Mini 1869- camn's revenge GAME OVER!

[mastina]

Mastina, I'm disappointed. Two possible strategies for drafting? Is that all you think of me, or is it all you could come up with yourself?

Of course there are hundreds of strategies for drafting.

But those strategies can be generalized to a level.
And the ultimate generalization is: wifom, or no wifom?
Wifom, or going for strategic picks?

All other strategies for picks fall into one of those two categories.
There's different types of wifom strategies: RNGing the entire pick process. Choosing players you think the town thinks would never think you'd pick. The like.
There's different types of optimal strategies: denying town players. Choosing individual scum players who are strong individually. Choosing players that're scum and have a record of working well together. Choosing scum who are unlikely to be caught. The like.
It's not impossible to hybridize the two...but that, itself, is a strategic pick. Nabbing a couple of players which fulfill your team requirements, and then having your third be something entirely random, for instance. But even there, certain generalities are going to be in place. Certain things are going to be more likely than others.

And that falls under the wifom-or-not binary, to which I say the latter is more probable for the most possibilities.

Certain players fulfill requirements for being scum across multiple criteria.

[mastina]

I might be able to break this PR on those grounds

I mean.
If we want to talk about breaking promises to the bear...
...There's one in particular I can break.

VOTE: Aeronaut.
But that's as good as you get from me.

[mastina]

I mean honestly I'd prefer my vote to still be on TheRealGin-N-Tonic because they haven't satisfied my needs yet for calling them town and there's lots of pressure on them and that pressure is good and mostly town and something I don't hate and by going off the wagon I weaken it and that's not something bad because a Gin lynch would in many ways be beneficial.

But strictly speaking, if we're talking players-who-have-literally-EVERY-reason-to-be-scum.
Aeronaut is by far the winner. No player fills as many criteria as he does. These criteria extend beyond Pine's picks, as I define them. Beyond Aeronaut as a town vs scum player, there's what Aeronaut has given us.

If we want a scum lynch, he's the best chance we have at getting one, better than any other player. I'd prefer not to push him yet which is why moving my vote off of TheRealGin-N-Tonic was probably premature. But justsayin'. This is where my vote stays unless I'm given damn good reason to shift it elsewhere because the only thing which'll change is the strength of my push here.

[mastina]

(That being said: yes he fills Pine's picks pretty well, too. I don't think camn knows about Aeronaut, so I don't think camn drafts Aeronaut. So that means that there's no time limit--Aeronaut could be Pine's first, second, or even third pick for the draft. He's up there though, in that Aeronaut fits most of the criteria I've defined. Strength as a scum player. Ability to manipulate players. Unknown factor, because he's reasonably obscure. He's not a big-name flashy player. He's low-key. He's effective. He's got the game history, so Pine knows about him. He works well with scumbuddies, so he's great to synchronize a scumteam. There's more, but you get the idea. Aeronaut is an ideal pick for Pine, and his play this game supports my theory because this is scumplay from Aeronaut. I've seen Aero as town, scum, and even third party, and I'm reasonably confident of this.)

[TheRealGin-N-Tonic]

FUCK

[TheRealGin-N-Tonic]

Literally the most frustrating feeling in the world is when you write up a long post and then chrome does fuck all/closes tab and i lose it

[Nachomamma8]

But those strategies can be generalized to a level.
And the ultimate generalization is: wifom, or no wifom?
Wifom, or going for strategic picks?

All picks will be made with both things taken into consideration.
"Is the WIFOM generated from this pick worth making it?"
"How strong is this player as scum?"
"How strong is this player as town?"

[Nachomamma8]

oh sweet jesus both of you knuckleheads are town

Legit laughed at this.
Like, hard laughed at this.

That being said, kinda surprised Nacho hasn't realized what I'm doing right now.

If your plan was "give Nacho a heart attack", then congratulations, you passed with flying colors.

[Monokuma]

[Prism]

Just a heads up, I'm most likely not going to be able to contribute much until probably Saturday.

Nacho flattery will get you nowhere but just as a heads up, that was the worst scumgame I've played in close to 3 years.

[Nachomamma8]

And that's what makes it so terrifying.

