Mini 2039: uPicketyPicketyPick Mafia Endgame

[Not Known 15]

NK where's your vote at?

If there were no minigames ahead or we agreed to ignore them(which could be right) then I would have voted....
Nico Robin.

[Elbirn]

Why nico over kokichi?

[Elbirn]

And if you have time for a second question, why are kokichi + chibi not possible as scum buddies?

[Not Known 15]

Why nico over kokichi?

If Succinct is right then the POE for (two) scum is {me, Kokichi, Chibi, Nico}
I know that I am town.
But because I am town, it's very strange that Chibi didn't hammer me Night 1... instead voted Kokichi... if they are both scum.

[Succinct]

Kokichi is caught scum and we've managed to produce a townblock of 5. The PoE pool besides Kokichi is only 3 people and with a mislynch to spare we're headed towards a guaranteed victory.

While the PoE pool is four total players, I personally disagree with the idea Kokichi's caught scum.

Not Known 15, though?

That means... IF Succinct is town then the Mafia are Chibi, Kokichi(who lied with the IC claim) and Nico Robin.... let me check something... No there is something still wrong here.
ChibiBear and Kokichi Oma is an unlikely scenario. Either Succinct is lying or they were redirected or... or we have a godfather.
Because Nico+Kokichi/Chibi is entirely possible I cannot rule out Succinct being town and suffering from a godfather.
Succinct could also be mafia, and then all these clears are fake.

Seems fairly caught.

according to jjh i was removed on the turn of the second day rather than at night 1

Good. The inno result still counts for both you and Gamma then.

It should, yes.

[Elbirn]

Why nico over kokichi?

If Succinct is right then the POE for (two) scum is {me, Kokichi, Chibi, Nico}
I know that I am town.
But because I am town, it's very strange that Chibi didn't hammer me Night 1... instead voted Kokichi... if they are both scum.

I think this should have been in response to my second question?

@Succinct, kokichi lied about being an IC. That's a confirmed scum right there.

[Succinct]

@Succinct, kokichi lied about being an IC. That's a confirmed scum right there.

Kokichi claims IC in many games.
I knew it was a lie from moment I replaced in. It's nai.

[Elbirn]

Examples?

[Not Known 15]

Not Known 15, though?

That means... IF Succinct is town then the Mafia are Chibi, Kokichi(who lied with the IC claim) and Nico Robin.... let me check something... No there is something still wrong here.
ChibiBear and Kokichi Oma is an unlikely scenario. Either Succinct is lying or they were redirected or... or we have a godfather.
Because Nico+Kokichi/Chibi is entirely possible I cannot rule out Succinct being town and suffering from a godfather.
Succinct could also be mafia, and then all these clears are fake.

Seems fairly caught.

Succinct...
you claimed a role that could possibly clear 3 people Night ONE... and 2 each following night...
its Role Madness...multiple people have power roles(although not all have high power roles)...
and you rule out a godfather?
Bad idea. Balance-wise the Godfather is almost guranteed to exist. Don't forget - even with a godfather, unless there are two, you have a narrow POE for two scum.

[northsidegal]

Okay so barring Succinct being a Slumlord 4D chess master the game is solved with the scum team being

i sincerely doubt this is the case as much as i would enjoy for the game to be this simple

succint trying to lynch nico over kokichi today doesn't give me any confidence in that either

@Succinct, kokichi lied about being an IC. That's a confirmed scum right there.

Kokichi claims IC in many games.
I knew it was a lie from moment I replaced in. It's nai.

if kokichi is town lying about this then i have no reservations about policy lynching him.

[Not Known 15]

Personally I find Succinct's ignorance of a godfather possibility quite ... interesting, and scum-indicative. If I had a role that just

confirmed

5 people as town by Day 3... then I would be extremely cautious about godfathers. So maybe that role is just B S.

[Not Known 15]

... or they are of the mentality that you always ignore the possibility of godfathers until there is no other answer.

[mutantdevle]

That means... IF Succinct is town then the Mafia are Chibi, Kokichi(who lied with the IC claim) and Nico Robin.... let me check something... No there is something still wrong here.
ChibiBear and Kokichi Oma is an unlikely scenario. Either Succinct is lying or they were redirected or... or we have a godfather.
Because Nico+Kokichi/Chibi is entirely possible I cannot rule out Succinct being town and suffering from a godfather.
Succinct could also be mafia, and then all these clears are fake.

The current pool of mafia is you, Kokichi, Chibi and Nico. Obviously, from your point of view it would 100% the other 3. I don't care how unlikely a scenario you think something is, if it is mechanically so then your opinion is irrelevant. If you really think that the mafia team isn't Kokichi, Nico and Chibi then what you are telling me is that you yourself are one of the mafia.

Succinct being redirected was what they were concerned about originally, however, I was able to prove with 99% certainty that this was not the case. For Nibbui to have been redirected night 1 then a whole load of coincidences would have had to have taken place that are, in my opinion, beyond reasonable plausibility.

If succinct is actually mafia with this grand fakeclaim then I have a backup plan in place to expose them as such which doesn't require me to be alive. I don't wish to give any more details on this.

The only valid point you have raised here is that we've forgotten about the possibility of a godfather. That said, I don't think it matters too much as it will soon become apparent if the lynch pool is inaccurate. And, to be honest, your post here kinda seems like you're trying to discredit the townblock that has formed. If you're town then I don't so why you would do that as, although you may be lynched as part of the PoE pool, we'd win the game regardless of that. So I don't get what your problem is here?

