Mini 2017: Encore Mafia - Now Without Cults [Endgame]

[Myloninja13]

mastina. i can't clear you for mechanical wifom. As you can see from my post I am considering the possibility that you are mafia. Please address the accusation "i think u might be mafia" for me.

What's there to address?

You literally in that very same post talked about the reasons why I'm town.

1. realize that I/we/everyone was putting too much stock into her aggression day 1 and mistook aggression for towniness
2.

probably look at her recent posts and see if they read kinda like sitting back instead of gamesolving(?)

3. notice that when discounting the aggression, mastina's towniness has been somewhere in the "just ok" range (which is where mafia typically are) and mylo's been spewing town in recent posts, something that felt bad to ignore due to "mechanics". But I think this is starting to actually make sense now.

I was suspicious of Kokichi Oma and Espeonage on D1. I advocated to keep town players alive. Fought against the BNL mislynch. Against the Momrangal mislynch. Against the Pine mislynch.

I've been fucking gamesolving since D1. In fact I HAD the game solved D1. Literally, completely solved. On D1.

Except you could have had two lynch-baity town players as your two biggest scumreads, and ended the day phase not on the flipped scum. Whereas both Awoo and I were strongly on that scum wagon. Not to mention the next day you advocated to go for a town player instead of obvious scum and used arguments that were either not reasonable or inconsequential to get there? Like, you do realise I also fought against the BNL mislynch? And I thought we had this game easily solved from whatever PR stuff was happening behind the scenes?

[Myloninja13]

And honestly.

What are you giving, off of this game, to help me here?

What are you giving, from this game, that shows why you're town?

That's what I want to know.

Not.
"This is outside my scum range."

That's a shitty-ass reason.
Scumplay evolves.
That's one of the reason why I'm as good a scum player as I am; I literally never play the same way twice.
I keep changing it up.
Doing differently.

What from this game.
Shows proof, hard proof, that you're TOWN.

That's what I'm after.
I can show how basically every single nightkill had me as a townread.
I can show how I've had right reads on basically everyone except for implosion. (The single read I've had wrong the entire game.)
But I can't show you anything outside of a scum range because literally nothing is outside of my scum range.

And by using that metric I will lose 100% of the time because I will always answer the same.
I can do that as scum.
It's just a matter of whether I WOULD.

So ask yourself.

Would I do the things scum have done this game; would I do the things I've done if I were scum?

I do kinda like this post, but eh at the same time saying "Nothing is outside of my scum range" kinda brings up the point that we can't actually prove your town by actual play then? Like, I mean if really nothing is out then I dunno if you would do this stuff?

[Myloninja13]

Another way of putting it: you two are young, so maybe you don't know the golden rule of mylo/lylo.
Not to trust mylo/lylo.

Ask any veteran player.
It's kinda annoying that I'm the only veteran player alive.
But they'd vouch for this, and even if not I'd NEVER lie about mafia theory and this is mafia theory talk.

Universally.
Any experienced player will tell you.
In mylo/lylo.
The scum player is playing identically to the town.
Because the scum player has basically the same overall stuff as the town players do.

To win the game.

You have to look at the game BEFORE lylo/mylo.
Because the actions BEFORE lylo/mylo mean more.

I wish I could explain the theory better. Maybe I can pull up the theory somewhere, but this is how it works.

Uh... okay then? I mean, I didn't think that it being mylo/lylo suddenly meant you couldn't read or judge people? Like, if I was scum I'd play my obvious 'Hating myself' style I'd have had for then entire game. And like I think I heard Ausuka mention that once in a marathon (Where I actually won for the second time as scum ever on this website ) before hammering the wrong person and losing lol. I mean I am not partiucularly skilled or have much experience either though, so I probably have to learn some stuff lol. But for now I'm going to, you know, try and solve the game using a mixture of pre-mylo, mylo and post-mylo information to help my decision.

[Myloninja13]

Awoo, can I have your most recent town and scum game?

[Myloninja13]

I did look through an ISO of Mastina's year ago scum game and was firstly impressed at the sheer amount of effort and power they put into it. And then secondly tried to see similarities that were actually genuine between this game and that one, and did find a few but I'd actually need to check a town game to see they're not just mastina traits lol.

