Mini 2014: Succinct Mafia (Over)

[MathBlade]

I should be okay because of 24 hour reset rule

@Umlaut because Trinity read enough to see a link yet she didn’t go over to the left to see who did?

If she is reading the posts to obtain reads then surely she would be able to see who wrote it. It’s not like the game is going fast. Trinity hasn’t been reading or displaying any sort of depth at all.

Whoops, I can see I did get it wrong about who created the document. The link I clicked was in a post of MathBlade’s, and I didn’t notice that it was actually in a quote of Umlaut’s.

I have been reading, but it’s harder than I thought it would be, coming into the game, especially where there are a lot of pages to read, and there have been a fair few substitutions.

Nothing has swayed me from my initial read on MathBlade. Pine and MafMen could be partners. Umlaut, Hiraki, Dunstaal read town to me.

So you’re actually not reading then? If it was a hard read then I would have accepted being part of the way through. However not once have you actually specified anything from your reading. This feels like someone in the scum PT said “hey vote Math, he’s onto us”

Since Umlaut won’t happen today I will vote VOTE: TrinityNZ

Shocking the replacements have only strengthened my reads.

[LuckyOtter]

V/LA through Monday

. If I can I'll try to post in the evenings.

Wisdom's defense of Eevee bothered me before and now it's the same thing with AA. It's making me lose faith in Wisdom, honestly. AA had a very big change in reads D2 that I asked her about and she never fully explained. Then again, she's disappeared after that.

Mastina

, did AA ever pick up her prod? Can we get a replacement?

I feel like Trinity is not going to be an easy push for a lynch, so I'm not sure that it totally makes sense for scum!math to start pushing there, other than cause general confusion and park a vote on a slot that's not a hot topic.

Eevee actually has a point--Pine said he was going to 1v1 Dunn today and hasn't touched him yet. I actually keep forgetting Pine is in this game.

I also keep forgetting about Koki/Mafmen. Mafmen's townread on Pine is not at all convincing, but I'm tending to agree with him on Umlaut. I didn't like his entrance but I'm liking his recent contributions.

I don't really like Math's dismissal of Umlaut. It's very much like the way he dismissed me early on without bothering to read anything I wrote. If it can be shown Umlaut is trying to push a specific agenda and that agenda is scummy, that would be one thing, but just saying "UGH wallposter" is not at all convincing. Umlaut will probably have to be sorted tomorrow once we see where his case is going and once we get a flip.

Going to UNVOTE: until I see where he's going. I'm still leaning Math but I can be convinced to vote elsewhere.

[Umlaut]

Request prod of Pine.

(I don't really want him replaced but I do want him to remember this game is here.)

[Umlaut]

UNVOTE: ArcAngel9

---

If that prod doesn't convince Pine to post, maybe this will.

Here's the per-player time of next post on-site vs. time of next post in this game after Fuzzy's claim. Claim was at at 05:49 (UTC).

• Wisdom:
  Active at 06:21, posts here at 06:22, difference of 1m. Seems to accept claim.
  
• MathBlade:
  Active upon posting here at 06:38. Rejects claim.
  
• Dunnstral:
  Active upon posting here at 7:05. Softly skeptical of claim.
  
• Kokichi Oma
  Active upon posting here at 15:15. Rejects claim.
  
• LuckyOtter:
  Active at 06:42, posts here at 15:23, difference of 9h2m. Rejects claim.
  
• Pine:
  Active at 14:00, posts here at 16:18, difference of 2h18m. Rejects claim.
  
• EeveeLution Army
  : Active and posts here at 16:48. Neutral on claim but opposes lynch.
  
• Momrangal:
  Active upon posting here at 19:18. Opposes lynch.
  
• Hiraki:
  Active upon posting here at 19:20. Accepts claim, opposes lynch.
  
• ArcAngel9:
  Active at 08:53, posts here at 22:25, difference of 13h32m. No response to the claim itself.

7/10 players who posted at all after Fuzzy's claim did so either as their very next post on the site or within minutes thereof. The exceptions are Pine, LuckyOtter, and ArcAngel9. Note that LuckyOtter's delay interval is 2:42am - 11:23am EDT, so he was probably sleeping for a good chunk of that time, and the post here was his first post since whenever he went to sleep. ArcAngel9's, by contrast, is 2:23pm - 3:55am IST,

but

she still made no posts at all on-site between the one post and the other, and she didn't come back with a delayed response so much as no response at all, which is ugly in its own way but not quite the same thing.

Pine's relatively shorter delay is distinctive, in that he was active on-site the whole time. He made four posts in four separate threads, at fairly evenly spaced intervals, suggesting he was checking the site regularly.

