Mini 2110: I hate Mafia (Day 8)

[Rautherdir]

But a mime might jump onto me for town equity regardless, so just be careful about that.

By the way, as long as you can figure out who at least one mime is (without killing them) then town wins.

[Rautherdir]

Probably why we have a vig instead of a cop. A cop is far more powerful then a vig in this setup.

[Rautherdir]

(Sorry, just realizing I'm not going to be able to post after getting lynched. Which should have been obvious, I just wasn't expecting to get lynched day 1.)

[Creature]

You still can not get lynched?

[Rautherdir]

I mean, I guess? I could get day-vigged.

[Gamma Emerald]

Oh right oh right Phyrra is Alisae, right?

no. Why do you think that?

idk, Alisae is usually the spammy anime avatar

Alisae also doesn’t play that much anymore

unless she's scum

What???

[Rautherdir]

I mean, there is literally no reason for me to be a mime at L-1 and not hammer myself. That's a thing only town will do this game.

[Gamma Emerald]

I don’t like that there’s barely anything I feel is interactable in Creature’s posting

“Intractable”? What do you mean?

He apparently likes to make long chains of posts solely replying to my shitposting

I mean there nothing I feel like is worth talking about further there

[Hectic]

I didn't notice Hectic volunteering. The group is me, Enter, Venmar, Farkran, Hectic, and DrDolittle. There are now four possibilities. Either 0, 1, 2, or 3 mimes are in the group that volunteered. The game is now divided into three groups, the vig, the group that volunteered, and everyone else.

What's going to happen next, is we're going to ignore what I said earlier about not lynching in that group. The vig is going to shoot someone. Anyone except themselves. And as long as there aren't 2 mimes in that group then town wins.

If the vig shoots town, then the lynch will be in the group the vig shot in. If the vig shoots a mime, then the lynch will be in the group the vig didn't shoot.
On every future day, if the previous day's lynch was on town then you'll lynch in the same group that player was in. If the previous day's lynch was on a mime then you'll lynch in the other group.
Once there are the same number of town and mimes, not including the vig, lynch the vig, and get a town victory.

Hi there, Rau. I hope you're doing well.

If the mimes were randomly allocated between the two groups, and if we take any given group, there's a 1/8 chance of 0 mimes in that group, 1/8 chance of 3, 3/8 of 1, and 3/8 of 2. So if you're claiming we always win if the group picked doesn't have 2 mimes in it - which does seem to be the case after simulating the scenarios in my head - we have a 5/8 chance of winning using this plan, which isn't half bad, Rau.

Let's follow this plan of taking turns lynching in the groups, while also using our reads to lynch the towniest person possible when it's time to lynch in a given group. Shoot someone in Rau and I's group, Wake, and let's get this show on the road.

[Hectic]

Never mind, it's actually a 1/11 chance of getting 0 mimes in a group, and a 1/11 chance of getting 3 in a group.

[Venmar]

id just like to take credit for being the first one on this wagon

[Hectic]

Still, a 13/22 chance (or 59%) of winning using this strat isn't bad, though I do suspect that it isn't any better than random lynching. It just gives order to random lynching but doesn't actually improve the odds, unless you can enlighten me, Rau.

[Hectic]

Assuming Rau's on L-1 and hasn't hammered himself, we can treat him as confirmed town from this point onwards, and he can help us lynch townies. If it ever gets to a point where we have to lynch correctly or we lose, we can lynch the vig or Rau.

This strategy won't work for future people who reach L-1, as they can intentionally not hammer to get the same logic applied to them.

Unvote for Rau, people.

[Venmar]

UNVOTE: Rau

i might rejoin this but i was going to ask anyway why we were about to lynch one of the towniest people on day 1. i feel like the townier the person the more valuable they are as a safe lynch later in the game.

[Hectic]

Still, a 13/22 chance (or 59%) of winning using this strat isn't bad, though I do suspect that it isn't any better than random lynching. It just gives order to random lynching but doesn't actually improve the odds, unless you can enlighten me, Rau.

Oh, wait. I didn't account for the fact the vig is a safe lynch in my calculations. Too lazy to try again.
Basically: This setup seems pretty townsided even if we just randomly lynch. Considering the fact we can actually use reads to lynch, and that if we nail just one scummy player, we win, this should be pretty easy.

[Wake1]

Since I am confirmed Town I will be the last Town member to be lynched, and I will vote myself.

Then again if we leave all 3 Mimes alive how do I get lynched if they won't allow it?

[Hectic]

Still, a 13/22 chance (or 59%) of winning using this strat isn't bad, though I do suspect that it isn't any better than random lynching. It just gives order to random lynching but doesn't actually improve the odds, unless you can enlighten me, Rau.

Oh, wait. I didn't account for the fact the vig is a safe lynch in my calculations. Too lazy to try again.
Basically: This setup seems pretty townsided even if we just randomly lynch. Considering the fact we can actually use reads to lynch, and that if we nail just one scummy player, we win, this should be pretty easy.

Oh, wait, oh, wait. 59% is actually correct, since the scenario Rau outlined accounts for lynching the vig, and that's why we always win if there's 0, 1, or 3 mimes in a group.
Now that we can treat Rau as a conftown, even better though.

[Hectic]

Since I am confirmed Town I will be the last Town member to be lynched, and I will vote myself.

Then again if we leave all 3 Mimes alive how do I get lynched if they won't allow it?

There'd be 7 players alive in such a situation, and the 3 other townies would vote alongside you for yourself.

Can whoever's doing all this setup spec stop now? It's making me nauseous.

[Map Wolf]

Yeah town wins the moment it loses majority.

[Creature]

Yep, better to keep Wake alive to be the last lynch of the game

He should also keep his shot for as long as possible

[Pyrrha Nikos]

Oh right oh right Phyrra is Alisae, right?

no. Why do you think that?

idk, Alisae is usually the spammy anime avatar

Alisae also doesn’t play that much anymore

unless she's scum

What???

Unless it’s a Great Idea game, you can’t have any control over what you’re alignment is pre-game, unless Creature is suggesting Ali has a tendency to replace out as town. Is that what you’re saying, @Creature?

[Pyrrha Nikos]

Yep, better to keep Wake alive to be the last lynch of the game

He should also keep his shot for as long as possible

Yeah, that’s probably a good idea.

[Farkran]

I think rauth was at L-2 though.

Not that it changes anything, both town and mimes have the same advantage to quickly selfhammer because, knowing their own alignment, they are never wrong in doing so. It's not the same as quickhammering in a standard mafia game, where you can't be sure of the alignment of your target.

Both town and mimes also have an interest in NOT selfhammering to gain towncred, as long as it isn't the last mime alive or the last town in lywin.

[Pyrrha Nikos]

I think rauth was at L-2 though.

Not that it changes anything, both town and mimes have the same advantage to quickly selfhammer because, knowing their own alignment, they are never wrong in doing so. It's not the same as quickhammering in a standard mafia game, where you can't be sure of the alignment of your target.

Both town and mimes also have an interest in NOT selfhammering to gain towncred, as long as it isn't the last mime alive or the last town in lywin.

Well yeah, the last mime would obviously self-hammer. Problem is that can obviously never be used as a reaction test.

[Pyrrha Nikos]

Oh wait, I thought he was at L-1. Are you sure?