Mini 2014: Succinct Mafia (Over)

[Umlaut]

@Hiraki

I'm not unmoved by your defense, but that's more of a reason you might not be scum with Pine than a reason you can't be (which is what would get you out of the lynchpool). Right now I'm much more interested in arguments for adding people to the potential Pinebuddy list than removing them, for reasons you'll see below. Anyway, as long as Eevee flips red you're clear in my book.

Important

This analysis does not require you to believe I'm town.
It does require you to believe I'm not scum with Pine, which I think should be obvious.

Suppose

arguendo

we know 1041 is correct in the sense that, conditional on scum!Pine, both remaining scum are somewhere in the tl;dr.

If Pine is scum, the game is already over. Even if we mislynch Eevee today, we go to d4 with a lynch pool of {Hiraki, MafMen, Lycanfire}. We have one mislynch left. We win.

If Eevee is scum, things are much messier. Even granting 1040 only gets us down to {TrinityNZ, MathBlade, Wisdom, Mafmen, Lycanfire}. Three of these are town. We need every lynch we can get and we definitely don't want to have wasted one on town!Pine.

So, given the conclusions of 1041, correct strategy is to lynch Eevee today to maximize our win probability.

VOTE: EeveeLution Army (L−2)

I'm highly confident none of TrinityNZ, Dunnstral, or LuckyOtter can be scum with Pine, and quite confident on Wisdom as well. MathBlade is a possibility but still far less plausible than the other three and I'm really not scumreading him in the first place. If you don't like my vote, convince me I'm wrong about one of these. I actually do think Pine is more likely scum than Eevee, so if I don't have a game-breaking strategy in either case I'll likely move over.

[Dunnstral]

[*]

Dunnstral:

Unlikely based on 1030 alone: it seems to slip that Dunn didn't pay close attention to Pine's posts and really didn't know what he would answer, both of which are unlikely between scumbuddies who would have used daytalk to plan this move in advance. It's a fairly subtle slip that I don't believe scum would think to fake. I actually had Dunn at "plausible" before noticing this.

1030 is the wrong post, which post did you mean?

[Umlaut]

It was 1013, thanks for noticing. You asked Pine who he protected after he had already said in his claim. Especially where you yourself placed intent on him, if it were all an act I'd expect that you'd have worked out that detail of the claim in the PT and you wouldn't forget it.

[Wisdom]

, correct strategy is to lynch Eevee today to maximize our win probability.

youre right, lynching the jk maximizes the win probability of one side

[EeveeLution Army]

You do realize its 10× better lynching pine than me right?
If i really am jailkeeper(which i am) i can still block scum tonight after pines gone. Its just more logical

[Umlaut]

Eevee, if we have an autowin that doesn't matter. There's no such thing as 10x better than winning.

I'm highly confident none of TrinityNZ, Dunnstral, or LuckyOtter can be scum with Pine, and quite confident on Wisdom as well. MathBlade is a possibility but still far less plausible than the other three and I'm really not scumreading him in the first place. If you don't like my vote, convince me I'm wrong about one of these.

To clarify, this is a thing I actually want people to do. If you feel I'm wrong or just overconfident on one of these, please tell me.

[MathBlade]

V/La until tomorrow

It’s actually better to lynch Trinity and then let scum NK the protective and then lynch the leftovers but I don’t think people will do that.

Will respond to stuff when off V/LA

[TrinityNZ]

UNVOTE: Math

VOTE: Eevee

[Umlaut]

UNVOTE: Eevee

Don't like him at L-1 without any actual response to my case for voting him.

(Also unannounced L-1 is bad and you should feel bad.)

[Lycanfire]

We should resolve the protective claims today.

I'm leaning Pine but that's only because Eevee hasn't done much that I've seen beyond raising a lot of suspicion on Wisdom, which makes her subsequent SR of Pine reasonable? I'm still catching up though.

[MathBlade]

VOTE: Unvote

Nah I haven’t heard a good reason why we should resolve them. 50/50 odds of hitting wrong.

If Army is the protective high chance of kill stopping
If Pine is the protective less of a chance but still some
If I am the protective and I die then no one has to play with me huzzah

Everyone wins.
Btw if I am the protective I am a bodyguard.

We win if scum shoot the protective as the lynch would be on who we suspected the partner was and it gives us more to work with if scum shoot the protective.

[EeveeLution Army]

I am only fine with this decision if mafmen is the lynch

[TrinityNZ]

UNVOTE: Eevee

Don't like him at L-1 without any actual response to my case for voting him.

