Mini 1907: Oddrole Mafia IV (Game over)

TheBrie · Post Post #1100 (ISO) » Sat May 27, 2017 12:07 am

I just realized I got the numbers wrong. Bit in bold is fixed.

In post 1099, TheBrie wrote:
If town!Chick is lynched and Scum!a50 is vigged, we're 2-2-1 and probably dead.
If scum!Chick is lynched and scum!a50 is vigged, we're
3-1-1 and alright.

If scum!Chick is Lynched an a50 is town he better not use his CPR. If Desp kills him we're 3-2-1, if he doesn't we're 4-2-1. Probably best to in case he's scum.

TheBrie · Post Post #1101 (ISO) » Sat May 27, 2017 12:12 am

In post 1082, Javajoe24 wrote:Put it this way, if you are saying A50 is town, you are saying the scum team is me, creature, and Chickadee, as we all are voting A50 and scum has had plenty of time to hammer. Do you honestly think that team is possible??

I doubt it's possible. I'm still inclined to seeing you as town.

So A50 can't be town unless Podo's information about Snarky is wrong. So based on my prior reasoning I should probably hammer A50 now. But I'd rather wait a little longer, we've got plenty of time.

I've just run a calculation for how likely scum are to succeed at the nk. Assuming one townie with a revive and no other protection or interference. Also random nk since they probably don't know who has revive or who is goo.
With 1 nk: 67% chance of killing town, 17% of killing goo, 17% chance of missing.
With 2 nk: There's only about 3% chance of no town dying and 37% chance of a goo dying. The math is a bit complex because there's an overlap between the two., but I think that means theres more than a 60% chance that two town will die if we let scum keep a second kill.

And after all that I realized there probably is some protection of interference in place seeing no one dies N0. So our chances are better than that and the math will be too hard.

It's probably slightly better to lynch A50 than Chick, especially if Desp can CPR kill the other. However, unless Chick is town, or we fail to kill any scum day or night, we'll survive.

TheBrie · Post Post #1102 (ISO) » Sat May 27, 2017 12:18 am

In post 1099, TheBrie wrote:.
So if they're both scum it might be better to lynch A50. Any mislynching Chick is slightly better that mislynching A50.

I should post when I'm tired. That read opposite to what I meant to say. Mislynching Chick is worse as I indicated in the last post.

I started writing this stuff 13 hours ago, then had to go out and it's all gotten disorganized.

Almost50 · Post Post #1103 (ISO) » Sat May 27, 2017 2:50 am

In post 1097, eagerSnake wrote:
Prodding Almost50.

Picking up prod. Didn't even know the game is still ongoing.

Javajoe24 · Post Post #1104 (ISO) » Sat May 27, 2017 3:09 am

I agree with your conclusion, but I would just like to point out a couple of your numbers are wrong, both for not accounting for chickas vote thief and just a couple of simple errors. It basically comes to the same end result though.

SnarkySnowman · Post Post #1105 (ISO) » Sat May 27, 2017 7:16 am

prodge

Javajoe24 · Post Post #1106 (ISO) » Sat May 27, 2017 7:54 am

Is all A50 and SS going to do is prd dodge? How about some actual info. I have been waiting on a claim from you A50

Almost50 · Post Post #1107 (ISO) » Sat May 27, 2017 8:32 am

My claim will not change your mind, so just hammer away.

I was a Compulsive Visitor. You would have seen me visiting someone each but I neither would have harmed them nor would I have gained any info from it. However, I got the CPR ability added to me during D1, and thus I had the choice to either visit someone with no effect or use the CPR on them.

Almost50 · Post Post #1108 (ISO) » Sat May 27, 2017 8:33 am

Btw, on N0 I targeted GL.

TheBrie · Post Post #1109 (ISO) » Sat May 27, 2017 9:57 am

In post 1104, Javajoe24 wrote:I agree with your conclusion, but I would just like to point out a couple of your numbers are wrong, both for not accounting for chickas vote thief and just a couple of simple errors. It basically comes to the same end result though.

I didn't leave Chick alive to use vote thief rhe next day in any of my scenarios. There is a good point there. If we don't lynch Chick today, there's a chance she could still steal a vote. If kills resolve last, then we may still be down a vote though Scun won't be up one.

TheBrie · Post Post #1110 (ISO) » Sat May 27, 2017 10:05 am

In post 1108, Almost50 wrote:Btw, on N0 I targeted GL.

If this is true and you're town, we then know Guilty isn't Goo.

Almost50 · Post Post #1111 (ISO) » Sat May 27, 2017 10:23 am

I never said GL was goo. I explicitly said it was Creature, and only Creature.