[Awoo]

Town:

Cul-de-sac mislynched day 2. I panicked under pressure. Does this count as a game? Everyone just lurked.
viewtopic.php?f=51&t=76520

Taking justice into our own hands: got tricked/manipulated by 2/3 of the mafia. Caught a mafia hard but eddie cane replaced him and smooth talked me out of it. Fought against the scum lynch d1. Town clean sweep, no thanks to me.
viewtopic.php?f=53&t=75047



Scum:

Purgatory: read role PM, rolled over and died
viewtopic.php?f=84&t=74958

Iambic tetramafia: tried to play the exact same as eyes in the fog, instantly get called out, die, realize i can never do that again
viewtopic.php?f=53&t=73654

Eyes in the fog (newbie): first game onsite, play really intellectually, taking advantage of the fact no one knows me and hope to get underestimated.
viewtopic.php?f=50&t=73237

[Awoo]

oh and
* only thing that stopped me from getting mislynched in taking justice into our own hands is because a gunsmith inno'd me

[mastina]

Yeah, those posts are not similar in anything but subject matter. Notice that I have fun in the second one, actually seem interesting in the game and not sound fake as hell?

Not really, no!

What I see is the same pattern in both games of largely useless posting, which is mostly prod-dodging with the occasional content to have some semblance of looking like contribution...only, not actually putting anything into it.

Uh... okay then? I mean, I didn't think that it being mylo/lylo suddenly meant you couldn't read or judge people?

It means that during mylo/lylo, you can't trust what people say, because town and scum are acting identically. The reason why boils down to a simple principle. Town are acting with the same information as scum are at that point, more or less. Town and scum have the same motivation: at all costs, avoid getting lynched, and lynch a target player.

They have the same needs. They have the same goals. They have the same exact agenda, which is identical regardless of their alignment. I am telling you that I'd be playing this lylo identically as scum, because there would be nothing differentiating the two. Townplay and scumplay from players of a higher caliber is already nearly identical. Townplay and scumplay from players of a higher caliber is already very hard to differentiate between, even under normal circumstances. But because in lylo the goals are identical between alignments, so too is the play for them.

So you use content

prior to

mylo/lylo. Because content PRIOR TO mylo/lylo, has a clear town/scum agenda attached to it, and all actions prior to mylo/lylo would thus have an alignment motivation backing them.

That's not to say content in mylo/lylo is altogether worthless--but it's to say that content in mylo/lylo should be reflecting content from the rest of the game. What I mean by that is, content which is analyzing content throughout the game and talking and discussing about game-long, game-wide content is useful; content which is entirely unique to the phase of mylo/lylo is not.

For easy examples.

1585, exclusively mylo/lylo content, and thus, not something you can trust to hold alignment information. The post immediately above it, 1584, not exclusive mylo/lylo content, and thus, something you can trust to hold alignment information, because it is discussing prior play.

The same can be done for Awoo or for myself. 1597, exclusively mylo/lylo content, and thus, not something you can trust to hold alignment information. 1573, easy example of something you can trust to hold alignment information because it is not exclusive mylo/lylo content, due to being entirely about prior play.
1587, not mylo/lylo exclusive content, and thus, something you can trust to hold alignment information. 1586, a self-explanatory example of exclusive mylo/lylo content that doesn't hold alignment information.

I realize there is some ambiguity in the difference between the two. But the basic guideline is there. Reflecting light on actions prior to mylo/lylo holds alignment information, because it is explaining/weaving your narrative. Narratives hold alignment, which can be judged as such.

Actions exclusive to mylo/lylo don't hold alignment information, because they are isolated from the rest of the game, they hold no connection to it.

Basically.

Another way of thinking about it.

Actions done in mylo/lylo that are divorced from phases prior to mylo/lylo cannot be trusted--that detachment from the rest of the game is something not alignment indicative.

Actions done in mylo/lylo that are connected to phases prior to mylo/lylo can be trusted--that continuation from the rest of the game shows a continuation of the same alignment markers.

Even now I'm probably not explaining it as well as I should, but I tell you. Pine would back me up here. Marangal would back me up here. Errant and Wisdom would

probably

back me up here. And implosion most certainly would back me up here since this sort of theory talk is right up his alley and he'd vouch for it, just using far better logic and explanations.

I do kinda like this post, but eh at the same time saying "Nothing is outside of my scum range" kinda brings up the point that we can't actually prove your town by actual play then? Like, I mean if really nothing is out then I dunno if you would do this stuff?

That's my fucking point. I am easy to mislynch because I can't use the same defense. I can't say something is outside of my scumrange, because nothing is.

The closest I have to a defense is my standing policy: Balancing Possibilities, versus Probabilities. Which is the question.
Yes, I CAN do that as scum.
But WOULD I do that as scum.

