Mini 2237: Scarlet Witch Alternate Reality Mafia - Game Over

[cyrus62]

game is becomeing wild quickly . kinda hard to keep up.

[CheekyTeeky]

Btw I'm Todd Davis/Arthur Hart. My flavor is that I play the role of Vision's boss once reality gets altered by Wanda. I can role claim next if necessary, but my power is relatively weak.

I'm a Visitor that fails if I target anyone other than Vision, the flavor being from the plot of the first episode where my character was coming over to Wanda and Vision's home for dinner. Vision knows if I successfully Visit them, and doing so also reveals to me who Wanda is. However, this doesn't inform me of either of their alignments.

Srsly...

[Galron]

Was sick today and didn't do anything. Be back in the morning.

[mastina]

Wtf? HEY! In what world do you believe that im scum with Roden?

I don't? You're mutually exclusive with both Roden and T3.

I'm not following your progression on some of your reads mastina. Like, yes you're amazing, but I'm not as confident that we're at the stage we can PoE like that yet.

Well basically:

You are very very clearly town, here.

I have a suspicion on Galron which would make them town here if true--even without it being true, Galron looks town enough, doesn't look like scum with anyone, doesn't look like scum, so is probably town even if I wasn't right with my suspicion.

cyrus is very easy to read. There's one, maybe MAYBE two POSSIBLE flags to him POTENTIALLY being scum but I'm like 90% sure that this is him as town because he's not showing the markers I'd expect from him if he were scum and he IS showing the markers I'd expect if he were town. Beyond that, most slots in the game don't work well as scumbuddies with him, making it quite likely that he's town.

Not_Mafia in spite of what people seem to think about him isn't actually impossible to read; this actually

does

look like N_M's towngame here and N_M has similar vibes to cyrus and Galron: someone who doesn't look like scum with TMI, doesn't look like scum, doesn't have good scumbuddies, etc. It's not impossible for him to be scum but it's quite unlikely for him to be scum.

Shrek, wasn't it you who said this doesn't look like his scumgame? I wouldn't know that for sure, but his content looks town, it doesn't look like he's scum with TMI, and it doesn't look like he's scum with anyone as I struggle to make a scumteam with him on it.

MegAzumarill is a much weaker read, but vibewise overall feels more like town than not, and also doesn't seem to mesh well with being scum with anyone else. I can't really find a scumteam with Meg on it that makes a lot of sense.

And given that I am town, that gives us 7 names that aren't scum, which leaves us with 6 names who could be scum, in a setup that is likely 2:2 meaning 4/6 are scum and 2/6 are town.

T3-Guillotina interactions are clearly not partners.
T3-Roden interactions are clearly not partners.
Roden-Guillotina interactions are clearly not partners.
Roden-Hiraki, while not impossible, don't look like likely partners.
Hiraki pushed fairly hard on Element, and is thus not partners with Element.

Given the above, and given that the pool of possible scum is:
{Roden, T3, Guillotina, Hiraki, Element, Zyla}.

You can begin to extrapolate possible scumteams.

Each scumteam likely has precisely two members on it.

From there you factor in the interactions.

There cannot be 0 scum in {T3, Guillotina, Roden} because there's 6 scum candidates meaning in a 2:2 game we need 4 scum and thus there needs to be a minimum of 1 scum in that trio.

There cannot be 3 scum in {T3, Guillotina, Roden} because there's only going to be two scumteams (barring it being like 2:2:1 or 2:2:2 but if it's that much multiball we may as well just vote out everyone and hope/pray that they don't kill town and crosskill each other).

Meaning that {T3, Guillotina, Roden} has 1-2 scum.

If it is 1 scum in them, then with the other two as town, the scumteams must, by necessity, contain all of {Hiraki, Element, Zyla} with Hiraki and Element on opposite scumteams, with it being Hiraki + Zyla vs Element + the 1 scum in {T3, Guillotina, Roden}, OR: Hiraki + the 1 scum in {T3, Guillotina, Roden} vs. {Element, Zyla}.

If it is 2 scum in them, then with the third as town, the two scum by necessity are on opposite teams.
That's how you get:
{T3, Hiraki} vs. {Roden, Element}
{T3, Hiraki} vs. {Roden, Zyla}
{T3, Hiraki} vs. {Guillotina, Element}
{T3, Hiraki} vs. {Gullotina, Zyla}
{Guillotina, Hiraki} vs. {Roden, Element}
{Guillotina, Hiraki} vs. {Roden, Zyla}
{Gullotina, Hiraki} vs. {T3, Element}
{Guillotina, Hiraki} vs. {T3, Zyla}

Add in the earlier 1 scum instead of 2 scum combos:
{Hiraki, Zyla} vs. {Element, Guillotina}
{Hiraki, Zyla} vs. {Element, T3}
{Hiraki, Zyla} vs. {Element, Roden}
{Hiraki, Guillotina} vs. {Element, Zyla}
{Hiraki, T3} vs. {Element, Zyla}

That leaves us with 13 plausible-probable scumteam combinations.

Does that help?

[CheekyTeeky]

O_O'

What if you're scum?

[mastina]

What if you're scum?

Well I'm pretty damn transparently not since this is fairly obviously my towngame and it should be pretty damn apparently that, no, I did not know this was multiball (which I obviously would if I was on a scumteam without 3 members), but even if I faked that and even if it wasn't my towngame the moment I show my role off I'll be universally townread. (I shouldn't need to, as that's redundant given that this is my towngame and it should be apparent I didn't know it was multiball, but I DO have the, albeit should-be-redundant, trump card of my role which if the reasons for me being town aren't good enough would bail me out by proving that I'm town.)

