Mini 2017: Encore Mafia - Now Without Cults [Endgame]

[Pine]

Awoo

BulletNLynchproof

Errantparabola
implosion
mastina

mutantdevle

Ms Marangal
Myloninja13

Pine

the worst NicoRobin Srceenplay

I was going to give Imp a pass for being a serious CW to Kokichi, but the guilty/vig information changes those circumstances.

It seems I've missed more claims than I thought. BNL, can you enlighten me?

[BNL]

Awoo VT
Mylo VT
Implosion Backup Vig
The worst Tracker, who tracked Kokichi to Wisdom

[BNL]

Why did you vote implosion yesterday?

[Pine]

Mostly lazy sheeping, didn't like some of the bad pushes he was making. I'm ambivalent towards him now, though my early TR and the fact that he was the Kokichi CW makes him probably Town.

I should really look closer at EP and mastina.

[mastina]

1) This is the biggest reason, and isn't purely mechanical, it's more pragmatic: with all of the setup info on the table for everyone to look at, we can collectively decide whether or not we think all PR claims are truthful based on balance, and narrow the lynchpool.

Yeah the thing is there's only one PR left unclaimed; we can instead not massclaim and agree we lynch any PR claim save for the one person who has a clear record demonstrating precisely what they are.
(I've known it since D1 since they accidentally gave it away VERY early on. To prove I know it--this player with the unclaimed PR had that PR in a game modded by a current-or-former skittle. Which I realize doesn't narrow it down that much; I can tell you type of skittle OR former/current if need be.)

We can avoid mislynches that might have occurred based on unclaimed information.

This will not happen. The player with the last role has been very overt with their breadcrumbs and upon their death it will be impossible to miss their night actions.

On that note, said player has a chance of dieing during the night, soooooooooooooooo.

3) We can audit everyone's completed games to ensure that claims aren't similar to scum roles they've had; in most cases here, confirmable role = confirmable alignment.

I already did this for the player in question. If they have any scumgame with this role or a role similar, I missed it.

Thus, this is worthless.

4) I've said this before, but I'll reiterate, because it's critically important to understand: we are ahead. Really, really ahead. In games, when you are ahead, you want to reduce the potential variance in the game so as to avoid as many unlikely loss situations as possible.

The thing about massclaim--and this is the biggest flaw with your argument:

Massclaim works on a principle which is almost identical to risk-reward.
It is gain, versus loss.

The time to massclaim is the time where the most is gained and the least is lost.

Right now, if we massclaimed, information which the scum desperately need would be given to them--meaning we lose a lot.
Yet that information gives the town nothing of actual use--meaning we gain nothing.

This is all you need in order to know massclaim is not happening today.

Or for a long time at that.

How do you know that they don't know who the fourth PR is?

Because if they did, then we would have had a nightkill last night which resulted in said PR being dead. The last PR is one which they can in fact kill. Quite easily, given how poorly they're hidden.

Instead, the LACK of nightkill serves as potential proof that they

don't

know. EVEN IF THEY KNOW THE PR'S IDENTITY, they don't know the PR's power.

And what's the downside of them knowing, given that they already know plenty of good nightkill choices?

Because giving a roadmap to the scum of who to kill is exactly the fucking thing we do if we're looking to turn our advantage into a loss?

[Pine]

Mastina

Who should I vote for?

[mastina]

Forgot to mention 5) we can force scum to 100% commit to a claim now, and prevent a possible power play later on. This ties hand-in-hand with the idea of reducing variance.

The one and only player who holds a PR this game not already claimed has absolutely zero wiggle room on it. They have locked this claim in since D1, and there is no way to back out of it.

They should thus remain hidden as long as humanly possible.

To clarify, it's suspicious because he's been a scum 1-shot tracker? The track yesterday no longer role-confirms him if he's scum (if he's scum, he could be any scum role srceen has had) since Kokichi flipped scum.

Objectively, yes, because of being a scum 1x tracker, the worst not claiming a night action tonight is, objectively speaking, suspect. While it's true that not being role-confirmed is the case, it would almost certainly if a scum fakeclaim be a mod-provided one. That having been said, while this is a fine debate to have in theory.

Fuck bringing it forward as anything other than a theoretical debate. the worst is town, period.

And isn't not having enough useful information on hand all the more reason to massclaim, to get as much useful information as possible?