Another aspect of that is risk-reward analysis. My guiding principle of scumplay is, always: lowest risk, for highest reward. So when you combine the two. What you get, is that the thing to look for is what I WOULD do, given the risks inherent to an action, compared to the reward from that action.

Except you could have had two lynch-baity town players as your two biggest scumreads, and ended the day phase not on the flipped scum.

Players being lynchbait is irrelevant to alignment. Nothing stops lynchbaity players from actually just being scum, and since I'm town it's guaranteed that one such lynchbait player

is

scum, so.

This is a point which basically relies on me being scum. In order to be evidence for me being scum. AKA, circular logic.

As for me not being on the flipped scum at the end of the day phase--no fucking shit? You fucking lynched him when I was V/LA.

To whit:

Btw before I forget:

MOD: I will be V/LA from Friday to Sunday, with

absolutely zero internet access

.

Declaration of V/LA.

It means that scum are unlikely to night kill us?

Nope! Noooooooot even remotely close.

My last post before leaving. Note the timestamp: Thu Jun 28, 2018 11:16 pm.

At that time?

[5] Awoo ~ mastina, Pine, the worst, BulletNLynchproof, mutantdevle
[4] Espeonage ~ implosion, Wisdom, Myloninja13, Ms Marangal
[3] BulletNLynchproof ~ Espeonage, Awoo, Kokichi Oma
[1] Not Voting ~ Errantparabola

Awoo was my main suspect, and the wagon on him was larger than the wagon on Espeonage. I had no reason to switch to Espeonage because as far as I was concerned it was switching from one scumspect to another.

[5] Espeonage ~ implosion, Wisdom, Myloninja13, Ms Marangal, Awoo
[4] Awoo ~ mastina, Pine, BulletNLynchproof, mutantdevle
[2] BulletNLynchproof ~ Espeonage, Kokichi Oma

Note the timestamp of 633. Sat Jun 30, 2018 3:40 am. While it's true that at this point I'd have reason to switch to Espeonage. I was V/LA. With zero fucking internet access. So it was humanly impossible for me to have switched at that point.

[7] Espeonage ~ implosion, Myloninja13, Awoo, the worst, BulletNLynchproof, Errantparabola, Kokichi Oma
[4] Awoo ~ mastina, Pine, mutantdevle, Espeonage
[2] BulletNLynchproof ~ Wisdom, Ms Marangal

Note the time of the lynch. Sat Jun 30, 2018 11:52 pm.

No fucking shit I wasn't on Espeonage. Because how the fuck was I supposed to get on that wagon when I was V/LA with zero internet access?

Also.

You point out that both you and Awoo were on the D1 lynch of scum.

I've got news for you.

That's a mark

against

you.

Not in favor of you.

You know why?

Because on D1 in a mini. Stats have shown, time and time again. That the town almost never manages to lynch scum without one or both scum bussing.

You already know one scum bussed because Kokichi Oma was the hammer.

Why do you think it's not possible for two scum to have bussed, when it's proven one did? And scum lynches in a mini are

notoriously

difficult to get on D1 without the support of scum?

Like.

If I had the time.

I could pull up the statistics for D1 scum lynches in mini normals. It'd take me a while to search the last five years or so, but overwhelmingly the data would back my point because I've been a fucking mini normal reviewer for that long and been watching those games play out endless numbers of times so I've seen it time and time again. Town lynches scum D1, only to lose later because scum bussed to get the scum lynch and town didn't realize it.

Or, alternatively, town lynches scum D1, and wins because scum bussed, town ignored the scum bussing and lynched them in spite of them having helped to lynch scum, causing steamroll town victories. But scum still bussed all the same.

Scum win, town win, regardless. Overwhelmingly. A d1 scum lynch is made possible by scum having bussed.

Not to mention the next day you advocated to go for a town player instead of obvious scum and used arguments that were either not reasonable or inconsequential to get there?

Yeah no.

My reasoning held true then and it is actually EVEN MORE TRUE now than ever before.

Kokichi Oma was doomed to die from a vig.

None of us three have held a scum role that could have stopped the vig--he was going to die to it no matter what. Do you deny this?
Okay. So if he was going to die to the vig no matter what.
Then what is the scum motivation in me arguing to let him live through the day?

There isn't any, because he was doomed to die no matter what.
He was a dead man walking.
We lynched him, but had we not. He, 100%, was going to die to BulletNLynchproof's vig.

