Mini 2014: Succinct Mafia (Over)

[Dunnstral]

haven't slept in like 20 hours and realized it's 500 words instead of characters wow i might be slurred

so i don't think otter and cakez are partners because of how cakez has been talking to him. wagonomics around page 8 also make little sense for an independently scum otter, because TFL-Mom are two helpful flips here that simplifies the problem (no bussing). basically otter had options and went for TFL, who was supreme lynchbait while fitz-wisdom were the biggest wagons (and i don't think all three of them are buds)

hiraki might be town for voting wisdom, basically momrangal nailed it when she insinuated his reads were too easy. meanwhile, i hated mathblade's binary logic upon their replace in. wisdom is a tunnelfuck, and letting him be an unproductive tunnelfuck is a self resolving matter, because town!wisdom would eventually grow a clue, so hitting his blind spots of reads (cakez, mom, eevee) really only distracts from fitz.

of the two i'd more trust a townread on wisdom. my beef with wisdom is how he's a tunnelfuck and tries to have a moment of lucidity by prompting hiraki for a read on fitz. upon getting a townread response he proceeds to do absolutely nothing with that information and laments that fitz is simply scummier than everyone else (

narrator: he wasn't

). fitz could be town too, but his townreads in 242 suck. for instance, dunnstral refused to share with the class why in 140 wisdom is suddenly looking better (hi this could help the town at this point). cakez tr. math tr. gerry's wisdom tussle (no reason vs. "better vote") was inaccurate, beyond that gerry was farting around.

i hated mathblade slot since brie, mainly for her hiraki unvote, to shading gerryx3 (and encouraging pine's SR of him), and by the time she puts attention on eevee, her vote is STILL better placed on gerry, not that she ever voted before replacing out. brie was helpful w/ eevee RVS, but brie has several opportunities to make good votes, and chose not to.

so

1 of pine or eevee scum (foregone)
cakezscum
mathblade scum with eevee makes sense based pred?

pine flipping scum would make pg1-pg2 wagons interesting:

TFL voters: Pine, Wisdom, Otter
Pine voters: Cakez, Fitz

AA Voters: Wisdom, Hiraki
Anti-AA Voters: AA (Wisdom), Pine (shades Hiraki), Cakez (Hiraki), Wisdom (Hiraki), Momrangal (Wisdom), Gerry (novote), Brie (Hiraki)

fitz is super cool happy to sit on pine, fight with wisdom and squat on momrangal. pine and otter can't get enough of town booty for the foreseeable future. pine wagon collapses as cakez jumps off onto hiraki after pine makes AA's wagon less attractive.

don't have much to say about pine, i noticed that he promoted TFL parallel to fitz while cakez utterly refused to push fitz despite voting him, and talked otter down from TFL at least twice. pine never once seemed to give a shit.

i've got nothing on eevee besides lack of rvs

1) I don't really remember what I was thinking in 140, it was 45 days ago now...

2) Who's gerry?

3) I thought something was off with Cakez but then he replaced out and I haven't really looked at his successor

[TrinityNZ]

Yeah but why hide your number of protects. Not like you'll get a chance to use them.

Real doc doctor me imo since ill pushing pine for ya so you dont have to cc so early

Know what its worth me getting nightkilled. I'm Jailkeeper. Wisdom N1

Eevee, how do you reconcile/explain both these contradictory statements? First you ask the real doctor to protect you and then you say you’re jailkeeper.

I haven’t been reading you as scum till now but this seems like evidence enough to lynch you.

[Wisdom]

be less shallow pls
i see that more as a soft cc

[TrinityNZ]

I'm the doctor. Back off

Now stop with the counter wagons and get on eevee

No. Evee has been pushed by scum all game.

Join me on Trinity.

Everyone agrees that slot is scum just no one is doing a damn thing about it.

Math, you’re saying here that Evee has been pushed by scum all game. I haven’t pushed Evee, yet you’re saying I’m scum. Could you explain how those two things go together?

[TrinityNZ]

be less shallow pls
i see that more as a soft cc

Are you telling me to be less shallow? I have no idea what that means

[TrinityNZ]

@mastina, can we have a vote count please?

<<<

INFRACTION

: Third post in a row; user has been warned. >>>

[EeveeLution Army]

UNVOTE:

OK, Pine, who did you protect?

Eevee, why did you pick Wisdom? Why did you wait until you were being wagoned to claim jailkeeper today?

Wisdom was a bit of a catch all, i had a slightscum read on him but iirc a couple people had a tr on him so i thought he'd be decent.
I was hoping not to have to claim today so i didnt want scum to suspect me as the real PR. but i got scared pine wouldnt get lynched so i claimed.