Massclaiming won't give any useful information beyond the facts which are self-evident.

So yes. There's no useful unclaimed information, other than the information about the identity of the last PR.

even if Kokichi was widely scumread, or even

one of the most

widely scumread, or even *the most* widely scumread, that doesn't automatically mean that scum would have avoided making him make the kill if they had a choice (that is, if the other scum has no action).

Oh? Do tell then. Explain why scum would send a large scumspect to do the nightkill. We know it happened. So since it happened, why did it happen? What are the most likely causes for it to happen?

(Does anyone else think that if implosion is scum fakeclaiming backup vigilante, it doesn't make a whole lot of sense to advocate for a massclaim when it may be revealed there IS no other vigilante besides maybe BNL being the police, and there have never been 2 nightkills? The result of that is he = ded)

No it's the opposite.

By having no vigilante in the setup, implosion sets himself up to never be lynched.

[mastina]

Mastina
Who should I vote for?

implosion.

[implosion]

Oh? Do tell then. Explain why scum would send a large scumspect to do the nightkill. We know it happened. So since it happened, why did it happen? What are the most likely causes for it to happen?

because it's possible that both scum were large scumspects...

why do I have to spell this out?

It could be that, it could be that scum misjudged how big of general suspects they were, it could be because you're misjudging how big of general suspects kokichi or other people were, it could be because they were trying to outguess a theoretical tracker, it could be because they were scared of a watcher and wanted to send the more suspected scum, it could be because they thought the other scum was well-positioned enough to win the game alone if need be, it could be something we can't predict. It could be, like you've said, a power role, in which case I'd ask again, as I have many times, what power role I could possibly have that's relevant (the only ones are roleblocker, which as I've pointed out is useless in this setup with this playerlist, and rolecop, which is not especially strong). Townies are very bad at predicting which scum is going to make a nightkill; in this anecdote, Magna (who had claimed tracker the previous day) said that tracking me would have been an obviously idiotic choice because he'd given a scumread on me... when I had chosen to make the kill and I was in fact the only person worth tracking. It's not worth speculating on which scum would choose to make a kill because there are sufficiently many confounding variables that you're going to get on average much more accurate conclusions via scumhunting. Different scumteams think differently, and claiming that you can accurately predict how a team of people that you don't even know the complete identity of is going to think about such low-level decision making, decision making that different people and even different groups of the same people do completely differently, with any degree of accuracy is not something I see any reason to put stock in.

Not dying on the hill of massclaim, I've made my stances clear and disagree but it's not worth arguing.

[implosion]

It's good to see Pine entering the game; it'd be great to hear from him and EP some more depth on their thought processes throughout the game. And to hear from maragnal's replacement, of course.

Myloninja, do you have any particular suspects at this point? Any townreads other than the consensus ones?

[Myloninja13]

It's good to see Pine entering the game; it'd be great to hear from him and EP some more depth on their thought processes throughout the game. And to hear from maragnal's replacement, of course.

Myloninja, do you have any particular suspects at this point? Any townreads other than the consensus ones?

Sorry to disappoint, but not really? I have a null pile full of people who haven't given me a reason to townread them I guess?

[Awoo]

I mean, mylo is VT, but it would still be nice to kill this ^

[BNL]

Mastina why are you saying that we have only one unclaimed PR left? We still have five unclaimed players.

I eventually plan to go over why I had a random townread on Pine on Day 2 and why I retracted it, but I still feel that now is an inappropriate time.

Also waiting for Marangal's replacement, I think they have nice things in store for us.

[Errantparabola]

BNL is town
the worst is town
Awoo is town or at least towny

Mylo is towny
Still have no idea who implosion is actually supposed to be backing up but I'm assuming he's town

The rest are varying degrees of plausibility for last scum

Honestly that logic leads to BNL being super shady. Very early on Kokichi, then backed off of him and shopped around to Myloninja before jumping on the Implosion CW. Need to ISO him to assess reasoning. This last post trying to turn an offhand comment into suspicion is shady af too.

hahaha
think this is townposting

VOTE: mastina

[KittyMo]

Vote Count 3.02

[1] mastina ~ Errantparabola
[1] implosion ~ mastina
[1] Ms Marangal ~ Awoo

[8] Not Voting ~ BulletNLynchproof, implosion, mutantdevle, Ms Marangal, Myloninja13, Pine, the worst

With

10

alive, it's

6

to lynch!

