Mini 2019: Game Throwing UPick Game over!

[Mas y Menos]

ur face been prod

someone addressed by read on flubbernugger being omgus and I don't think that's good reasoning, yes I notice scummy stuff earlier when done by the players voting me, that's normal guys

~Menos

[Not_Mafia]

VOTE: Flubber

[BNL]

Something I've just thought about the neighbourhoods:
Because ceejay kills anyone who joins a PT with him, we should get the two scummiest people to buy the neighbour along with ceejay himself to get two extra effective lynches.

Heey. Just coming in to correct this.

Nothing bad actually happens to those who end up in a pt with me.

The only thing that would happen is I would have some explaining to do.

Hmm I wonder if I should roleclaim to straighten things out, since neighborhoods are looking important this game. That would likely get me lynched tho.

Oh.

Oops

Please don't fullclaim, it's not necessary at this point.

[BNL]

Let's look at it logically at just how this pans out. I will be assuming 3 scum all throughout, for the record.

Triple-Lynch Worst Case: By lynching 3 Townies in one day, we'd set ourselves to 10 people by nightfall, scum takes their NK, and Day 2 starts with 3 scum among 9 alive. Another day cycle later and we're at LYLO on Day 3 with 3 scum among 7 alive and must lynch scum all 3 days in a row to stay alive.
Triple-Lynch gets 1 Scum: We somehow get a scum to suicide into this plan or die to the main lynch, which sets us on course to hit LYLO by Day 4 with 2 scum among 5 players.
Triple-Lynch gets 2 Scum: We get 2 scum, probably 1 by lynch and 1 by suiciding into this plan. Seems highly unlikely to me, but it does set us on course to hit LYLO on Day 5, with plenty of time to find that 1 last scum.
Triple-Lynch True Best Case: We force 2 scum to suicide into this plan and lynch the 3rd. We win Day 1 without a single dead Townie. Feels like a dream to me, but scum would never go with this.

In our worst-case scenario, we lose an entire day's worth of material from votes to discussion to accusations, and with a list of people that are now disliked for not following with this risky plan. It's a pretty bleak outcome with so much less information for Town to work off of, and makes it a lot easier for the scum to win by speeding things up like this. If we hit 1 scum we hit LYLO Day 4, our heading at the standard 1 NK 1 lynch speed, with fewer people and fewer scum to sort out and find, but even then how much easier is it really going to be? Hitting 2 or more scum on the first day just seems highly unlikely to me, although it would truly be amazing and almost guarantees a Town win.

It just depends way too much on finding scum Day 1 for my liking, which is awkward from a statistical standpoint. I even went off and did the math, assuming 3 scum out of 13 (a roughly 23% chance for any individual to be scum), and the odds of success in hitting scum in any of the 3 kills added up to 54.35%. We could improve this somewhat by knocking off some of the less likely candidates like ScumBeGone and Messiah, but knocking just those 2 out still only gets us to a 61.10% chance of hitting scum in any of those 3 lynches that will shoot us in the foot if we miss. Knock out 4 people, and

These numbers are just pure randomness, so the odds are slightly higher than this because we're people, not robots just picking people at random. Still, none of this analysis or math can be bent to fit in unexpected kills or events, such as a Vigilante (which could put us to MYLO on Day 2 in a worst-case scenario at 3 scum in 8 people, which is dangerous given how slow Day 1 has been so far), or in how much a set votelist of people that didn't go with the plan might cause us.

Overall, it feels too much like a risky witch-hunt where we force people to die to Ceejay/Momslot or die to rope and hope we get lucky on minimal information. Getting scum D1 would be really nice, don't get me wrong, but if it fails it fails big-time here. I think it's just too big of a failing condition (losing an entire day) for too little payoff (having 1 less scum and 1 less town on day 4).

I know this is completely borked, but Magik is definitely town for this post.