Do you deny that?

Okay.

So with him dieing no matter what.

You then have to ask what the fuck scum motivation there was for me sticking my neck out for him, in spite of knowing he was going to die no matter what. And keep in mind! Because I knew that mutant was the only PR left in the game, I knew that there were no roles left to surprise me.

And then you weigh the counter.

What's the town motivation to letting Kokichi Oma live?

Prove BulletNLynchproof as town, conftowning him beyond all measure of doubt. Furthermore, if Kokichi Oma were in fact town rather than scum, allowing us to have three town-controlled deaths rather than just one or two. (Which is what we got by lynching Kokichi Oma.)

You say unreasonable arguments.

I maintain that lynching Kokichi Oma was the unreasonable option. It was better from a play perspective by every metric to just fucking vig him, and this is self-evident when you look at the facts.

Unless you want to deny any of this. Or provide a counter to it.

I'm right because I know my fucking mafia theory. It's my shtick. It's what I fucking do. Lynching Kokichi Oma was a mistake, because vigging Kokichi Oma was the superior option in every way. And the results of the game are proof enough of this fact. The whole time, mind you. Not once did I deny Kokichi Oma was obvscum. Quite the opposite, I was the strongest proponent of it.

But I have gone on record before (and can link you to it if need be) and will do so many times again. That sometimes. Lynching the player most likely to be scum

isn't

the optimal play. Because sometimes. There are good reasons to opt for other options, specifically, options which allow the town to be given more information than if they had opted for the easy scum lynch.

Oh! And there's another way of putting it, too. I'm going to quote Ankamius here, because she's someone who has a similar enough viewpoint to my own that her words help to explain my view on things.

I've seen a few games that have a scum/3p lynch day 1 and an unreadable day 2

I've yet to see town win those games

that's part of the reason I say scum lynches aren't necessarily good for town

the only scum lynch that truly matters is the last one

the best play for town at any one time is the one that give town the biggest chances of achieving this

I'm the type of player that tries to find scum motivation behind how the gamestate evolves, and that's easier the more scum there are in the game, it's the single biggest reason why I tend to be significantly better and far more accurate in games where scum are actually winning than when town are winning, because scum motivation is easier to determine when there's more scum and they are successfully enacting whatever plan they're doing

games like this where scum just kind of drop off like flies early on are a lot harder to figure out because the way the game evolves is significantly more likely to be just town driven while also being harder to find scum in a vacuum since there's less tools available to find them with, so it's way more difficult to tell which wagons are purely town driven and which ones are scum-influenced

that's not even getting into the territory of gambits/planned busses (ask sakura about corpse party for this one) or situations like scum gambiting a bus and getting just enough towncred that the vig doesn't kill them, etc.

I'm not arguing that scumflips are bad

I'm saying that scumflips aren't good just because they're scumflips

yeah scumflips are very good info to work off of when town is in a position to take advantage of it, which generally requires town to be able to work with each other effectively already

if town isn't even able to reach that stage, then no amount of scumflips is going to be enough to swing the game to a town win

Don't underestimate town's ability to get really cocky off an early scum lynch

Ankamius's viewpoint on the matter is basically similar enough to my own.

This is a series of quotes from her in a completed game. Know what happened? Scum lynched D1 and early into the game all but one member of the scumteam were annihilated. Last scum still won. For exactly these reasons.

Lack of optimization, essentially.

Yes, Kokichi Oma was scum.
Yes, lynching Kokichi Oma was a scum lynch.
But look where that's gotten us so far.
Whereas vigging Kokichi Oma would have put us in a much better position overall.

Your point is proof that I'm town in fact. I would not have argued for Kokichi Oma's survival as scum, knowing that doing so would be detrimental to my wincon. Because Kokichi Oma being vigged was the optimal town play, arguing for it would be

playing against a scum wincon

. Scum WANTED Kokichi Oma lynched. Because scum WANTED to deny town that extra information.

I was fucking right.
Because I know my fucking theory.

[mastina]

The closest I have to a defense is my standing policy: Balancing Possibilities, versus Probabilities. Which is the question.
Yes, I CAN do that as scum.
But WOULD I do that as scum.

Another aspect of that is risk-reward analysis. My guiding principle of scumplay is, always: lowest risk, for highest reward. So when you combine the two. What you get, is that the thing to look for is what I WOULD do, given the risks inherent to an action, compared to the reward from that action.

Not to mention the next day you advocated to go for a town player instead of obvious scum and used arguments that were either not reasonable or inconsequential to get there?

