Mini 2014: Succinct Mafia (Over)

[mastina]

<<< Lycanfire replaces ArcAngel9. >>>

[Lycanfire]

soup nerds

UNVOTE:

[Umlaut]

Damn it. Now I know how everyone felt yesterday when Fuzzy claimed.

The right thing is the right thing, though. Don't lynch Pine without a counterclaim. I don't know if I believe him or not, but the truth will come out eventually so it's a waste of daylight to lynch him now.

VOTE: LuckyOtter

As much as I'd like to greet LycanFire by giving new meaning to the phrase "welcome wagon," he's not my top scumread.

Also, now that we're fully staffed:

Vote for deadline

[mastina]

Because you're a knob

<<< Pine is receiving a warning for the infraction of making more than 4 posts on a page in less than 24 hours. >>>

[Pine]

...Mastina's a knob too

(j/k ilu friendo u n me 5eva)

[MathBlade]

yeah because all claims and all players are the same and context doesnt matter

And you were absolute Fuzzy was not to be lynched despite overwhelming scumminess from the slot.

Now you’re saying that the context is either A) Irrevelant which means you should be unvoting

Or B) You are sarcastic which means your arguments for me being scum are out the window.

A or B Pick

Oh and we should lynch Trinity.

[Wisdom]

overwhelming scumminess my foot. fuzzy was obvious lynchbait and i said so one million times.
pine on the other hand is actually scummy and his claim looks like an attempt to survive

And i was obviously sarcastic because your arguments are ridiculously bad

[Umlaut]

I think I may be the only one in this game who has any sort of principled opinion on how to handle PR claims.

If Pine is scum, now that he's claimed he's caught. This is a semi-open; there is exactly one protective role in the game, they know Pine is lying, and eventually so will we. Personally, I would counterclaim immediately in their position and I think they should do the same; the odds that a protective ever successfully protects anyone are low enough that trading them off for a confirmed scum is 100% worth it. But even if they don't, as long as they flip or cc before lylo we will get Pine eventually.

(Thought experiment: Suppose Pine is telling the truth, do we expect scum to counterclaim him today? Probably not, because we know it wouldn't be in their interest and so do they. But if he's lying, then having the real protective counterclaim today puts us in an identical situation to the above, only better since

we

and not the scum have chosen which one of them made the fakeclaim. So shouldn't that be just as much against scum's interest, and therefore in ours?)

And if Pine is town... well, we don't want to lynch him then either.

So we do something else for now and let Pine's slot take care of itself. And I continue suggesting that anyone with a CC should put it out there, while not forcing the issue by calling for a massclaim, at least not today.

My reads:

Town on Hiraki, Trinity. (More paranoid of the Hiraki read because I feel like he always looks pretty town.)
Reluctantly town on MathBlade as well.
Gun-to-my-head town on Wisdom.
Unsure on Eevee, MafMen, Dunnstral.
Didn't like ArcAngel but want to see what Lycan does.
Scum on Otter.

[Umlaut]

Trying to decide how to read Wisdom's inconsistency. My first thought was that it's a towntell. Town can be hypocritical and get carried away by their feelings of certainty about a slot and start special-pleading when best play doesn't match their intuitions. Making a general statement against lynching PR claims on day 1, and then saying on day 2 when your own scumread claims a PR that this is just Different For Some Reason, is such a natural tunneling-town reaction it hurts. Scum don't actually believe their own 'reads' and so they can't actually be confbiased about them. Sure they can fake it, in principle they can fake anything but a flip, that doesn't make it not-towny.

The problem with this is that Wisdom hasn't really shown any tunneling tendencies toward Pine in the first place, so I don't see why he'd have strong enough feelings to get the better of him here.

pine is a wildcard because i cant read him

Ill reluctantly compromise on pine if that ends up being the top wagon

[Dunnstral]

well, to more accurately describe it, i forgot about the posting part because i was reading posts

What have you determined from all that reading?

that im completely outclassed in scumreading capability


i might as well poe if i only have one sr

town:
pine, wisdom, lucky, umlaut, hiraki, trinity, arc?,

mafia (w/o poe):
eevee

poe:
dunns, math

I've been on eevee all game

[MafMen]

well, to more accurately describe it, i forgot about the posting part because i was reading posts

What have you determined from all that reading?

that im completely outclassed in scumreading capability


i might as well poe if i only have one sr

town:
pine, wisdom, lucky, umlaut, hiraki, trinity, arc?,

mafia (w/o poe):
eevee

poe:
dunns, math

I've been on eevee all game

its poe dont expect it to be solid

[Dunnstral]

I'm the doctor. Back off

Now stop with the counter wagons and get on eevee

[MathBlade]

I'm the doctor. Back off

Now stop with the counter wagons and get on eevee

No. Evee has been pushed by scum all game.