[mutantdevle]

First of all, there is the possibility that I am the only town in the POE.... but I am pretty sure that I am not - due to reasons you won't buy(since they rely on me being town).
Second - there is no way that the mod lets a cop like this loose unchecked. That means that the claim is either fake or has a downside ... such as a Godfather.

If you have a mechanical reason to suggest that our PoE pool is wrong then you should sure as hell be claiming that.

And I think you seem to be overestimating the power of Succinct's claimed role. The role has only been this powerful due to luck as opposed to its inherent design.

[Not Known 15]

The only valid point you have raised here is that we've forgotten about the possibility of a godfather. That said, I don't think it matters too much as it will soon become apparent if the lynch pool is inaccurate. And, to be honest, your post here kinda seems like you're trying to discredit the townblock that has formed. If you're town then I don't so why you would do that as, although you may be lynched as part of the PoE pool, we'd win the game regardless of that. So I don't get what your problem is here?

The problem with the GF is obvious.
Let's assume Succinct is town. Then we need to mislynch twice to know that there is a godfather.
Two mislynches is game over.

[mutantdevle]

@Succinct, kokichi lied about being an IC. That's a confirmed scum right there.

Kokichi claims IC in many games.
I knew it was a lie from moment I replaced in. It's nai.

I also knew it was a lie but only based on the fact that it was a shit claim that had several holes in it. If claiming IC, in general, is something that Kokichi has done before several times as both scum and mafia then I'd be willing to accept that it's NAI but I strongly think that Kokichi is scum regardless and I've even explained to you why I'm unhappy with you trying to push the lynch away from Kokichi.

[mutantdevle]

you claimed a role that could possibly clear 3 people Night ONE... and 2 each following night...

This proves to me that you don't understand how the role works.

[Elbirn]

@NK15

Why nico over kokichi?

If Succinct is right then the POE for (two) scum is {me, Kokichi, Chibi, Nico}
I know that I am town.
But because I am town, it's very strange that Chibi didn't hammer me Night 1... instead voted Kokichi... if they are both scum.

I think this should have been in response to my second question?

@Succinct, kokichi lied about being an IC. That's a confirmed scum right there.

I'm still trying to get into your head, why vote nico over kokichi? What you posted doesnt really answer that question, it just posits that chibi and kokichi dont work as scumbuddies.

[Not Known 15]

And I think you seem to be overestimating the power of Succinct's claimed role. The role has only been this powerful due to luck as opposed to its inherent design.

No.
The likelyhood of a Night 1 triple Innocent is high enough(Gamma +2; and town are in the majority) in this setup.

[Not Known 15]

@NK15

Why nico over kokichi?

If Succinct is right then the POE for (two) scum is {me, Kokichi, Chibi, Nico}
I know that I am town.
But because I am town, it's very strange that Chibi didn't hammer me Night 1... instead voted Kokichi... if they are both scum.

I think this should have been in response to my second question?

@Succinct, kokichi lied about being an IC. That's a confirmed scum right there.

I'm still trying to get into your head, why vote nico over kokichi? What you posted doesnt really answer that question, it just posits that chibi and kokichi dont work as scumbuddies.

First:
Claimed miller.
Sketchy Governor lynch-avoidance on Night 1.
Avoided main topic while talking in the Gamma PT and refusing to engage there but still writing - very scummy.(I am one of the three people in that hood right now)
Second:
If Chibi and Kokichi aren't scum together...
and Succinct is town...(this is however not set in stone)
then Nico is just Mafia.

[NicoRobin]

And why can't they be scum together? Bussing is a thing.

[mutantdevle]

The likelyhood of a Night 1 triple Innocent is high enough(Gamma +2; and town are in the majority) in this setup.

10/13 chance Gamma is town * 9/12 chance the first person he adds is town * 8/11 chance that the second person he adds is town = 42% chance that everyone in the PT is town * 3/11 chance that Nibbui picked someone in the PT = 11% chance Nibbui got the result * 7/8 chance that Nibbui even lived to tell anyone = 9% chance that this could have happened. That's based on the information we know alone. There's obviously going to have been other things that could have reduced the chances this could have happened. Eg. the chances that the person selected is in multiple PTs.

[mutantdevle]

It's actually 10% but whatever.

[Not Known 15]

The likelyhood of a Night 1 triple Innocent is high enough(Gamma +2; and town are in the majority) in this setup.

10/13 chance Gamma is town * 9/12 chance the first person he adds is town * 8/11 chance that the second person he adds is town = 42% chance that everyone in the PT is town * 3/11 chance that Nibbui picked someone in the PT = 11% chance Nibbui got the result * 7/8 chance that Nibbui even lived to tell anyone = 9% chance that this could have happened. That's based on the information we know alone. There's obviously going to have been other things that could have reduced the chances this could have happened. Eg. the chances that the person selected is in multiple PTs.

and the possibility of people CLAIMING that PT before...(which actually happened in this game)
MASSIVELY increases the possibility...

[Succinct]

Examples?

Not worth digging up, as I'm willing to lynch there. (See my theory in PT.)

and you rule out a godfather?

I didn't. 3336 isn't an unreasonable stance.

I've even explained to you why I'm unhappy with you trying to push the lynch away from Kokichi.

And I've explained why I don't care about that. Kokichi's IC fakeclaim was nai, but Kokichi's in poe pool. I previously believed he was the most likely town of them (thus, was willing to lynch him but preferred elsewhere). However, my PT theory's changed my mind; now he's a preferred lynch.