Yeah no.

My reasoning held true then and it is actually EVEN MORE TRUE now than ever before.

Kokichi Oma was doomed to die from a vig.

None of us three have held a scum role that could have stopped the vig--he was going to die to it no matter what. Do you deny this?
Okay. So if he was going to die to the vig no matter what.
Then what is the scum motivation in me arguing to let him live through the day?

There isn't any, because he was doomed to die no matter what.
He was a dead man walking.
We lynched him, but had we not. He, 100%, was going to die to BulletNLynchproof's vig.

Do you deny that?

Okay.

So with him dieing no matter what.

You then have to ask what the fuck scum motivation there was for me sticking my neck out for him, in spite of knowing he was going to die no matter what. And keep in mind! Because I knew that mutant was the only PR left in the game, I knew that there were no roles left to surprise me.

And then you weigh the counter.

What's the town motivation to letting Kokichi Oma live?

Prove BulletNLynchproof as town, conftowning him beyond all measure of doubt. Furthermore, if Kokichi Oma were in fact town rather than scum, allowing us to have three town-controlled deaths rather than just one or two. (Which is what we got by lynching Kokichi Oma.)

You say unreasonable arguments.

I maintain that lynching Kokichi Oma was the unreasonable option. It was better from a play perspective by every metric to just fucking vig him, and this is self-evident when you look at the facts.

Unless you want to deny any of this. Or provide a counter to it.

I'm right because I know my fucking mafia theory. It's my shtick. It's what I fucking do. Lynching Kokichi Oma was a mistake, because vigging Kokichi Oma was the superior option in every way. And the results of the game are proof enough of this fact. The whole time, mind you. Not once did I deny Kokichi Oma was obvscum. Quite the opposite, I was the strongest proponent of it.

But I have gone on record before (and can link you to it if need be) and will do so many times again. That sometimes. Lynching the player most likely to be scum

isn't

the optimal play. Because sometimes. There are good reasons to opt for other options, specifically, options which allow the town to be given more information than if they had opted for the easy scum lynch.

Oh! And there's another way of putting it, too. I'm going to quote Ankamius here, because she's someone who has a similar enough viewpoint to my own that her words help to explain my view on things.

I've seen a few games that have a scum/3p lynch day 1 and an unreadable day 2

I've yet to see town win those games

that's part of the reason I say scum lynches aren't necessarily good for town

the only scum lynch that truly matters is the last one

the best play for town at any one time is the one that give town the biggest chances of achieving this

I'm the type of player that tries to find scum motivation behind how the gamestate evolves, and that's easier the more scum there are in the game, it's the single biggest reason why I tend to be significantly better and far more accurate in games where scum are actually winning than when town are winning, because scum motivation is easier to determine when there's more scum and they are successfully enacting whatever plan they're doing

games like this where scum just kind of drop off like flies early on are a lot harder to figure out because the way the game evolves is significantly more likely to be just town driven while also being harder to find scum in a vacuum since there's less tools available to find them with, so it's way more difficult to tell which wagons are purely town driven and which ones are scum-influenced

that's not even getting into the territory of gambits/planned busses (ask sakura about corpse party for this one) or situations like scum gambiting a bus and getting just enough towncred that the vig doesn't kill them, etc.

I'm not arguing that scumflips are bad

I'm saying that scumflips aren't good just because they're scumflips

yeah scumflips are very good info to work off of when town is in a position to take advantage of it, which generally requires town to be able to work with each other effectively already

if town isn't even able to reach that stage, then no amount of scumflips is going to be enough to swing the game to a town win

Don't underestimate town's ability to get really cocky off an early scum lynch

Ankamius's viewpoint on the matter is basically similar enough to my own.

This is a series of quotes from her in a completed game. Know what happened? Scum lynched D1 and early into the game all but one member of the scumteam were annihilated. Last scum still won. For exactly these reasons.

Lack of optimization, essentially.

Yes, Kokichi Oma was scum.
Yes, lynching Kokichi Oma was a scum lynch.
But look where that's gotten us so far.
Whereas vigging Kokichi Oma would have put us in a much better position overall.

Your point is proof that I'm town in fact. I would not have argued for Kokichi Oma's survival as scum, knowing that doing so would be detrimental to my wincon. Because Kokichi Oma being vigged was the optimal town play, arguing for it would be

playing against a scum wincon

. Scum WANTED Kokichi Oma lynched. Because scum WANTED to deny town that extra information.