Join me on Trinity.

Everyone agrees that slot is scum just no one is doing a damn thing about it.

[Umlaut]

After that last post in particular, Umlaut is looking strongly town to me. I can’t imagine mafia doing that much research.

I can't see scum!Trinity being the first to drop a read like this just minutes after I posted my case.

Scum!Trinity is completely new to Mafia.
Scum!Trinity has exactly zero finished games as town.
Scum!Trinity has no idea whether my case looks towny or not.
Scum!Trinity doesn't know whether I'm about to be the new town leader or the new lynchwagon.
Scum!Trinity has thus far gotten away with unexplained reads and questions that don't really advance the game.
Scum!Trinity isn't going to choose this moment to commit to a read ahead of everyone else.

(Unless scum!Trinity is being coached in a private thread. Aggh daytalk.)

@Trinity

As I said before, you have to step up the contributions. Assuming Pine is town, who if anyone is scum on his wagon? Choices are you, me, Eevee, Hiraki, Wisdom, arguably Dunnstral.

@Eevee

You too. Even if you don't think Pine is town you can answer the hypothetical.

Actually this just a good question to answer in general.

[Dunnstral]

Scum!Trinity has no idea whether my case looks towny or not.

I don't understand where you're going with this one, how does him being town let him know if your case looks towny vs him being scum

[MathBlade]

Scum!Trinity has no idea whether my case looks towny or not.

I don't understand where you're going with this one, how does him being town let him know if your case looks towny vs him being scum

Besides being patently false, in that scum know obvTown when they see it and are not served by pushing for their lynch and thus can evaluate cases for tow ones they just already know who is town.

Town can act scummy and scum can act towny.

Secondly and most importantly why the fuck are you caring how your case “looks”? If you’re town you’d just fucking bring it.

[Wisdom]

VOTE: math

[TrinityNZ]

I'm the doctor. Back off

Now stop with the counter wagons and get on eevee

No. Evee has been pushed by scum all game.

Join me on Trinity.

Everyone agrees that slot is scum just no one is doing a damn thing about it.

really, does everyone agree? Who agrees Math?

[TrinityNZ]

After that last post in particular, Umlaut is looking strongly town to me. I can’t imagine mafia doing that much research.

I can't see scum!Trinity being the first to drop a read like this just minutes after I posted my case.

Scum!Trinity is completely new to Mafia.
Scum!Trinity has exactly zero finished games as town.
Scum!Trinity has no idea whether my case looks towny or not.
Scum!Trinity doesn't know whether I'm about to be the new town leader or the new lynchwagon.
Scum!Trinity has thus far gotten away with unexplained reads and questions that don't really advance the game.
Scum!Trinity isn't going to choose this moment to commit to a read ahead of everyone else.

(Unless scum!Trinity is being coached in a private thread. Aggh daytalk.)

@Trinity

As I said before, you have to step up the contributions. Assuming Pine is town, who if anyone is scum on his wagon? Choices are you, me, Eevee, Hiraki, Wisdom, arguably Dunnstral.

@Eevee

You too. Even if you don't think Pine is town you can answer the hypothetical.

Actually this just a good question to answer in general.

At this point, I don’t know, other than Math. I don’t want to vote the doctor though, if the claim is real. I do have doubts, but we’ll see soon enough.

Math is pushing a vote on me, because I’ve been reading him as scum the whole game pretty much. His evidence on me is very weak. I think we need to vote for him now.

UNVOTE: pine

VOTE: MathBlade

[LuckyOtter]

Back. Catching up today.