[ScumBeGone]

My big question is why Nico would try and buy them after all 3 had been bought. A joke? Two people with the same idea at roughly the same time? A belief that an individual may only buy 1 ability and mocking Random for typing it in 3 times?

Like, Random's explained his choice, questionable though it is,

but I wanna hear Nico's reasoning for going after them when they get back from their V/LA. Someone remind me to poke them about it.

looks like their reasoning was to use it for some pleasant chat—which maybe could include some gametalk, but doesn’t really seem that serious. now is your time to prod nicorobin further, if you’d like!

[ScumBeGone]

@myloninja, the mylo in your name has inspired me to make a special question for you. let’s say this game was in mylo right now, and you had the deciding vote for lynching someone (and it could be anyone). who are you lynching right now and why?

If it were mylo, I'd probably do a bunch of check-ups on what's been said so far, but if I had to pick at this moment probably NM. I believe this is closer to the scum!NM I've seen before.

It is great for the purpose of critical analysis later that you took a solid stance on someone here; NM is common lynchbait though. What—from your experience with him—do you feel makes this game one he’s more likely to flip scum in?

[MagikHorse]

ur face been prod

someone addressed by read on flubbernugger being omgus and I don't think that's good reasoning, yes I notice scummy stuff earlier when done by the players voting me, that's normal guys

~Menos

If you had said something against the proposed plan, such as a reason not to follow through with it or even saying I didn't care enough, I would've been fine with you. Instead, you relied on an Ad Hominem, attacking him for suggesting that you did anything wrong instead instead of saying anything to counter the point beyond calling it "postulation" when such postulation was legitimate. There's no reason to attack him for making a point and ignoring everything that point meant instead.

Also, if you've noticed "scummy stuff...by the players voting me", then what is it and why have you not said a word about it until now? Just saying, you're not helping anyone by withholding information or ideas.

[MagikHorse]

Also, while I'm on Mas y Menos, why is OMGUS not a good enough reason to suspect someone this early in the game?

[MagikHorse]

Ceejay, it's a question someone already asked to Nico, but if you did get stuck in a neighborhood what would you do with it?

[Feysal]

I promised that I would be here today, and I have read everything, though it has taken me longer than expected. Now where to begin?

I think there has been rather too much talk about special game mechanics, and I'm surprised at people town reading each other based on that. You know that scum need to fake activity to appear town, but pretending to scumhunt is not that easy. People can be uncomfortable with lying, and it can be hard to display conviction for made up suspects. When talking about game mechanics though even scum can be completely genuine. For example, I felt troubled seeing Messiah being townread for his role in helping Clint Eastwood get to L-1 and back. To be clear, I have a town read on Messiah, but definitely not for that.

...all the context they swept under the rug.

What context?

Also, while I don't agree with town reading someone for mechanics talk, scum reading someone for not participating is worse. Why would Mas y Menos and Not Mafia

not

follow the plan for free town cred? If anything, I think them not doing so works in their favor, and Not Mafia somewhat more for being explicit about it.

I'm buying hoods for an NAI reason which basically means that the odds of me being scum here are approx 3/13. This also helps us get reads later on from the way people petition me for hoods.

I have three problems with this.

First, I don't see why scum would be eager to get in neighborhoods. For them, it would mean exposing themselves to interrogation by town and risk of being caught. Sure, some scum can be confident enough to use neighborhoods to manipulate town, but I rather think those are the exception.

Second, do you expect scum to fall in your trap when you just announced it is a trap?

Third, what makes you think you can sell anything to other players? According to the mod in post 3, you can buy items and cancel purchases. There is no mention of being able to do anything else.

I think Randomidget currently looks worst. His plan of using the neighborhoods does not look well thought out at all, and besides that he has done little.

VOTE: Randomidget

@Feysal, once you return, I'd like to engage your services here—are you townreading anyone that we are not?

My current town reads are BNL, Horsey, Ceejay, Messiah, Eastwood and you, roughly in that order.