I've been mostly townreading Pine on tone, but his behavior around the wagon sticks out to me as markedly untowny. He's literally the last person to join the I Don't Buy That Claim Club, and so he takes that position with a guarantee that at least four others will have taken it with him. He doesn't express anything in his post that hasn't already been said by both MathBlade and LuckyOtter. And unlike those two he explicitly says that the real cop shouldn't cc, cementing a game state where the lack of cc won't be taken as supporting the claim.

I'm pretty sure this makes Pine scum.

But I'm not going to vote Pine now.

"Well, then... just who

are

you going to vote?"

Find out this and more in the thrilling next episode of

Umlaut Makes His Case,

coming soon to a thread near you!!

[TrinityNZ]

After that last post in particular, Umlaut is looking strongly town to me. I can’t imagine mafia doing that much research.

[LuckyOtter]

Agreed. There has been heat on his slot, but it has dissipated and hasn't really merited this kind of effort to turn the game around.

[Wisdom]

now if only we could lynch math

[Umlaut]

I'll take a look at your notes later, btw. I like this post.

Good, cause you're really gonna hate this next one.

---

VOTE: LuckyOtter

This is my best vote all day.

Allow me a moment to reminisce about my scumplay in Open 645, specifically my d1 interactions with iraonavp who was every bit as lynchbaity as Fuzzy. See in particular my case that ira had knowledge-slipped and contradicted himself. I knew he really hadn't, but after he explained I still found it easy to fabricate a convincing discredit of his (genuine, true) explanation. Even after ira flipped town no one doubted the lynchwagon was righteous. I like to think I contributed to that. But enough about my glory days...

Re. my own thoughts on Fuzzy, I say Otter's first explanation in 882 is the obviously true one, as evidenced by everything Fuzzy ever said. He was already calling himself natural lynchbait before (293) and continued to call himself natural lynchbait after (394, 401):

Lynchbait is my basic operating system. I am not trying to be lynchbait .

This is about as unambiguous as it gets. So the entire basis for a contradiction hinges on whether this is a reasonable interpretation of "playing as lynchbait." If so, Fuzzy's explanation is sound; if not, it's scum backpedaling.

I.e., for town!Otter to reject Fuzzy's explanation, he must himself be unable to see any meaning but "deliberately baiting votes and/or scumreads" for that phrase.

What Otter's answer here shows is that he

can

see other ways to read that phrase. He can even find them independently. He is fully capable of reading Fuzzy's imperfect words with some sense of charity, when he thinks it will benefit him to do so.

From this I deduce that Otter's d1 reasoning was motivated. He wanted an unassailable reason to hard-scumread Fuzzy, and found one by insisting on a self-contradictory interpretation of his words.

So much for early d1; let's go to the end of the day. Look again at the activity chart in 903, and Otter's position thereon. Granting that this was Otter's first post of the day on MS, the timing and placement are still awkward. You shouldn't have to sleep on it to come up with something like

It's a gambit. If lynchbait is his MO as town, he should be used to getting some heat and wouldn't feel defeated, especially if playing as cop.

Unless... unless you're not sure whether to post it.

Unless you want to continue scumreading Fuzzy just if it's safe to do so.

Unless you're waiting for a few other people to confirm that it's okay for townies to still want Fuzzy dead.

Especially if one of them is not yet on the wagon and just might insta-hammer if you suggest it.

In that case everything just... makes... sense.

[Umlaut]

One more statement on the cop claim reactions. Apparently not a single person moved off the wagon, so sanity is too much to ask, but we can certainly distinguish between players by what they actually wanted out of the day.

Of the players who rejected Fuzzy's claim:

• MathBlade actively engaged people, tried to convince them, and made every effort to talk things through.
  
• Dunnstral seemed unsure, and made some effort to talk things through.
  
• Kokichi Oma wanted to hold out for a Fitz replacement, so that we were all here to talk things through.
  
• Pine was happy to just let things proceed, and didn't really seem too worried one way or the other about talking things through.
  
• LuckyOtter
  called for an immediate hammer
  before anyone else could talk anything through.

This is the difference between playing to catch scum and playing to mislynch.


Otter and Pine are both scum. On an ISO skim I have no problem seeing them as scum together. Third scum is probably (though not definitely) off the d1 wagon, implying one of {ArcAngel, Eevee, Hiraki} (or I guess me), and of those I think ArcAngel is the best bet.

---

Dear Otter-the-person,

Sorry about dropping this anvil on you just as you go V/LA. I honestly thought you wouldn't be until tomorrow at the earliest.