[LuckyOtter]

He was already calling himself natural lynchbait before (293) and continued to call himself natural lynchbait after (394, 401):

This doesn't mean anything and you eventually get to:

So the entire basis for a contradiction hinges on whether this is a reasonable interpretation of "playing as lynchbait." If so, Fuzzy's explanation is sound; if not, it's scum backpedaling.

Alrighty, that's a stretch.

We're at the point where saying "I play like lynchbait" means "I play like lynchbait (please excuse my scummy play)" but you never really hit where the scummy play part is.

The point of that section is that

Otter's

hard scumread of Fuzzy was based on an insistence that Fuzzy's statement could only mean "I'm deliberately acting scummy." Which means Otter should not be able to readily come up with an innocent alternate interpretation that completely eluded him as possible on d1 even as Fuzzy was offering it to him.

@Umlaut...

Dude, first of all, you

asked

me to try to reconcile Fuzzy's play yesterday. So when I do, that makes me scum? As town, I can't possibly be able to try to understand where Fuzzy was coming from, such that my face melts from my skull when I try to reason it out? I guess I should have been obtuse about it and not bother trying to figure out where I went wrong? This feels pretty baity.

Second, I made it quite clear that in order to reconcile Fuzzy's play, I have to make a super generous read of Fuzzy's statements, such that I can only have read them as coming from town with the benefit of hindsight knowing that he was in fact town.

The bit where you say I'm calling for an immediate hammer, I can see how you would interpret it that way. Hiraki is correct that I posted that in the context of trying to see if Koki was actually going to vote Fuzzy or not.
---
If Pine's claim is true, Umlaut's scumreads are super off. I don't really see the scum motivation in targeting me in particular, but it's concerning. Keeping Umlaut in null pile.
--
I had a strong TR of SirCakez D1 but a couple of things are bothering me with Trinity. The Pine vote comes out of nowhere, and the stance on Math is consistent but never actually explained. Trinity moves her vote back onto Math, saying "his evidence on me is very weak," all the while providing no evidence whatsoever against Math. This is looking a hell of a lot like Trinity just trying to move with popular opinion. Questions for Trinity: what made you think Pine was scummy? What's the basis of your Math scumread?
--
I need a response from Trinity, a post-claim update from Eevee, and a catch-up from Lycan before I'm ready to vote.

[EeveeLution Army]

I Dont think doctor makes sense in this(like just plain doctor) because follow the cop feels busted in this...cause like as far as i can tell mafia dont really have a pr to stop it? I feel like the protection role would be like an odd/even doc, a bodyguard, a jailkeeper, or like an OS doc

[EeveeLution Army]

What the fuck is wrong with all of you

We let him live, if hes cop scum kill him, if not hes forced to conftown someone

We absolutely dont lynch a cop claim

Wisdom: What the fuck is wrong with you? Don’t lynch an uncc’d claim.
Wisdom keeps his vote on an uncc’d counterclaim on a wagon with no reasons behind it.

Jesus Wisdom is obvScum or just a hypocrite.

A cop living is much more valuable than a doc living with nothing to protect. We already lost cop docs dead tonight either way might as well lynch him ourselves.

[MathBlade]

What the fuck is wrong with all of you

We let him live, if hes cop scum kill him, if not hes forced to conftown someone

We absolutely dont lynch a cop claim

Wisdom: What the fuck is wrong with you? Don’t lynch an uncc’d claim.
Wisdom keeps his vote on an uncc’d counterclaim on a wagon with no reasons behind it.

Jesus Wisdom is obvScum or just a hypocrite.

A cop living is much more valuable than a doc living with nothing to protect. We already lost cop docs dead tonight either way might as well lynch him ourselves.

If he is the doctor then we force scum to do that kill rather than someone whose reads are a threat. If Pine is the doctor it will become clear. If Pine is the doctor and not killed scum have to deal with a potential protective same as before.

So no. I am pretty sure Pine is the doctor and if he is lying and a protective is out there then if that protective dies pine dies. Pine is literally on a timer.

I’ve townread Pine and still do. Lynching Pine imho is bad. Have a little faith and join me on Trinity.

[Pine]

Eh, I withheld it because I didn't want to give too much away, but you're right, it does deserve an explanation given antipathy for Follow the Cop on the part of reviewers.

I have an X-shot modifier. I'd rather not disclose how many shots I had, but it's few enough that I didn't use it N1.