We know it's not you (not visiting ability) and not Desp (he still had his abilities on D1). It's not GL (I visited him N0) and it isn't me (I used my CPR last night). It isn't Chicka or massive (she stole his vote), and it isn't SS (podo supposedly visited him on N0). Java supposedly knows who received a BP so is not goo either. It's Creature and he should not be targeted by Town at night.

Javajoe24 · Post Post #1112 (ISO) » Sat May 27, 2017 10:32 am

In post 1111, Almost50 wrote:I never said GL was goo. I explicitly said it was Creature, and only Creature.

We know it's not you (not visiting ability) and not Desp (he still had his abilities on D1). It's not GL (I visited him N0) and it isn't me (I used my CPR last night). It isn't Chicka or massive (she stole his vote), and it isn't SS (podo supposedly visited him on N0). Java supposedly knows who received a BP so is not goo either. It's Creature and he should not be targeted by Town at night.

This is a very good point, I already assumed it was creature but that is proof

Javajoe24 · Post Post #1113 (ISO) » Sat May 27, 2017 11:04 am

UNVOTE:

Just until I consider your claim and figure out a couple of other factors.

TheBrie · Post Post #1114 (ISO) » Sat May 27, 2017 5:04 pm

Only one problem with that reasoning. If Chick is scum then Massive could be the goo. It was Java who had thought GL could possibly the goo if Creature wasn't.
So no one target Massive either.

Chickadee · Post Post #1115 (ISO) » Sun May 28, 2017 2:34 am

Oh god day is still going...

eagerSnake · Post Post #1116 (ISO) » Sun May 28, 2017 2:38 am

VC 2.12

Almost50 (3) [L-2]: Creature, Chickadee, Chickadee
Chickadee (3) [L-2]: Desperado, GuiltyLion, Almost50

Not Voting (3): TheBrie, SnarkySnowman, Javajoe24

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Day 2 deadline in (expired on 2017-06-03 16:50:45).

Prodding Desperado.

Javajoe24 · Post Post #1117 (ISO) » Sun May 28, 2017 3:19 am

We have more than 6 days left in the day, why do you and A50 sound like your want the day to end already?

Almost50 · Post Post #1118 (ISO) » Sun May 28, 2017 3:34 am

In post 1103, Almost50 wrote:
In post 1097, eagerSnake wrote:
Prodding Almost50.
Picking up prod. Didn't even know the
game
is still ongoing.

In post 1103, Almost50 wrote:
Picking up prod. Didn't even know the
game
is still ongoing.

That's what I said. It was neither a complaint nor wasn't a reference to the day.

Javajoe24 · Post Post #1119 (ISO) » Sun May 28, 2017 3:48 am

So you are saying that you thought the game had ended already?

Desperado · Post Post #1120 (ISO) » Sun May 28, 2017 5:36 am

ya they're both scum

Desperado · Post Post #1121 (ISO) » Sun May 28, 2017 5:37 am

almost is scum but he's probably also telling the truth about guiltylyon

Chickadee · Post Post #1122 (ISO) » Sun May 28, 2017 6:07 am

In post 1117, Javajoe24 wrote:We have more than 6 days left in the day, why do you and A50 sound like your want the day to end already?

Ive lost all motivation because either way y'all plan to kill me. Give me a reason not to look forward to days end.

Javajoe24 · Post Post #1123 (ISO) » Sun May 28, 2017 6:18 am

If you were town you would be actively trying to help us even if we don't believe you so that we have info when you flip.

And thank you Desperado for seeing things from my point of view. Do you agree that since both A50 and chicka are scum it is more important that we kill A50 today over chicka. So far, the two people pushing hardest to lynch chicka over A50 is GL and A50. A50 is understandable, GL is not. Also, did you guys not notice that A50 when put under pressure and put up to L-1 actively tried to convince us it was a bad idea to night kill chickadee, even when he was voting chickadee?

Desperado · Post Post #1124 (ISO) » Sun May 28, 2017 6:40 am

In post 1123, Javajoe24 wrote:If you were town you would be actively trying to help us even if we don't believe you so that we have info when you flip.

And thank you Desperado for seeing things from my point of view. Do you agree that since both A50 and chicka are scum it is more important that we kill A50 today over chicka. So far, the two people pushing hardest to lynch chicka over A50 is GL and A50. A50 is understandable, GL is not. Also, did you guys not notice that A50 when put under pressure and put up to L-1 actively tried to convince us it was a bad idea to night kill chickadee, even when he was voting chickadee?

no

better to kill chick today and then force almost to double cross me with the cpr ability