[camn]

VOTE COUNT 1 . 9

• Secret Agent Jin ---
  0 ( )
  L- 7
  
  
  BTD6_MAKER ---------
  0 ( )
  L- 7
  
  
  TheRealGin-N-Tonic -
  3 ( Monokuma, Prism, Secret Agent Jin, )
  L- 4
  
  
  Nachomamma8 --------
  1 ( TheRealGin-N-Tonic, )
  L- 6
  
  
  Fate ---------------
  3 ( Aeronaut, Aristophanes, Vaxkiller, )
  L- 4
  
  
  drealmerz7 ---------
  0 ( )
  L- 7
  
  
  Monokuma -----------
  2 ( Nachomamma8, Fate, )
  L- 5
  
  
  mastina ------------
  3 ( drealmerz7, SirCakez, BTD6_MAKER, )
  L- 4
  
  
  Aeronaut -----------
  1 ( mastina, )
  L- 6
  
  
  Prism --------------
  0 ( )
  L- 7
  
  
  SirCakez -----------
  0 ( )
  L- 7
  
  
  Vaxkiller ----------
  0 ( )
  L- 7
  
  
  Aristophanes -------
  0 ( )
  L- 7
  
  
  
  Not Voting -
  0 ( Pine )

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to Lynch
Deadline is in (expired on 2017-01-22 18:00:00)

[Nachomamma8]

gin come sheep me bud

My gut and off memory is that I find the bear distasteful.

Only thing that's still been irking me is that I can't stop thinking that either both you and Mastin are scum and the entrance to the game was scum theatre or your both town.

No point in not saying what's on my mind, it's just that, with Mastin's gambit, she never has to put herself in risk by lynching you, if she never actually tries to lynch you.

Do you understand where I'm coming from? I can't help but feel like it's fake.

I don't really understand where you're coming from, no.

I understand the paranoia about mastina-me scum theatre, sure; I don't understand why you think that it's the case, but I understand having paranoia about it. I don't understand why you rule out mastintown-mescum or vice versa, and I don't understand why you thinking about these possibilities has paralyzed you into inaction. If you suspect the bear, vote the bear. If you suspect me, vote me.

Would you say that Mastina has not tried to lynch me or push a wagon on me this game?

[Monokuma]

Actually we understand exactly where Gin is coming from.

[Nachomamma8]

Actually we understand exactly where Gin is coming from.

Yes, you do!

That's why you require PUNISHMENT!

HUEHUEHUHEUHEUEHUHEUEHUEUEUHEHEHEHEHEHEHEHEHEHEHEHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAAAAAAAAAAA

[Monokuma]

mastina comes in guns blazing, ranting and raving that she's going to 1v1 you blah blah blah blah blah blah blah for pages and pages

Your entrance: (eloquently) mastina no.

mastina: oh ok (unvotes)

anyone who wasn't pinged by that is either not paying attention or seeing something we aren't.

[Prism]

The bigger thing is that it requires me to read mastina's posts. While I love mafia and want to appreciate the efforts of others, I would probably get more marginal benefit from and finish sooner if I spent the time I would spend on Mastina's posts on reading the tax code instead.

[Monokuma]

Conflicted on Fate. There was some interaction awhile back which I really felt was towny from Fate, but it was with Pine, and it could have just been totally scripted, and I'm still tempted to throw anything involving Pine out the window. On the other hand, there have been inconsistencies we've pointed out with his general stance not to mention the fact that literally he just sheeped his top scumread because someone he's said he definitely won't vote has a read he doesn't agree with. I'm failing to see the internal town motivation there when you put all that together; it just feels like too much dissonance.

[Nachomamma8]

ah yes, the old "hey you should push the hell out of me and I should half-assedly dismiss it and then you should back off immediately" scum theatre strategy - my personal favorite!

[Nachomamma8]

Conflicted on Fate. There was some interaction awhile back which I really felt was towny from Fate, but it was with Pine, and it could have just been totally scripted, and I'm still tempted to throw anything involving Pine out the window. On the other hand, there have been inconsistencies we've pointed out with his general stance not to mention the fact that literally he just sheeped his top scumread because someone he's said he definitely won't vote has a read he doesn't agree with. I'm failing to see the internal town motivation there when you put all that together; it just feels like too much dissonance.

so you think that he's scum who forgot that i was his top scumread?
why do you think he'd abandon his push on me when he did as scum?