[Wisdom]

VOTE: lucky

[MathBlade]

After that last post in particular, Umlaut is looking strongly town to me. I can’t imagine mafia doing that much research.

Yeah Trinity is scum. She refuses to analyze any post in depth or answer my direct probe of anything useful she has read.

Sad thing was I was “this close” to nullreading Umlaut til that post.

Effort is not alignment indicative. I have been townread for that shit in Gistou and Shadowrun and Mod is Mafia.

I am making a direct effort to not flood with text and walls and instead let my yeses be yeses and my nos be nos.

This case from Umlaut looks like an excuse to not talk about Trinity / Magna. It’s terrible.

[MathBlade]

One more statement on the cop claim reactions. Apparently not a single person moved off the wagon, so sanity is too much to ask, but we can certainly distinguish between players by what they actually wanted out of the day.

Of the players who rejected Fuzzy's claim:

• MathBlade actively engaged people, tried to convince them, and made every effort to talk things through.
  
• Dunnstral seemed unsure, and made some effort to talk things through.
  
• Kokichi Oma wanted to hold out for a Fitz replacement, so that we were all here to talk things through.
  
• Pine was happy to just let things proceed, and didn't really seem too worried one way or the other about talking things through.
  
• LuckyOtter
  called for an immediate hammer
  before anyone else could talk anything through.

This is the difference between playing to catch scum and playing to mislynch.


Otter and Pine are both scum. On an ISO skim I have no problem seeing them as scum together. Third scum is probably (though not definitely) off the d1 wagon, implying one of {ArcAngel, Eevee, Hiraki} (or I guess me), and of those I think ArcAngel is the best bet.

---

Dear Otter-the-person,

Sorry about dropping this anvil on you just as you go V/LA. I honestly thought you wouldn't be until tomorrow at the earliest.

Furthermore this is largest indicative of some kind of communication between Otter and Umlaut.

How would you suspect/know Otter would be going on VLA and not be til tomorrow?

Actually Trinity/Otter/Umlaut with Wisdom scum beard ain’t bad

[Hiraki]

0% on Lucky. I see exactly what you see in him. It's not scum though. I'd be willing to do a Pine lynch as a nice jesture though I really don't think that has a significant chance of flipping scum. Just a nice chance.

I also think 903 is a little misleading. More than half of the people on there are rejecting the claim yet he's been lynched. That's not very truthful on a face value without looking into it.

[Hiraki]

One more statement on the cop claim reactions. Apparently not a single person moved off the wagon, so sanity is too much to ask, but we can certainly distinguish between players by what they actually wanted out of the day.

Of the players who rejected Fuzzy's claim:

• MathBlade actively engaged people, tried to convince them, and made every effort to talk things through.
  
• Dunnstral seemed unsure, and made some effort to talk things through.
  
• Kokichi Oma wanted to hold out for a Fitz replacement, so that we were all here to talk things through.
  
• Pine was happy to just let things proceed, and didn't really seem too worried one way or the other about talking things through.
  
• LuckyOtter
  called for an immediate hammer
  before anyone else could talk anything through.

This is the difference between playing to catch scum and playing to mislynch.


Otter and Pine are both scum. On an ISO skim I have no problem seeing them as scum together. Third scum is probably (though not definitely) off the d1 wagon, implying one of {ArcAngel, Eevee, Hiraki} (or I guess me), and of those I think ArcAngel is the best bet.

---

Dear Otter-the-person,

Sorry about dropping this anvil on you just as you go V/LA. I honestly thought you wouldn't be until tomorrow at the earliest.

Furthermore this is largest indicative of some kind of communication between Otter and Umlaut.

How would you suspect/know Otter would be going on VLA and not be til tomorrow?

Actually Trinity/Otter/Umlaut with Wisdom scum beard ain’t bad

Take off the goddamn tinfoil hat this game please. It's still annoying and this is about the easiest thing to debunk if you took two seconds to actually investigate your own claim.

My summer Fridays are completely unpredictable, and I'm about to go V/LA for a research trip this weekend. I'll try to get some rereading done before I go and post something substantive, but I honestly don't think my vote is going to move. I feel like I need math to flip before I can get a better read of others.

[EeveeLution Army]

I'm pretty sure i have plur at L-3?

Mod-requesting an official votecount

[mastina]

Mastina

, did AA ever pick up her prod? Can we get a replacement?

<<< She did not; am seeking now. >>>

Request prod of Pine.