BNL was a slight town read for me, but that suggestion of using the neighborhoods as extra lynches earns him major town credit. Yeah, apparently it can't be done, but he did not know that then, and I find it hard to believe scum would have made that suggestion. I wish someone would have thought of keeping the neighborhoods and only using them on later days to mitigate the risks Horsey pointed out. That would have been an even stronger read.

Horsey looks fairly town, and his analysis of using the neighborhoods is solid. Yeah, it is mechanics talk, but I rather think scum would have let the town argue about it rather than shut down that idea.

Ceejay is probably town just for the claim. I don't hold the confusion about whether neighborizing him would be lethal against him, I believe the claim to be town motivated anyway. If scum had that role they would want town to visit them, and the motivation to lie would be pretty weak. I don't see why scum would be that concerned about vigilante or investigator roles when we don't even know if there are any.

By the way, was there a reason for you to phrase your question in post 178 the way you did? I thought it was curious.

[Myloninja13]

@myloninja, the mylo in your name has inspired me to make a special question for you. let’s say this game was in mylo right now, and you had the deciding vote for lynching someone (and it could be anyone). who are you lynching right now and why?

If it were mylo, I'd probably do a bunch of check-ups on what's been said so far, but if I had to pick at this moment probably NM. I believe this is closer to the scum!NM I've seen before.

It is great for the purpose of critical analysis later that you took a solid stance on someone here; NM is common lynchbait though. What—from your experience with him—do you feel makes this game one he’s more likely to flip scum in?

NM is very lynchbaity, but my original thinking was when he's more concrete and confident in his reads he's usually scum. But I have already realised that it makes no sense seeing some of his town games again lol.

[Messiah Complex]

To be clear, I have a town read on Messiah, but definitely not for that.

Literally can't wait to hear what you are townreading us for.

[ScumBeGone]

Let's look at it logically at just how this pans out. I will be assuming 3 scum all throughout, for the record.

Triple-Lynch Worst Case: By lynching 3 Townies in one day, we'd set ourselves to 10 people by nightfall, scum takes their NK, and Day 2 starts with 3 scum among 9 alive. Another day cycle later and we're at LYLO on Day 3 with 3 scum among 7 alive and must lynch scum all 3 days in a row to stay alive.
Triple-Lynch gets 1 Scum: We somehow get a scum to suicide into this plan or die to the main lynch, which sets us on course to hit LYLO by Day 4 with 2 scum among 5 players.
Triple-Lynch gets 2 Scum: We get 2 scum, probably 1 by lynch and 1 by suiciding into this plan. Seems highly unlikely to me, but it does set us on course to hit LYLO on Day 5, with plenty of time to find that 1 last scum.
Triple-Lynch True Best Case: We force 2 scum to suicide into this plan and lynch the 3rd. We win Day 1 without a single dead Townie. Feels like a dream to me, but scum would never go with this.

In our worst-case scenario, we lose an entire day's worth of material from votes to discussion to accusations, and with a list of people that are now disliked for not following with this risky plan. It's a pretty bleak outcome with so much less information for Town to work off of, and makes it a lot easier for the scum to win by speeding things up like this. If we hit 1 scum we hit LYLO Day 4, our heading at the standard 1 NK 1 lynch speed, with fewer people and fewer scum to sort out and find, but even then how much easier is it really going to be? Hitting 2 or more scum on the first day just seems highly unlikely to me, although it would truly be amazing and almost guarantees a Town win.

