lynch in {implosion/varsoon} today and if you don't want varsoon that's ok i'm happy with implosion