(Also unannounced L-1 is bad and you should feel bad.)

Sorry I hadn’t realised.

<<< Duplicate post deleted. >>>

[LuckyOtter]

Speaking of Mafmen, he hasn't posted here since Monday, pre-claim business

@Mastina, prod please

If we're deciding between claims, Eevee's seems more plausible and I don't see Eevee making that counter as scum at that moment. Eevee's play does seem scummier but it just feels like a bad move lynching him.

If we're going to let the NK resolve it (which really isn't a bad idea), I have no clue anymore. Trinity keeps giving me bad vibes.

@Trinity

Maybe you didn't see it, but immediately following your Math vote I asked you to explain the basis of it.
--
Math, are you trying to get a hypoclaim going because you think it plausible both Pine and Eevee are lying?
--
Umlaut, most of your argumentation depends on associatives and there are a couple I'm not sure about. Maf's straight up "Pine is town without a doubt" seems pretty bold for a scumpartner, don't you think? If anything, it makes more sense to me if Maf is scum and knows Pine is town, or Maf is town and is just being opaque with his reads (as he seems to like to do, given that he called anyone who suspected you "daft" without explanation until asked for it).

The second problem is the Trinity+Eevee combo. Trinity was scumreading Pine, then after Eevee's counterclaim, scum!Trinity would have been able to sit on a Pine vote and stay out of the way and get the mislynch. Instead, scum!Trinity busses her partner who just counterclaimed? It seems equally plausible (or implausible) that scum!Trinity could have been trying to bus scum!Pine who appeared to be going down, then took the opportunity to change her mind as soon as Pine claimed (which she might have known he would do anyway). Following Eevee's counter, Trinity decides to believe Pine over Eevee, for pretty underwhelming reasons.

So I don't know. Sticking to Pine for now.

[Umlaut]

Rather than explain again why hypoclaiming is fatuous here, I think I'll just short-circuit it by starting a massclaim. If we get a third protective claim, we lynch them all until we hit both liars.

I'm a Vanilla Townie.

There is no reason to oppose this unless you think a guarantee of lynching two scum in three days is a bad deal, so everyone please claim in your next post.

Maf's straight up "Pine is town without a doubt" seems pretty bold for a scumpartner, don't you think? If anything, it makes more sense to me if Maf is scum and knows Pine is town, or Maf is town and is just being opaque with his reads (as he seems to like to do, given that he called anyone who suspected you "daft" without explanation until asked for it).

I'm not totally sold on this point (I don't think it's all that unlikely for a laconic poster like MafMen especially given that it often gets townread), but that's beside the point. If MafMen is not a likely partner of Pine then that only strengthens the argument for lynching Eevee. Remember, my central point is "If Pine is scum he has so few possible buddies that we'll win even if we mislynch Eevee today."

The second problem is the Trinity+Eevee combo. Trinity was scumreading Pine, then after Eevee's counterclaim, scum!Trinity would have been able to sit on a Pine vote and stay out of the way and get the mislynch. Instead, scum!Trinity busses her partner who just counterclaimed? It seems equally plausible (or implausible) that scum!Trinity could have been trying to bus scum!Pine who appeared to be going down, then took the opportunity to change her mind as soon as Pine claimed (which she might have known he would do anyway). Following Eevee's counter, Trinity decides to believe Pine over Eevee, for pretty underwhelming reasons.

Yeah, I can buy this, I noticed it myself and if it's busing it seems like a bad choice. I'm not particularly scumreading Trinity in the first place and if I had to choose a lynch order now in the event of Eevee redflip I would not put her near the front. This

is

relevant because if we can narrow down Eevee's partners enough then mislynching town!Pine is not nearly so bad and I should just vote whoever's scummier.

[MathBlade]

I would rather scum tell us who scum is if I am not the protective or to eat a bullet for said protective.

If I am the protective then I want scum to have to wifom between me or not.
If there are two scum CCing each other then if I die protective then both slots have explaining to do and start the “explanations” with Pine.
If there is one scum it is almost certainly Pine and Army fake claimed out of frustration.

We gain much more forcing the wifom than we ever do lynching in it.

Because scum don’t know if I am protective or not only I do

I would really prefer Trinity. But MafMen also acceptable

[MathBlade]

And yay Umlaut is scum.

Mass claim is useless but you’re trying to stop my fucking with scum’s heads.