[TheRealGin-N-Tonic]

Okay, now the next step in this process, how does telling you all that help push a scum agenda?

There are three (not mutually exclusive, in fact they're pretty inclusive) reasons why you would post those things:
-Pride: you have already admitted that you take great amounts in your scumgame, so boasting about it even as you are playing it is not something you are above doing.
-Arrogance: you don't think talking about your scumgame can make a player catch you in your scumgame, because you assume players will miss the important parts and go on a wild goose chase, ignoring the actually telling hints you give. In short, you can explain to the town exactly what you are doing, and they won't see you doing it, at least that's your assumption.
-Pragmatism, and the actual game advantage to have done so. Rather than being part of your ego as the above two are, this one serves to grant you an in-game advantage. The things you have shared and talked about are not things which only you could give. Anyone who bothered to do their research could dig up the evidence you yourself provide. Anyone could make the points you yourself have made. But by having made the points, by having offered the research, you'd hope that would make you look town. And failing that? If people didn't assume you looked town, you can force the issue...by asking the question you just did, right here and now.

Pride: I've yet to do so but when I do, I'll make sure you can use that as a valid point, however under the burden of proof, you can not find a game where I've boasted about my scum play as scum, so you're in the wrong here. It's a simple assumption you've made and assumptions are allowed to be wrong.

Arrogance: I'm not actually an idiot...I take wording very seriously as often the devil is in the details. One thing is that often times, when two things unrelated to each other are said enough times in the same context, it will eventually be perceived as true. It's similar but different to the guilty by association fallacy. Now, you're half right about me being an idiot because I think I can just say fuck all as town and get away with cuz town; however I need to start understanding that even tho I don't HAVE to be alive, I need to prevent mislynches as they're still bad for town.

Pragmatism: I'm about confused on what you're accusing me of here. It reads to me that because I decided to do town things to fake town, not because I am town. I also have never asked people to town read me, I don't know where that came from because I know I'm scum read and it won't likely change. Also, for some reason, asking you to follow your own advice that you look for the scum agenda a player is pushing instead of what is at face value made me look more scummier in your eyes and that doesn't make sense to me.

Final note, when did I ask people to town read me or force the issue? It feels like a strawman because I dont remember saying that.

[Monokuma]

Iunno, we've had some second thoughts on Gin. mastina, normally I'd just look in your ISO for reasons Aeronaut is scum because on this page you don't site anything specific on this page and just site "Pine would pick them" and "meta" which are well and good but don't help me. Issue is, your ISO is... difficult to skim, and when you do take clear, noticable shots at Aeronaut all you're really saying is "scumposting".

Sell us. Really. We're all ears.

Conflicted on Fate. There was some interaction awhile back which I really felt was towny from Fate, but it was with Pine, and it could have just been totally scripted, and I'm still tempted to throw anything involving Pine out the window. On the other hand, there have been inconsistencies we've pointed out with his general stance not to mention the fact that literally he just sheeped his top scumread because someone he's said he definitely won't vote has a read he doesn't agree with. I'm failing to see the internal town motivation there when you put all that together; it just feels like too much dissonance.

so you think that he's scum who forgot that i was his top scumread?
why do you think he'd abandon his push on me when he did as scum?

Forgot? No, not what's being suggested. From a scum!Fate perspective, he thought he could convincingly pivot his vote. I'm saying that because of the reasons I listed; it wasn't convincing. I think town!Fate would have hesitated on that switch more. I think. Maybe. Then again, this is Fate we're talking about... huh.

[Nachomamma8]

From a scum!Fate perspective, he thought he could convincingly pivot his vote.

There are too many pivots for Fate as scum to think he could convincingly pivot his vote. There are too many pivots for them to be anything but someone who truly doesn't give a fuck about whether his pivots are convincing or not.

[Prism]

Monokuma you were doing great up until that last post, ew.

[Nachomamma8]

Which doesn't necessarily make him town on its own but it does make your "TOO MUCH DISSONANCE" a pile of nothing.