Mini 1907: Oddrole Mafia IV (Game over)

[Chickadee]

I'd be willing to vote for Java, massive, or A50.

I usually play pretty conservatively with my vote, and now I have 2 votes.

I already explained why I stole Massive's vote. Pretty much everyone was SRing him yesterday. Not just me.

[GuiltyLion]

I already explained why I stole Massive's vote. Pretty much everyone was SRing him yesterday. Not just me.

but do you actually think that he's scum?

[Almost50]

@GL:

I probably should admit that my reasons to TR Chicka appear much weaker than yours to SR her in a vacuum. I felt Chicka was being pushed for weak sauce on D1 (like her "kudos" for not dying comment). It also felt like she was being relentlessly pushed and no one seemed to care or oppose that push. That gave me the impression she was Town and Scum don't mind letting her burn.

Her concern about revealing "too much info" in early game also looked town-motivated to me.

In VC 1.08 she had 4 votes on her {Chickadee (4) [L-3]: Desperado, SnarkySnowman, boring, Creature}, and you would notice I had objected to the last duo voting there with unconvincing reasoning in post 112

From that moment on I guess it became a psychological/emotional conviction of mine that Chicka had to be Town. Then podo added the 5th vote on her and refused to explain. It was page 6 still and Chicka was put @L-2 already.

Then Desp comes in and says she's scum because she coloured her readlist??

I mean, it really didn't help when there was not one legit reason made to vote her early on, so I guess I skipped the rest of it.

I now realize she was the 4th vote on Rauther although she had him as one of the greens (the 2 people she felt most confident in them being Town) in that readlist.

I also see that today only you and Desp have voted her, so it could be that Scum are feeling more confident in not bussing, but then WHO are Scum on her 5-players wagon? boring flipped green already, and there's enough reason to believe podo was town by then.

Or maybe, that wagon had no Group Scum on it? On that case 2 scums must be in me, TheBrie, Java & massive. Unless Snarky was bussing there and is not bussing today, in which case only one more scum remains in the 4 persons listed.

But that's all assuming Chicka will flip red for certain, so what if she doesn't? We KNOW she's not goo, so we know we either enter the night as 5T vs 3S or -more likely- 4T/3S/1G, and if Scum successfully kill a Townie we lose majority already.

[Almost50]

There's no need to rush things though. The day is still young and I would rather we thought everything through thoroughly before we decided on the lynch.

[Desperado]

Then Desp comes in and says she's scum because she coloured her readlist??

this really wasn't what i said but this is the 2nd time this exact thing has happened so maybe its me

[eagerSnake]

VC 2.05

Chickadee (2) [L-3]: Desperado, GuiltyLion

Not Voting (7): TheBrie, SnarkySnowman, Creature, Almost50, Javajoe24, Chickadee, Chickadee

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Day 2 deadline in (expired on 2017-06-03 16:50:45).

[TheBrie]

Does nobody notice that there are strong reasons to think JavaJoe is town? Not conclusive reasons, and not very good town, but enough to put him as a no lynch today.

I'd rather not go for A50 today, and Snarky isn't a great choice.

That leaves Chick, Creature, and Guilty. I'm uncertain of Creature and Massive and Chick aren't both scum.

[Javajoe24]

You said my read list made no sense, but I was using a process of elimination of who is left that is not confirmed town to me, yes, I find it likely that massive and chicka are not both scum, but I do not know which is more likely scum at this point. I will have to do more research on who voted who on day 1 and get back to you.

Also, I feel like I have given enough proof of my towniness but I will full claim if you honestly don't believe me, and then you will know I am town, because I literally could not make this role up... haha. I don't play this game enough and I could not find this role on any of the role lists in the mods first post.

[Javajoe24]

Ok, so I took the time to write out all votes done in the game by each player so far in order, this is what I got:

A50

- Javajoe, Desperado, Javajoe, SS, Massive, Creature
Not Voted: boring, Chickadee, GinghamDog, GL, podo, Rauth, TheBrie

Chicka

- Javajoe, Desperado, boring, Desperado, SS, massive, Rauth, SS
Not Voted: A50, Creature, Gingham, GL, podo, TheBrie

Creature

- A50, Massive, Chicka, Desperado, GinghamDog, A50
Not Voted: boring, GL, Javajoe, podo, Rauth, SS, TheBrie

Desperado

- Chicka, Rauth, Chicka
Not Voted: A50, boring, Creature, GinghamDog, GL, Javajoe, Massive, Podo, SS, TheBrie

GL

- Creature, Massive, Desperado, Chicka, Chicka
Not Voted: A50, boring, GinghamDog, Javajoe, Podo, Rauth, SS, TheBrie

Javajoe

- Chicka, GinghamDog, SS, Massive, Rauth
Not Voted: A50, boring, Creature, Desperado, GL, Podo, TheBrie

Massive

- GL, Javajoe, Chicka, GinghamDog, Chicka, Chicka
Not Voted: A50, boring, Creature, Desperado, Podo, Rauth, SS, TheBrie

SS

- Chicka, A50, Rauth
Not Voted: boring, Creature, Desperado, GinghamDog, GL, Javajoe, Massive, Podo, TheBrie

I found some things interesting in this....

First, look at the votes of A50 and Chicka, they are very very similar with minor discrepancies.
Second, If Massive is scum, based on this list, I cannot find 2 other people that would be scum with him, I am much more inclined to believe Chicka is scum out of the two.
Third, If Chicka is scum, the only candidate I see for a partner is A50, and the other partner has been bussing her. I find this more likely then having massive being bussed by both his partners.