It just depends way too much on finding scum Day 1 for my liking, which is awkward from a statistical standpoint. I even went off and did the math, assuming 3 scum out of 13 (a roughly 23% chance for any individual to be scum), and the odds of success in hitting scum in any of the 3 kills added up to 54.35%. We could improve this somewhat by knocking off some of the less likely candidates like ScumBeGone and Messiah, but knocking just those 2 out still only gets us to a 61.10% chance of hitting scum in any of those 3 lynches that will shoot us in the foot if we miss. Knock out 4 people, and

These numbers are just pure randomness, so the odds are slightly higher than this because we're people, not robots just picking people at random. Still, none of this analysis or math can be bent to fit in unexpected kills or events, such as a Vigilante (which could put us to MYLO on Day 2 in a worst-case scenario at 3 scum in 8 people, which is dangerous given how slow Day 1 has been so far), or in how much a set votelist of people that didn't go with the plan might cause us.

Overall, it feels too much like a risky witch-hunt where we force people to die to Ceejay/Momslot or die to rope and hope we get lucky on minimal information. Getting scum D1 would be really nice, don't get me wrong, but if it fails it fails big-time here. I think it's just too big of a failing condition (losing an entire day) for too little payoff (having 1 less scum and 1 less town on day 4).

omg, this is clear-as-day town. let’s not lynch this no matter what

[ScumBeGone]

Something I've just thought about the neighbourhoods:
Because ceejay kills anyone who joins a PT with him, we should get the two scummiest people to buy the neighbour along with ceejay himself to get two extra effective lynches.

Heey. Just coming in to correct this.

Nothing bad actually happens to those who end up in a pt with me.

The only thing that would happen is I would have some explaining to do.

Hmm I wonder if I should roleclaim to straighten things out, since neighborhoods are looking important this game. That would likely get me lynched tho.

welcome ceejay!

when you get the chance, can you iso me and answer the question directed to the player you replaced in for —> momrangal?!

[ScumBeGone]

@randomidget, if you were given a million game dollars right now and had to invest them in the towniness of players so far, how would you split the investments?

let’s actually modify that in light of loopholes

@randomidget, same question BUT with knowledge that if more than $500,000 of the money is spent correctly, you win a special game power. additionally, with rules that you must spend money on at least 3 different players, and you can’t spend more than $500,000 on a single player.

assuming i can't put money on myself, 100k on everyone other than flubber and Not_Mafia
i really dont get scumreads on me here tbh based on the neighbourhood thing
why do i make a play that puts me as such an easy scumread?

ok, so let’s break this down using my memory of players in this game

[$100,000] —> ScumBeGone
[$100,000] —> MWNN’s slot
[$100,000] —> BulletNLynchproof
[$100,000] —> ceejayvinoya
[$100,000] —> Messiah Complex
[$100,000] —> Magik Horse
[$100,000] —> Myloninja13
[$100,000] —> who the hell am i forgetting? A: Mas y Menos
[$100,000] —> who the hell am i forgetting? A: Feysal
[$100,000] —> who the hell am i forgetting? A: NicoRobin

If you were in the forgotten section and i had to look you up, you probably haven’t produced no eye-popping content that i’ve seen yet - just saying.

so my major take from this is you found a loophole in my system and now you are exploiting it. the only hard stances you took were in not mafia and flubbernugget being least town in your eyes. so, while this may be a wise investment theoretically — i’d like to see you take some stances on some players being town. that’s one of the main ways you could potentially get me to reconsider who i vote out.

your defense there of yourself is negated by your inactivity since IMHO; sure - you might potentially make a splash for yourself as scum doing that, but there’s no way it’s inconceivable as scum would want to buy up all the neighborhoods for themselves —> can be very useful towards their wincon to manipulate through their usage of the neighborhoods. the fact that it would be worth it to make that kind of splash as scum makes it perfectly reasonable for you to be an early majority scumread.

[ceejayvinoya]

@momrangal, once you are able to attend to this game, i’d like you to answer these questions. which of the hydrae is most likely to flip town and why in your view? scum and why as well?

welcome ceejay!

when you get the chance, can you iso me and answer the question directed to the player you replaced in for —> momrangal?!

Hiiii

I'm townreading all hydras this game. Lols.