I was fucking right.
Because I know my fucking theory.

You can actually combine these two quite effectively. Every action I do is

possible

from scumastina. The question is whether it's probable--and for the probability, when you weigh risk versus reward.

What's the risk for defending Kokichi Oma on D2?
I get exposed as scum for defending a scumbuddy.
What's the reward for defending Kokichi Oma on D2?
Jackshit, because Kokichi Oma is guaranteed to die N2 even if I succeed.

Defending Kokichi Oma as his scum partner has zero reward (because Kokichi Oma dies regardless of what I do, just a question of during the day or during the night), yet tremendous risk, attached to it. The polar opposite of optimal play.
So while it's

possible

I could do that as scum.

By far. The most

probable

answer is simply...I wouldn't.

[mastina]

Incidentally, a fair amount of my theory talk you can find listed here, with a more complete list here that contains some obsolete articles.

I feel like this is particularly important because this literally feels like a Road to Rome game where the IC lived to lylo, and by virtue of having lived to lylo, the newbies are assuming the IC must be scum just because of that fact alone. Not an exact metaphor but the parallels are there.

I know my mafia theory. I take pride in it. I never lie about it in a game, regardless of alignment because lying about theory is just something you. don't. fucking. do. It's deplorable. Theory of the game is holy to me, because it is something that I enjoy on a level transcending an individual game. Lying about it would forever taint the theory, and I'd never abide by that.

And because I know my mafia theory. I also know the mechanics attached to it. I am not perfect at mechanics, mind you--I am prone to errors from oversights on my part. But these oversights are never deliberate and entirely from me being human, flawed, and simply derping; once I realize I made a mistake, I correct it and move on. It's also literally my JOB to know mafia theory. As a game reviewer and moderator, I need to know the theory of the game to help design/review/moderate the game. And while reviewer oversights happen, while I make more moderator errors than I'd care to admit, by and large, I know what I'm talking about.

Mafia theory is to some extent, in some areas, subjective. (This can be traced back to a simple factor: what works for one person won't work for another, and thus, players have to customize their theory to suit their style.) My articles come in two flavors. Things that are self-evident that nobody put into article form before me but were widespread even without me, or things which are more my opinion on the particular subject. But while there are many areas that are subjective, there are quite a number that are not. Where hard objectivity based on theory, statistics, probability, and whatnot dictate what proper play is.

And to explain once more from where I'm coming from on this.
My particular style relies on engagement. I am, inherently, lazy. I am forgetful. I am a procrastinator. I'll say I'll do something, then not do it. I'll promise to do something, then not deliver it. I will forever forget to do the things I by all rights should be doing. I am at my worst when people are relying on me, because when they rely on me, I let them down.

I am at my best when people engage with me. From this engagement, I can explain my viewpoints, talk to them about theirs, and come to a better understanding of the game.

I also have a theory of pushing. I push hard, push extremely hard, against my scumspects, and this is for the purposes, more or less, of that engagement. Of that engagement, because from that engagement, information is generated, and from the information generated, I am given direction to go in the future.

And a problem I am having right now is that I am facing two incredibly similar styles, when my style is vastly different. So what I need is full engagement. On the things I mention, but also with one another.

[Awoo]

Okay, so you really know your theory and you are passionate about it. Good for you! Now you wanted to engage right? What did you want to discuss.

[mastina]

Just saw this.

The closest thing is if someone's actions, if scum, would guarantee them a loss when otherwise they would have a good shot at winning

Killing the player townreading me with 100% confidence when I knew that kill would implicate me and I had the option of just no-killing? Pretty much exactly that.

Okay, so you really know your theory and you are passionate about it. Good for you! Now you wanted to engage right? What did you want to discuss.

Literally everything else in that series of posts.

1593, I answered you. You wanted to know where the gamesolving is; it's in literally the entirety of my posts because I've done it the entire fucking game. Also, you said that Mylo's posts in lylo were more genuine--but I talk about that in 1597, with more in it during 1607.

I asked you a question in 1596. What have you given, in this game, to help me show you're town?

What do you think of my defense in 1608, where I talk about my actions?

You're skipping all of that to focus on one detail which is frankly a sidenote.

[mastina]

Also, have to leave right now, but.
What do you think of Mylo's content across the whole game? Do you think my description of it is accurate? And do you think that description matches his prior scumgames? (Because I do.)