[EeveeLution Army]

It is WAY better to lynch the scum today instead of a town because we'd lose two town to one scum.

[TrinityNZ]

UNVOTE:

You ruined my setup for a fakehammer so I may as well post this.

Totally unofficial and untrustworthy VC

EeveeLution Army - 3 (MafMen, Umlaut, Pine)
MathBlade - 2 (Wisdom, TrinityNZ)
Pine - 2 (EeveeLution Army, Hiraki)
TrinityNZ - 1 (MathBlade)

Not Voting - 3 (Lycanfire, LuckyOtter, Dunnstral)

want to see what Lycan does.

Yeah.

Let’s play a game

If I am the protective I protected Kokichi.

This doesn't make sense in this setup.

There is just no way both of these claims are fake. If they are, real protective counters right now and we lynch them all, getting two scum for at worst one doctor.

You've been hard-townreading Pine. You've been hard-townreading Eevee. One of them is scum. Which is it?

@Trinity

You've never given any hint of a read on the following slots: Dunnstral, EeveeLution Army, Wisdom. I'd like to know where you place them right now. Actually, a full read list would be helpful.

I don’t more have time to do anything in depth, but this is my list right now:

Pine - town - was scum until just now, but because of Eevee’s fake counterclaim, I’ve changed my mind for the time being
Wisdom - strongly town
Umlaut - town
Dunnstral - townlean
Hiraki - slight townlean
Lucky Otter - slight townlean
Lycanfire - not sure yet
MafMen - scumlean
MathBlade - scum
Eevee - scum - top contender, after the contradiction about doctor/jailkeeper

[Wisdom]

shallow means you are looking at the surface and not in depth
eevee is not the best at expressing himself
That doesnt make him scum
Jk makes way more sense than doc
Pine is way scummier than eevee
Look at the bigger picture without letting eevee's weak playstyle to affect you

[TrinityNZ]

shallow means you are looking at the surface and not in depth
eevee is not the best at expressing himself
That doesnt make him scum
Jk makes way more sense than doc
Pine is way scummier than eevee
Look at the bigger picture without letting eevee's weak playstyle to affect you

Why does JK make way more sense than doc?

<<<

INFRACTION

: Fifth post on a page in under 24 hours; user has been warned. >>>

[Wisdom]

because doc + cop allows for Follow the Cop
jk + cop doesnt

[LuckyOtter]

VOTE: Pine

Scum!Eevee makes less sense here because after Pine's claim, all of the heat went to Math. Scum!Eevee could very easily have jumped over there, or just go quiet as he does, or move somewhere else. This would be a suicide mission to take out the doc, which is a less useful role with the cop gone anyway. Seems like a super bad tradeoff when there are no caught scum yet.

Whereas JK!Eevee sees a fake claim, tries to pursue it without revealing his own role, sees it going nowhere, and decides to reveal his role in order to nail down one scum as a tradeoff. It's still a suicide mission but the benefit is much greater.

If someone can confirm that a jailkeeper makes more sense mechanically than a doc with a X-shot modifier, that would solidify the read for me.

[Umlaut]

Cop + X-Shot without a mafia roleblocker or similar still prevents scum from stopping investigations until the doctor is out of shots or they catch him. It gives scum no counterplay at all, they just have to wait while the cop collects results. And this is even worse if they don't know how many shots (and if Pine is telling the truth he was quite right not to claim number of shots).

Cop + JK doesn't have that problem because the JK can keep the cop safe indefinitely but in doing so they stop any further investigations.

I guess this means Pine's claim is worse than Eevee's and he's most likely scum. I can't quite get over the thought that the claim is maybe

so

much less fitting that the only reason for Pine to make it is if it's true. Also nearly-lynched Eevee trying to get him to disclose his number of shots looks ugly, town doesn't need that information to evaluate his claim.

UNVOTE:

My head says it's Pine but I need to sell myself on it some more.

[MathBlade]

UNVOTE:

You ruined my setup for a fakehammer so I may as well post this.

Totally unofficial and untrustworthy VC

EeveeLution Army - 3 (MafMen, Umlaut, Pine)
MathBlade - 2 (Wisdom, TrinityNZ)
Pine - 2 (EeveeLution Army, Hiraki)
TrinityNZ - 1 (MathBlade)

Not Voting - 3 (Lycanfire, LuckyOtter, Dunnstral)

want to see what Lycan does.

Yeah.

Let’s play a game

If I am the protective I protected Kokichi.

This doesn't make sense in this setup.

There is just no way both of these claims are fake. If they are, real protective counters right now and we lynch them all, getting two scum for at worst one doctor.