Most likely to flip town would be you

Most likely to flip scum would be Mas y Menos, tho that's only in a situation where one of you hydras has to be scum

[ceejayvinoya]

Ceejay, it's a question someone already asked to Nico, but if you did get stuck in a neighborhood what would you do with it?

I've never played a game with a neighborhood before so I'm kinda at a loss.

I guess the first thing would be to do a fullclaim on said neighborhood.

[Randomnamechange]

@randomidget, if you were given a million game dollars right now and had to invest them in the towniness of players so far, how would you split the investments?

let’s actually modify that in light of loopholes

@randomidget, same question BUT with knowledge that if more than $500,000 of the money is spent correctly, you win a special game power. additionally, with rules that you must spend money on at least 3 different players, and you can’t spend more than $500,000 on a single player.

assuming i can't put money on myself, 100k on everyone other than flubber and Not_Mafia
i really dont get scumreads on me here tbh based on the neighbourhood thing
why do i make a play that puts me as such an easy scumread?

ok, so let’s break this down using my memory of players in this game

[$100,000] —> ScumBeGone
[$100,000] —> MWNN’s slot
[$100,000] —> BulletNLynchproof
[$100,000] —> ceejayvinoya
[$100,000] —> Messiah Complex
[$100,000] —> Magik Horse
[$100,000] —> Myloninja13
[$100,000] —> who the hell am i forgetting? A: Mas y Menos
[$100,000] —> who the hell am i forgetting? A: Feysal
[$100,000] —> who the hell am i forgetting? A: NicoRobin

If you were in the forgotten section and i had to look you up, you probably haven’t produced no eye-popping content that i’ve seen yet - just saying.

so my major take from this is you found a loophole in my system and now you are exploiting it. the only hard stances you took were in not mafia and flubbernugget being least town in your eyes. so, while this may be a wise investment theoretically — i’d like to see you take some stances on some players being town. that’s one of the main ways you could potentially get me to reconsider who i vote out.

your defense there of yourself is negated by your inactivity since IMHO; sure - you might potentially make a splash for yourself as scum doing that, but there’s no way it’s inconceivable as scum would want to buy up all the neighborhoods for themselves —> can be very useful towards their wincon to manipulate through their usage of the neighborhoods. the fact that it would be worth it to make that kind of splash as scum makes it perfectly reasonable for you to be an early majority scumread.

my town reads are you. ceejay, magik and MyM
also @feysal i'm not directly selling them to other players which i only just realized is what people thought i was saying i literally return them and someone else buys them which makes much more sense

[BNL]

Random who are you most willing to sell a neighbourhood to right now?

Some players have expressed a townread on MyM, but I am not seeing it. Can those players explain?

[Randomnamechange]

whoever i'm townreading and wants them
this is what town menno and fb looks like. its a meta read largely

[MagikHorse]

whoever i'm townreading and wants them
this is what town menno and fb looks like. its a meta read largely

I'll probably look into a few games of theirs over the next few days as time allows around work and see if this is the case.

[Flubbernugget]

Something I've just thought about the neighbourhoods:
Because ceejay kills anyone who joins a PT with him, we should get the two scummiest people to buy the neighbour along with ceejay himself to get two extra effective lynches.

They'd be better used as vig shots imo

[Flubbernugget]

MagickHorse's analysis makes me skeptical on second thought.

However, if his math is correct, those numbers are good odds.

[Flubbernugget]

Oh, and then there's that. I am not fully caught up yet and am about to embark on a three hour drive. Be back soon ish

[ScumBeGone]

yoyoyo desp and ff

wanna hood together? we did well with it in the last game we played

yes yes 1000x yes

cool

cos I am taking the pple's remedial math class and I look at a number and I meltdown, its dma 025 IN CASE ANY! WAS WONDERING

why do you think y# is doing the heavy lifting

I am here

give me a chore where I don't have to think about numbers other than when this !@#$ is due