I know you will say there is more people that did not vote for massive, but look who those people are: Desperado and SS, and Desperado has been cleared as conf. town, and SS is somewhat cleared by podo.

I am more then happy with a Chicka lynch today

VOTE: Chicka

[Javajoe24]

And yes, I was Town reading A50 before this, and am still conflicted, trying to remember why I was town reading him, pretty sure he had claimed something that seemed town before, but cant remember what he claimed, this is why I am more happy with a Chicka lynch and not going for an A50 lynch.

[Javajoe24]

But now looking at it again, we are leaving out the possibility that Creature is not the goo, and is the mafia (which I find unlikely, because if creature isn't goo, he is likely town, mafia would not suggest turning all into goo like he did), which I think we should not eliminate all possibilities yet.

[Javajoe24]

possible scum teams calculated by having no more than 1 person bussing a scum:

A50, Chicka, GL
A50, Chicka, SS
A50, Chicka, Creature
A50, Chicka, Javajoe
Chicka, GL, SS
Chicka, GL, Javajoe
Chicka, SS, Creature,
A50, GL, Javajoe

Chicka -7/8
A50 - 5/8
GL- 4/8
Javajoe - 3/8
SS - 3/8
Creature - 2/8

I may have missed a pairing, but that was all I could find where only one scum was bussed by a partner, let me know if I missed one and I will add it. I think this clearly shows that Chicka is the correct lynch today.

[Almost50]

Alright. I think you managed to confuse me enough. How is massive confirmed to you? I get both TheBrie and Desp are Town, but for you to include yourself in the possible scum teams and leave massive out is weird to say the least.

And LOL @ me being scum with you & Chicka.

[Javajoe24]

He is by no means confirmed, it's all by process of elimination and probabilities. I am counting on the fact that yesterday the scum team either did not buss a partner because they did not need to, or they only bussed one partner. The idea that scum would buss two partners in one day seems low to me. So with that in mind, I looked for what people voted who, and when it came to massive, no other players fit into his scum team without having bussed another possible scum as well. Also note that I left the confirmed town out of the equation or their might have been more scum teams that did include massive. If I missed a scum team please point it out, because I freely admit I may have missed some as it was early in the morning.

[Javajoe24]

possible scum teams calculated by having no more than 1 person bussing a scum:

A50, Chicka, GL
A50, Chicka, SS
A50, Chicka, Creature
A50, Chicka, Javajoe
Chicka, GL, SS
Chicka, GL, Javajoe
Chicka, SS, Creature,
A50, GL, Javajoe

Chicka -7/8
A50 - 5/8
GL- 4/8
Javajoe - 3/8
SS - 3/8
Creature - 2/8

I may have missed a pairing, but that was all I could find where only one scum was bussed by a partner, let me know if I missed one and I will add it. I think this clearly shows that Chicka is the correct lynch today.

Wow, I was more groggy than I thought, I missed one that includes massive. Although if massive is scum, based on my hypothesis this would be the only possible scum team.

Other possible team:
Massive, SS, creature

This puts the total at

Chicka - 7/9
A50 - 5/9
GL - 4/9
SS - 4/9
Javajoe - 3/9
Creature - 3/9
Massive - 1/9

Which means chicka is still the best option for a lynch today.

[Chickadee]

My town game is so awful.

Maybe y'all should just policy me.

Whatev.

[Javajoe24]

It's not a policy lynch if everyone thinks your scum. Also, for me, if you somehow flip town, then it limits it to 2 scum teams, one of which includes me, which would mean I would know who the scum is

[massive]

I think it's Joe / A50 / ???

I don't think the same two scum are on both of these wagons:

massive (6) [L-1]: podoboq, Almost50, Chickadee, GinghamDog, Javajoe24, boring
Rautherdir (7) [Lynch]: Desperado, SnarkySnowman, GinghamDog, Chickadee, Javajoe24, podoboq, boring

so it's either Joe or Chickadee; I think at this point I'm more likely to pick Joe. And I think both are likely to have two scum on them, which means A50 and Snarky probably.

If I had a vote it'd be on Joe.

[Javajoe24]

The only two teams that would make since with me and A50 together would be either chickadee or GL.

[SnarkySnowman]

Joe is getting more and more scummy

[Javajoe24]

I told you guys earlier I scum hunt better when I have info to go on, now I have a whole days worth of voting to base things on. If one more person says I am scummy I am going to full claim. You are wasting your time thinking I am scum and not looking for the real scum. I am trying to give you a guide with this voting chart.

[massive]

The voting chart is dependent on only one of a group of three scum voting for any of them. That's not conclusive. And claiming watcher or tracker isn't proof of town either.

[massive]

(Also, GL is on neither of those wagons, so that certainly gives him a chance at being the ???, but I feel like my townread on GL is better than vote analysis.)

[Javajoe24]

Can you elaborate on your GL town read and why it is better than vote analysis, which to me is a factual and rational way to scum hunt?

[GuiltyLion]

I now realize she was the 4th vote on Rauther although she had him as one of the greens (the 2 people she felt most confident in them being Town) in that readlist.

great point - so what do you think that says about her alignment?

But that's all assuming Chicka will flip red for certain, so what if she doesn't? We KNOW she's not goo, so we know we either enter the night as 5T vs 3S or -more likely- 4T/3S/1G, and if Scum successfully kill a Townie we lose majority already.

You could literally cross out "Chicka" here and replace it with a number of other essentially cleared non-Goo players in the game (Snarky, Brie, Desperado). This isn't analysis, this is fluff pretending to be analysis.