<<< I was under the impression Pine was V/LA, but I'll remind him of the game and if he's not around in 24 hours give a prod. >>>

Mod-requesting an official votecount

<<< I do apologize for this, but due to needing to go to work early tomorrow, I don't have the time tonight. I'll have one generated within 24 hours of your request, as per my rules, but I can't generate one at this moment. >>>

[TrinityNZ]

After that last post in particular, Umlaut is looking strongly town to me. I can’t imagine mafia doing that much research.

Yeah Trinity is scum. She refuses to analyze any post in depth or answer my direct probe of anything useful she has read.

Sad thing was I was “this close” to nullreading Umlaut til that post.

Effort is not alignment indicative. I have been townread for that shit in Gistou and Shadowrun and Mod is Mafia.

I am making a direct effort to not flood with text and walls and instead let my yeses be yeses and my nos be nos.

This case from Umlaut looks like an excuse to not talk about Trinity / Magna. It’s terrible.

You’re saying that ‘effort is not alignment indicative’. Then you’re saying that I’m scum because I ‘refuse to analyse any post in depth’. Make up your mind.

[MafMen]

jesus i dont fit in with you all

these walls make me stand out

[MathBlade]

After that last post in particular, Umlaut is looking strongly town to me. I can’t imagine mafia doing that much research.

Yeah Trinity is scum. She refuses to analyze any post in depth or answer my direct probe of anything useful she has read.

Sad thing was I was “this close” to nullreading Umlaut til that post.

Effort is not alignment indicative. I have been townread for that shit in Gistou and Shadowrun and Mod is Mafia.

I am making a direct effort to not flood with text and walls and instead let my yeses be yeses and my nos be nos.

This case from Umlaut looks like an excuse to not talk about Trinity / Magna. It’s terrible.

You’re saying that ‘effort is not alignment indicative’. Then you’re saying that I’m scum because I ‘refuse to analyse any post in depth’. Make up your mind.

1) It isn’t after a certain point. Down by definition want to get reads and solve the game. To do that reading must take place of which you are not. So there is a minimum bar for town. However there is no “they put in this much effort must be town point”. Again you are reducing what I say to points I am not saying and then attacking that inaccurate representation.

2) You’re still not talking any sort of reads with any sort of reasons. You’re obviously scum at this point and I struggle to see how anyone could townread you. @Umlaut If you don’t townread Trinity vote with me there. If you do explain why. For all the posting you’ve done on other people with your walls you’ve said little about her.

@Hiraki I did look before then. If my tinfoil as it were is wrong show me where it is since it took you two seconds.

@MafMen Needs to die too same reasons as Trinity. MafMen seems content on spamming.

[Pine]

Mehhhhhh I'm here-ish. Camp is over in a few hours, I'll spend the evening catching up.

[Hiraki]

@Hiraki I did look before then. If my tinfoil as it were is wrong show me where it is since it took you two seconds.

Friday is not considered part of the weekend.

[Umlaut]

Yeah Trinity is scum. She refuses to analyze any post in depth or answer my direct probe of anything useful she has read.

Sad thing was I was “this close” to nullreading Umlaut til that post.

Effort is not alignment indicative. I have been townread for that shit in Gistou and Shadowrun and Mod is Mafia.

I am making a direct effort to not flood with text and walls and instead let my yeses be yeses and my nos be nos.

This case from Umlaut looks like an excuse to not talk about Trinity / Magna. It’s terrible.

Furthermore this is largest indicative of some kind of communication between Otter and Umlaut.

How would you suspect/know Otter would be going on VLA and not be til tomorrow?

Actually Trinity/Otter/Umlaut with Wisdom scum beard ain’t bad

Yes, MathBlade.

I dug through yesterday's voting record and questioned Otter based on it. Then I questioned others about their positions on the Fuzzy wagon. Then I went digging through the sitewide post histories of every player in the game. Then I asked more questions pertinent to these post histories. Then I analyzed all this data and extracted this extensive case against Otter based on evidence that would have gone completely under the radar otherwise.

Because I'm

that

eager to bus my teammate, who is under literally zero suspicion from the town, that I'll build my own bus from scratch if I have to and post billboards inviting the whole town to jump on.

And I did it all because...

I'm afraid to talk about your Trinity read.

Get over yourself.


But since you won't, note that according to you I'm lockscum and I've slipped that Otter is my buddy. So help me lynch him, just like you scumread Wisdom for not doing with me. There's a chance you might do something useful today after all, even if it's by accident.

[Wisdom]

please stop thinking math is dumb town
Shes doing it on purpose
Check her scum meta if you dont know

[Wisdom]

he* his* whatever

[MathBlade]

V/LA from this game until Sunday.