In post 1152, NorwegianboyEE wrote:It also seems like their scumread on Cakez was retroactively manufactured by looking through their ISO and framing their progression as scum indicative rather than coming to the solution naturally.
I'm not sure how you can say this given my mention of Luke's similar behavior in the final sentence of 1062, but I'll grant my playstyle/thought process seems to be notably different from others, so I'll go into more detail for clarity's sake for everyone.
When a Mafia member gets eliminated Day 1, the first things to look for are (a) people attempting to derail the train, and (b) people supporting the idea that the eliminated player was Mafia but finding reasons to not support the train. Anyone that exhibits these behaviors is highly likely to be Mafia-aligned themselves and trying to save their teammate from elimination. Luke fits (a) with the vote for flipped-town Aaron in 901 followed by the move to competing-train Norpiece in 906, Cakez fits (b) as described in 1062. I can try to elaborate beyond this if people have further concerns, though I'd request in advance that said people detail what their concerns are specifically because I feel like this is already really foundational stuff.
---
@Norpiece 1151: I try to be extra clear when presenting cases so as to minimize time lost to misunderstandings and other people doing research that I've already done. Like, I could have said something like "Cakez prob Mafia, train approach was garbo", but then that puts an onus of rereading the situation to understand my position on other people when I've already done the work.
@Gamma 1155: It's a combination of the utterly awful (in a Mafioso way) approach to the Kakeguri train, as described above, and the obsession with getting 100% concretely "confirmed" Town to the point of trying to make the pedantry argument in 1105. That was the post where I started thinking "methinks thou doth protest too much". I doubt I would push Luke as a serious elimination candidate today because I recognize the weight of the wish result and because time affords us some other ways of catching him if he is indeed Mafia, but I still would very much rather people not take the results of the wish and just shut their brains off regarding the possibility of Mafia Luke.
---
To acknowledge Cakez's 1163, I'll grant that there likely was/is not an explanation that would satisfy my concerns regarding how the Kakeguri train. In terms of "what can you do", though, if a Townie makes a very-likely-to-come-from-Mafia mistake, good day play is the best way to make up for it. In this particular case...I don't know why Cakez specifically is voting for me here? Like, okay, I think I can take a preeeeeetty good guess why Mafia Cakez is voting for me here, but if this is somehow another case of Town Cakez making a mistake, I don't know what the justification would be.
VOTE: SirCakez for everything that's been said in this post; the rest of his day play hasn't been nearly Townie enough to me to lean me toward the idea that his approach to the Kakeguri wagon was a genuine error.
Sanae's vote also looks for all the world like a casual Mafia slide onto a seemingly-easy train and it boggles the mind that no one that has posted since has commented on it. I'd like to hear from Norpiece in particular about why he had nothing to say about that vote given he was suspecting Sanae at the beginning of the day (to the point of voting Sanae in 1100).
I disagree with this assertion. See 1147. The wish result has enough weight that I'm not pursuing Luke ahead of Cakez, though, and wouldn't pursue Luke ahead of Sanae or Norpiece. That and, like I said, time affords us some other ways of catching him if he is indeed Mafia.
In post 1176, Kilgamayan wrote:people supporting the idea that the eliminated player was Mafia but finding reasons to not support the train.
This is less strong a tell than you think
It's not as strong as the first thing I mentioned, but I think it still has a decent amount of oomph to it. Particularly in this specific context, in the event one believes Luke is town; Kakeguri's role was a very easy Mafia solution to a Town Luke problem, which means Mafia would presumably want to put additional effort into staving off a Kakeguri elimination.
(Yes, I'm aware I said Luke was "confirmed town" in 1062. I've since rethought that statement and realized it's not true, as alluded to in 1147 and mentioned in 1176.)
In post 1176, Kilgamayan wrote:Sanae's vote also looks for all the world like a casual Mafia slide onto a seemingly-easy train and it boggles the mind that no one that has posted since has commented on it. I'd like to hear from Norpiece in particular about why he had nothing to say about that vote given he was suspecting Sanae at the beginning of the day (to the point of voting Sanae in 1100).