You've been hard-townreading Pine. You've been hard-townreading Eevee. One of them is scum. Which is it?

@Trinity

You've never given any hint of a read on the following slots: Dunnstral, EeveeLution Army, Wisdom. I'd like to know where you place them right now. Actually, a full read list would be helpful.

I don’t more have time to do anything in depth, but this is my list right now:

Pine - town - was scum until just now, but because of Eevee’s fake counterclaim, I’ve changed my mind for the time being
Wisdom - strongly town
Umlaut - town
Dunnstral - townlean
Hiraki - slight townlean
Lucky Otter - slight townlean
Lycanfire - not sure yet
MafMen - scumlean
MathBlade - scum
Eevee - scum - top contender, after the contradiction about doctor/jailkeeper

This is scum with Pine will be at work. Intent to hammer I think?

@mastina VC please

[Umlaut]

[stuff]

This is scum with Pine will be at work. Intent to hammer I think?

If anything I find Trinity more likely scum with Eevee, which is why I wanted her read of him. Even seeing her scumread him now I can't rule out distancing, given scum!Trinity would know Pine is about to flip green.

With Eevee:

• SirCakez poked at Eevee but it looked more like criticism than interrogation. He then scumread and voted him but never really pushed it and eventually moved on. Eventually expressed willingness to return but still didn't push.
  
• MagnaofIllusion had Eevee as solidly town.
  
• Trinity never said anything about him until the claim, and questioned both MafMen and me for voting or considering voting him.

With Pine:

• SirCakez criticized Pine in 263, 285, 316, and backed up Eevee's scumread of him.
  
• Magna consistently scumread Pine and actually townread Eevee mostly for "twinging to Pine scum".
  
• Trinity suggested "Pine and MafMen could be partners" (but why?) and asked permission to vote him which just doesn't make sense for busing.

After today's flip I would raise my credence in scum!Trinity if Eevee is scum, and lower it if Pine is scum.

---

"If Eevee is Scum, Who Are His Buddies?"

Tl;dr:

1-2 in {TrinityNZ, MathBlade, Wisdom}; I'd lynch Wisdom first. Secondary choices: {MafMen, Lycanfire}.

• TrinityNZ:
  Plausible, as explained above.
  
  
• Hiraki:
  Unlikely. Hiraki and Eevee talk early d1 in a way I don't expect to see between scum with daytalk, and when Hiraki votes Eevee it's with the clarification that it's
  not
  about scumreading him. The case only comes later. This is no way to bus. There also seems to be genuine confusion between them in posts like 527, 536.
  
  
• Dunnstral:
  Unlikely. He put some good pressure there yesterday and today. I've pressured scumbuddies like that before. But he also defended Otter from Pine's unwarranted suspicion based on a misunderstanding, which might have otherwise cleared Eevee in Pine's mind. This isn't completely impossible to do just for later townpoints, but it seems like a bad scum move and a good town one.
  
  
• MafMen:
  Possible but not a top choice. Kokichi gave the lynchbait defense against scumreads on Eevee. MafMen said right off Eevee could be scum and currently has him as "mafia (w/o poe)." He's not really pushing it but he hasn't really pushed anything. Overall I wish there were more interactions here.
  
  
• MathBlade:
  Plausible. Had him as a null read early, was at "never lynching" by 720 and "obvtown" by 809 right. Scumreads those who scumread Eevee but never rebuts them.
  
  
• LycanFire:
  Could equally be scum with pretty much anyone as of now.
  
  
• Wisdom:
  Highly plausible. Consistently defends Eevee but never gives a better reason than "lynchbait". Rebuts scumreads but never offers a reason he's town.
  
  
• LuckyOtter:
  Not particularly likely. Waffles on Eevee slot but in a natural way, and shades Wisdom's defense of Eevee whereas I don't think scum want to poke too hard at undeserved townreads on their buddies. He doesn't actually poke too hard but he does poke.

---

Will do another of these for Pine soon.

[Umlaut]

"If Pine is Scum, Who Are His Buddies?"

Tl;dr:

2 in {Hiraki, Mafmen, Lycanfire}. I'd lynch Mafmen first but really I'd just lynch them all until we win.

• TrinityNZ:
  Unlikely, see 1040.
  
  
• Hiraki:
  Plausible. Dissuades d1 Pine votes based on "the wagon isn't happening" rather than read; states an unsubstantiated scumread d1 that he doesn't pursue; on d2 seems to push a scumread but then disbelieves the wagon will flip scum and continues to doubt even as he joins it (which he had already committed himself to doing earlier). Feels inconsistent on the slot.
  