[CheekyTeeky]

Assuming you're town the best vote based on your teams would be Hiraki, I'm getting some aggro vibes from them which I think come from town.

The logic checks out but depends both on you being town and on your town reads being accurate. I think it's a good strat after N1 because we'll have a better idea on the set up and will have hopefully had some informative flips.

[CheekyTeeky]

Actually I could compromise on Hiraki.

[mastina]

Assuming you're town the best vote based on your teams would be Hiraki, I'm getting some aggro vibes from them which I think come from town.
The logic checks out but depends both on you being town and on your town reads being accurate. I think it's a good strat after N1 because we'll have a better idea on the set up and will have hopefully had some informative flips.

Oh wait I think I forgot a few teams, there's more than 13.
I realize every combo I listed had Hiraki in it but I forgot to include the ones which have him not there.

{T3, Hiraki} vs. {Roden, Element}
{T3, Hiraki} vs. {Roden, Zyla}
{T3, Hiraki} vs. {Guillotina, Element}
{T3, Hiraki} vs. {Gullotina, Zyla}
{T3, Zyla} vs. {Roden, Element}
{T3, Element} vs. {Roden, Zyla}
{T3, Zyla} vs. {Guillotina, Element}
{T3, Element} vs. {Gullotina, Zyla}
{Guillotina, Hiraki} vs. {Roden, Element}
{Guillotina, Hiraki} vs. {Roden, Zyla}
{Gullotina, Hiraki} vs. {T3, Element}
{Guillotina, Hiraki} vs. {T3, Zyla}
{Guillotina, Zyla} vs. {Roden, Element}
{Guillotina, Element} vs. {Roden, Zyla}

{Hiraki, Zyla} vs. {Element, Guillotina}
{Hiraki, Zyla} vs. {Element, T3}
{Hiraki, Zyla} vs. {Element, Roden}
{Hiraki, Guillotina} vs. {Element, Zyla}
{Hiraki, T3} vs. {Element, Zyla}

I think this is all of the non-redundant ones which brings it up to 19 total, if I'm not missing any or making a scumteam appear twice.

[mastina]

(Btw another reason you don't need to worry about me, CheekyTeeky: I am town here but even were I not I'd still be a juicy NK target. Given I AM town, that's doubly so. There's TWO teams that can shoot me rather than just one so I'm almost assuredly dead sooner rather than later because I'm probably one of the only players capable of doing that sort of extensive team breakdowns to solve the multiball equation.)

[Guillotina]

Actually if you genuinely believe that I never considered to understand why you're pushing me, that implies you think I'm town.

No, I'm implying that you are scum with an agenda. I've been very clear that I don't town read you.

[Guillotina]

Wtf? HEY! In what world do you believe that im scum with Roden?

I don't? You're mutually exclusive with both Roden and T3.

That is even worse, I think both of them could be scum, associating me with them implies that I'm bussing my partners for no reason whatsoever. I've scum read them based on interactions with you and now YOU think I'm scum with them.

The Audacity!

[Roden]

Actually if you genuinely believe that I never considered to understand why you're pushing me, that implies you think I'm town.

No, I'm implying that you are scum with an agenda. I've been very clear that I don't town read you.

If I'm scum with an agenda and you're town, I don't have to understand why you're pushing me because obviously I am your enemy. Town can't plead with scum to try to understand them because scum's objective is to deceive and kill despite knowing the truth. So why are you pleading with scum to understand your perspective?

If I'm not a town read, then you're slipping that I'm town through TMI.

[CheekyTeeky]

That's not a bad point Roden.

[Shrek]

mastina i appreciate your contributions but those reads are wack af do you really expect me to understand all that

[cyrus62]

To be fair I was hoping for a lot more post from t3 by now and basically everyone else. But Cyrus you said it was wild and hard to keep up. Well I should have been more clear its wild and hard to keep up becuse every one seems to be scum reading each other rather then one individual or just a few at least and I'm wondering if I missed something . Plus I'm haveing a hard time reading in to mistina.

[MegAzumarill]

Wtf? HEY! In what world do you believe that im scum with Roden?

I don't? You're mutually exclusive with both Roden and T3.

That is even worse, I think both of them could be scum, associating me with them implies that I'm bussing my partners for no reason whatsoever. I've scum read them based on interactions with you and now YOU think I'm scum with them.

The Audacity!

Mutually exclusive means they think you are not scum together

[T3]

Btw I'm Todd Davis/Arthur Hart. My flavor is that I play the role of Vision's boss once reality gets altered by Wanda. I can role claim next if necessary, but my power is relatively weak.

hmmmmmmm

[T3]

At this stage I would unironically be okay with all of the main 3 and maybe Hiraki fullclaiming today.
Being all of {Roden, T3, Guillotina} fullciaming.

I realize that having three slots (maybe 4) fullclaim on D1 is unusual but this is a game with unusual circumstances. The multiball nature of the game + the prominence of those three (with the side of Hiraki) + the players who I feel are town no matter what narrows down things significantly enough that I genuinely feel it's worth it.

HMMMMMMMMMMMMM

[T3]

I'm Abilash Tandon/Norm. VT

[T3]

Roden's claim feels believable? But also he's such a minor character, I could see that as one of scum's fakeclaims.

[T3]

I really just want to lim Roden here.

[Hiraki]

I actually agree with a lot of what mastina is saying even if it means my time is potentially limited by the ordering. My only issue is that I think some of the callouts for lock-town are super early but I'm sure that mastina also knows that.

[Hiraki]

woah cake

[T3]

Town: ppl
scum: roden