[Awoo]

yeah, thanks for 1597. kinda funny how mylo said "its mylo, my time to shine!" funny in your context isn't it
@ 1608 I don't really think much of it, sorry. Its not very hard to do something without any reward and then say "i had no reward to do it". I read it as if you never posted that.

At my question what have I done to show that I am town? Well I won't use any content posted today since you don't like that. Let me describe what I have done that makes me towny:


pedit: !remindme reply to mastina's comment about mylo's scumgames

[Awoo]

ok so TODO:

towncase for myself. Start with BNL push. Go to my desperation at the end of day 1. Explain my passive behavior through the rest of the game.

scumreview for mylo. Look at his games with asetic and pgo. I anticipate they will look similar. I will note that some things have been a little bit over the top this game. "look at me im sheeping someone i townread sheepity sheep look at me this is the exact same game i play as town"

[mastina]

@ 1608 I don't really think much of it, sorry. Its not very hard to do something without any reward and then say "i had no reward to do it".

Then you and I can never come to terms because that is exclusively the way I think.

EVERYTHING can be called wifom.
So if everything is called wifom, you have a choice.
Either you take a ridiculous extreme by trusting everything or equally as absurd trusting nothing (that frankly is even worse).

Or you recognize that you need to reframe how you think of wifom.

And I think of wifom in terms of probabilities, versus possibilities. ANYTHING is possible, by wifom. What matters is what's most likely. By the probabilities. And the best tool for probability analysis is risk-reward calculation: What would be gained from this set of actions, versus what would be lost from that set of actions, in best/worst-case scenarios and everything in-between.

The game of mafia relies, inherently, on analyzing motivation. Ask what most top-tier scumhunters use as their main scumhunting tool, and most of them will tell you motivation. A fair amount will in fact answer meta, but meta is an extension of motivation. By that I mean, meta is a useful tool in establishing patterns of thought. What a player is likely to think (hey there's that word again! Probability, versus possibility), what that player is likely to do, and from this, establishing an alignment for their given actions.

By looking at the actions of a player, you then analyze them. And the base question is always. "Do these actions make more sense coming from town, or coming from scum?" And that is something motive determines. You look at the motive from every angle. "This is what the motive would be as town". "This is what the motive would be as scum". And then you compare the two. Which of the two motives is stronger?

It all ties together. Risk-reward. Possibilities versus Probabilities. Motive, mindset, even meta. They're all related to one another, intricately linked by these simple processes. And that's both how I scumhunt, and how I play as scum. As scum I utilize risk-reward calculations to optimize reward, and minimize risk; as town, I analyze those same patterns to find scum, working on a base assumption which goes, more or less.

That, essentially. Basically every player on some level knows and/or uses these concepts, even if they don't realize it on a more conscious level. Scum may not put that much thought into it, and town definitely don't, but they still operate by those base rules. I generally don't unpack my thought processes this much in a game, but this is how I have come to view the game and it's a strategy that works damn well.

But it's not a strategy which is such an exact science that I'm guaranteed to get it right; there's guesswork involved. And right now, I'm having a hard time making the right guess. So yes. I do need those things from you. The towncase and analysis on Mylo. And preferably further thoughts on me, because you haven't unpacked them that much other than saying it's possible I'm scum and that my townness is only middle-town. (Which is precisely the area I'm at when actually town.)

[mastina]

Another way of putting it: motivation analysis is the hallmark of like 90% of veteran players especially the top tier ones. They look at the motivations driving actions.
Yet what is motivational analysis when you think about it?
It's guessing what a person is thinking.
Guessing what a person is thinking is a form of wifom.
And yet. Motivational analysis is still one of the top-tier scumhunting tools. It's because of the framework of what's most probable. By assuming the most probable is the correct one, usually, you're right.

But how do you determine which is the most probable one in the first place?
To some extent guesswork is involved, yet there IS a form of metric used to help make it go from blind guess to more educated guesswork. And that's where risk-reward analysis comes into play; "what do they gain from this as scum", versus "what do they lose from this as scum", and the inverse, "what were they hoping to gain from this as town", versus "what were they willing to risk losing as town"; when you look at it in that way. You understand how I operate. Because usually. There is one option that is stronger than the other.

My main struggle here is that there

isn't

an option stronger than the other for me--and I need help getting it.

[mastina]

My main struggle here is that there

isn't

an option stronger than the other for me--and I need help getting it.

Maybe I can extrapolate on this even further.

