Random Mafia Marathon [3/3] (Game Over!)

[Ausuka]

Ugh sorry I was trying to reaction test x.x I'll never do that gambit again.

Also ircher it's ok thanks for modding.

[Something_Smart]

Oh man, I thought the game was over when Ausuka claimed she was scum

Lol! This is why you always wait for the flip

[Ircher]

Oh man, I thought the game was over when Ausuka claimed she was scum

It's fine, but it's generally a good idea to wait for the moderator flip just in case. People may twilight troll you.

[Ircher]

day 1:
2/3 chance lynch town
1/3 chance lynch mafia

If lynch mafia:
1/2 chance of not killing flagbearer --> Town EV => 1/3 * 1/2 = 1/6

Else:

day 2 (ideally if I didn't design the setup improperly):
1/2 chance lynch town
1/2 chance lynch mafia

If lynch town, town loses.
If lynch mafia:
1/2 chance of not killing flagbearer --> Town EV => 2/3 * 1/2 * 1/2 = 2/12 = 1/6

Town EV = 1/6 + 1/6 => 33%
Mafia EV = 1/3 * 1/2 + 2/3 * 1/2 + 2/3 * 1/2 * 1/2 => 67%

[Ircher]

So it looks like if I were to have gotten the setup done correctly, the EV shifts the other way with the vengekill and flagbearer. Oh well.... With how the setup actually turned out, it may actually be 50% EV since town basically never gets lynched, so mafia is really banking on that vengekill. So maybe the setup error isn't as much of an error after all.

[Ircher]

Actually, I think the setup would be balanced at 50% EV (the way I intended it to be) with:

Town D1 Lynchproof

Town D1 Lynchproof Flagbearer

Mafia D1 Vengeful

[Rainn]

I think making the setup open would be easier, because flagbearer might innocently claim here and make mafia job easy peasy

[Rainn]

i think a big mistake that i see sometimes in some setups is that they don't count on what town actually does

like, for example, thinking that putting a miller balances a cop with a false guilty is just wrong practical assumption tbh

miller always claim d1 and cop checks elsewhere, and after cop claims miller even gains some credit

[Ircher]

Yeah, I kinda want the setup variant I posted in 105 to be like an official 3p open setup. I think it would be fun to have something besides Supersaint 3 and The One I Cannot Kill as possible 3p marathon open setups.

Edit: Also, that's exactly what happened. The flagbearer claimed early and the other townie claimed vanilla lynchproof, so yeah.