I obviously noticed it, but i wanted to see where this would lead.
Norwe is spontaneous, has a stream-of-consciouness posting style, usually posts on catch-ups by commenting on past pages posts, gets rather fired up in certain moments in games, is relatively as playful as me in games and likes casual shitposting
I’d like Sanae to say a bit more about their PR t with Aaron? They’ve given us nothing so far. UNVOTE:
Norwe is spontaneous, has a stream-of-consciouness posting style, usually posts on catch-ups by commenting on past pages posts, gets rather fired up in certain moments in games, is relatively as playful as me in games and likes casual shitposting
Norwe is spontaneous, has a stream-of-consciouness posting style, usually posts on catch-ups by commenting on past pages posts, gets rather fired up in certain moments in games, is relatively as playful as me in games and likes casual shitposting
i know what sircakes role is from aaron and I don't think he is mafia from the role description and I can share what his role is if people want me to but I don't see the point in doing so?
My thoughts. (And apologies if this ends up a mess. This will be a long post with lots of detail, and some pre-emptive defense (that would generally be unneeded at this point) because I won't be able to answer questions on any of it)
Norwee
:
I stopped wanting to kill norwee for 3 reasons. Firstly, Aaron flipped town, and a lot of my suspicions on him were that he was trying to save scumAaron. Secondly, kakeguri joined lld's norwee push, when she could have just as easily followed onto the Aaron push. Thirdly [redacted]
~~~~
LLD
:
Lld's 1082 and 1085 did not sit well with me for a few reasons.
Spoiler:
In post 1082, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:Man I have this paranoia Luke is a godfather from how hard Luke pushed to be copped.
And Hider claim is an excellent way not to die even after being confirmed...
Luke needs to be voted out the day BEFORE ELO if he's still alive. Just saying.
I'm saying that I was and am concerned with a godfather on Luke, and it was my hope today that Luke and I would be parity cop'd so I could tell people to flip Luke to confirm me, and then I'd never be able to die and I'd be a perma innocent child treestump essentially.
Explicitly because I don't trust Luke's claim+request
So nothing to be done with it now, as far as things go. We can't and shouldn't try to eliminate Luke wiht a clear on him... and maybe he is just town and we're shooting elsewhere anyway
but if we get to a day before ELO, luke should be killed to ensure this isn't a thing, if he is sitll alive then
Firstly, I did not keep my wish at copping me for most of the time. At first I was basically advocating for Reg to be turned into a one shot loud cop, I then switched to making myself an innocent child (and I still stand by that being a bastard option for a godfather, although I now think it would not have been accepted for anyone) but then once I started scum reading Aaron I was more focused on getting Aaron's alignment revealed then my own, and repeatedly said that if he was not killed he should be copped. The only reason I ended up revealed at all was because LLD suggested the Parity cop over straight cop. So it felt like she misrepped my trajectory over Day 1 in order to put that Godfather thought in the thread
Spoiler:
In post 463, Lukewarm wrote:I was kinda at: Every single player wish for X player (their choice, not coordinated) to have their alignment publicly revealed. Then, he chooses one.
How is it a mafia role? I don't know who sent the wish. If its a mafia, role I can just ask my scumteam what they wished for. Additionally I can TELL them what to wish for.
Exactly that's why it could be scum..
Could be but he's effectively leashed to only do a protown wish.
Very much this.
I think that my earlier suggestion is still where I am leaning. Every one wishes:
"I wish for *Lukewarm's* alignment to be publicly revealed to the thread"
*(Everyone plugs in the name of whoever they want)
And then Reg chooses one. If no one's alignment is mod revealed tomorrow, we kill Reg
Anything we go with needs to be loud, so that we know if Reg followed through or not.
@Reg, can you ask if the above wish would be accepted
In post 615, Lukewarm wrote:I plan on wishing to gain the innocent child ability.
If reg chooses it, it will make me a confirmed townie that the scum team cannot kill directly
In post 700, Lukewarm wrote:On further thought, I am adjusting my ideal wish plans.
If we kill aaron, and he flips scum, then I think that Reg should grant a wish to reveal LLD's alignment.