Anyone who hasn’t claimed protective claims VT. There is zero investigative to validate

Mass claim is a useless waste of spam [Trinity,Umlaut,Mafmen] my lynchpool for today

VOTE: Unvote

[Umlaut]

I would rather scum tell us who scum is if I am not the protective or to eat a bullet for said protective.

If you are a bodyguard than you never guard Eevee or Pine because you know they are both lying and almost certainly scum. In fact if you are a bodyguard you are acutely aware of that fact and don't forget it for long enough to make that post.

You aren't the bodyguard. Either you're a VT more interested in showing off how clever you are than winning the game, or you're scum straining for a reason to keep both Pine and Eevee alive.

[MathBlade]

I would rather scum tell us who scum is if I am not the protective or to eat a bullet for said protective.

If you are a bodyguard than you never guard Eevee or Pine because you know they are both lying and almost certainly scum. In fact if you are a bodyguard you are acutely aware of that fact and don't forget it for long enough to make that post.

You aren't the bodyguard. Either you're a VT more interested in showing off how clever you are than winning the game, or you're scum straining for a reason to keep both Pine and Eevee alive.

Aw contraire as a bodyguard I would bodyguard Eevee as that is where scum are likely to shoot. Maybe Pine if Pine decides to try to convince me he is town. Of course that is assuming I am the bodyguard. If I am not then it’s all wine obviously. Harmless wine.

If I am scum which I am not then it is to my detriment to keep both alive for what I stated. We learn from who scum kill more than the lynch within them.

[MathBlade]

Fake claiming is a thing people do. So I wouldn’t rush to judgment. I wouldn’t put it past Army as town to fake a CC.

[Wisdom]

VT here.

[Hiraki]

You aren't the bodyguard. Either you're a VT more interested in showing off how clever you are than winning the game, or you're scum straining for a reason to keep both Pine and Eevee alive.

Ding ding ding

[EeveeLution Army]

Math is making my head spin my god. Haven't you head the saying if you can't seem to find valid partners then your push is more than likely more town or outcasted scum. TBH from towns pov i could be either. In both cases lynching pine would be more useful. Since 1) when he flips red we have more partner ideas and i can still maybe hit the partner
Or 2) hes town but lynching me today gives no info. Lynching pine forces scum to kill someone outside of the ccs in that case it would limit partner possibilities and in the end give town more to work with.
Ofc theres the option to lynch outside of the ccs to try to hit a mutual partner.

[TrinityNZ]

You do realize its 10× better lynching pine than me right?
If i really am jailkeeper(which i am) i can still block scum tonight after pines gone. Its just more logical

Why would you say ‘if I really am a jailkeeper’? Seems strange. Why not just say ‘Because I am a jailkeeper’...?

[TrinityNZ]

Speaking of Mafmen, he hasn't posted here since Monday, pre-claim business

@Mastina, prod please

If we're deciding between claims, Eevee's seems more plausible and I don't see Eevee making that counter as scum at that moment. Eevee's play does seem scummier but it just feels like a bad move lynching him.

If we're going to let the NK resolve it (which really isn't a bad idea), I have no clue anymore. Trinity keeps giving me bad vibes.

@Trinity

Maybe you didn't see it, but immediately following your Math vote I asked you to explain the basis of it.
--
Math, are you trying to get a hypoclaim going because you think it plausible both Pine and Eevee are lying?
--
Umlaut, most of your argumentation depends on associatives and there are a couple I'm not sure about. Maf's straight up "Pine is town without a doubt" seems pretty bold for a scumpartner, don't you think? If anything, it makes more sense to me if Maf is scum and knows Pine is town, or Maf is town and is just being opaque with his reads (as he seems to like to do, given that he called anyone who suspected you "daft" without explanation until asked for it).

The second problem is the Trinity+Eevee combo. Trinity was scumreading Pine, then after Eevee's counterclaim, scum!Trinity would have been able to sit on a Pine vote and stay out of the way and get the mislynch. Instead, scum!Trinity busses her partner who just counterclaimed? It seems equally plausible (or implausible) that scum!Trinity could have been trying to bus scum!Pine who appeared to be going down, then took the opportunity to change her mind as soon as Pine claimed (which she might have known he would do anyway). Following Eevee's counter, Trinity decides to believe Pine over Eevee, for pretty underwhelming reasons.

So I don't know. Sticking to Pine for now.

Sorry I thought I had explained it already. I will try today but I’m away from home and don’t have my notes on me.