FOR AWOO:

The town viewpoint for Awoo would, more or less, be that Awoo is a townie who had confidence that Mylo was scum, but being town, has the stupid paranoia all townies have come lylo, and is reconsidering even though nine times out of ten that costs the town the game. (I'm not sure if I wrote an article on the subject of paranoia or not, but my base sentiment there is "fuck paranoia". I think I opted to write probability versus possibility in place of that though, because paranoia is, when you think about it. Just idiotically playing up a possibility and talking yourself into believing it's real in spite of the probabilities that previously told you the right answer.)

Awoo's paranoia would then be a sign of not knowing who the scum is, and being unsure.

The scum viewpoint for Awoo would, more or less, be that Awoo was buttering up to me the whole game. Awoo was calling me town the entire time, and trying to get me to see Awoo as town the entire time, and it worked eventually (albeit mostly due to mutant lying). By trying to keep that townread, by trying to play it up, Awoo would have a shot at victory. And Awoo's lack of effort would reflect this, in that Awoo was happy with the gamestate and didn't want to force it to change. So making as little effort/push as possible would fit.

Furthermore, Awoo's stance on me being scum came...but only after Myloninja proposed the possibility, so Awoo could be scum leaving options open, hoping one of us votes the other.

FOR MYLONINJA:

The town viewpoint for Myloninja would, more or less, be that Myloninja is a town player who realized that if he didn't step up his game he'd be the game-ending mislynch. Not having really done much the whole game, he doesn't have much in the way of stances, so he doesn't know who the scum is, and is unsure of the two options. His first focus is on surviving, so that he isn't the mislynch; his second focus is on finding the final scum.

The scum viewpoint for Myloninja would, more or less, be that Myloninja is a scum player who realized if he didn't step up his game he'd lose. Not having cared much the whole game, he would be at a disadvantage, and would need to keep his options open. His first focus is on surviving, so that he doesn't lose; his second focus is on lynching someone else.

That's maybe not the best way of putting it.

But both are, approximately, equal in town/scum. There's reasons for both to be town and reasons for both to be scum and neither is inherently stronger than the other--and I am asking for engagement so I can get somewhere with it.

[mastina]

(And yes I am fully aware I can write one of those for myself as well but there's not much point in me doing that aside from to prove I can and to reiterate why you don't trust mylo/lylo content due to alignment being impossible to determine.)

[Awoo]

So here's my take on it. The three of us have played largely similar games outside of LYLO. Low presence outside of day 1. Larger presence in day 1 except for mylo who was a name tossed out there type suspect. And that's the thing.......

I came under heavy suspiscion day 1. By day 2 everyone's first post was "awoo is town"
Mastina came under light suspiscion day 1. By day 2 everyone's consensus was not really considering as mafia. And the thing is that mastina was right about the whole kill kokichi at night thing. And the thing about that thing is that mastina was the one who was pushing for it so hard with no motvation yeah ok I see where this argument was coming from.
Mylo was at the middle-bottom of reads list day 1. Then he just faded away without ever being town.

I do want to lynch mylo.

[KittyMo]

Vote Count 7.02

[3] Not Voting ~ Awoo, mastina, Myloninja13

Deadline is at (expired on 2018-08-22 23:00:00).

[mastina]

Awoo, ETA on the stuff you promised?

[Myloninja13]

Okay, I can finally get back to this.

[Myloninja13]

Mastina's newer posting is solid here, but I'm hoping to see more of Awoo before I make my decision. If it's all right with you guys, I'd want a vote down with at least ~36 hours left so that if we got a scum in the votes the other person would have enough time to just focus fully on who is more likely scum.

[Myloninja13]

So here's my take on it. The three of us have played largely similar games outside of LYLO. Low presence outside of day 1. Larger presence in day 1 except for mylo who was a name tossed out there type suspect. And that's the thing.......

I came under heavy suspiscion day 1. By day 2 everyone's first post was "awoo is town"
Mastina came under light suspicion day 1. By day 2 everyone's consensus was not really considering as mafia. And the thing is that mastina was right about the whole kill kokichi at night thing. And the thing about that thing is that mastina was the one who was pushing for it so hard with no motvation yeah ok I see where this argument was coming from.
Mylo was at the middle-bottom of reads list day 1. Then he just faded away without ever being town.

I do want to lynch mylo.

Just wondering, is the latter part because of the prior reasoning? Because I'm pretty sure if I was wagoned against scum and got hide 'cleared' most people would consider me town too lol. And besides, the reason I survived was mostly because The Worst knew how to read me and then Mutant 'cleared' me later too lol.