  
• Dunnstral:
  Unlikely based on 1030 alone: it seems to slip that Dunn didn't pay close attention to Pine's posts and really didn't know what he would answer, both of which are unlikely between scumbuddies who would have used daytalk to plan this move in advance. It's a fairly subtle slip that I don't believe scum would think to fake. I actually had Dunn at "plausible" before noticing this.
  
  
• MafMen:
  Plausible. Kokichi doesn't really look at Pine except in 301 (which is just weird) and their d1 interactions seem aimless. MafMen hard-townreads Pine for really lame reasons.
  
  
• MathBlade:
  Maybe, but probably not. Unexplained hard townread on Pine, possibly
  too
  hard to be a scumbuddy read. Now voting Pine over Eevee when he could have easily gone either way. I don't think the townpoints for being "right" are worth giving up a mislynch.
  
  
• LycanFire:
  Again, could be scum with anyone.
  
  
• Wisdom:
  Unlikely. His read progression on Pine looks natural, and he was first to call him out on something that might have just slid by otherwise. Beyond "townpoints" he has no sufficient scum motive to dismiss his buddy's claim after believing the cop's; even if he's expecting Pine to go down after a CC he could just wait to see if that happened.
  
  
• LuckyOtter:
  Highly unlikely. If someone has an unsupported scumread on your buddy, you leave it alone. You don't invite that person to case him when for all you know he has a great case. Also this me-too post is not a scum-scum interaction.

---

From 1040 and this post I can infer that, regardless of today's flip, Dunnstral and LuckyOtter are likely town.

Oops.

[Wisdom]

I can buy hiraki/mafmen

[Umlaut]

ill join any of these wagons bar eevee and trinity

This is ballsy as fuck if Wisdom/Eevee/Trinity is the team.

[Pine]

Yeah, hi. I'm sorry, but the cogdis coming from Eevee is ridiculous, and should make this easymode. I get that I'm biased due to knowing the truth, but seriously, guys.

I'm fine with tabling the issue, as now that I'm outed, they have to kill me. My flip should just simply serve as a guilty on Eevee.

[mastina]

@mastina, can we have a vote count please?

<<< While I am in fact generating this, this still counts as a post.
As such, TrinityNZ is receiving a warning for the infraction of triple-posting. >>>

[mastina]

shallow means you are looking at the surface and not in depth
eevee is not the best at expressing himself
That doesnt make him scum
Jk makes way more sense than doc
Pine is way scummier than eevee
Look at the bigger picture without letting eevee's weak playstyle to affect you

Why does JK make way more sense than doc?

<<< TrinityNZ is receiving a warning for the infraction of making more than 4 posts on a page in less than 24 hours. >>>

[mastina]

Votecount

EeveeLution Army - 3 (MafMen, Pine, Hiraki)

Pine - 3 (EeveeLution Army, Wisdom, LuckyOtter)
MathBlade - 1 (TrinityNZ)
TrinityNZ - 1 (MathBlade)

Not Voting - 3 (Lycanfire, Dunnstral, Umlaut)

6 to lynch.

[Hiraki]

I guess this means Pine's claim is worse than Eevee's and he's most likely scum. I can't quite get over the thought that the claim is maybe so much less fitting that the only reason for Pine to make it is if it's true. Also nearly-lynched Eevee trying to get him to disclose his number of shots looks ugly, town doesn't need that information to evaluate his claim.

Ding ding ding

If he's lying, why does he care? Eevee hasn't shown a big ego before.

Hiraki: Plausible. Dissuades d1 Pine votes based on "the wagon isn't happening" rather than read; states an unsubstantiated scumread d1 that he doesn't pursue; on d2 seems to push a scumread but then disbelieves the wagon will flip scum and continues to doubt even as he joins it (which he had already committed himself to doing earlier). Feels inconsistent on the slot.

Allow me to refute - I honestly don't know which way Pine will flip at the end of the day but I know this much:

1) He is just not into this game and had to resort to his claim to even be alive right now.
2) I don't think he's much use alive anyway right now and if I didn't have such a good mindset and clear vision of Eeveescum, I'd stay on and regret it later when he flips town/feel only a little good when he flips scum.
3) I am very inconsistent on the slot. I don't think I've been very "feel-y" about that, if you get my drift.

[EeveeLution Army]

Votecount

EeveeLution Army - 3 (MafMen, Pine, Hiraki)

Pine - 3 (EeveeLution Army, Wisdom, LuckyOtter)
MathBlade - 1 (TrinityNZ)
TrinityNZ - 1 (MathBlade)

Not Voting - 3 (Lycanfire, Dunnstral, Umlaut)

6 to lynch.

When all three scum are on you and have secured plur lol