If I am wrong, and aaron flips town, I would very much like the wish to go to revealing my alignment.
Reg said that we had to wish in twilight, so I think that both wishes should be submitted, and then Reg can use the flip to decide who to grant
In post 766, Lukewarm wrote:this is a role madness game. We cannot not kill just because people claim to have roles. Everyone has them.
If people are scared off of the Aaron wagon, then
I will be submitting a wish for Aaron's alignment to be revealed to the thread
Because from my pov, the Aaron wagon was gaining steam. And then two people stepped up to derail it. Norwee... and you.
Norwee, by coming up with contrived ways to argue against it and appearing to take a devil's advocate approach. And you by hard shifting the focus onto Norwee. Both before his claim.
Please explain how your logic tracks. Your logic here implies I am somehow... Bussing Norwee to save Aaron?
If so please vote Norwee and
if he flips wcum
you can have Aaron tomorrow for all I care.
No, I meant that unrelated to Norwee, you could have been trying to save Aaron. And Norwee was the pivot point. So, I was asking you the same questions I was asking Norwee. Which was to state a read on Aaron if you were gonna be derailing the Aaron wagon.
The "we can kill Aaron,
if Norwee flips scum
" line from you right here did not exactly help that feeling :/
but fine. I don't have the votes for Aaron anyways
VOTE: Norwee
I will be wishing for Aaron's alignment to be revealed.
Secondly, I claimed hider to her before the idea of Reg being able to grant wishes was in the thread. So this also feels like off "Hider claim is an excellent way not to die even after being confirmed" I claimed hider before I knew I could be confirmed. (Claimed hider at LLD in post 126. Reg claiming to grant wishes 421)
And finally, I think that this suspicion coming from her is more hair raising then coming from anyone else, because SHE was already the person in the "Reevaluate the night before ELO/MELO player." At least in my mind.
In post 177, Titus wrote:I concur that it's likely town and should not be tested until elo minus one day or melo.
All of that being said, I still don't understand why scum!LLD would divert the Aaron wagon, or why she would push me day 1 instead of just planning for Kakeguri to kill me. But, those are the reasons why I had a gut negative reaction to her posts.
~~~
SirCakez (and LLD again a little bit)
I am heavily suspicious of BOTH of them claiming to wish for me+LLD to be parity copped, but then that wish not making it to Reg. The mod confirmed that that wish (if made by me) would have been accepted. I also hate that both posted after I asked, and neither has responded.
I somewhat agree with Kilga's point about the Kakeguri wagon. The things that stands out to me were:
He had already stated a scum read on Kakeguri before getting cold feet on joining (+scum)
[I was actually leaning town on them, and almost made a town casing post, but decided that the read was not strong enough and that there was not enough time to stop it anyways ]
But, he never actually suggested a different wagon which he preferred (+town imo)
ATM, my Cakez read is a bit up in the air, and I think that figuring out his wish situation and figuring out his cryptic message about me would influence it quite a bit
~~~
Sanae:
Her role is confirmable, via getting Aaron's results on Cakes, AND Cakes results. So, I do not think that she is fake claiming here.
Out side of that though, my brain has retained zero thoughts on her slot, and I do not really have a read here.
~~~~
General:
I think that Yukari, Reg, and Norwee are town.
Gamma kind of feels like he started buddying me after I got confirmed, but he got on the Kakeguri wagon real early, so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
GTH, LLD is still town, but should be re-evaluated at Elo minus 1 or at Melo. Melo is actually better, if we end on Evens, because she does not mess with the player counts. Elo minus 1, I think that it is a hard re-eval on her, but she should always die in MElo because it is just always better then No Killing that day.
Norwe is spontaneous, has a stream-of-consciouness posting style, usually posts on catch-ups by commenting on past pages posts, gets rather fired up in certain moments in games, is relatively as playful as me in games and likes casual shitposting
Norwe is spontaneous, has a stream-of-consciouness posting style, usually posts on catch-ups by commenting on past pages posts, gets rather fired up in certain moments in games, is relatively as playful as me in games and likes casual shitposting