Deadline is at (expired on 2018-07-26 16:00:00).

[Myloninja13]

Actually, is no lynching a good idea here at all?

@Mod Koki doesn't exist anymore lol.

[Awoo]

we are at even numbers, and the benefit of NL'ing now = more PR checks from tracker + mastina's secret admirer

as opposed to NL'ing in final 4 when maybe they would be dead. hmmm????????

[Errantparabola]

based on night info i think NLing is not a terrible strat. i'd rather get at someone today but I wouldn't disagree with an NL
I also think massclaiming is totes fine too

[mastina]

Oh? Do tell then. Explain why scum would send a large scumspect to do the nightkill. We know it happened. So since it happened, why did it happen? What are the most likely causes for it to happen?

because it's possible that both scum were large scumspects...

So who would you say that points to as being scum, then?

it could be that scum misjudged how big of general suspects they were

Having been Kokichi Oma's scum partner and seen him be scum on numerous occasions.

I can tell you Kokichi Oma does NOT do this.
He knows precisely how he is perceived and precisely how much of an issue that perception will be.

So if that did happen--okay, so who's the players that misjudged?

it could be because they thought the other scum was well-positioned enough to win the game alone if need be

Again, who does that implicate?

Different scumteams think differently, and claiming that you can accurately predict how a team of people that you don't even know the complete identity of is going to think about such low-level decision making, decision making that different people and even different groups of the same people do completely differently, with any degree of accuracy is not something I see any reason to put stock in.

Oh but I can. All it takes is putting myself in the scum's shoes. I look at the information I know, predict the information scum have on top of the information I know, and weave the two together to run probability analysis.

There are never certainties in mafia games. But it's ridiculously easy to find probabilities. In the rare instances I've had a PR able to interact with the nightkill, I've been reasonably good at accurately using it, save for the times where I couldn't do so thanks to the kill being me (which I predicted but had to assume was a wrong prediction even though it wasn't).

This is one of the main uses of situational awareness as town. Knowing what the situation of the town is, in general. If I know what the situation of the town is, then I know how to predict the outcome of what will happen with a reasonably high degree of accuracy. (For instance, having a VERY good read, in general, for when I will die in a game. Since it didn't happen last night--the time it was most optimal from a strategic play point of view for me to have died--in this game it's not gonna be until like N5 at the earliest.)

based on night info i think NLing is not a terrible strat.

ABSOLUTELY NOT, no.

There is a RIDICULOUSLY high chance we'll have two deaths in a night before mylo, thus, placing us back on odds if we lynch every day.

If we no-lynch now, we will have to fucking no lynch AGAIN when--not if, WHEN--that second death happens in order to get onto odds.

In other words.

It wastes two entire day phases.

I'd rather eat a lynch than let us no-lynch.

Still have no idea who implosion is actually supposed to be backing up but I'm assuming he's town

And there's your problem.

[Errantparabola]

Okey
VOTE: implosion

[implosion]

So who would you say that points to as being scum, then?

Again, who does that implicate?

I don't think it points to anyone in particular, because, as I think I've made clear, I don't think it's worth going down that path to try to find scum when direct scumhunting will be more accurate. "both scum were seen as scummy" is just one possible explanation, and I have no reason to assume that it's an accurate one.

In fact these two questions illustrate my point very well; the former would implicate players who were seen as scummy on d1, the latter players who were seen as townish on d1. I can reasonably use this to justify anyone as scum, and the probabilistic analysis that can be gotten in this way is, IMO, less likely to be accurate than other methods.

And I see no reason to believe you're especially accurate with this kind of analysis... especially when i know that (if you're town) you're wrong here.

---

EP, can you make your current feelings on my play this game explicit? You've been very wishy-washy about it since d2 and it's making reading you really annoying, and is looking less and less like what I expect from your town game.

[the worst]

backups don't have to actually have their role exist in the game in fairness

[mutantdevle]

VOTE: mastina

Please don't vote Mastina. They're a nice lady.

[mutantdevle]

On the subject of no lynching, I don't think we should do that now. We should save it until there are 6 or 4 players left so that the lynch pool is smaller.

[BNL]

EP I know you’ve unvoted, but Mastina is town because of the way they approached the unknown investigative.

On an unrelated note,
VOTE: Pine